Tag Archives: Iran

AIPAC, Iran, nuclear Iran, U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Politics

An Iranian View of an Unsavory Las Vegas Tycoon………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

“Nearly one-third of anti-Iran pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran’s 2013 budget came from the country’s foremost Republican megadonor, a man who invested a reported $98 million to defeat Barack Obama in the 2012 election, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. Adelson routed his $500,000 donation to UANI through his family foundation, according to tax documents. Over the past six months, a number of unanswered questions have swirled around UANI. The Justice Department continues to shield information about the group’s internal workings from coming to light; the group hasn’t accounted for a mysterious funder who stands to profit from a confrontation with Iran…………”

Apparently the Iranians also believe that Sheldon Adelson is at it again: that he is funding a mysterious new anti-Iranian group. A major Iranian news site writes about the American right-wing moneybag Sheldon Adelson.

The conservative Las Vegas gambling tycoon and part-owner of many Republican Party politicians once fully owned Newt Gingrich during his hopeless attempt to start running for the party nomination in 2012. The site reports that Adelson is the largest contributor to the GOP and spent 98 million of his own money to defeat Barack Obama in 2012 (it was probably pure politics, not related to race).
Mr. Adelson, who reportedly has very close connections to the Israeli right-wing parties had publicly proposed once in 2013 that Mr. Obama should launch a nuclear attack on Iran. The Iranians remember that he was kind enough to specify a nuclear attack on “sparsely populated” areas of Iran.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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Cyber Security, cyber war, Cyber Wars, Internet, Iran, North Korea, U.S. Foreign Policy, Uncategorized, USA

From Stuxnet to Sony: CyberWar Chickens Coming Home to Roost?……….

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KuwaitCox2     ChristmasPeanuts

Have Yourself a Merry Little——-> Kenny G. Holiday 

There is a lot of media and official noise about the hacking of Sony documents. There are also threats of more damage to the company for producing a film spoof of Kim Jon Un of North Korea. There are claims that North Korea is responsible, being upset about the film. Maybe they didn’t get the famous haircut quite right in the film, or maybe it is the inevitable stupidity and silly thrust of the film.
Now there is much talk of the ‘terrible’ act of hacking and terrorism and how to respond. But wait: is hacking another country such a terrible act? A terrorist act? Weren’t the same media clinking glasses over the various cyber attacks on another country’s institutions only recently? Weren’t congressmen and women and senators going publicly orgasmic over the series of cyber attacks on official Iranian websites? Reportedly, strongly and deliberately and proudly disclosed by the usual unnamed sources to be the joint work of Israeli and American experts.

I commented several times in my postings on this cyber aggression, from Stuxnet to Duque to Flame and other malware, allegedly targeting the Iranian nuclear program and possibly other infrastructure. I even opined that “Live by Cyber war, Die by Cyber War“. I even wrote something about “cyber chickens coming home to roost“. And apparently they are starting now. This alleged North Korean attack and other allegedly Iranian cyber attacks in the past year. I have also written that cyber battles and cyber wars are equalizers: they are relatively cheap and any nation can excel in waging them.
Cyber counterattacks can be understandable, for they are done in retaliation for other cyber attacks. It happens. What irks me is the fact that American theatres have caved in to blackmail and fear and decided not to show the stupid film, The Interview. As has Sony now in deciding to “withdraw” the film, which makes one wonder what more information did the hackers get their hands on.

That reaction is an even more serious development: it means other hackers will be able to blackmail publishers, film-makers, and other cultural parties. Thus curtailing the right of free expression. Thus imposing a piece of the ‘political ambience’ of North Korea or wherever the hell they are located into the United States and other countries.

Cyber Wars as Great Equalizers: Tit for Tat?………

Cyber Jingoism: CyberSecurity, Cyber Wars, and the New Cyber Powers………

Cyber Wars: Malware, Mahdi, and Hail Mary in Iran and Israel……

Israel and the West: only Arab and Muslim Hacking is Terrorism, Ours is Kosher……
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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Economics, GCC, OPEC, Saudi Arabia

Crude Oil Price as a Two-Edged Sword for the GCC……….

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KuwaitCox2     ChristmasPeanuts

Have Yourself a Merry Little——-> Kenny G. Holiday 

“Additionally, the Saudis get a chance to deal Russia, Bashar al-Assad’s stalwart ally, a bloody nose, by driving down the cost of oil and hurting Moscow’s hydrocarbon revenue streams, which prop up a shaky domestic economy. As oil prices have fallen so has the value of Russia’s Rouble, plummeting 35% since June. Killing two birds with one stone would seem a smart policy, especially since it is highly unlikely to result in the sort of military escalation the Saudis wish to avoid. How long can the Saudis keep this game up? Realistically a few months, but if the price of oil keeps falling the Saudis may have to rethink their strategy……………”

Oil prices normally rise during times of economic growth in the USA and especially during periods of geopolitical turmoil as is happening in Eastern Europe and across the Middle East and Libya. But oil prices have been going down for some time now in spite of speeding US growth and turmoil in producing regions.

Some have predicted that the oil price decline may come to bite those who engineered them for political reasons, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It was also argued that the Persian Gulf Arab producers have huge sovereign funds that can cushion the domestic economic impact.
Fine and dandy, but we must consider the impact on the sovereign funds and on local GCC Gulf financial markets and on the public finances: (a) The Gulf sovereign funds are invested mainly in the world markets and are losing value as American and other markets decline with the price of crude; (b) Domestic GCC markets are now also tanking, from Saudi Arabia to Dubai, which will bring political pressure on the princes, shaikhs and potentates to support the stock markets. Many middle class families in the GCC are suffering huge market losses, estimated in many billions of dollars. In the Gulf, princes and potentates from Abu Dhabi to Riyadh rely on patronage as well as a ruthless mercenary security apparatus to keep absolute political power. Now there will be clamor for some more patronage to help market investors: you want to keep absolute political power, you gotta pay for it (from the people’s money, of course). Which in turn will create more pressure on the domestic budgets and on the value of sovereign funds.

In addition, now the oil price decline is beginning to be seen as a negative for the US economy. Odd, after decades of blaming the rise of the same variable for slow growth.
Given the shale fuel industry and the huge investments in it, as well as the importance of the major oil companies and their credit standing, the US economy now shares one thing with the Iranian and Russian economies. Some market ‘analysts’ now stress that the U.S. financial markets need oil prices to move up for the markets to rebound from recent losses. But does Main Street America need high oil prices back? That is unlikely.

Interesting: the USA, Iran, and Russia all ‘need’ higher oil and gas prices now. 
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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Blockade of Iran, Caliphate, Iran, Weapons deals

Western Weapons Sanctions: Unintended Long-Term Consequences………

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Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter   KuwaitCox2

“It is a tribute to Iranian ingenuity that Iran has been able to keep the planes flying, given US sanctions in place since 1979. The Iranians have done so by a combination of smuggling – using shadow companies to buy parts – and cannibalising parts from civil aircraft. They have also engaged in reverse engineering, though this seldom produces a perfect match, resulting in weaker parts. Justin Bronk, a research analyst in the military science programme at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said of the plane spotted over Iraq: “This is the equivalent of a late Vietnam-era F-4 Phantom D or E variants. We do not know which one.” Bronk, who specialises in combat air power, added: “It is extremely impressive that the Iranians have kept this airworthiness given the ban on spare parts. The Iranian aerospace industry is one of the best in the world in keeping old aircraft airworthy.”…………”

For some reason they can’t seem to get more modern warplanes from their Chinese and Russian allies. Or maybe the mullahs are just as attached to old American jets as the Shah was to new ones.

In any case, they have managed to improvise and build up their technical skills and weapons industries. Necessity is truly the mother of invention, and a fount of new research, technical skill, and knowledge. If and when the American-European blockade is lifted, they will probably find themselves with a robust domestic weapons and space industry that can only be rivaled by the Israelis.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

[email protected]

AIPAC, Iran, Israel, US Congress

How Far Will AIPAC Want the U.S. to Go on Iran?………

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Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter   KuwaitCox2

“The powerful pro-Israel lobby AIPAC is urging a dramatic escalation in sanctions on Iran in response to a recent seven-month extension of nuclear talks. It also seeks a US ban on Iranian oil exports worldwide and more Iranian industries blacklisted…………”

No doubt a majority in the Knesset Congress and Senate will immediately bow and push for this. They have been at it on a bipartisan basis since at least early 2009. Some of them have been at it even before AIPAC went public with its demands, pushing poison pill clauses in some congressional resolutions and measures, with the aim of dragging the USA into yet another regional war.
Tightening a unilateral blockade that other countries are forced to observe, courtesy of AIPAC.

I am beginning to suspect that if AIPAC (the right-wing Israeli lobby) some day demands that Iran be hit with nuclear weapons, a shocking number of legislators in Washington may start talking seriously about it. I am almost not being facetious here.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

[email protected]

Caliphate, Iran, Iraq, U.S. Foreign Policy, US Foreign Policy

Across Iraqi Skies: Tactical Partners, Strategic Rivals……….

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Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter   KuwaitCox2

“The official said he could only confirm reports of the bombing on the condition of anonymity. While previous reports have said that Iran has provided weapons and equipment to the Iraqi government, the official’s comments represent the first confirmation that Iran’s own air force is involved in the fight in Iraq against the Islamic State. The fact that the U.S. is not challenging this level of Iranian involvement is the strongest evidence yet that the Obama administration sees the Iranian government as a tactical partner………….”

Imagine that: tactical allies. Even if they are strategic rivals to the point where one is trying hard to choke the other with an economic blockade. It is enough to give some of the jingoistic senators and assorted gunboat warhawks, think tank chickenhawks, and others of their ilk acute and permanent cases of erectile dysfunction. And well-deserved, too.

How can they be challenged across Iraqi skies unless the Iraqi government agrees to it? Since, technically, all these foreign warplanes and whatever boots are on the ground are presumably guests invited by Iraq. Technically, at least…………

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

[email protected]

 

Iran, Iraq, Syria

Iran in Iraq and Syria: an Unexpected Criticism………

Thanksgiving4
Happy gobblegobble, Charlie Brown……

Arab media are reporting an interesting development about Iranian relations with Iraq and Syria. They are reporting that a counselor in the Iranian foreign ministry has publicly (sort of publicly, allegedly to a minor media outlet) criticized former Iraqi PM Al Maliki and Syrian president Bashar Al Assad for the worsening mess in their countries. He reportedly blames Al Maliki for aiding the growth of ISIS (DAESH) and blames Al Assad for the worsening bloodshed. I am not sure if the media are quoting him correctly since I have not yet seen his original comments. Al Maliki is now a vice president of Iraq, and Al Assad is still the president of Syria (most of it, anyway).

This could hint at a significant Iranian policy shift or it could be just a personal comment that will then have to be refuted by other officials. But it is almost certainly credible. Time will tell, and soon.

He is also reported by Iranian sources as saying that ISIS (they call it by the Arabic acronym: DAESH) will weaken but will not vanish.

P.S.: (I have always believed and written that the original Syrian uprising went Jihadist as soon as the Islamists of the Gulf states started to send money, weapons, and Wahhabi volunteers. With the blessings of Turkish Caliph Erdogan the First. As for Iraq, deepening internal sectarianism, corrupt domestic politics, and foreign Arab meddling worsened a situation that had emerged after the first post-invasion elections.)
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Caliphate, Iran, Israel, nuclear Iran, Sanctions, U.S. Foreign Policy

Nuclear Delay in Vienna: Read My Lips, No New Sanctions……….

Thanksgiving4
Happy gobblegobble, Charlie Brown……

“Read My Lips, No New Sanctions…………” Rouhani? Khamenei? Me?

So, it is to be more jaw-jaw and no new sanctions. Remember that war that was among the options of the mantra of “all options are on the table“? It never was, not seriously.

As it happened, the deadline was extended until next July. That is not necessarily good, especially since Benyamin Netnayahu welcomed it as he waits for the newly-elected U.S. Knesset Congress in January to screw things up. But it is better than posturing and making noises about an unlikely war that few outside Israel and a couple of absolute Arab monarchies and the Islamic Caliphate of ISIS want.

The downside of all that is that we will have to hear more weekly (even daily) whining from Mr. Netanyahu about the imminence of an Iranian nuclear bomb. The one he and some American war pedlars have been predicting for twenty years. An alleged bomb which apparently can destroy only the Jewish people in Tel Aviv and the settlements but miraculously spare all those Muslims/Christians and Holy places in Jerusalem or Nazareth or Hebron.

There is a world dichotomy about these serious but not-very-credible claims. American media usually eats up whatever he dishes out, been doing it for twenty years. After all, he is a celebrity (as in Bibi!). European media is mostly skeptical about him, to put it nicely and politely. Muslim and Arab public opinion is overwhelmingly hostile to whatever he claims, with the exception of some pockets in and around the Persian Gulf royal palaces and possibly the harem rooms of the Wahhabi Caliphate of ISIS.

The game of chess goes on. The coming year should be interesting times, as some Chinese are alleged to have said. And not only in Washington………
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

[email protected]

Blockade of Iran, Iran, Khamenei, Middle East Nuclear, nuclear Iran

Nuclear Iran: Israeli-Western Narrative and the Khamenei Narrative……..

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Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter   KuwaitCox2

“Such a compromise would fall well short of the maximalist demands of Iranian hardliners, including the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who continue to believe that Iran should have a nuclear-weapons option, if not the bomb itself. It would also provoke outrage among sceptical members of America’s Congress and Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, who insist that Iran’s record of cheating means it should have no enrichment programme at all. But that is the nature of compromises; neither side will get all it seeks……………”

The Economist narrative seems to have been taken straight from the mouth of Benyamin Netanyahu. Yet how do they presume to know the mind of Khamenei? To know what Khamenei thinks? They seem to quote him without actually quoting him: a neat journalistic trick (we bloggers also use it). Let us see what Khamenei has said publicly on Twitter (and let’s assume that he means it):
@khamenei_ir:
“Iran considers the use of WMDs as an unforgivable sin. Nuclear energy for all and nukes for none”
“We consider the use of WMDs as Haraam; we believe that it is everyone’s duty to secure humanity against this great evil.”  4/17/2010
“Islamic Republic of Iran considers the use of nuclear, chemical and similar weapons as a great and unforgivable sin.” 8/30/12
“Iranian nation is a victim of the use of CWs. That is why Iran is ready to counter WMDs by all its means. ” 

All sides in this argument dissemble (lie) about the nuclear issue. We know for certain that Mr. Netanyahu dissembles (okay, lies) regularly, almost everybody knows that. For twenty years he has been predicting an Iranian breakthrough to “the bomb” within ‘six months or a year’. He has slowed down now, for he used to do his predictions almost every two weeks. The West also dissembles in its claim that its focus is solely on the Iranian nuclear program. We know that is not true: there are regional strategic factors involved that have pushed the economic blockade, especially for the U.S. administrations. And not just the Israeli position or the pressures for war from some Arab princes and potentates (check Wikileaks cables).

As for Iranian officials, some of them would like to have “the bomb” and to have an excuse to clamp down even more on dissent and to block potential Western cultural influences. Toward that target they would be happy to scuttle the talks. As would many politicians in the United States and most if not all of the political and media elites in Israel.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Arab Politics, Caliphate, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria

The ISIS Plot? What about the ISIS Plot? ………..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter   KuwaitCox2

Speaking of ISIS and the blame for its resurgence last summer. Other Middle East media have claimed that the whole ISIS surge was engineered by the Americans in order to get their forces back into Iraq through the window, after being forced to leave through the door in 2011. This recent piece here is one example. All this was supposedly done with Saudi help among some Al Anbar tribes that sided with the terrorists. The alleged goal of the plot is to reduce Iranian (and Shi’a) influence in Baghdad and increase Saudi (and Wahhabi) influence in Iraq and Syria, to start with. Thus alter the strategic balance in the Eastern Mediterranean, something Israel and the Al Saud have failed to do after years of trying. Many more Arabs believe this theory than we hear or read about in the media.

I am not normally a conspiracy theory advocate, but I did dabble in the topic. I did speculate along these lines somewhere last summer. Either in a post or on Twitter, I forget. I noted the timing during a period of government change in Iraq. It sounds plausible although farfetched, given the polluted poisoned Washington air. Possible if not necessarily probable, but it is too simplistic: it assumes the other side will not counteract.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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