Category Archives: Saudi Arabia

Persian Gulf Game Theory at Camp David: Obama and State-Sponsored Terrorism……..

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“US President Barack Obama has labeled Iran a “state sponsor of terrorism” and countries in the Gulf region have a right to be concerned about Tehran’s activities. The move comes less than three months after Iran was taken off a US terror list………..”

On the eve of his ill-advised Camp David summit with the kings, princes, and potentates of the GCC, Mr. Obama feels the need to placate his guests. Or so he has been told.

Mr. Obama surprised many today by dusting up and reusing the old T-for-Terrorism word about Iran. No doubt that is how he was advised by some advisers steeped in the nuances of Persian Gulf Game Theory. He is trying to placate the Gulf kings, princes, and potentates some of whom are frustrated that they may not get what they feel they are entitled to. They, his guests, are playing the old game, showing more anger than they feel. A bargaining chip, but hopefully he knows that.

Speaking of state-sponsored terrorism: it is time to lay that silly term to rest as a derogatory term. Almost every state sponsors its own favorite groups of terrorists, whether at home or abroad. As the saying goes: almost “everybody does it”.

You’d think all the ideology, money, weapons, and volunteers for Al Qaeda, ISIS, DAESH, Nusra Front and others have come from Shi’a Iran. Not from Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Persian Gulf Salafis. You’d think Iranians planned and financed and executed the attack on the USS Cole and then on the United States on September 11, 2001 (FYI: Saddam was not involved either, in spite of what Dick Cheney says). You’d think it is Iranian warplanes raining death and destruction over impoverished Yemen and its people. You’d think……………

Coincidentally, it may get the Republican warmongers in the Senate (McCain, Graham, et al) off his back for a day or two.


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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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Camp David and the Nusra Front Expose the Saudi Inferiority Complex……..

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The media punditry and noise about the upcoming Gulf GCC summit with President Obama at Camp David have exposed certain facts about Saudi Arabia and its relations and aspirations within the region. They have exposed a deep inferiority complex and dangerous insecurity that have exacerbated instability in the Middle East. Just look at the mess that Syria and Iraq and Yemen have become. Let us look at the few countries that the Saudis feel threatened by and create this inferiority complex:
Iran: has some 77 million native people, a diverse economy that has withstood the Western blockade for decades, despite economic mismanagement by the mullahs and lower (deliberately engineered) petroleum prices. It is relatively highly advanced in technology: nuclear and space and medical as well as other industries, probably partly a result of a self reliance forced by the blockade.
Iraq: some 30 million (now), multi-cultural with huge untapped petroleum reserves, and a diverse economy.
Egypt: some 80 million people, a potentially diverse economy and dormant technical knowledge.
Yemen: even poor Yemen has a larger population than Saudi Arabia (26 million citizens against some 16 million Saudi citizens). And an interesting ancient history.
Turkey: a relatively new state with a short history by Middle East standards, but a diverse economy and a gateway to Europe. If only the Caliph Erdogan would stop supporting Jihadi cutthroats in Arab politics.
(Israel: the outlier in the group, but militarily powerful and technically the most advanced in the Middle East. They don’t worry about it because it is non-Islamic non-Arab and hence not a rival; besides, it is either a real or a potential ally against the others).

All these countries have a long history of settled civilization, some of the oldest in the world (with the exception of Turkey).


Is it any wonder the Saudis feel insecure, when they have to rely on foreign labor and foreign products and imported mercenaries to such an extent? When the princes have to pay Sudanese and Moroccans and Senegalese to fight their wars, even against impoverished Yemen? Now they are supreme within the small club of the Gulf GCC. They are assured to remain the largest state, the big man in the club. That is why they will never accept any new members, rivals that are larger and/or more advanced. That is why they will try to make sure other larger states in the region, real and potential rivals, remain distant and weak.
That is why they do the voodoo that they do: try to keep the Western blockade on Iran, keep Egypt weak and politically divided and subservient, try to keep Iraq divided, try in vain to get and keep control of Yemen.

That is why they introduced their strongest strategic weapon so far: politicized modern Islamic sectarianism. They have (re)introduced it into the region and use it extensively to divide and weaken their rivals and maintain their power at home. The alleged Sunni-Shi’a war is in reality an attempt to extend the Wahhabi war on other Islamic sects, on other faiths.
What are ISIS and Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and AQAP and the rest of the intolerant Jihadi gangs but Wahhabism taken literally to its extreme? Speaking of which: reports now tell us that Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Turkey are backing Al Nusra Front in Syria, the certified approved Al Qaeda franchise in that country. Anything for the appearance of an elusive victory on their rivals.

Gulf GCC Comes to Camp David: the Addled, the Wretched, and Emma Lazarus………

Phony Arab Fear of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Catharsis and Kumbaya at Camp David………

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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Operation Failed Storm: Frustrated Saudis Seek to Flatten Saada………..

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“Saudi-led forces warned civilians that Yemen’s Saada province would be a military target as of Friday evening, Saudi state television Al Ekhbariya reported. The leadership of the coalition asked all civilians to leave the province, a stronghold of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, by 7 pm local time, the station said. Saudi Arabia said Thursday it would respond forcefully to cross-border Houthi attacks that started on Tuesday, and has targeted the province with air strikes since then………….”

The Saudi princes have declared all of Saada a target, all of the region a free-fire zone. They’ve asked the residents of the region to leave, go elsewhere, but not to Saudi Arabia. Expect missiles, bombs, and Western cluster munitions to carpet the region. That is the home region of the Houthis who seem to be giving the princes another bloody nose. A clear sign of deep frustration by the planners of Operation Failed Storm.

It looks like Yemenis are neither shocked nor awed with the most advanced most-expensive Western weapons thrown at them by the Saudis. Weeks into the bombing campaign, with the threat of a land invasion by hired African mercenaries (from Senegal, Sudan, and Egypt), the lightly-armed Houthis have had enough. They struck at Najran, a north Yemeni area occupied by Saudi Arabia during the last century. It shows how vulnerable the border region is that the Saudis were forced to close schools and airports in the area. Almost a replay o the 2009 war when the Saudis thought they had a cakewalk into Northern Yemen and were disappointed.

Now, in princely frustration, they are having a royal fit, they are seeking to flatten the Saada homeland of the pesky Houthis. They have said as much. The problem with such saturation bombing is that the  marginal effect declines as the bombing continues (we call it diminishing marginal return in economics) . It is the (North) Vietnam syndrome: the more they were bombed, the less likely they were to give up. It is unlikely the Houthis will travel to Riyadh any time soon to kiss and make up with their attackers.

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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Nusra Front: Are the Princes Bringing Al Qaeda Back in From the Cold?………

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Speaking of my last post on Middle East media control and its influence on Western policies. Perhaps the biggest success of the Saudi-Qatari massive media has been in Syria. They have done the unforeseen: they have managed to smooth out the transition to open support of Al Qaeda in Syria without much audible American complaint. I mean Al Nusra Front is a true-blue terrorist cutthroat group, it is the legitimate chosen local franchise of Al Qaeda, the same Al Qaeda which attacked the United States in New York, Washington, Pennsylvania, and Port of Aden (Yemen). Now the Saudi-Qatari axis, plus the Turks, are supporting and supplying the Jihadi groups in Syria with American weapons, and what else is new? With the alleged exception of the Caliphate of ISIS: but ISIS has been supplied and armed and enabled by the same suspects for several years.

When this topic was publicized in the media last February, there was some thinking that they will try to reset the favorite Syrian group of Arab quasi-liberals and Wahhabi-liberals- the Free Syrian salafi Army- the FSA. But now it is clear that they are trying to rehabilitate the Al Nusra Front of Al Qaeda and its allies. Which indicates that it is true: it is the same old trick tried in Iraq and Syria.  It isn’t easy to teach an old dog new tricks. You can’t teach an old Wahhabi (Saudi and Qatari) or Muslim Brotherhood (Turkish), both old dogs, new tricks.

That may also be going on for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula-AQAP. Saudi air strikes in Yemen have reportedly left the AQAP territory and operations deliberately intact. I have posted on this possibility of bringing Al Qaeda in from the cold some years ago, once the Jihadi violence in Iraq escalated. Is this following the age-old rephrase of the idea that “Me and My Fellow Wahhabi Against the Houthi“? And where does that leave the major indispensable Western ally?


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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Unequal Media Wars, Proxy Wars in the Middle East……….

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The Saudi Wahhabi opposition (Mujtahidd and others who support ISIS) recently claimed that the new defense minister Mohammed Bin Salman, the crown prince to the crown prince, has ‘purchased’ a hundred thousand Twitter accounts, possibly other social media as well. That he plans to hire many security workers to man them and use them. It claims he plans to use them to build up himself in the media. That is not new, some of the top potentates, as well as the most vociferous fundamentalists now ‘own’ millions of followers. 

Anyway, right now the media wars for the West are being won by the Arab princes. Hands down. When it comes to media control and public opinion, billions of dollars make a big difference, especially in influencing Western opinion (but not so much non-Gulf Arab opinion). That is why the Saudi and Qatari potentates have spent billions acquiring existing major traditional Arab media outlets and establishing new ones. From Asharq Alawsat (owned by King Salman) to Al-Hayat (owned by prince Khaled Bin Sultan) to Alarabiya (Saudi royal in-law) to Al-Jazeera and Al-Quds Al-Arabi (Qatari royals) to Middle East Online (UAE) to Al-Arab (owned by Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal but searching for a home outside the Gulf after being ejected from Bahrain), to LBC, among others. And many others.

Now major Western outlets and news agencies often grab anything headlined by Saudi and Qatari networks and magnify them as ‘truths’. By the time they are bounced around the globe and return to where they started from, they ‘are’ quoted as ‘the truth’. A neat trick. It is like the claim that in Yemen, ‘loyalists’ to deposed president Hadi Al Zombie (actually mostly Southern Independence and AQAP) are fighting the Houthi-Saleh alliance on his behalf. Or the myth that Yemen’s war is a proxy war between saudi Arabia and Iran: except that it is the Saudis who are directly bombing Yemen (no proxies there) with Western munitions including cluster bombs. There are no proxies there now, unless the rented Sudanese and Senegalese and Egyptian troops land in Yemen. But then some clever reader might ask: and who are the Saudis acting as proxies for?

Initially the Houthis were not Iranian proxies or allies either: they had their own agenda. Colonel Saleh certainly is not: he was a close Saudi ally for years, even though he is a Zaidi, (or Shi’a) as Western media keep mentioning. But now the Houthis have moved closer to the Iranians for practical reasons, so they are Iranian-backed, but it is still farfetched to call them proxies or stooges.

Yet references to the legend of ‘proxy’ wars in Yemen and Syria continue in the media………

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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Yemeni Monolog of the Walking Dead: Hadi’s Political Masturbation in Riyadh……….

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The deposed and exiled former president of Yemen Hadi has come out publicly and announced May 17 for the start of a “dialog” on Yemen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He even almost looked official, almost serious, in the media photos.

There will be no dialog on Yemen in Riyadh. Hadi will not have the two most powerful men in Yemen to talk with: neither Houthi nor the deposed Saleh will show up. Nor the powerful Southern Independence movement, whose leaders supported the Saudi bombing and cluster munition attacks on (North) Yemen when they were mostly done over Sanaa and Saada. Nor the Al Qaeda AQAP that now controls more territory as a result of the Saudi bombing campaign.

I immediately suggested that the only “dialog” will be between Mr. Hadi and Mr. Hadi, i.e. himself. A sort of vocal political masturbation for the former runaway president. I also suggested he could install a large mirror so that he can look himself in the eyes and launch his monolog, pretending he is actually in a dialog with other than his Saudi hosts and masters.

Two things have been clear to me for at least six weeks now: (1) Abdrabuh Hadi (Al Zombie) is a walking dead politically: he will never return to Sanaa, nor will he ever rule any part of Yemen; (2) there will be no dialog in Riyadh with his participation or that of his foreign minister Yassin who has been urging more Saudi bombing of the Yemeni people. Even Mr. Bahah has almost crossed that line with his moving closer to the position of the Saudi masters.

Which means that any “dialog” on Yemen can only be held in some non-GCC country. With the possible exception of Oman which wisely avoided getting involved in this Foolish Storm over Yemen. And under the supervision of some international figure (LOL no, not Tony Blair)

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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Phony Arab Fear of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Catharsis and Kumbaya at Camp David………

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“The Obama administration is scrambling for reassurances it can present this month at a Camp David summit meeting to persuade Arab allies that the United States has their backs, despite a pending nuclear deal with Iran. Officials at the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department have been meeting to discuss everything from joint training missions for American and Arab militaries to additional weapons sales to a loose defense pact that could signal that the United States would back those allies if they come under attack from Iran. Over mahi-mahi at the Pentagon two weeks ago, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter polled a select group of Middle East experts for advice on how the administration could placate Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, all of which fear the nuclear deal, according to several attendees………………..”

First (of all): it is not an “Arab” fear of the nuclear deal. Ask most Arabs from Baghdad through Amman to Algiers and Tetouan, ask 250 million of them and they will not express any fear of this deal. Arabs have lived with a nuclear and aggressive Israel for decades without expressing any fear of it either.

Second: a part of the small minority of all Arab who live on the Persian-American Gulf express disapproval of the nuclear deal (not counting the majority of the population who are South Asian expat laborers). Many of them don’t know its details and look at it from a sectarian view and in some cases whatever their government propaganda tell them.

Third: the rulers of the GCC Gulf states are not afraid of the “nuclear” deal either. They are worried about expanding Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria and Lebanon, and potentially in Yemen. A legitimate worry. Only about three of them (only about three regimes) are also afraid of lifting the Western blockade from the Iranian people which will strengthen their economy.

Fourth: These three (or four) regimes are pretending to be afraid of a nuclear deal only as a bargaining chip: the same position as Benyamin Netanyahu takes. The last time Iran attacked a neighbor was almost three hundred years ago. When was the last time Iran was attacked by a neighbor? In 1980, by Baathist Iraq with active help from others in the neighborhood. The Baathists used WMD in that war.

Fifth: the mullahs don’t directly attack a neighbor, unlike Baathist Iraq (attacked Iran and Kuwait), unlike Saudi Arabia (attacked Yemen at least three times: 1930s, 2009, 2015 and attacked Kuwait once in 1920). Even so, the Persian-American Gulf is clogged with powerful Western navies that can deter any conventional attack.

Sixth: Even if we ‘buy’ the claims about Iran’s nuclear program. When was the last time a country used nuclear weapons in ts own neighborhood? Is there a regime so stupid as to contemplate doing that, across its border? Are there regimes audacious enough to use it as an excuse to keep an economic blockade on a neighbor?

No doubt Mr. Obama knows all this, or he should know it when he sits down with his guests. Which also makes one wonder: why not also invite Netanyahu to Camp David, since he claims the same worries and concerns? Then Mr. Obama can have his catharsis with both. It should be fun: Likudniks and antisemitic Wahhabis singing Kumbaya at the camp. 

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Queen Balqis Resists the Wisdom and Charm of King Solomon in Yemen………

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“It may be that King Salman of Saudi Arabia and his younger son Mohammad, who is defence minister and chief of the royal court, saw the war in Yemen as a way of securing their power and removing rival factions in the royal family from power. On his throne for only a few months, King Salman has been taking a harder line in the Saudi confrontation with Iran and the Shia. He has not only started an air war in Yemen but has given stronger backing to Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qa’ida affiliate, and other jihadi groups in Syria. These have recently won several victories in Idlib province over the Syrian army and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. A problem in ending the war in Yemen is that it will be difficult for King Salman to come out of it without a success if he wishes to avoid damage to his prestige at the start of his reign. At the same time, Saudi Arabia does not appear to have a plan other than the total defeat of the Houthis and their allies, something that is unlikely to happen…………”

The American bombs, delivered by the Saudis, have been falling for over six weeks, to no avail. Except the continued destruction of the fragile infrastructure of Yemen and the increased misery of its people.

So far there has been not a sign of Brig. Qassem Soleimani in Sanaa or Aden. Not a single Iranian has been seen, apprehended, or photographed anywhere in Yemen. As I noted once “not a soldier, Revolutionary Guard, or bricklayer“. So much for the claims, and the excuse, of “Iranian incursion” in Yemen. Al Qaeda and the Southern Independence Movement (Hirak) and ISIS (Islamic State) are now the only opponents of the Houthi-Saleh alliance. The IS have made their presence felt, but they have been reduced to beheading and shooting other Yemenis since they could not find any Iranians, nor could they find any of the Iraqis or Lebanese that Gulf Salafis and Wahhabi-Liberals claim are all over the region.

This time the wisdom of King Solomon has failed, so far, in bringing the Yemeni Queen Balqis, Queen of Sheba to her knees (forgive the irresistible pun). That is unlikely to change in modern Yemen: the rugged Houthis, northern country folks that they are, are well experienced in fighting superior forces and frustrating them.
So far. But the Saudis have deep pockets, and their Western suppliers are willing to replenish the bombs, for a price……..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Saudi Dynasty Wars: Jack, Piggy, Ralph, and Lord of the Flies in Arabia………

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“Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz has fired his chosen successor, reportedly over his opposition to the Saudi-led military campaign against Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen. Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, the crown prince and deputy prime minister, was replaced by the king’s nephew as part of a broader shakeup. On Tuesday, the Saudi-led coalition struck the international airport in the Yemeni capital Sana’a, damaging the main runway, to prevent the landing of an Iranian plane, which Iran said carried food and medicine……………….”

Saudi dynasty wars will continue, and they will erupt periodically into an open power struggle, as happened this week. That is how things turn out in the absence of institutional rule.

Saudi King Salman issued an unexpected order deposing Crown Prince Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz. The relatively young Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef was moved up to Crown Prince. Defense Minister and Son of the King Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (reported to be in his upper twenties) was promoted to Crown Prince to the Crown Prince. As usual, Prince Talal Bin Abdulaziz refused to accept the power shift, as apparently did his son Al-Waleed, as reportedly did a bunch of other senior princes.

Some speculated that Prince Muqrin had opposed the bombing attacks on Yemen, while others in Arab media attributed that position to his mother being from Yemen. In addition the King Faisal branch of the royal family was removed from positions of power, starting with long-serving foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal (forty years on the job). The Prince Sultan branch has already been mostly removed, including Bandar and Khaled. The only “outsider” prince to remain in a position of power is Me’eb (or Mut’eb) Bin Abdullah, son of the late king who inherited the powerful National Guard armed forces from his father. There is speculation that he will be on his way out soon.

The Saudis have also moved across the region. They have now allied with Turkey and fellow-Wahhabi Qatar to support the Syrian Al Qaeda franchise Al Nusra Front and other allied Jihadis in Syria. They have continued a relentless bombing campaign on Yemen, which has caused more than a thousand deaths and destroyed much of that poor country’s infrastructure. The war is now in its second month, and it has failed to bring the Houthi-Saleh alliance to heel. They are still expanding their holdings on the ground in the south around Aden, after having largely secured the northern part of Yemen. So far only the Southern Independence Movement and AQAP and a few tribal elements oppose them. So far the Yemen strategy, whatever it is, has failed.

King Salman is not as dumb as he was pictured by some of the opposition: he followed up his ‘palace coup’ with a huge bribe to those that count. He ordered a bonus of one month’s extra salary to be paid to all members of the Saudi security forces and armed forces.

Back in Riyadh: Ralph, Piggy, Simon, Jack, and the Littluns of Arabia are locked in a power struggle…….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al Qaeda Front of Syria Returns to its Wahhabi Roots, No LOL……..

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“Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate and its allies seized the last major government-held city in Idlib province on Saturday, in a blow that could expose the regime’s coastal heartland to rebel attack. The capture of Jisr al-Shughur in the northwestern province comes nearly a month after the same coalition of opposition forces, known as the “Army of Conquest,” overran the provincial capital. The city’s fall opens up a strategic assault route for the rebels to neighbouring Latakia province on the Mediterranean coast, a bastion of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, analysts said……… The jihadists hailed victory on their official Twitter account, claiming that “The mujahideen have entered the city centre. The city has been liberated,” Al-Nusra said…………….”

Al Nusra Front has refused to severe its ties with Al Qaeda, but that has not prevented America’s closest Middle East allies from throwing their lot with it. There have been credible reports over the past few weeks that the Saudis, Qataris, and Turkish potentates have given up on the other Syrian opposition groups. They have decided, at least for now, to support the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria as the only group that can give the Assad regime (and its Iranian and Lebanese allies) a hard time. They apparently hope that a refurbished Al Nusra Front, although still an Al Qaeda franchise, could eventually become acceptable to the United States.
My guess is that almost anything would be acceptable to Republican hawks in the Senate (McCain et al) if it appears to have a chance to challenge the Syrians and their allies, so long as it is not called ISIS (for now). Especially if it comes flush with cash to dispense to lobbyists and current and former politicians (the example of the rehabilitation of the Iranian Mujahideen Khalq, MEK, is one example).
That Turkish-Saudi-Qatari coordination (the Wahhabi tripartite) might explain the relative success of the terrorist group. It partly explains the concentration of its operations in areas with easy access to the Turkish Caliphate of Erdogan. Turkey, with its open border policy, has been as responsible as the saudi and Qatari princes and potentates for the growth of the Jihadis in Syria.
Interesting that I mused here about the possibility of the Wahhabi potentates bringing the Al Qaeda back from the cold. They seem to be well on their way, but don’t expect Al Zawahri to hold meetings with Congressional leaders anytime soon (and forget the LOL).
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter [email protected]