All posts by Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Dr. Mohammed Haider Ghuloum: trained as an economist, been called a few other names..... الشرقية للبنين- المتنبي- ثانوية الشويخ

Iranian Guns and Western Flowers for Africa ………………

        


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“When the investigators’ breakthrough came, it carried a surprise. The manufacturer was not one of Africa’s usual suspects. It was Iran. Iran has a well-developed military manufacturing sector, but has not exported its weapons in quantities rivaling those of the heavyweights in the global arms trade, including the United States, Russia, China and several European countries. But its export choices in this case were significant. While small-arms ammunition attracts less attention than strategic weapons or arms that have drawn international condemnation, like land mines and cluster bombs, it is a basic ingredient of organized violence, and is involved each year and at each war in uncountable deaths and crimes………… Iran’s role in providing arms to allies and to those who fight its enemies has long been broadly understood. Some of these practices were most recently reported in the transfer of Fajr-5 ground-to-ground rockets to Gaza. Its expanding footprint of small-arms ammunition exports has pushed questions about its roles in a shadowy ammunition trade high onto the list of research priorities for trafficking investigators. “If you had asked me not too long ago what Iran’s role in small-arms ammunition trafficking to Africa had been, I would have said, ‘Not much,’ ”………………”

This is news only because for the past two centuries the West, mainly Europe, has considered Africa as its own turf. The private market and testing ground for its weapons. I have no doubt of the results if you survey all the weapon exports into Africa, and which weapons have killed the most people. Western weapons probably have killed more Africans in the past quarter century than any other source of weapons in the past thousand years. European weapons have probably killed more Africans during the past two or three centuries than any other weapons from any other source have done for the past five thousand years. (No mention of slavery is needed, that was long ago). Western and more recently Russian and Chinese, and perhaps a few others.
Suddenly the NY Times and one of its writers throws in Darfour and Iran in one sentence. I doubt that they flew Iranian warplanes over Darfour. Almost all the killing weapons originated from outside the Middle East. I also doubt that much of the bullets or machetes used to massacre civilians were made anywhere in the Middle East. The killing fields from Rwanda to Liberia to Sierra Leone to the Congo and the rest of the African tragedies were nourished by weapons from the West (mainly) and then Russia and China and maybe a couple of other sources.
No doubt the Iranians supply some weapons to their allies in Africa, some of them unsavory repressive allies. No doubt these pale compared to the other sources I mentioned. No doubt many of the allies of Western powers in Africa are no sweethearts either. No doubt hypocrisy is not monopolized by one side.

Cheers
mhg

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Islamist Syrian Rebels Seize Strategic Air Base: German Falangista Pilots and Grunge Bands……………

        


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“Rebels seized a strategic air base in northern Syria today after months of fighting, activists and insurgents said, further weakening President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on the region. Rebels had fought for the base used by military helicopters in Idlib province for months, but it only fell after Islamist units reinforced them earlier this month. The Syrian military struck back hours after fighters captured the base, launching air strikes on the area, the pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said………….”

Regime forces most likely had abandoned that base long before it was seized. Still, it shows that regime control is shrinking, at least in terms of territory if not in terms of ability to inflict death and destruction and misery. Now all the rebels need are a few warplanes or helicopters of their own and some pilots. During the Spanish Civil War (1936-39), German Luftwaffe pilots used to ‘volunteer’ for service on the Fascist Falangista side and they brought their bombers and fighters along (the Nazi warplanes also volunteered along with their fliers). Maybe some Qatari or
Saudi pilots will volunteer for duty in Syria and bring along their F-15s.

Maybe that defected Tlass kid, Manaf, will get a haircut and start a nucleus rebel air force. Right now his hairstyle reminds me of some of the Grunge bands in Seattle rather than a putative military leader of a bunch of grizzly fundamentalist freedom fighters, kidnappers, and assorted cutthroats. 

Cheers

mhg


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Iranian Cinematic Dichotomy: from Ancient History to Depicting Life under a Theocracy……..

        


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“Iran is planning its own version of the Ben Affleck movie “Argo,” The New York Times reports, upset about what it calls the Hollywood flick’s “Islamophobia.” The movie, to be called “The General Staff,” is expected to give an accounting of the 1979 Islamic revolution and the U.S. hostage crisis from the perspective of the Iranian regime. It will reportedly be directed by Ataollah Salmanian and financed by the Iranian government’s Art Bureau. “This film, which will be a huge production, should be an appropriate answer to the film ‘Argo,’ which lacks a proper view of historical events,” Salmanian reportedly told the Iranian news agency Mehr this week. Iran’s revolutionary students sparked a political crisis in the United States when they took 52 American diplomats hostage for 444 days and contributed to former President Carter’s resounding loss…………….”

The Iranian cinema industry, the part that the outside world is aware of and watches, seems to be moving along two main tracks.
On the one hand are the superb acclaimed films produced by independent free-spirited film makers, some of which have won international acclaim and awards. The last one was “A Separation” that got an Oscar last year. These films have survived and thrived under the theocracy, perhaps because film-makers have to be creative to deliver their critical message under state scrutiny and censorship. But some of these artists are also in prison for supporting opposition protests and others are in exile and the censors are reportedly becoming more intrusive. Artists everywhere are by nature wary and skeptical of politicians, and for good reason.
On the other hand there are epic historical films that are sponsored by the government. Cecil B. DeMille type films. Usually many of these officially-sponsored films evolve around ancient historical figures and events, including prophets (cinematic impersonation of prophets seems to be acceptable in Iran although it is not allowed in most other Muslim countries). Iranian films are also sometimes produced as a reaction to, and to counter, some Western films involving Iran. (My own favorite Middle East films were those old ones produced in Egypt, up until the 1960s. After that it has been mostly a steep downhill slide in quality for Egyptian cinema).
I have posted a few relevant links here, for your reading and (mainly) for my own archival
purposes:


Holy Moses? Official Iranian Film Digs up Ancient Zionists, Snubs the First

Regime Cinema: the Iranian Obsession with British Plots

Clint Eastwood in Iran: From Spaghetti Westerns to Chelo Kebab Westerns

Creativity in a Theocracy: One Iranian Film on its Way to the Oscars

Cheers
mhg

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PR Nation: Saudi King Appoints Women to Advisory Council………….

        


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“Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, ruler of one of the most restrictive countries in the world for women, appointed the first female members Friday to a top advisory body that is the closest thing the kingdom has to a parliament. The 30 women named to the 150-member body will be required to wear proper hijab, or covering, and will have a separate entrance and section within the council’s main chambers, the royal decree announcing the appointments said. “It’s a big, big step forward,” said Thuraya Obaid, a former United Nations undersecretary-general from Saudi Arabia who was appointed to the council. In terms of women in Saudi Arabia, she said, “we will not be able to achieve everything at once … but this will give strength to the voice of women in the country……..”……”

Actually not only women members will be required to cover their heads. There is some equality here: both sexes, men and women, are required to wear a head cover. When they show a photo of the appointed advisory council, you’ll see that all members, both males and females, are wearing head covers, but with different names. It is called hijab for women and something else for the men. What separates the two sexes is probably the goatee, the royal fuzz on the royal chin, the (saksooka) which may become a requirement, but only for the men. As for separate entrances, I can’t imagine what will happen if some confused male member takes the wrong turn.

This appointment of women to this advisory council
is a positive departure from past policy. But it is a tiny symbolic step
that is meaningless in terms of any move toward freedom and democracy
and, as important, accountability.
The Saudi regime has become masterful at creating diversions, at public relations stunts. It is good at making meaningless moves that attract headlines, especially in the West, even as the regime is tightening its controls. Even as it is cracking down at growing dissent and protests against repression across the Arabian Peninsula, from Qatif to Najd to Hijaz.
 
This council is appointed by the king, and last year his majesty arbitrarily decided to renew the appointment of all current members. Just like that. The late prince Nayef once famously remarked something to the effect that “I look at these members of the council, and I know that no electoral system can come up with better people than these”.

Cheers
mhg

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GCC Gulf Oligarchs and their Islamists: the Thrill is Gone……………


         


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For decades some Gulf ruling oligarchs encouraged Islamist movements as one way to counter their main opposition of the time: the secular liberals, be they leftists or just Pan-Arabists or both. That was the era that started in the 1950’s and began to wane in the 1970s. It weakened further in the 1980s when some Arab countries and movements split about the Iran-Iraq war and the Islamist tide was rising. The final nail in the coffin of that era of secular liberal Arab movement came when Saddam Hussein’s tanks rolled into Kuwait in 1990. This is simplifying the story, but roughly it is correct. A brief review:

  • The Al Saud had already established their own theocratic kingdom in partnership with the Wahhabi clerics. It has been a convenient partnership: (a) the princes get complete control of the wealth and the weapons and the politics and the livelihood of the people and, (b) the clerics get control of the soul of the people under the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam. Both (a) and (b) share the keys to the chains that shackle the peoples of the Arabian Peninsula. With the explosion of oil prices and the weakening of Arab secularism after 1970, the Al Saud and their Wahhabi clerics expanded beyond their borders, using the potent powers of money and previously-dormant sectarianism. The results have been spectacular, from their point of view. Wahhabism has spread into places as far as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Indonesia, even Chechnya and the Caucasus. As well as many Arab states, both on the Persian-American Gulf and in places like Egypt under Mubarak, and now Syria. This dual (Al Saud-Wahhabi) control continues in the Arabian Peninsula, but the pressures are rising. The fear is receding and multiple opposition is rising from places like Hijaz and Najd and Qatif. In other Gulf GCC states Islamism has taken different paths.
  • The recent Gulf Islamist rise has been strongest and most threatening in Kuwait. That occurred mainly because the ruling political “elites” encouraged it as a counterweight to the old secular leftist forces. These (once-strong) secular forces often tended to focus on corruption and reform politics while the potentates thought that these issues were not worth the trouble (surprise, surprise). The Islamists in Kuwait (both Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood) grabbed the opportunity to expand and typically did not seem to care about issues of corruption or political freedom. The “elites” were quite comfortable with the seemingly non-threatening Islamist approach. It was a marriage made in heaven for both sides, but it has had terrible effects on the country both in terms of development and social divisiveness. Besides, the Islamists, as supreme opportunists, were biding their time. A massive crop of clerics and teachers, many of them Salafis educated in Saudi Wahhabi institutions, eventually managed to take effective control of the social agenda and dominate the educational system of the country. In recent years, and in alliance with some tribal elements, they came to dominate the political system as well. The country became dangerously divided. These Islamist fundamentalists (Salafis and Muslim Brothers) now lead the opposition. Ironically they are allied with some aging remnants of the secular liberal forces they had vehemently opposed in the past. What I call the pro-Saudi Wahhabi liberals are also eager allies of the Islamists now, as are some among the sincere reformist youth who are frustrated by corruption. All these current allies had lost out during the decades when the Islamists sided with the ruling “elites” against reform and accountability. Until recent years the (Sunni) Islamist groups of both stripes had claimed that “leftists and liberals and secularists” were the greatest danger to Islam and society. Well, they probably meant the ‘second’ greatest danger (after you know who). The Islamist opportunism and hypocrisy continues. But, as far as their relationship with the ruling “elites”, as B.B. King says in the great old song: the thrill is gone. For now.

  • In Bahrain many (but not all) of the Sunni Islamists bought into the sectarian fear-mongering narrative of the ruling Al Khalifa family. Many now see the Shi’a majority and their demand as a threat to their own influence in historically tolerant and secular Bahrain. The phony legislature is empty of any representative of the the opposition, both Shi’a and Sunni, even though the opposition parties won well over 65% of the vote in the last elections. Yet Bahrainis of all sects are now beginning to notice the danger of foreign mercenaries (Jordanians, Pakistanis, Syrians, etc.) imported by the Al Khalifa in increasing numbers to help keep their absolute power. Meanwhile the ruling family, arguably one of the most corrupt among the Gulf GCC potentates, has continued to systematically loot the country.

  • Qatar, nominally Wahhabi, has found its own “accommodation” with Arab Islamists. It is now the Best Forever Friend of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Gulf, just as a couple of years ago it was the BFF (+F) of both Syria and Iran. It is now as close to the MB as the Saudis are suspicious of it.

  • The UAE has started a surprisingly fierce media war against the Muslim Brotherhood (M. Not just a media war: it is also cracking down on suspected MB inside its territory be they citizens or foreigners. It is now treating the Muslim Brothers as fiercely as it treated Lebanese Shi’as a year or two ago. My funny source tells me that some of the potentates in the UAE had formed close ties with the MB over the years. She tells me that the ruling Al-Nahayan brothers of Abu Dhabi have finally decided to crack down on them. UAE authorities claim they have uncovered a plot against the state, but oddly these plots were uncovered as soon as some academics suggested that the country reform its politics and become more democratic. The arrests are continuing as new plots are uncovered. Relations with MB Egypt are not good, not good at all.
  • As for Oman, I have often opined here, correctly, that the Omanis look across the seas rather than back toward the Arabian Peninsula. Smart Omanis! I have worked with them in the past on GCC economic matters, in my other incarnation, and I know that they go through the motions without conviction. They have little serious interest in either Arab or Gulf matters, but they also realize where they are located. Oman has always been focused on relations overseas: across the Arabian Sea, the Persian-American Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. They don’t really care much about the Peninsula or the wider Arab world.They just go through the proverbial motions.

Cheers
mhg

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Foreign Politics: How the Average American Can Become Smarter Twice……….

   


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                                Neck of the woods

There is a lot of talk about extremist groups, kooks, and fundamentalists collecting petitions for some states to secede from the American Union, i.e. the United States. Anyway, that is how most of the ‘mainstream’ media is labeling them, directly or indirectly.
One of my sources in a famous secession-prone Red State told me something strange. He swore to me that this secession, if it ever occurs, will be good for both ‘sides’: for the average American and for the seceding former citizens. He swore to me that it would make the average American noticeably smarter, practically overnight. He also swore to me that it would make the citizens of the seceding state(s) feel much smarter than before. I am still trying to figure it out, although I don’t even live over there. On the face of it, it seems to be good for everybody!

But I was also told that the seceding former citizens will sorely miss all the socialistic federal spending; may even negotiate keeping some of it as part of their secession deal. Sort of a deal sweetener, my source told me without explaining who will taste the sweetener.
Anyway, I plan to see “Lincoln” soon.

Cheers
mhg

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Palindromic Arab League Schedules a Gaza Meeting Soon, Sublime Porte Promises Self-Control………….

   


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                                Neck of the woods

My Cairo source reports that the Arab League has decided to declare that self-control is the best approach to the Gaza attacks. My source tells me that the Shaikh of Al-Azhar and former Mubarak crony, Ahmed Al-Tayeb, has consulted with the palindromic Saudi Mufti Shaikh Al Al Shaikh who consulted with palindromic Prince Saud Al Faisal Al Saud who informed him of the desires of the palindromic Sublime Porte of Riyadh to show restraint.
I have been told that the Arab League is divided between two strains, two parties if you will: the party of “let me at him, oh please let me at him (and her)” AND the party of “hold me back before I do something I’ll regret early tomorrow morning when I look at her face.
Asked

about the meeting next Saturday, a League official responded: “Saturday? I thought they favored Monday. By Monday we will know exactly what happened. We might even know what will happen. Hopefully. Besides, what is the rush? Both Gaza and Israel, er, the Zionist Entity, will still be there.
Someon
e was even overheard opining that Hamas will now know exactly where to spend the new Qatari money promised last week. Unlike the PA Ramallah authorities who are so befuddled that they prefer to spread the brotherly and sisterly aid money among various bank accounts.

Cheers
mhg

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Palindromic Arab League Schedules a Gaza Meeting Soon, Sublime Porte Promises Self-Control………….

   


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                                Neck of the woods

My Cairo source reports that the Arab League has decided to declare that self-control is the best approach to the Gaza attacks. My source tells me that the Shaikh of Al-Azhar and former Mubarak crony, Ahmed Al-Tayeb, has consulted with the palindromic Saudi Mufti Shaikh Al Al Shaikh who consulted with palindromic Prince Saud Al Faisal Al Saud who informed him of the desires of the palindromic Sublime Porte of Riyadh to show restraint.
I have been told that the Arab League is divided between two strains, two parties if you will: the party of “let me at him, oh please let me at him (and her)” AND the party of “hold me back before I do something I’ll regret early tomorrow morning when I look at her face.
Asked

about the meeting next Saturday, a League official responded: “Saturday? I thought they favored Monday. By Monday we will know exactly what happened. We might even know what will happen. Hopefully. Besides, what is the rush? Both Gaza and Israel, er, the Zionist Entity, will still be there.
Someon
e was even overheard opining that Hamas will now know exactly where to spend the new Qatari money promised last week. Unlike the PA Ramallah authorities who are so befuddled that they prefer to spread the brotherly and sisterly aid money among various bank accounts.

Cheers
mhg

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The Fear is Gone: Bahrain Proposes Common Lists of Dissidents for the GCC……………..

   


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                                Neck of the woods

Tuesday Nov. 13, 2012: The following tweets by the Bahrain Ministry of Interior (responsible for: police, security, mercenaries, looting, arrests, tear gas, shootings, torture, prisons, courts) were discovered:

Ministry of Interior ‏@moi_bahrain
Our countries expose to a colonial onslaught that uses the names of human rights, freedom or democracy

Ministry of Interior ‏@moi_bahrain
We expect those who deal with us to respect our civilized values and Islamic concepts that are based on respect for human rights.

Ministry of Interior ‏@moi_bahrain
A need 4GCC National Security List of individuals, organizations &countries outline a clear &definitive security strategy 2deal with threats

Ministry of Interior ‏@moi_bahrain

GCC Interior Minister signed a security agreement to promote coordination and cooperation

Ministry of Interior ‏@moi_bahrain
GCC Interior Ministers condemned recent bombings in Bahrain that resulted in severe injuries and death to both civilians and police.

Forget the nonsense about ‘colonialism of human rights organizations’.
I found
the third tweet (from the top in red) the most disturbing. It tells me where they are heading, these potentates on my Gulf. It says: “GCC National Security List of individuals, organizations &countries”. Meaning they will create a common list of names of individuals, organizations tweepes, bloggers, etc. I suspect a majority of the people of Bahrain will be on that proposed “dangerous” list. With the twin goals of killing dissent and spreading fear in the citizenry. But, alas, the fear is mostly gone these days.

Cheers
mhg

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Iran and the West: Three Elections that may Determine War or Peace, Likud Nuts on a Persian Fire………….

   


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                                Neck of the woods

“The question of an attack on Iran has become the subject of intense debate over the past few months. What is puzzling about this debate is that it has not centered on Iran’s nuclear program or whether Iranians seek to obtain a nuclear bomb, but rather on whether Israel or the US (or both) will attack Iran to prevent this. The re-election of Barack Obama to a second term is important, yet the situation vis-à-vis Iran and Israel has not changed significantly. Iran still faces harsh sanctions and its economy is on the brink of collapse; nevertheless, its nuclear program continues to advance unchecked and the regime does not show signs of weakening its grip on power. Likewise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces elections in January 2013, but is likely to win a resounding victory; Iranians will also go to the polls in 2013 to elect a new president and Majlis (parliament). The outcome of these elections will neither change the overall threat Iran’s nuclear program poses to Israel nor the military threat Israel poses to Iran. Caught between the risk of an Israeli attack on Iran or an Iranian attack against Israel is the United States, desperately trying to avoid the outbreak of an Iranian–Israeli war, the consequences of which are unpredictable…………………”

Israeli politicians sometimes go to war before elections. They did it in Gaza two years ago. Mr. Netanyahu must be tempted to drag the United States into another Middle East war, but he will hesitate. He knows the USA will intervene to help his country if its war on Iran fails, which it almost certainly will. But Mr. Obama owes Netanyahu nothing: he gambled on the American right winning the elections. Obama just may let Bibi’s nuts roast a little on the Persian fire before intervening either to join him or to stop the madness. Besides, American and Israeli interests don’t always coincide, in spite of the election year political rhetoric. And nobody knows for certain the exact consequences of an attack on Iran on Western interests and economies.
The American elections are done, with the next round coming in 2014 (Democrats will most likely regain control of the Congress). Iran will hold two separate elections in 2013: parliamentary and presidential. Israel seems heading toward new elections soon. It is a safe bet that the Israeli and Iranian elections will not change anything: the right wing will win in both countries. Especially in Iran if the reformists continue to be persecuted and their followers demoralized. Israeli elections are somewhat less predictable: they are now between the right wing AND the extreme right wing.
Then there are the Saudi and Qatari elections: it is not clear who will win the positions of King and Emir. I think I was just kidding………..

Cheers
mhg

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