Tag Archives: YEMEN

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

War on Yemen: Hadi from His Peanut Gallery Exile……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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Former President General AbdRabuh Mansour Hadi of Yemen and his foreign minister are ensconced in luxurious quarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. From whence they have called and urged a violent foreign bombing campaign against their country and their people. Having seen their opponents, the Houth-Saleh alliance, continue to gain ground in spite of intense Saudi bombardment, they are now urging a full foreign invasion of their country. In order to return them to power. But I have already issued a final fatwa that Hadi will not return to rule in Sanaa no matter who “wins” this complex war.

So, why isn’t “General” Hadi, the escaped former president, the escaped military general, in Aden now leading the fight he is urging everyone else in Yemen to wage? Why is he not leading the fight against the Houthi-Saleh alliance. And maybe against Al Qaeda (AQAP) and maybe ISIS and even the Southern Independence Movement (Hirak)? And maybe expose himself to the same foreign Western-Saudi bombs his people face every day?
Instead of joining the faraway media peanut gallery in Riyadh? Confining himself to urging others to fight and expose their families to catcalling from far away, like us “peaceful” bloggers and tweeps?

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Yemen

Arabian Peninsula: Is Decisive Storm Really a Desert Storm or a Stupid Storm?………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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In the Gulf GCC countries that are bombing Yemen, you get arrested and imprisoned if you publicly criticize this war being waged by air against the poorest Arab country outside Africa. The war is done in alliance with Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and at least two Western powers who supply the weapons and provide the logistics and intelligence. Pakistan and Malaysia are being coy, but it is almost certain the former ia supplying some personnel.
As I said, one goes to prison for publicly opposing this war that probably was imposed on the GCC by the Saudis. The doubters have been right so far. Decisive Storm has not been decisive yet, has not decided anything except to visit misery, death, injury, and homelessness on the people of Yemen. While the escaped former president, the weakling AbdRAbuh Hadi, and his ministers egg on the attackers from luxury accommodations in Saudi Arabia.

So far the war has not achieved any strategic success. Since it started a week ago, the Houthis and their military allies have completed their takeover of Aden and Bab El Mandab Strait on the Red Sea. Perhaps the idea is to weaken them enough with bombardment for an easy ground attack or to force them to accept Hadi. Neither is realistic. Hadi is out and for good. He was never popular inside Yemen. Any leader that invites a foreign attack on his country and people does not usually return to power, as per my last fatwa.

The whole concept of Decisive Storm is based on the Desert Storm campaign that freed Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991. Softening with bombardment, and then……….what? Can you imagine a Saudi and Egyptian expeditionary force slugging it in the rugged Yemeni landscape? And what would the other side do?
That is why I prefer to call it Stupid Storm. Unless they can prove otherwise……..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, Saudi Arabia, War, Yemen

Arab Despots Finally Find Someone They Think They Can Defeat, Poorer Arabs……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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The princes of the Persian Gulf countries must have spent almost a trillion dollars on weapons and related services in the past decade or so. Many princes and potentates and their families have accumulated huge fortunes from commissions and kickbacks (never called bribes in polite mixed company) on these arms deals. I and others have often commented that these weapons are imported and left to rust in the desert, unless they can be used for repression and crowd control.

Now the princes and potentates are setting out to prove me and others wrong. They have finally found someone they think they can beat on or so they think. So they are carpet bombing the major cities of the poorest Arab country outside Africa, Yemen. As long as they stick to aerial bombing they are doing fine from their point of view, killing Yemenis and destroying Yemen.

They may, they should, hesitate to actually enter the land of Yemen: they have tried it before and got whipped, both the Saudis and their Egyptian sidekicks. Still, they may decide to end this curse of Yemen by using imported mercenary armies as cannon fodder, or Houthi-fodder. Pakistanis, Jordanians, Egyptians, Moroccans, and perhaps Bengalis. People the princes deem expendable.

They are crowing, these entitled princes, in their media that they are achieving a great victory, from a distance. As they kill and destroy their neighbors. Soon it will be time for the pop corn as the real battle is joined on land.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Yemen War: Rich Men’s Bombs, Poor Men’s Blood…..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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Some interesting points about this Rich Man-Poor Man alliance attacking Yemen these days:

  • Rich Men: As some on social media have noted, it is led by the richest anti-democratic ruling Arab oligarchies. With support and ‘unspecified but essential’ help from the Obama administration. It has hired some of the poorer Arab countries (Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, Jordan, Morocco) and Muslim countries (Pakistan) to provide help, possibly cannon fodder if they are forced to engage in a ground war.
  • Poor Men: All this power, the most expensive weapons that petro-money can buy from the Western democracies, mobilized in this attack. To attack one of the poorest Arab countries, in fact the poorest Arab country outside Africa.
  • Command Center:The Houthis were quick to note that the war was declared in Washington, by the Saudi ambassador (who was ignored by most American media). They claim this means the war is managed by Americans. Otherwise, why not declare it publicly in Riyadh?
  • Land Issues: The Houthis, and other Yemenis, have started to discuss the ‘ northern regions’ which are under Saudi control.  Names like Assir, Najran, Jizan come to mind. Those were all regions of northern Yemen that were occupied and annexed by the Saudis in the 20th century. They now say that these regions should be “discussed”. Most of the populations of these regions are Zaidis, of the same sect as the Houthis.
  • Alliances: Still, it not not clear what the Houthi’s goals are either. It is true, they are now allied with their former enemy, wily dictator Al Abdallah Salih. But the Saudis and Qataris, great democrats that they are, are allied with the butcher of Sudan, a man wanted by the ICC. And the dictator of Egypt, who should be wanted by the ICC.

So, the plot thickens, as this bombing attack on Yemen drags on………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, U.S. Foreign Policy, War, Yemen

A Unified Arab Army of Pakistanis, Sudanese, Egyptians, and Americans………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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There was excitement in Sharm El Shaikh, the former Israeli resort that Egypt inherited (actually regained) after the Camp David accords. The Arab absolute kings, presidents for life, kitchen-hardened field marshals, and other assorted despots gathered to bless the new violent assault on Yemen.

One could probably hear some of their minds whirring, the mental cash registers ringing, calculating: how much money can we get out of these absolute tribal rulers of these statelets or half-states as Al Sisi and his advisers called them, called us, on tape.
Quite a coalition of the eagerly willing for a price in saudi and Emirati and Qatari money:

  • Sudan whose dictator is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for genocide, mass murder, and other violations.
  • Somalia which has no government except on paper.
  • Military junta-ruled Egypt, in an economic bind and willing to convert to any faith, including Wahhabism, for a price.
  • Perennial mercenary nuclear state of Pakistan, always happy and willing to supply mercenaries, soldiers, and interrogators to several Persian Gulf states for a price.
  • Humorless Jordan, a favorite source of mercenaries: interrogators, torturers, and other assorted crowd control specialists.
  • Others, including Qatar and the UAE (Emirates) whose economies rely on the almost 90% of their populations that are temporary expatriate laborers.

Quite a coalition of the willing to pay and the eager to be paid. Then there is the Obama administration, of the early perhaps premature Nobel Peace Prize, which everybody in the Middle East either suspects or knows planned the short-term strategy for the ongoing savage bombing of Yemen. Unless they think the Egyptians and Saudis and Qataris can organize and choreograph such a campaign. Which nobody in their right mind believes.

A unified Arab force indeed………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Fatwa, Fatwas, GCC, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

A Fatwa on Battered Yemen: Hadi’s Last Look at Sanaa……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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Yemen‘s weakling former president AbdRabuh Mansour Hadi was elected in a strange election where he had no opponent, arranged by the usual suspects: the absolute princes of the GCC with the accommodating international bureaucracy of the UN looking on. He “won” by an astounding but very typically Arab 99.8% of the vote in 2012: the other .02% of the voters were stoned on election day, or maybe they were the only sober ones. He proceeded to preside over a new/old regime that was as corrupt as any in modern Yemeni history. Lucky for Yemen his reign did not stray far from a couple of cities.
Still under pressure from the resurgent Houthis, he renewed for himself when his term expired in January, something the Arab despots understood and cheered. He was put under house arrest for a few weeks by the Houthis. As soon as the house arrest was eased he escaped, allegedly dressed as a fat woman, and headed for his native region around Aden. A rebellious city General Hadi had bombed and helped conquer for former absolute ruler Ali Abdallah Salih in 1994.
From Aden, he called on the Arab tribal princes, shaikhs and assorted self-styled kings and entitled family field marshals to bomb his country in order to restore him to power. Never mind that he never had much power. Never mind that his foreign allies had neglected Yemen for decades, keeping its people on the verge of starvation as they provided limited aid on political conditions.

From Aden a legend developed about Hadi’s whereabouts last week. He was on a rickety boat to Djibouti. He was on his way to Riyadh. He was living with BinAli and the ghost of Idi Amin in Jeddah. He was holed up somewhere with the slippery Waldo. In the end he did show up smiling and kissing the princes who are bombing his countrymen and countrywomen and country-children. A final shameless act by a stooge.

Whatever happens in this new savage war being waged on Yemen by rich oil princes and their hired Arab mercenaries, however it turns, Generalissimo Hadi has seen the last of Sanaa. He will not be the president of Yemen anymore.
This is my Fatwa, and it is at least as good and valid as any I have seen recently. A Fatwa that is backed by the history of Yemen in the past hundred years, if you bother to read that history carefully………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Enemy of the Enemy of My Friend: Northern Yemen, Southern Yemen, Eastern Yemen, USA, USA………

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North Yemen, what used to be called Yemen throughout most of modern history is now largely under control of Houthis and their other allies. Largely but not totally, and it is a fluid situation, as it has been in Yemen for almost forever. The Arab princes and potentates of the Persian Gulf have cut off their aid, seriously harming the innocent people of Yemen in order to punish their new leaders: that is how all blockades and sanctions usually work. The Iranians are reported to be supplying foreign aid and possibly weapons to the Houthis, who dutifully raise Iranian-style anti-American banners even as they welcome American drones attacking their mortal Al Qaeda (and maybe soon ISIS) enemies.

South Yemen, what used to be called Southern Arabia (or the Arabian South) under the British and later the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen after independence. Before it merged with (north) Yemen under Colonel Salih in early 1990. It is now more fragmented even than after the British withdrew from Aden. General President AbRabuh Hadi, a nominal southerner, allegedly rules in Aden, rules in parts of it anyway, with some other allies in the outskirts. He receives Western and GCC dignitaries and ambassadors, although it is not clear how many of these ambassadors actually hang around Aden after the media cameras are gone.

The Southern Independence Movement (Hirak) controls the hearts and minds in the South and they don’t welcome anyone who wants to bring them back under Sanaa control. It is a severe case of ‘buyer’s remorse’. Al Qaeda (AQAP) terrorists control large chunks of the south, including a few towns. The murderous Caliphate of ISIS (DAESH) is apparently also making some inroads, but nothing on a military scale yet.
There are also, like in the North Yemen, tribal undercurrents and conflicts in “both” parts now, actually in “all” parts of Yemen.

So, the free-for-all starts. So, whether you are an Arab, a Muslim, or otherwise: turn off your conscience, stifle your emotions, harden your heart, get some popcorn, and watch the bloody tragedy………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Israel, U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Senate, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Tale of Three Dysfunctional Cities: Sanaa, Aden, and Washington…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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They say Yemen is threatened with division again. They say there are now two capitals in that blighted country at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Sanaa in the North, and Aden in the South. They say that former president Hadi (bin Zombie) is claiming he is back in power from Aden, that he and his local southern allies and the GCC countries run whatever they can run from Aden. That the Houthis and their allies now rule from Sanaa. Two capitals and two rival claimants to power, each claiming the other is not legitimate (they are probably both right). While the AQAP-hunting drones rule the skies. That is Yemen for now.

Now we have two regimes and two foreign policies in the United States as well.  Both rule from the same city, geographically speaking. One is Likudnik, largely Republican, but also bi-partisan to some extent, and it takes its signals from Tel Aviv (okay, West Jerusalem) via AIPAC and Las Vegas and other campaign money centers. It follows the cult of Netanyahu, a demagogue that reminds me of a softer gentler version of (dare I say it?) another ruthless demagogue (or two, my alibi). The other regime is Democrat and also claims Washington. They diverge in many ways, but now especially in foreign policy. Each is pinning its hopes on 2016 to sweep into absolute power. Neither looks set to realize that hope, not in that year.

Let’s see which of the three cities can stop being dysfunctional, can manage to become functioning, first………

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Caliphate, Yemen

From Arabia Felix to an Arab Prototype……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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Yemen gets even more complex almost by the day, and who could have thunk it only a few weeks ago? It is now almost a prototype of a failed Arab state, in a similar league with a few others like Somalia and Libya and Syria: 

  • Houthis now control the capital Sanaa and the North: they are strongly aligned against Islah and AQAP (always) .
  • Houthis reportedly aligned with former president Saleh (for now: he still has influence with the army and security forces).
  • Houthis turn against Saleh (maybe soon as they tighten their control of the central state institutions, such as they are).
  • AQAP are against Houthis (always, a Wahhabi-Shi’a conflict, among other issues).
  • Former president General Hadi against Houthis (normal struggle of the provinces against Sanaa, in addition to the influence of Hadi-backers among Saudi and Gulf princes).
  • Houthis against all the above (normal in this situation of regional/tribal/sectarian rivalry: at some point all these groups will have to face each other).
  • AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) against all the above (possibly temporary alliances with some, for example now against the Houthis who always have a priority as enemies).
  • Hirak (the strong South Yemen independence movement) against all of the above (with likely temporary alliances with some of the others). Hirak may have preferred former president General Hadi (a southerner) because he was a weak leader with no political base, hence not much of a threat to anyone’s aspirations.
  • Some smaller remnants of the once-potent pan-Arab and Nasserist and socialist movements. As well as a few other parties, including the party of Saleh. I even saw a Green Party listed somewhere: not sure if it refers to environmental concerns or the chewable ‘qat (gat). No significant influence now.
  • Throw in there a mix of various tribal forces and influences, just to make things more complicated and more interesting.
  • GCC against Houthis and maybe Islah (ex-Qatar which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and hence Islah).
  • Iran against all the above (ex-Houthis and possibly other allies of convenience).
  • USA against AQAP (what else is new? And maybe against the Houthis in the future, but that would be a tough nut to crack).

IS or ISIS, the new kid on the block. It is showing some signs of life as well in Yemen: definitely against all comers. Unless they pledge allegiance to the silly but murderous Caliph WhatIsHisFace.

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, GCC, Yemen

Battle Lines in Southern Arabia: Bears in the Forest…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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Here is where the Yemen situation stood yesterday (it is morning here, it could have changed overnight). Things move fast over there:

  • Former president Hadi escaped to Aden a few days ago, as soon as the Houthis allowed him free movement. Apparently he is trying now to establish a shadow authority in the south. He will have to contend with two powerful forces in South Yemen: the Independence Movement (Hirak) and Al Qaeda (AQAP).
  • Not clear how Hirak (movement to regain Southern independence) will deal with Hadi (someone called him Al Zombie, but not me). Not clear how AQAP will deal with him. Both strong in South Yemen. Not to mention his former partners, the Islah Islamists.
  • Gulf GCC ambassadors (at least Saudi and Qatari) will move embassies to Aden now. GCC Secretary General Al Zayani a Bahraini potentate, has already visited Hadi in Aden. The media showed Zayani, suspiciously reeking of Old Spice, smirking at the cameras. 
  • Houthis seem frustrated now by the turn of events, and it shows. Abdel Malik al Houthi (Americanized as AMH) spoke that Hadi was a Saudi-American stooge (perhaps because he was put in place by GCC with US blessing). He added that any ambassador who doesn’t like Sanaa is welcome to move (a no brainer but thanks for the invite). Adding that Saudi money did not help the Yemeni people much (that is true, it did not help the poor much). It would be more helpful if they allow Yemeni labor instead of restricting them.
  • There have been no reports that the American drone campaign against AQAP terrorists has slowed down by recent political developments. No objection has been voiced by Houthis or their rivals to continued drone activity, not yet.
  • Iranian and Hezbollah media are now moving faster in support of the Houthis. As the GCC moves quickly to set up their own acceptable regime in Aden. Would this indicate that more sectarian polarization in Yemen and the Middle East is to be expected? Do bears pee in the forest?
  • Yesterday‘s report from UN that deposed president Saleh had amassed $60 billion over the years seems farfetched (actually the figures are ridiculous). Yemen is too poor to allow anyone an opportunity to steal $ 60 bin. As I tweeted yesterday, even some Saudi princes may find it hard to steal $60 billion. I just don’t believe it. I believe the stealing but not the numbers: all Arab leaders are entitled to steal and they all do so.

So, back to two Yemens? Will the GCC start supporting the old Marxist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Arabia)? Or will we continue with about four Yemens for some time?
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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