Tag Archives: Houthis

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Will Ramadan Save Embarrassment and Life in Southern Arabia?………

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Will the holy month of Ramadan save the Saudi cojones from the fire they started three months ago?

There is a consensus, even within the Arab world, that the intensive Saudi air war against Yemen has failed. Call it what you will: Decisive Storm, Renewed Hope, Faltering Storm (one of my own favorites) or Failed Storm (my most favoritest name for it) or Genocidal Storm. The Saudis and their African Mercenaries (Sudanese, Senegalese, Moroccans, possibly also Jordanians) have run out of real targets. They are now in the process of bombing old targets, and bombing historic buildings, shrines, and residential buildings. They are doing almost WWII-style bombing of cities, hoping to catch some Houthis or Yemeni Army fighters napping. Out of useful targets.
Out of targets but not out of bombs and missiles, courtesy of Western democracies (and petromoney). Yet they don’t want to send their land army into a losing battle. Nor can they get any regime, be it Arab or African or Asian, to send their armies into a ground war and a guerrilla quagmire.

But never fear. Ramadan is here, or at the gates. The advent of Ramadan has not stopped Muslims from waging war against each other in the past, but it might this year. This week, maybe the delegates meeting in Geneva will have the excuse of the holy month to call a long ceasefire. The Saudis should jump at the chance. If the runaway former president General Hadi Bin Zombie objects, they can disinvite him from his Riyadh Hotel. Let him stay in Geneva.

Ramadan Kareem
(I knew someone named Mohammed Kareem, but no relation of Ramadan).
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Cinema, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

A Fatwa in Arabia: Gone With The Wind Minus Rhett and Scarlett…………

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“Displaced Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi said he is sure that the Houthi rebels will be defeated in the near future. Yemen Reconciliation Conference to Provide Basis For Any Future Talks. The Houthi rebels will be defeated in the near future, displaced Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi said Sunday at a conference on Yemen reconciliation. The conference in the Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh involves over 400 representatives of the country’s political forces and the international organizations. The representatives of the Houthi rebel group, the main opposition force in Yemen, do not participate in the conference…………”

This futile Saudi-organized conference on Yemen is a monologue rather than a dialogue. The most important actors in Yemen are not attending. It is like Gone With The Wind without Rhett Butler and Scarlett O’Hara. No Houthis or former dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh representatives were invited or would attend anyway. Hadi and those with him could never fill the place of either Rhett or Scarlett, or even the fat slave Mammy of Tara.
That is where escaped deposed president General Hadi of Yemen gave his latest fatwa that “the Saudis will win their air war against the Houthis soon”. Hadi had also announced two weeks ago a grandiose plan for Yemen to join the Gulf GCC, which was ignored by everyone especially the GCC. He also issued a string of meaningless decrees appointing and disappointing commanders who had mostly fled Aden with him to Riyadh. Any commander worth his salt who remained in Yemen would ignore his orders after he abandoned them for the safety and luxury of Saudi hospitality.    

Then there is my own famous and potent fatwa on Yemen and Hadi’s prospects in Sanaa. Here it is.   
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Weird Saudi War on Yemen: Reluctant Allies, a Ceasefire Prank………

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“Saudi Arabia’s resumption of airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen on Wednesday, only hours after it abruptly declared a halt to most military operations, reflected the difficulty of finding a political solution to the crisis. It also showed the challenges facing the Obama administration as it increasingly relies on allies in the Middle East. Senior Saudi officials made clear on Wednesday that they had not formally declared an end to bombing………”

Saudi behavior in their war on Yemen is getting weirder almost by the day:

First, they demanded that former president General Hadi who has escaped from Sanaa then from Aden be reinstated. He presided over part of Yemen, his allies were quite corrupt, and he is not liked because he invited foreign bombings and invasion of his country. I have told them, nay fatwa-ed, in postings here that Hadi will never return to Sanaa (no matter how long he travels لا صنعاء ولو طال السفر ), most likely not even to Aden. Apparently they did not listen.

Second, they invited Turkey and Pakistan and Egypt to join the assault on Yemen. Only Egypt was partly amenable, and the humorless Kingdom of Jordan to a limited extent.

Third, this war is presumably led by new defense minister Prince Muhammad, son of King Salman, who is in his twenties. Highly unlikely that he is ‘leading’ or strategizing the campaign: he has been on the job only a few weeks. I’d bet the farm, if I had a farm, that he is being strongly advised by others, mainly foreigners, on strategy.

Fourth, they’ve spent a month bombing cities, infrastructure and military installations, killing many Yemenis and wounding more. Yet they claim they were doing it for the Yemeni people. They warned of an Iranian “presence” in Houthi Yemen, yet nobody could locate a single Iranian soldier or Revolutionary Guard or bricklayer anywhere in Yemen.

Fifth, the bombing campaign has failed. The Saudi king issued a decree inviting or authorizing the National Guard NG to join the battle. The NG is a ground force owned by Prince Meteb (Muteb if you will) bin Abdullah, who inherited it from his late father King Abdullah. Maybe they were setting him up for a medal.

Sixth, one day later they declared that their military strikes on Yemen have ended.

Seventh, within hours of the declaration of cessation of bombing they resumed bombing Yemen. Confusing moves by the confused; or maybe it was a prank.

Eighth, there are reasonably credible reports that other GCC states are in this adventure reluctantly. The United Arab Emirates, UAE, is reported to be unhappy about it. Oman has wisely refused to join this Wahhabi crusade. The other Gulf potentates are sort of barely in it, but it is really a Saudi-American operation.

Ninth, very important, they have no shortages of the best weapons that the western powers can manufacture and export. Can it tip the balance against the lightly-armed Houthis? Maybe it can, but the war is confined to one-sided aerial bombing………

And that is where it stands………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Enemy of the Enemy of My Friend: Northern Yemen, Southern Yemen, Eastern Yemen, USA, USA………

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North Yemen, what used to be called Yemen throughout most of modern history is now largely under control of Houthis and their other allies. Largely but not totally, and it is a fluid situation, as it has been in Yemen for almost forever. The Arab princes and potentates of the Persian Gulf have cut off their aid, seriously harming the innocent people of Yemen in order to punish their new leaders: that is how all blockades and sanctions usually work. The Iranians are reported to be supplying foreign aid and possibly weapons to the Houthis, who dutifully raise Iranian-style anti-American banners even as they welcome American drones attacking their mortal Al Qaeda (and maybe soon ISIS) enemies.

South Yemen, what used to be called Southern Arabia (or the Arabian South) under the British and later the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen after independence. Before it merged with (north) Yemen under Colonel Salih in early 1990. It is now more fragmented even than after the British withdrew from Aden. General President AbRabuh Hadi, a nominal southerner, allegedly rules in Aden, rules in parts of it anyway, with some other allies in the outskirts. He receives Western and GCC dignitaries and ambassadors, although it is not clear how many of these ambassadors actually hang around Aden after the media cameras are gone.

The Southern Independence Movement (Hirak) controls the hearts and minds in the South and they don’t welcome anyone who wants to bring them back under Sanaa control. It is a severe case of ‘buyer’s remorse’. Al Qaeda (AQAP) terrorists control large chunks of the south, including a few towns. The murderous Caliphate of ISIS (DAESH) is apparently also making some inroads, but nothing on a military scale yet.
There are also, like in the North Yemen, tribal undercurrents and conflicts in “both” parts now, actually in “all” parts of Yemen.

So, the free-for-all starts. So, whether you are an Arab, a Muslim, or otherwise: turn off your conscience, stifle your emotions, harden your heart, get some popcorn, and watch the bloody tragedy………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

About Wild Houthis, AQAP in PDRY, and Forces Loyal to a Zombie……..

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Back to Yemen.
Some Western media have taken to reporting impossible things like: “Houthis are fighting militias loyal to president Abd Rabuh Hadi….”
FYI: they may be fighting the Houthis, but few people, if anyone, in Yemen are loyal to Mr. Hadi. He is not the kind of person that inspires loyalty of anyone outside his own family. Why else would the wily former strongman Ali Abdallah Salih pick him as his vice president? Why else would I occasionally call him Hadi Al Zombie (a lady suggested that last name once)?
Many in the southern provinces of Yemen would fight any authority in Sana’a, because they want to secede back into South Yemen (or maybe the original PDRY). And Al Qaeda (AQAP) Wahhabis are also spread in the south and they would fight the Houthi (heretics) any day. However, I do suspect that the Houthis may have bitten more than they can handle. They may have given their Wahhabi opponents an excuse to foment a sectarian war in Yemen. And they may be overextended by now, far away from their stronghold of S’ada in the north.

So, Abd Rabuh Hadi (Al Zombie) may be a nice guy, he probably is, but forget the nonsense about “forces loyal to Hadi“.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, GCC, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Finally some Sensible Advice on Yemen for Obama………

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“The so-called Houthis (a name the group doesn’t use) who have seized power in Yemen’s capital have Iranian friends but the relationship is unclear and we should not jump to facile assumptions of a close Iranian alliance. We need understanding of what the Houthis seek, whether we share interests and whether our financial and military assistance can help leverage political stabilization; the kind of judgments that can only be made on the ground in an evolving situation. The Saudis have strong interests in Yemen and strong influence with some tribes. We should try to cooperate with the Saudis because of their strong influences, our broad relationship with them and the depth of their interest. But we cannot rely on their or anyone else’s analysis…………..”

The Saudis, especially those along the Red Sea, are historically and tribally and in some cases genetically tied to Yemen. But their rulers have always been proprietary about Yemen: in the 1930s they stole a big chunk of northern Yemen and in the 1960s they armed and funded tribes that fought the Republican regime and the Egyptian army.

Yet they have also always kept Yemen at arms length in terms of their own collective arrangements. When the Saudi King Abdullah, in a moment of passing madness in 2011, invited faraway Morocco and humorless Jordan to apply for GCC membership, he ignored Yemen. Yemen received some GCC aid over the years, but apparently not enough to lift its economy, and local divisions and corruption took care of the rest.

The GCC princes and potentates basically appointed General Hadi as president of Yemen, although they had to swallow and accept the local corrupt Muslim Brotherhood (Islah) as his partners. I know, he won with an astounding 99.8% of the vote, barely below the 100% of the vote a king or a tribal ruler in the GCC normally wins his non-elections (at birth).
The Houthis may have bitten more than they can chew or swallow with their new move in Sana’a. Trying to rule ALL of Yemen, even with willing strong allies, is as tough as trying to rule ALL of Afghanistan (without American military support). They apparently know that: they seem eager to compromise and share power, as indicated by their proposed 500 member council.

The Saudis and the other GCC potentates have their own interests in Yemen. In some cases they are colored by fears and reasonable worries of Iranian influence at their southern flank, in other cases they are colored by deep Wahhabi sectarian prejudices. One thing is certain: they are never concerned about democracy and freedom, unless it is to oppose them. Some of the potentates might be delusional enough to feel that they can now make a deal with their wayward Al-Qaeda kin (AQAP) to salvage influence in Yemen after cutting aid.

The article has some good sensible advice for President Obama. As for the positions of some members of the U.S. Congress and the Senate, they can be influenced by lack of information, or by moneyed lobbyist pressure, or both.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

Yemen War: the Wild Bunch vs. the Hopelessly Corrupt vs. Al Qaeda……..

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“Yemen’s powerful Shiite Houthi rebels shelled the residence of the country’s embattled president Tuesday and simultaneously swept into the presidential palace in the capital, Sanaa, as a top military commander warned that a full-fledged “coup” was underway. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was inside the residence as it came under “heavy shelling” for half an hour but he was unharmed and protected by guards, officials said. In New York, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting over the chaos in Sanaa. The shelling was a dramatic development that put the U.S.-backed Hadi into a precarious position and represented the starkest challenge to his authority…………”

As of now it is not clear what is exactly happening in Sana’a, except that there is some fighting around the presidential palace today. It has been a relatively wild country outside Sana’a and Aden and a few other larger towns. Regime officials claim today that there is a Houthi coup, the Houthis claim they were attacked first by the ‘other side’.

The Houthis have controlled the capital for several months, although Al-Qaeda and some other tribal groups have tried to challenge their hold and slow their recent expansion south. They are depicted by most Arab and Western media as a wild tribal group from the wild north (of North Yemen). Some are also beginning to stress their new reported ties to the Iranian regime, a fact that worries the Saudis next door since they fought and lost a little war with the Houthis a few years ago.
The regime of Generalissimo Abd Rabu (Worshiper of His God) Hadi, which is just a continuation of every other Yemeni regime since 1962, is as corrupt as any in Yemeni history. Probably more because he has been even more beholden to the Al Ahmar tribal military oligarchs. The regime has completely failed to stem Al-Qaeda to the south in recent years. In fairness, nor has the American drone bombing campaign. The Houthis, who also mostly fight Al-Qaeda, started a surge that was too much for the regime and their Salafi foes, given that much of the military refused to fight them.

The wild looting of some leaders palaces also exposed the degree of corruption in that very poor country. The UN Security Council is reported meeting today in emergency on Yemen. Not sure what they can do. Maybe they will slap new sanctions on everybody. It will not mean much to anybody inside Yemen.
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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

WTF? UN to Sanction Yemen Opposition Leaders, Charles and Hollande in Saada………

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“Lithuanian U.N. Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaite, chair of the council’s Yemen sanctions committee, said all 15 members had agreed to blacklist Saleh and Houthi rebel military leaders Abd al-Khaliq al-Huthi and Abdullah Yahya al Hakim. The three men are now subject to a global travel ban and asset freeze. Saleh has denied seeking to destabilize Yemen and his party warned after a meeting on Thursday that any sanctions on the former president or “even waving such a threat would have negative consequences on the political process.”…….. The United States submitted a formal request to the Yemen sanctions committee a week ago for Saleh and the Houthi leaders to be the first people designated…………”

Years ago some politicians in the United States often warned of “world government” encroaching on national sovereignty. They were usually conservative Republicans who were terrified of a UN-type world regime that would interfere in domestic US affairs. Some of them opined that it was part of an international conspiracy to dominate the world. They were considered ‘the crazies‘ in mainstream US media in those days. Now some of them run the asylum show.

Isn’t this exactly what the UN and the USA are doing now in places like Yemen? And can the UN really force various opposed Yemeni factions to follow international dictate on internal matters? And why does the UN and world powers not try to solve other ‘domestic’ problems with sanctions, as in Egypt and Bahrain? 

I have posted here before that sanctioning the Houthis is a meaningless  gesture. Unless it is a prelude to a more muscular intervention against them. As far as I know the Houthis don’t own properties in Europe or New York; they don’t shop in Paris and London, and they don’t spend their vacations in Nice or Geneva. They certainly don’t purchase their weapons from the West; otherwise Mr. Cameron and Prince Chuck Al Windsor and M. Hollande would be as regular visitors to Saada as they are to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Yemen

Islamist Reform: Joking with the Arabic Language in Yemen……..

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Until a few weeks ago the main party or bloc that wielded power in Yemen, actually mostly in Sanaa, was called “Islah”. Islah is dominated by the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, along with some other tribal and Islamist allies. So far so good, but the real joke starts with the word “Islah” which means “reform” in Arabic (when you reform or repair something you are doing Islah: got that?). No reform was seen in Yemen under Islah and its allies. Now the Houthis and allies are also talking reform, no doubt according to their own definition of reform.

In politics and business, poor Yemen is not different from much of the rest of its neighborhood. In the usual Orwellian Arab fashion, reform means corruption, patriotism means acquiescing in repression, unity means tribalism, stability means stagnation. The de facto ruling family of the capital of this Yemen were the Al Ahmar, from one of the largest tribes in Northern Yemen. President Generalisimo Abd Rabu Hadi (a.k.a Al Zombie) was as much a figurehead leader then, a few weeks ago, as he is now under the Houthi militias. Even with his 99.8% of the vote in 2012. (He still beat Egypt’s Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi who could only eke out 97.5% of the vote, still beat the hapless Morsi who had won only about 51% against a Mubarak crony, and he even beat the recent bete noir of the West, Bashar Al Assad and his paltry 88%).

Yemen is like Afghanistan: political matters are inevitably settled (or unsettled) in their own fashion. Foreign intervention, be it Saudi, Iranian, or American can only influence developments, not shape them. Foreign intervention is not decisive beyond the short term. Egyptians learned that costly lesson in the 1960s and the Saudis have learned it again and again in recent years. Ancient Ethiopian and Persian invaders also learned that lesson many centuries ago. The GCC-Western arranged transfer of power in 2012 has apparently failed as much as any other foreign intervention. It was never taken much seriously, and now it is dead even in Sanaa.

Yemen, the alleged source and genesis of the original Arabian tribes is largely ignored and shunned by its closest Arab neighbors. The Saudis, in a moment of royal madness, briefly invited faraway Morocco and Jordan to join the GCC in 2011. But not Yemen. Yemen is best left alone by outsiders.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Yemen

A Tale of Two of the Wars in Yemen……..

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I saw the following two headlines on Twitter this morning. I believe they were about the same clashes in the multifaceted multipronged civil wars of Yemen:

  • Alarabiya (Saudi news and propaganda network) headline:  “BREAKING- Dozens killed in clashes between Houthis and tribesmen in Yemen’s Ibb, Al Arabiya correspondent reports”.
  • Press TV (Iranian news and propaganda network): “At least 250 people are killed in fighting between Houthis and al-Qaeda-linked militants in Yemen”.

So, one side’s Al-Qaeda is the other side’s tribesmen.
The truth? The Saudis and their allies were never comfortable with the Islah-tribal regime. Even though they helped set up the sham elections of 2012 that set up the not-so-new regime. Generalisimo Abd Rabu Hadi Al Zombie won an astounding 99.8% of the votes, embarrassing even by Arab standards (Al Sisi won less than 98% in Egypt). The Saudis like the tribal part: they have spent decades bribing tribes and their elders across the Arab world, from Yemen to Iraq and Syria. They don’t like the Islah part and not only because the word means “reform” in Arabic, which means that it is in reality meaningless in Arab politics.

The Islah is also dominated by the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood, MB. The MB have bad relations with almost all Gulf GCC rulers now, except for some ambiguity with the Bahrain ruling family. Now the Saudis also worry about their “own” who have set up shop in Yemen, the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

But I suspect that the Saudis worry the most now about the Houthi “rebels”, as the media calls them. They worry about them mainly because they are an offshoot but divergent branch of the Shi’a sect. Saudis have never cottoned up to Shi’as getting involved in politics (not that they like anybody other than princes in politics). They have had past clashes with the Houthis in which the superbly-armed but battle-incompetent Saudi armed forces were trounced. And they worry about an Iranian connection, about being pressured by the mullahs from the south. The Iranians, for their part, have been crowing about the Houthi ‘victories’. Which raises Saudi suspicions about Tehran’s ties with the new masters of Sana’a. But things are fluid in Yemen, too many variables working there, too many local and foreign forces. Nothing is certain.

There has been some propaganda ‘stuff’ in the media about risks to the Bab El-Mandab and Red Sea maritime traffic. But that is probably just propaganda to get Western ‘special’ attention focused more on the Houthis and less on AQAP (or the tribals as Alarabiya calls them these days).

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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