Category Archives: Syria

Syrian Elections: Free World and Free Saudi Arabia and Free Qatar and a Future President Assad…….

      


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Ahmad Al Jarba, the Saudi-appointed head of the Syrian National Coalition, has insisted that the “free world” provide the Syrian opposition with the means to fight Bashar al Assad. But the “free world” is already supporting his coalition. Saudi Arabia and Qatar and a few other democratic members of the “free world” have been pouring money, weapons, and Salafi Jihadis into Syria for three years. You can’t get any freer than the princes and potentates. They are “free” to do whatever they want in their countries. They are free to loot whatever they want. They are free to silence, shut up, anyone they want, and they do.
How can Mr. Al Jarba claim that the “free world” does not support him and his allied groups and militias?
Meanwhile Mr. Al Assad, fresh from a new military victory at Yabroud, is reportedly getting ready to run for a third term as president this year. This no doubt will complicate things. And I am guessing he can win at least as many votes as Al Jarba can, actually much more. As I have written before, Syrians are divided. Anyway, tribal type candidates are not likely to win many votes in the major cities and in Western Syria in general.
Personally, I believe if an Assad must run, it should not be Bashar. Too much bloodshed during his reign, although some of it was spilled by the opposition as well. Little Hafez Al Assad (petit-fils) is probably too young to run. Which leaves Asma Akhras Al Assad as the only plausible candidate. I know she has no goatee (saksooka) and hence will not be easily acceptable to the Saudis. Why else do you think they repress their women so much?……….

Cheers
mhg

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New Sectarian Kids in Town: From Iraq Through Syria and Lebanon………

      


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“The newest inhabitants of the world’s biggest cemetery were killed not here in Iraq but in Syria, where they fought under the green flag of the Middle East’s most potent new Shia Islamic political force, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (League of the Righteous). The militia has been busy readying for the afterlife, buying up more than 2,500 square metres of burial plots and erecting shrines for its fallen. And in Baghdad, nearly 100 miles north, the group has been more occupied with the here and now, imposing its influence on Iraq’s fractured political scene and steadily asserting its will throughout the city’s Shia heartland suburbs. Since the American military left Iraq in December 2011, and within two months of the first national election since then, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq has quietly emerged as one of the most powerful players in the country’s political and public life. Through a mix of strategic diplomacy, aggressive military operations and intimidation – signature methods of its main patron, the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani – the group is now increasingly calling the shots in two countries………………..”

This sounds ominous, this fundamentalist group’s entry complicates thing (religious militias always complicate things they touch, adding one more point of contention). Yet something like it has been predicted for almost three years. Once the Syrian uprising, which had legitimate demands in 2011, became a mainly sectarian enterprise as a Saudi-Qatari proxy war. 

All this might be one factor behind the ratcheting up of Salafi terrorist attacks in Iraq and their recent expansion into Lebanon. It is partly an attempt by their patrons and financiers to try and reset things in both countries and see if something works in either country. A Shi’a-dominated government in Baghdad has always been treated in some Arab capitals, especially among the potentates of the Persian Gulf and their Salafi allies, as a ‘loss of Iraq’. As if that country has changed its skin and become something else. It takes a lot of petro-money to run a sustained terrorist enterprise of kind that has been murdering Iraqis. That might explain why a frustrated prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki openly accused both Saudi Arabia and Qatar of fomenting and supporting terrorism



The
other angle is to try and get Hezbollah to pull its forces of Syria. Presumably the idea is that Lebanese deaths from terrorism will create popular pressures on Hezbollah to pull out. The ideal goal is to shift the allegiance of most Lebanese Shi’as away and toward ‘other’ politicians. But that is now as likely as pigs being 
declared halal and kosher and starting to fly. Those ‘other’ politicians are either discredited remnants (feloul) of past Shi’a feudal lords of the South or some known flunkies (a few politicians and clerics) in the pay of the Al Saud princes.

Of course all this can shift again if only Hassan Nasrallah takes down the picture of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that is probably hanging in his office and replaces it with a picture of the Saudi king.

Cheers
mhg

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Revival of Religious Intolerance in Syria………

      


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“On December 2, 2013, al-Nusra Front seized the town of Maaloula for a second time. Militants entered the most famous Christian town in Syria, where residents still speak Aramaic, the language of Jesus Christ, and kidnapped nuns from the Greek Orthodox monastery of Mar Takla, in addition to vandalizing several churches. Earlier in June 2013, the historic town first came into the international media spotlight when al-Nusra militants seized it, before being expelled by the Syrian army. While ISIS adopts a hard-line position calling for the immediate wholesale implementation of Sharia provisions on Christians, including demolishing churches, al-Nusra has a less strict attitude. One leader in al-Nusra, speaking to Al-Akhbar, claimed that the group had not found any man, woman, or child in Maaloula, and said, “The residents fled before we entered, with the exception of the nuns.” But a man who identified himself as Abu Sarkis, a leader in the National Defense Committees, told Al-Akhbar that as the Islamist fighters entered Maaloula, they cried “God is Great,” and, “O Christians: Convert to Islam and you will be safe.” He added, “Afterward, Christians were told that they had three options: convert to Islam, pay the jizya [a tribute for non-Muslims], or leave.” It was as though history was repeating itself in the Levant……………….”


It sounds about right, at least in some cases. It all depends on which group or militia captures them. Some of the cutthroats would treat them even worse, much worse, if you get my drift.

The Jihadis pretend they emulate early Muslims. That they try to follow the footsteps of early Islamic conquerors, who gave the peoples of the conquered lands similar options. Which was more merciful than the European conquerors, be they Romans, crusaders, or inquisitors, gave their captive victims. Yet these modern Jihadis are not the same. The ancient Muslims were in line with the practices of their time. These modern Wahhabi Jihadis yearn for another era, an era they think they can relive by resorting to outdated bloodthirsty practices. Speaking of bloodthirsty practices: now if they could get their murderous hands on some cluster bombs or…………..
Cheers
mhg

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BYOT Party in Montreux: your Pocket Guide to Geneva on Syria………

      


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The Geneva (actually Montreux) conference on Syria was finally held, after many false starts. Ministers, princes, potentates, and rebels all showed up. They say nearly thirty countries and organizations were invited, or just
crashed the party. It is not clear why 30, unless they mean all the
disparate and desperate Syrian opposition groups and militias and
various Arab potentates. The countries and parties and their interests
could have been represented by only three parties: Secretary Kerry for the
Friends of the Syrian Opposition, the Syrian regime, Russia for the
Friends of the Syrian Regime, and Secretary General Moony of the UN. Oh,
make that four parties: I left out France, since the French still have
the usual Anglo-Saxon complex and need to have their own representative.
It was like a BYOT party at some college. Here is a summary of the highlights and the various positions:

  • The Syrian Opposition (some of it) to Bashar Al Assad: ‘Step down and let us take over’.
  • The Qatari Minister: ‘Yeah, you’re supposed to be a dead man walking. Three years now!’.
  • Syrian government reps: ‘ForgetAboutIt! We are running in the elections‘.
  • Saudi Prince Saud Al Faisal (to Saudi-appointed Al Jarba of the Syrian SNC): ‘Your Excellency Mr. President
  • Syria’s Waleed Al Mu’allim (muttering): ‘LOL, president of the Syrian-Turkish border?’
  • Ahmad Al Jarba: ‘LOL in your Baathist eye. I am the legitimate president of the SNC. Ask His Highness the Prince. It says so on my Twitter account @PresidentJarba’.
  • Secretary John Kerry: ‘We are here to negotiate the overthrow of Al Assad and the easing into power of the opposition, wtf they are‘.
  • Ban Ki-Moon (of the UN): ‘It is a good thing I withdrew my invitation to the Iranians. They would have disrupted the conference, and we would not have gotten any results‘.
  • Hassan Rouhani of Iran: ‘Davos is fun-ner than Montreux or Geneva. Cooler egotistical bastards here, but count your fingers after every handshake‘.
  • Al Zawahri from some cave in Pakistan: ‘Next year or the year after in Geneva‘.

Cheers
mhg

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A Syrian Caesar on the Crossing of another Rubicon toward Geneva……….

      


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“The bodies he photographed since the civil war began, showed signs of starvation, brutal beatings, strangulation, and other forms of torture and killing. The defector who was codenamed “Caesar” by the inquiry team had, during the course of his work, smuggled out some tens of thousands of images of corpses so photographed by his colleagues and himself. “Caesar” did not see the torture or executions himself, but photographed the bodies afterward. The report explains, “The reason for photographing executed persons was twofold: First to permit a death certificate to be produced without families requiring to see the body thereby avoiding the authorities having to give a truthful account of their deaths; second to confirm that orders to execute individuals had been carried out.” That is to say, the Baath officials who ordered these 11,000 executions of prisoners of war were afraid that prison guards would take bribes to release the prisoners and just report them dead………….”

In the summer of 2011 I thought the Libyan revolt was becoming a lengthy civil war like Spain. But that was before NATO, Bernard-Henri Levy, John McCain, Qatar, and the UAE intervened to liberate that country. I have also compared the Syrian civil war to the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s. Syria is almost as ugly as Spain was in those years, almost. I have compared the two wars in the past, in an older post in 2011 here and then in another post in 2012 here. There was also another one with the same theme last year. But Spain was not a sectarian war, it was an ideological rehearsal for World War II.
Both
sides in Syria have committed atrocities. But the regime almost certainly does it on a much larger scale than the opposition, simply because it has more destructive weapons and more prisons at its disposal, as well as more security agents. And, like all established Arab regimes, it has a more efficient bureaucracy of repression. The regime has a long history as a police state, while the opposition groups are just beginning, already aspiring to start their own future police state, no doubt using the experience of its Arab supporters and Wahhabi allies. The opposition militias have killed less, but they probably aspire to kill many more (of regime supporters and people of other faiths).
Still, one hell of a timing for this so-called Caesar to cross the Rubicon now while the Geneva talks are in session. One thing about the Syrian opposition and their supporters: they know how to time their ‘exposés‘ and leaked photos and videos for maximum effect.

Cheers
mhg

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Syria: the Strange Ban Ki-Moon Geneva Rollercoaster Ride, Hollande’s Polygamy………..

      


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A strange series of events regarding the Syrian civil war this past weekend:

  • Late weekend United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon gives a presser and invites Iran to attend the Geneva talks on Syria, surprising some of the “Friends of the Syrian Opposition”.
  • The Obama Administration professes surprise and sort of objects strongly, only sort of.
  • Saudi princes and other potentates object strongly but not openly.
  • Their proxy Mr. Al Jarba objects (he calls himself, I think rather presumptuously, @PresidentJarba on Twitter). Opposition groups and militias and gangs and kidnappers threaten to boycott the meeting and keep Assad in power for five more years.
  • Mufti Shaikh Al Al objects, or he should if he knows what is good for him. But he declines to issue a fatwa.
  • The Israelis probably object on the principle that whatever helps Iran is bad for them, and vice versa. Or maybe I just think so, my knee-jerk reaction.
  • Al Qaeda and its Syrian fronts also object, or so I assume. 
  • Francois Hollande of France probably also objects, as does his current main squeeze, his former main squeeze, and his future main squeezes (the French can be more polygamous than we can be, and often they are, but they don’t admit it).
  • My suspicious mind is almost certain that the prime minister of Bahrain (44 or so years in office and going) also objects strongly through his corpulent foreign minister who is also his nephew or cousin. I still can’t figure out WTF he has got to do with all this.
  •  
  • So, guess what happens next? Bingo! Ban Ki-Moon suddenly implodes: he discovers overnight that maybe Iran should not attend Geneva. He withdraws his invitation for Iran to the Geneva meeting on Syria. A dis-invitation under pressure.
  • The Iranians, who would love to attend, act as if they are not interested in attending. They go further: after being dis-invited they claim that that they would not attend a meeting
    that imposes conditions and prerequisites on them.

  • Saudi semi-official Alarabiya headlines that now the Syrian ‘opposition’ groups will attend Geneva, some of them for the talks, others to buy good Swiss chocolate at duty-free prices. Actually they would attend or not if and when their Saudi bosses tell them to.
  • End of the story for now, until the next Syria meeting later this year. Or maybe sometime next year, or the year after.

Cheers
mhg

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Vice President of Syrian National Coalition: SNC to Attend Assad’s Funeral in Montreux………

      


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“The main Syrian opposition group in exile promised on Saturday that it will not “compromise” its principles after it finally decided to attend the peace talks in Switzerland next week. “We will go to Geneva 2 without compromising any principles of our revolution,” Ahmed al-Jarba, head of the Syrian National Coalition, told reporter in a press conference in Istanbul. Jarba said that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will “enter its funeral,” when attending the conference……………”

Mr. Jarba is going to Geneva because he was told to do so by his foreign bosses. He can’t help using Baathist jargon (mainly Iraqi Baathist jargon like the talk about ‘funerals’, etc)) when talking about the regime, but that comes from a lifetime of growing up listening to them.
 
He now calls himself ‘President Jarba’ on his Twitter account @PresidentJarba), something that might piss off a certain Saudi prince as well as Bashar Al-Assad and many opposition militia commanders. He is actually the vice president of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), representing only some of the Syrian opposition, especially part of the Saudi faction, but hardly all of it. Everyone knows that the SNC has a king and a president, neither of whom is named Jarba. That the king of the Syrian National Coalition is named Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz, that the ‘president’ of SNC is Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

Bandar’s lifelong ambition now is to liberate Syria for Saudi-style freedom and democracy and tolerance and human rights. That might be opposite to the Iranian and Russian ambition which is also to keep Syria for their own style of freedom and democracy and human rights. Both goals are also different from the ambition of French president Francois Hollande who doesn’t give a rat’s derrière about Syrian freedom but whose goal is to keep the Saudis buying weapons and other goods from socialist France in the name of freedom and democracy and human rights, as well as ‘liberté, égalité, infidélité’.
All this means that the Syrian people are now trapped into an unprecedented sectarian confessional regional proxy war, which means they are now truly screwed, more than ever.

BTW: don’t hold your breath about Geneva (actually Montreux). There will be no agreement of course; it is a place to see and to be seen. Perhaps there may be only a deal to meet again in, say, six months which will be extended to nine or twelve months.
Cheers
mhg

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From Iraq to Syria to Iran: the Quest for a Smoking Gun or a Mushroom Cloud or a Slam Dunk or……..

      


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“A series of revelations about the rocket believed to have delivered poison sarin gas to a Damascus suburb last summer are challenging American intelligence assumptions about that attack and suggest that the case U.S. officials initially made for retaliatory military action was flawed. A team of security and arms experts, meeting this week in Washington to discuss the matter, has concluded that the range of the rocket that delivered sarin in the largest attack that night was too short for the device to have been fired from the Syrian government…………..”

Could this be a case of déjà vu all over again (Iraq, Iran, Syria, etc)?Could we be revisiting the same story again this year or next in Iran? You betcha it could and we could.

It is true that this does not prove anyone’s innocence or guilt in the Sarin gas attacks. Yet the suspicion of the whole Sarin claim was there from the outset, at least as far as I am concerned. Even some UN WMD official suggested earlier that the rebels may have used Sarin, but then she went silent. The story and video clips were broadcast initially in Saudi semi-official Alarabiya network, in both cases of reported gas use. Western media picked it up quickly and it became “the story” of the time. The U.S. Congress took it from there.
 

I have expressed doubt from the beginning, and not only because I automatically suspect almost anything that is publicized by Saudi media (I do, I also suspect many things that are published in official Iranian media). Several things did not smell right, were neither halal nor kosher, including the timing: these claims (and revelations) always cam right after the Syrian opposition had suffered big military defeats or were about to be ejected from strategic positions (Qusayr, etc). It also did not make sense to use WMD to kill a few dozen civilians, when bombing and bullets had done the same grizzly “job” in the past without an international outcry and outrage. But all this is not new: I and others have pointed this out during the past year.

No wonder the Obama administration for long insisted on only saying that “Sarin was used in Syria“, without specifying the regime or the opposition as the user. That lasted until it came under pressure from congressional microphone-macho type (of both parties) and the Saudi princes and potentates.
This new report is not conclusive, yet neither were the other reports, apparently. But the long quest continues: for the Smoking Gun, the Mushroom Cloud, the Slam Dunk, the Lost Ark………


Cheers
mhg

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Syria: a Side War Among Worst Enemies, Jarba and Buffalo Selected……

      


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“The two Islamist fighting forces in Syria affiliated with al Qaida on Tuesday appeared to be on the edge of an all-out conflict amid reports that dozens more captured soldiers and civilians have been executed at the hands of the more radical of them, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Abu Mohammad al Julani, who heads the Syrian-based Jabhat al Nusra, or Nusra Front, charged that the rival group had pursued “misguided policies,” “had a significant role in instigating the conflict” and warned: “We will defend ourselves against any aggression directed against us, from whatever the source.” The surprise offensive that Nusra and other Syria-based regime opponents began Friday against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, has forced the Iraq-based group, consisting mainly of foreign volunteers, to abandon many of the bases and towns it occupied in the past six months in northern Syria. Heavy fighting was reported Tuesday………………….”

It is a side war, a Wahhabi vs. Wahhabi battle for control of the Syrian opposition. Speaking of the Syrian opposition: I read that a bunch of members of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) have resigned last week. One source claimed the resignation was in protest against the re-selection of Saudi-appointed chief of SNC, Ahmad Al-Jarba (Badr Buffalo Jamous was appointed his deputy). Another source reports the resignations were a protest against participation in the Geneva “peace talks”.

Even as these meetings are held, even as Western “Friends of Some of Syria’s Opposition” are meeting in Paris, other groups and militias are breaking away. New blocs are formed among the militias, like mutations in a stagnant pond. Some breakaway groups are holding their own ‘conferences’, in Spain and other venues. The Syrian “opposition”, all of them including secular exiles and Muslim Brotherhood and armed rebels and Jihadis and kidnappers and warlords, are their own worst enemies.

Cheers
mhg

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Bandar Goes to Washington, May Seek Syrian Presidency…….

      


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AlQuds AlArabi of London (reportedly still Qatari-financed), reports that chief of Saudi Intelligence Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Al-Saud is heading to the United States for medical treatment. It doesn’t say what ails him, but if afterwards he goes to Morocco for recuperation, that would be an ominous sign. Other princes reportedly have ended their Moroccan recuperation ‘feet first’, as the saying goes.
The daily also reports that the prince, who is the effective leader of the Syrian opposition and Lebanon’s March 14 bloc, will use the trip to smooth over Saudi-American relations. Among topics to be discussed: the Arab Peace Initiative for Israel-Palestine (actually it was a Thomas Friedman Initiative which the Saudis hijacked), Syria (Saudis want to show that they can also selectively side against some of the Jihadis fighting against Al-Assad, even as the opposition continues its happy disintegration). The report claims that relations between Washington and Riyadh warmed up after American officials, finally, announced that Iran will not be attending the Geneva 2 conference on Syria. Having apparently blocked Iran from attending Geneva (on Syria but not on the nuclear issue), the Saudi goal now is to prevent Bashar Al-Assad from running for president next year, presumably for fear that he might defeat Prince Bandar in the election…………

Cheers
mhg

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