“Tens of thousands of Assad supporters flocked to the hilltop embassy in a town south-east of the Lebanese capital to cast ballots, snarling traffic outside, keeping schoolchildren trapped in buses for hours and forcing some schools to cancel scheduled exams. Lebanon has more than a million Syrian refugees. “With our souls, with our blood, we will sacrifice for you, Bashar” and “long live Syria!” were some of the chants heard from many in the crowd. Despite the carnage in Syria, the country’s president has retained significant support among large sections of the population, particularly among Christians, Alawites and other religious minorities……………”
Comparing Middle East elections and regional and international reactions to them can be enlightening and educational:
Remember when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won re-election as president of Iran in 2009? He won with only about 57% of the vote, allegedly with some “irregularities”. There was a huge media and political circus from Riyadh through London and Paris all the way to Washington and New York. Even absolute tribal ruling families from Riyadh through Doha to Manama and Abu Dhabi lamented the sorry state of democracy in Iran. It was about several weeks of “tsk tsk”. Even Secretary of State Hillary Clinton opined publicly that Iran was now a “military dictatorship” (she was talking about Iran and not about Egypt or China). When Rouhani won his election in 2013 it was a different story.
Back to Egypt and her perpetually funny non-elections under both Mubarak and Sisi (not under Morsi: he won a close election and fairly, maybe because the Mubarak bureaucracy was still running Egypt and tried to lose him the election). Now Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi apparently unofficially has his 98% victory (Al Ahram early estimates), in true Arab style (not as perfect as North Korean style, but close).
On to Syria. The cheeky Bashar Al Assad is also running in his own election in Syria, but he has more opponents on the ballot than Al Sisi. The shocking thing may be that percentage voter turnout among Syrians is probably much higher than in Egypt: that is what it looks like now. Even Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon, most of them Sunnis, are voting heavily, no doubt most of them for Al Assad whose days are supposedly numbered. The media pictures from refugee camps and from Beirut and Amman and other places show long lines of Syrian exiles voting for the man whose actions supposedly made them refugees. Which is puzzling, given that they are allegedly supposed to be eager for the Al Saud and Al Thani and Al Hollande and Al McCain and a bunch of Al Others to liberate their country for democracy.
Meanwhile Al Sisi, the newest dictator on the bloc and his henchmen have tried to extend voting time and threaten people to vote in order to avoid embarrassing low turnout.
When it is all over we will have the expected predictable results, with Al Sisi matching or perhaps outdoing Mubarak in his “victory” margin in the upper nineties. Early results claim he won by nearly 98% but still less than Kim Jon Un’s victory margin and less than the Saudi King’s margin.
The Western powers and others will sigh of relief and welcome the new “democratic” order in Egypt, except that it is an old order, actually older than the old order in Syria. And it is also no more democratic than the one in Syria.
Then there is divided Iraq, which is beset with Wahhabi terrorist bombings almost every day, yet it manages to complete its elections. They are imperfect and tinged with both sectarian and tribal prejudices, but they don’t seem to need to coerce and threaten people to vote.
“What if they gave a war and nobody came? Why, then, the war would come to you” Bertolt Brecht
“What if they gave an election and nobody came? Why, then, the election would come to you” I, Moi, ich
“Egypt’s election commission on Tuesday extended voting in the presidential election for a third day amid reported low turnout. Meanwhile government officials, media and the military — worried that turnout was weaker than expected — harangued voters to go to the polls. The front-runner, former army chief Abdel Fattah El Sisi, is trying to garner an overwhelming show of support. Monitoring groups and Sisi’s rival candidate reported low turnout by early Tuesday. Closer to sunset, numbers appeared to be increasing. The election commission said it was extending the vote through Wednesday, citing complaints that migrant workers have been unable to vote where they reside because of laws making it difficult to do so. Election commission officials warned that they would implement a rarely applied rule imposing fines on all able-bodied voters who do not cast ballots. The fine, $72, is a hefty sum for most Egyptians…………..”
If this Aljazeera report is true about the fine, it is a first in the Arab world. Normally Arab rulers go to gruesome lengths to keep people from voting freely: just look at the ‘secret’ numbers of political prisoners in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Egypt, Syria, etc, etc. Punishing people for not voting in Field Marshal Sisi’s republic (not voting for Sisi of course: they cretainly would not want Morsi voters to vote). Imagine, some day it is possible that we may see Arab citizens get punished for not engaging in politics. That would be quite a switch.
In any case, whatever official figures claim, turnout has been dismal for these controlled sham elections. It looks like mostly Egypt’s middle-aged and elderly have gone out and voted. Especially elderly women many of whom reportedly see Al Sisi as some kind of a sex symbol. Others are still basking in the glow of his great medical achievements, like recent cures for Hepatitis and HIV. The young Egyptians, who staged one uprising in 2011 for freedom then supported a military coup in 2013, have largely stayed home.
An Egyptian daily newspaper quotes a high government official that Saudi Arabia has postponed delivery of any new aid to Egypt until after the results of the coming presidential elections are ‘known’. The official is quoted that a ‘huge’ financial aid package will be announced after the victory of Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi is assured (just in case there is any doubt about the kind of election they are staging in Egypt). This new aid is promised to surpass all previous aid packages to Egypt………
The Saudis are sending a clear message: the princes will put money into Egypt as long as the Egyptian people are obedient and elect the ‘Saudi’ choice for president. This is quite a bold shift: it is a public downgrading of Egypt’s status and a new Wahhabi chain around the Egyptian neck. Gamal Abdel Nasser is probably having another heart attack wherever he is now. Even Anwar Sadat and King Farouk are shaking in the grave. Even under Mr. Mubarak the Saudis did not so openly and boldly interfere in the fake elections he held every few years.
Theofficial did not explain what guarantees Egyptian voters will have that the Saudi aid will be forthcoming if when Sisi wins. When asked if the Egyptians can dump Sisi if the Saudi money is not up to what was promised the official may have smirked and said: “They can try, but we can’t guarantee anything”.
Sisi, for his part, has been trying on his coming role as president. He is going around wearing a civilian suite and talking to himself in the mirror, repeating “yes we can, yes I can”. Yet what would he do in the improbable and impossible case that he loses and pigs start flying? Will he continue wearing the suit? Will he show up at the barracks wearing military garb and order a new military coup? Will they obey him? The answer is: yes, yes, yes. Which in Spanish would be Si Si Si.
“A court in southern Egypt on Monday decreed a mass death sentence for nearly 700 people, including the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, the movement of Egypt’s ousted Islamist president. On the same day, another Egyptian court banned the April 6 movement, which was among the primary engines behind the landmark 2011 uprising against President Hosni Mubarak.
Egypt’s sharp turn toward authoritarianism in the nearly 10 months since an interim government took power has provoked expressions of concern from human rights groups and Western governments, but little in the way of meaningful punitive actions against the military-backed regime………………”
The best scenario, an optimistic scenario, in this impending Egyptian butchery is that it is just a political show. They are setting the stage for a great show of mercy by the new dictator. The Kangaroo courts continue their job, preparing the way for a new dictator for life in Cairo. He, Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi will probably show “restraint” and “mercy” after pleas from allies and suppliers in the West. He will likely show calculated moderation by commuting most of these hundreds, thousands by then, of death sentences to life in prison. All these people, including tens of thousands awaiting trial, will end up in prison for life simply because they exercised their right of protest.
The Western world will be relieved for it, and it will applaud this military justice that it would not accept in the West. But that will be okay: these are only Arabs and in some places life can be cheap and freedom might be overrated. Cheers
mhg
Egyptian media report that Shaikh Doctor Mohammed Mukhtar Gom’a, Egyptian minister of Islamic Awqaf seems excited about the new prize won by the Saudi King Abdullah. He has congratulated his Majesty King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz, Servant of the Two Holy Shrines, for winning the Shaikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahayan Prize and being picked as the Cultural Personality of our Universe, via Abu Dhabi.
The minister, was fresh from a visit to an event in Paris about Mecca. He is quoted that he has personally told French president Francois Hollande, in Paris, that Egypt shall continue on the road to cultural exchange and that Egypt fully supports the Saudi war on the triple threats of terrorism, democracy, and free speech. No doubt M. Hollande was ecstatic to hear that, perhaps he was inspired, and who knows what he did after that: after all, he is in Paris which is neither Cairo nor Riyadh. If you get my drift. The Shaikh Doctor said his position is reciprocation for the strong Saudi support for Egypt in all international forums and fora and wherever else the wise king deems appropriate. (He did not, however, add that his position would be different otherwise).
Shaikh Doctor Gom’a did not mention if he ever met and exchanged views on culture, terrorism, and weapons deals with the top French first ladies of recent times: Segolyne Royal, Valerie Trierweiler, or Julie Gayet.
I almost forgot to mention the real biggie (politically speaking): Marine Le Pen…….
“Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika appeared set to win re-election for another five years on Friday after a vote opponents dismissed as a stage-managed fraud to keep the ailing leader in power. Sitting a wheelchair, Bouteflika cast his vote on Thursday in a rare public appearance since suffering a stroke last year that has raised doubts about whether, after 15 years in power, he is fit enough to govern the North African oil state. Official results were scheduled to be released later on Friday by the interior ministry, but Bouteflika’s allies on Thursday were already claiminga landslide victory……………………”
So, it has been three plus years on since the Arab uprisings started in Tunisia in December of 2010 and spread eastward. Let us look at the situation now:
In Algeria, president Bouteflika (father of teflika, wtf that be) ‘wins’ a fourth or fifth term of presidency today. At this rate he will be in power when he becomes eligible for a place in the Egyptian Museum at Cairo or in a basement corner of the Louvre where the mummies are kept.
Abd Rabbuh Hadi bin Zombie of Yemen won 98% of the vote last time in an election that the GCC potentates declared was clean and free and democratic. He may be getting ready to run again, unless a U.S. drone mistakes him for an Al Aqaeda zombie. Meanwhile the allegedly deposed Ali Abdallah Saleh is not far from the center of power, very likely plotting something or another.
Egypt is getting ready to “elect”, by the usual landslide, Generalisimo Field Marshal Sisi bin Mubarak Al Saud. Interim non-leader Adly Mansour Al Zombie will vanish; he will go back into the vast caverns of Mr. Mubarak’s everlasting bureaucracy.
Bashar Al Assad will apparently ‘win’ another term later this year in Syria. Before you start guffawing think of this: given the sorry state of the opposition Jihadis and the divisive fear they have sown inside Syria he actually might win an election by a plurality (probably not by a majority). Quite a feat given the bloody mess his country is in.
Nouri Al Maliki of Iraq may win yet another term as prime minister, unfortunately. That depends on parliamentary election results and how the leaders of the various factions and the Kurds feel. Ayad Allawi will again be the favorite candidate of the Baathists and the neighboring Arab potentates. But as I have fawtad years ago: he will never become prime minister of Iraq.
A gaggle of Lebanese right-wing generals and warlords are fighting for the ceremonial presidency of that country. What is at stake? The figurehead president gets to name a couple of minor cabinet members and he gets a fat Saudi check to help him pick sides.
On the Gulf. The would-be tribal liberators and bearers of democracy to Syria hold tight to absolute power at home, with a little help from their oligarch friends. From Riyadh to Abu Dhabi and Manama, they cling to every morsel of power. Even the unloved prime minister of Bahrain who has been in power for some 42 years. One of my suspect sources tells me he has vowed to leave office the old fashioned way: feet first and straight to Boot Hill.
No need to go over the besotted Sudan, whose president of some 27 years in power is usually wanted by some international criminal court or another but is traveling across the Middle East quite freely.
Then there are the other two bulwarks of the Arab League, Mauretania and Somalia. Frankly I have no idea WTF is going on over there. I assume each of these two countries has a president or a wazir or sublime port or someone like that who rules or pretends to.
I forgot about the Comoros, but maybe next year, after I pay a visit to Moroni.
On the bright side, there are rumors that Gambia may be the next country to join the Arab League and the Gulf GCC. They would need a Saudi invitation for both (even the French would need a Saudi invitation for that). Which has me wondering what is happening in Banjul or even in Pakalinding nowadays.
“The Bahraini Arabic language newspaper al-Wasat reported on Wednesday Apr. 9 that a Cairo court began to consider a case brought by an Egyptian lawyer against Qatar accusing it of being soft on terrorism. The “terrorism” charge is of course a euphemism for supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have designated a “terrorist” organisation and are vowed to dismantle. The two new partners and the UAE also loathe Qatar for hosting and funding Al-Jazeera satellite TV. The continued incarceration of the Al-Jazeera journalists and dozens of other journalists on trumped up charges is no coincidence. The court case is symptomatic of the current Saudi-Egyptian relationship in their counter-revolution against the 2011 pro-democracy upheavals………….The pro-autocracy partnership between the Egyptian military junta and the Saudi ruling family goes beyond their opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood and the perceived threat of terrorism. It emanates from the autocrats’ visceral opposition to democracy and human rights, including minority and women’s rights.…………… According to media and Human Rights Watch reports, at least 15,000 secular and Islamist activists are currently being held in Egyptian prisons, without having been charged or convicted…………….”
Egypt is rapidly going back to pre-2011. Soon it will be more Mubarakist than it was even under Mubarak: at least they could joke about Mubarak in private. Generalisimo Al Sisi is not president yet, he is not even a minister anymore, he is allegedly just a private citizen candidate. But mocking him can land you in prison. Now they are going back to the absurd court cases brought by lawyers with political leanings against citizens and against foreign countries they disagree with. Even the country’s institutions are back to the old habit of bending backward, or maybe bending forward, to accommodate the Arab potentates across the Red Sea. Will anybody dare bring a lawsuit against the military for overthrowing an elected government and for killing unarmed civilians? Will anybody sue the foreign princes for arresting Egyptian citizens on trumped-up charges and not bringing them to trial? Will any of the feloul courts hear such cases? Maybe on a day when pigs start flying over Egypt.
Counter-Revolutionary Egypt is now well on its way to becoming a certified Watermelon Country (ديرة بطيخ), as we say back home on the Gulf. As a (ديرة بطيخ), certified by the Secretary General of the Gulf GCC, himself a certified watermelon bureaucrat, it is qualified to apply for membership. But that can wait until Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi starts his thirty years in power. Cheers
mhg
“All Arab political courts are like bad jokes, except to their victims.” Me?
“A son of deposed Islamist president Mohamed Morsi will face trial for alleged possession and use of hashish, judicial sources said on Monday, but no date has yet been fixed. Abdullah Morsi, 19, was arrested on March 1 along with a friend for allegedly possessing two joints while they were in a car parked by the roadside in Qalyubia province north of Cairo. The two were freed the next day pending investigation after agreeing to give urine samples which the prosecution says tested positive. Morsi’s other son Osama has denied the charges against Abdullah, saying the authorities were “fabricating the case” and that his brother’s arrest was an attempt to “defame the family”……………..”
The judicial absurdity does not stop in Cairo, it gets even more absurd by the day. Now they are hounding the family of Morsi, in the true style of Saddam Hussein and his Baathist justice.
I wrote last month that: They are doing it again in Cairo. My special
source, snuck secretly into Cairo, reports that Egyptian courts have
been ordered to add some new charges to the litany of charges against
deposed president Morsi. The elected Mr. Morsi was deposed by a military coup d’etat led by Generalisimo Abdelfattah Al Sisi………..just in case, just to make the case against
Morsi watertight, she reports they have decided to add new charges to
the old ones. The new charges could include contributing to global
warming, African threats of diverting Nile waters, the loss of East
Jerusalem to the Jews (King Hussein is dead), the jump in Syrian war
victims from 75 thousand dead to over 100 thousand dead during his year
in office, topless German tourists switching their sun
bathing-activities from Egypt to Cyprus, as well as any epidemic and natural
disaster that may befall Egypt and neighboring countries. She also reports that they toyed with a new charge against the doomed Morsi……………
Here are some relevant links to this absurd topic:
They are raising the issue of GCC confederation and expansion again. Bahrain shaikhs and elites, their country already almost annexed by Saudi occupation forces and having nothing to lose, are also pushing for it publicly and on social media. Wahhabi liberals on the Persian Gulf, who look to the absolute Saudi princes for LibertéetEgalité etFraternité, are as excited about it as they probably can get excited about anything (save perhaps for one other thing). But as I have been saying since 2011 the Saudi idea ploy of confederation has always been DOA.
There is even a revival of the idea of expansion, even as some claim the original GCC may be unraveling, well maybe at least weakening. At least the long-existing differences cannot be swept under the rug anymore. Just as a couple of GCC countries seem ready to bolt out of the stifling Saudi embrace. Yet there is new absurd talk of Egypt being asked to join: the media told us Al Sisi and a gaggle of Al Nahayans had some sort of joint Jane Fonda military exercises last week.
We know that the Saudi princes have been seeking pliable partners to expand the Gulf GCC. Except that there are no more pliable partners left. They have tried with Jordan in 2011, but then King Abdul in Amman called one of his funny but humorless elections, and the princes don’t cotton up to elections, even funny humorless elections in Jordan. Some GCC potentates quickly and untruthfully claimed they were postponing Jordanian accession until after Ramadan (of 2011). They also invited faraway Morocco to apply for membership, but that was before the King of Morocco called elections which were won by what passes for the Moroccan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Alas, Morocco has no Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi who can set things right after undesirable election results.
Now rumors have it that the princes have been toying with reliably counter-revolutionary Egypt as a possible member, initially that was on the table in 2012 as a ploy to keep the Muslim Brotherhood from winning the last election. Some wags have even claimed that since Crimea voted for secession the princes had thought that maybe they can get that region to join the GCC, but Vladimir Putin quickly beat them to it with this annexation thing.
Back to the drawing board. Morocco and Jordan and Egypt may still look good as targets of Saudi wooing. But speaking of wooing: the Saudi princes are notorious polygamists, much more so than any Westerner, even a French president like Francois Hollande. Polygamy can be added as their middle name: Polygamous Kingdom of Saudi Arabia sounds correct while “Polygamous French Republic” sounds so wrong even if true, especially in French. I suspect, nay I know, that all of these one-night-stand candidates have less chance of joining the GCC than Turkey has of joining the European Union. Less chance now than the State of Mississippi has of joining the Organization of Islamic Countries. All of them together have about as much chance of becoming GCC members as I have of becoming the next Mufti of Saudi Arabia (or a mufti of anywhere else for that matter).
Some in Qatari media, and offshore media owned and those financed by Qatari potentates, keep trying to make mischief. They have been claiming that Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi has hinted in Abu Dhabi that he may be able to solve the mystery of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370. Some Egyptian politicians, terrified that Al Sisi may win the coming presidential elections by the typically Arab 99% of the vote instead of the expected and more respectable 80%, are pushing back. Others have noted that 99% still sounds pretty democratic, if compared to the 100% won last week by Kim Jong Un of North Korea.
Some Al-Azhar cleric added a fatwa that: “Yes, it is possible to win 100% in a democracy. It is possible to win 105% in a democracy under certain circumstances. For example there are cases where the dead have been allowed to vote, and I am not talking about Chicago either………..“.
