Category Archives: Arabian Peninsula

Comparing Cool Apple and a Genocidal Petroleum Oligarchy………

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Reports say that Apple Corporation (AAPL) has about $207 billions in cash (that was before the latest good results came out on Tuesday). All these beautiful useful gadgets, some necessary and some not so necessary, and some American technical ingenuity/creativity have made a lot of money for Apple during the past decade. They may use it to buy back shares, pay more dividends, expand into new products, or acquire subsidiaries.

Reports also claim that Saudi Arabia used to have over $700 billion in foreign exchange (Forex) reserves (its Sovereign Fund managed by its monetary agency SAMA).  All of it from oil revenues. These have probably been depleted by somewhere over $100 billion over the past two years, since the new regime of His Majesty King Salman Bin Abdulaziz and His Royal Highness the Crown Prince to the Crown Prince (and Minister of Defense) Mohammed Bin Salman came to power. The latter is the putative conqueror of Yemen: he has been pouring Saudi money and American (and British) bombs (cluster bombs and otherwise) all over the poor country of Yemen for seven months. With the goal of establishing a government to his liking in Sana’a.

Too much power and money can make even the most impotent of potentates blind to past history. All it takes is a tablespoon of foolish vanity, and the rich young Arab princes have plenty of that. Hence this new quagmire in Yemen, which promises to go on long after former president Hadi (Bin Zombie) evacuates his Riyadh hotel suite for wherever the hell he’ll end up. Long after Al Qaeda (the Saudi-led AQAP) expand their newly acquired territory in the South beyond Al Mukalla. Long after the Caliphate of ISIS expand their current use of the porous border to attack civilian Ismailite (quasi-Shi’a) inhabitants of Najran and Jazan.

Hence the new barely-veiled threats by Saudi officials of sending newly hired Arab and African (and Western?) mercenaries into Syria.

The IMF has noted that Saudi reserves could vanish within five years. That is possible if the funds are used at current rates and crude oil prices remain near current low levels. Especially if the need arises to buy public approval with new royal handouts. Especially if the princes continue their costly genocidal war on Yemen and expand their intrusion in Syria into an official military confrontation with their Iranian and Lebanese rivals, even if the “boots on the ground” are rented foreign mercenaries.

Hopefully their reckless policies do not doom the economies of the other Gulf states.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Fibonacci and a Series of a Gaggle of Crown Princes all F(King)………

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“The Fibonacci Sequence: is a series of numbers. The next number is found by adding up the two numbers before it……….” Math is Fun

Saw headline by Saudi News Agency that the “Crown Prince to the Crown Prince” ولي ولي العهد has met with some Lebanese Druze warlord, and discussed regional whatever…..

This is probably a first in the world: an official titled crown prince to another titled crown prince. Just to keep the currently powerful branches of the family dynasty mollified if not satisfied. I tried to figure it out, or rather formalize it as an equation. Mathematically it could be:
Crown Prince= Crown Prince to the King= f(King)
Crown Prince to the Crown Prince= Crown Prince (Crown Prince to the King)= f(Crown Prince to the King))= f(f(King)). Some Math purists might prefer it as: g(f(king)).

Now suppose the family feud in Riyadh and Taif and Jeddah gets more complicated and more entangled among generations and various branches of the princes. There might be a Crown Prince to the Crown Prince of the Crown Prince ولي ولي ولي العهد . That would end up being: y(g(f(King))).

Meanwhile the bloody quagmire of the assault on Yemen continues and the self-inflicted budget deficit grows. There might be a serious split within the tribal ruling classes, one that is hard to cover up. So, it could also get worse, worse-r than the Fibonacci Sequence, but maybe not as long…………

P.S.: f stands for ‘function of'(…….). Nothing nefarious and no pun intended here. Honestly, cross my heart and hope to die.


Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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The Fourth Rail of the West: Saudi Regime as the World’s Third Superpower………

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“Saudi Arabia enjoys a spectacular level of impunity from international accountability. This is not only because it has the world’s richest and largest royal family with influence spread far and wide. And it is not even just about oil, although having a quarter of the world’s pre-fracking energy reserves still engenders utmost deference from those many modern economies that will depend on Gulf oil and gas for as long as the precious black stuff lasts. However, the recent election of Saudi Arabia to the UN Human Rights Council, partly due to a secret vote swap with the UK, seems to have crossed a line. Mainstream eyebrows that have usually looked the other way when it came to the Saudi record on human rights have now been raised. And if that was not enough of an affront, the Saudi UN ambassador has just been selected to chair the influential Human Rights Council “consultative panel” that recommends to the president of the council a short-list of whom shall be appointed as Special Rapporteurs, including on such issues as rights of women, freedom of expression and religious freedom…………..”

When we were kids on the Gulf, a joke was making the rounds back home and in some foreign media. It quoted the late humorless Saudi King Faisal Al Saud that the world was not bi-polar, that there were in fact three superpowers: USA, USSR, and Kuwait. The king was quoted as making an uncharacteristic joke here, perhaps with a tinge of jealousy. At that time Saudi Arabia was not ‘rich’ yet, and Kuwait was the major oil producer and most advanced state on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf.

Now it almost seems that the new uni-polar world has several superpowers. That the Al Saud are often being treated by Western salesmen-leaders as one of them. If not, then they are at least considered untouchable by Western governments. In America they would be one addition to the untouchable issues of politics in Washington: perhaps a ‘fourth rail’ added to the ‘three rails’ of politics. Just look at the record:

  • They behead and crucify people in public, including common criminals, hapless foreign laborers, witches, warlocks, magicians, as well as members of the political opposition who are not of the Wahhabi faith. The only regime that does so with impunity. ISIS (DAESH) cutthroats are correctly criticized by official Western hypocrites when they do that. The Iranian regime is also rightly criticized by official Western hypocrites when it hangs people in groups, including drug dealers and others. But no official criticism is heard anymore, especially from the US, British, and French governments, of the more barbaric Saudi practices.
  • They ban all other religions and religious practices except Wahhabism. The Muslim Shi’a minority are third-class citizens at best, but they are barely tolerated and only because they were in the Eastern Province long before the Wahhabis conquered it during the last century. Only ISIS (DAESH) is more intolerant.
  • For months they have been bombing the poorest Arab country, Yemen, with the latest lethal weapons the Western governments can sell, including cluster bombs. They and their fellow tribal potentates and hired Afro-Arab mercenary regimes. No complaint or criticism is heard from Washington, London, or Paris. In fact I suspect that the targets (the victims) are often picked and located for them by Western intelligence and satellite technology.
  • This least democratic, most repressive and backward tribal regime is allowed the chutzpah of claiming to be working to bring democracy and free speech to other countries, especially Syria and Yemen.

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Battle for Aden: the Fatwa Stands……..

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It looks like the alliance of Houthis-Saleh have been pushed back from certain regions around Aden. The Saudi alliance of cluster-bombers are claiming a victory. Former president General Hadi Bin Zombie and his hotel cabinet in Riyadh are also declaring a victory. Everybody is declaring a victory in Aden, except the Houthis. Everybody except those who may have been crucial in achieving that partial ‘victory’: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Southern Independence Movement (Hirak).
Western media are copying Saudi media and claiming a victory for ‘Hadi supporters’. Except that almost all Hadi supporters are not fighters: they are suited politicians and corrupt Islah potentates ensconced in hotels in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The people of Aden are no doubt against the Houthis and Saleh encroaching on their city, but they also remember that General Hadi was sent by Colonel Saleh in 1994 to shell Aden and force it into an unwanted marriage with Sanaa.

The battle of Aden apparently continues, but it is telling that the Hadi ghost cabinet is staying away in the safety of exile. One thing is certain as I predicted months ago. Actually it was almost a fatwa by your truly that Hadi will not return to rule in Sanaa. A serious and irrevocable fatwa, no matter who wins in Aden, no matter who wins in Sanaa.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Monologue in Geneva: another Yemeni GWTW Without Rhett and Scarlett ……..

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According to some Arab media, a small airplane that was sent by the UN to carry the Houthi-Army delegations to the Geneva talks failed to do so because of mutual suspicion. The Houthis and Saleh delegation got suspicious when told the UN plane needed to land for refueling at Jazan (southern Saudi Arabia). They worried the Saudis might grab and take hostage some of the top delegates on any excuse (this won’t be the first time). Especially since there are ‘rumors’ that Mohammad Ali Al-Houthi, a top leader of the movement may head their delegation. The Saudis now force all sanctioned airplanes heading for or taking off at blockaded Sanaa to land at Jazan.

Later Arab reports claimed the Houthi delegation flew through Muscat, Oman, since they only trust the Omanis among all GCC Gulf states. Maybe not quite so: as of Monday there were no Houthi or Yemeni Army delegations in Geneva. Other Arab sources claimed the Houthi jet is stuck in Djibouti because the Egyptian government has denied them the right to overfly Egypt to Europe. The Sisi regime is apparently trying to do their Saudi creditors a favor, except that the Saudis may need this conference more than their Yemeni opponents do.

So, the Saudis and the Hadi rump cabinet are re-doing their futile Riyadh conference monologue of two weeks ago, this time in Geneva with some UN bureaucrats in attendance. Again, no Houthi or Saleh or Army representatives. Again, Gone With the Wind without Rhett or Scarlett, as I opined once. I also expressed a more ‘visual’ (almost adult) description of the Riyadh monologue right here.

It looks more and more that the fate of what is left of bombed-out Yemen will be determined on the ground in Yemen. Not from the air, not in Geneva or Washington or Riyadh or Tehran. I could have told them that months ago. In fact I did, I did, more than once.

(P.S.: I still think if the Saudis want to get out of this quagmire, then they should—> do this).
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Will Ramadan Save Embarrassment and Life in Southern Arabia?………

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Will the holy month of Ramadan save the Saudi cojones from the fire they started three months ago?

There is a consensus, even within the Arab world, that the intensive Saudi air war against Yemen has failed. Call it what you will: Decisive Storm, Renewed Hope, Faltering Storm (one of my own favorites) or Failed Storm (my most favoritest name for it) or Genocidal Storm. The Saudis and their African Mercenaries (Sudanese, Senegalese, Moroccans, possibly also Jordanians) have run out of real targets. They are now in the process of bombing old targets, and bombing historic buildings, shrines, and residential buildings. They are doing almost WWII-style bombing of cities, hoping to catch some Houthis or Yemeni Army fighters napping. Out of useful targets.
Out of targets but not out of bombs and missiles, courtesy of Western democracies (and petromoney). Yet they don’t want to send their land army into a losing battle. Nor can they get any regime, be it Arab or African or Asian, to send their armies into a ground war and a guerrilla quagmire.


But never fear. Ramadan is here, or at the gates. The advent of Ramadan has not stopped Muslims from waging war against each other in the past, but it might this year. This week, maybe the delegates meeting in Geneva will have the excuse of the holy month to call a long ceasefire. The Saudis should jump at the chance. If the runaway former president General Hadi Bin Zombie objects, they can disinvite him from his Riyadh Hotel. Let him stay in Geneva.

Ramadan Kareem
(I knew someone named Mohammed Kareem, but no relation of Ramadan).
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Yemeni Revenge? Israeli Source Claims Houthi Scud Killed Saudi Air Force Chief……….

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“The Saudi Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Muhammad bin Ahmed Al-Shaalan was killed in a Scud missile cross-border attack by Yemeni Houthi rebels on the big King Khalid Air Base at Khamis Mushayt in the southwestern Asir region of Saudi Arabia, DEBKAfile reports. The attack took place on June 6, but his death was concealed under a blanket of secrecy until Wednesday, June 10. The largest Saudi air base, it is from there that the kingdom has for last two and a half months waged its air campaign to end the Yemeni insurgency. Saudi and coalition air strikes, directed against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, their allies from the Yemeni army and from local tribes, have killed an estimated 2,000 people, some of them civilians, including women and children. DEBKAfile’s military sources in the Gulf remarked that even the tardy official disclosure……………..”

It seems plausible: circumstantial evidence but it needs better corroboration. But why would the chief of Saudi Air Force travel during wartime? And why would Lt. Gen. Muhammad bin Ahmed Al-Shaalan die during the same week when Yemenis hit the major Saudi air base at Khamis Mushayt. This Israeli site, which once (probably tongue in cheek) claimed to be run by a bunch of Israeli journalists, is certainly connected to the Mossad and other officials. Perhaps it hopes to help derail the nuclear negotiations with Iran before the end of June, although it is hard to see how.

If this turns out to be true, then it would be another Yemeni revenge against the chief of the Saudi Air Force that has been bombing their cities and infrastructure for three months.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Dodo Bird of Yemen: Houthis and the Riyadh Hotel Managers………..

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“After 11 weeks of air strikes that have failed to change the balance of power in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is running out of options to restore President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s exiled government to Sanaa. Despite the destruction of much of their heavy weaponry, the Houthi militia and army forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh control most of the country’s populated west and still daily attack Saudi territory with mortar fire or missiles. The possibility of a ground operation in support of the ragtag local groups still fighting the Houthis in Aden, Taiz, Marib and al-Dhala appears to have been discounted by the Saudis and their allies in an Arab coalition from early on. Riyadh may soon have to face an unpalatable choice: accept the de facto control of its foes over Sanaa and cut a deal, or keep fighting with the risk of Yemen sinking into total chaos, becoming a permanent threat to Saudi security…………”

General Hadi is ensconced with his ghost cabinet in a 5 or 6-star hotel in Riyadh. Issuing new appointments, promotions, and demotions via social media. As if anyone inside or outside Yemen takes him seriously. As if there actually are those “Hadi-supporters” that Western media keep mentioning anywhere in Yemen.  These claimed “Hadi-supporters” are in the same category as the Dodo bird (Raphus Cucullatus). I can imagine the Saudis cracking jokes in Riyadh about his government in exile.

I’ve got a suggestion for the Saudi hosts. Take former President General Hadi Bin Zombie (some Yemenis call him the runaway ex-president الرئيس السابق الهارب) and his ministers and drop them over Sanaa. By parachute of course. Let the bombed people of the capital decide their fate.
Or, more telling, drop them over Aden, the city from which they escaped again and left its people to their grim fate. Let us see how Aden would respond to these Riyadh hotel managers landing among them.
Or even better yet: just let them live unharmed in Sanaa or Aden (how about Saada?) and suffer the Saudi bombs and cluster bombs these miserable men had urged and invited on the people of Yemen. Should be enlightening.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Saudis and Yemenis Exchange Visits: Good and Bad News on the Ground War…………

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One strain of the Saudi opposition, including the anonymous Mujtahidd, has been complaining about the path of the war on Yemen. The Wahhabi opposition support the Yemeni war in general: like almost all Arab Salafis they see it as a sectarian struggle. But they acknowledge that the bombing campaign against Yemen is not going well, no surprise there. They put the blame, rightly, on the princes leading it.


Last week they were complaining about the new young defense minister and crown prince to the crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS). They were critical of his taking a second princess wife and heading for a honeymoon in Paris while the country is at war.

This week they are complaining that the same prince MBS has left for a reported good time in the Maldives (islands in the Indian Ocean) while the war is not going well.

There is, however, some good news for those who want a more decisive war. For months some of the Saudi opposition and former president General Hadi Bin Zombie and his Riyadh hotel roommates have been urging a ground invasion of Yemen. Of course Hadi and his roommates had the chance to fight a ground war when they were in Aden, but they chose to escape to the safety and comfort of Riyadh. They left the war and the suffering to the Yemeni people. The good news is that during the second and third  honeymoons of Crown Crown Prince Mohammed the ground war has finally started.

Except the wrong side is waging the ground war, and it is going in the wrong direction for the Saudis. The Houthis and their Yemeni army allies have made bold incursions into Saudi territory and held military posts. Casualties were inflicted and weapons captured. Life in some southern towns and villages has been disrupted, some areas were forced to evacuate. 
Still, the Saudis don’t seem to know how to quit while they’re not ahead. Not yet…………


Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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New Wahhabi International: Al Qaeda as the New Great Hope of Jihadis in Syria……..

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“Al-Qaeda affiliates are significantly expanding their footholds in Syria and Yemen, using the chaos of civil wars to acquire territory and increase their influence, according to analysts, residents and intelligence officials. The gains have helped the terror group’s affiliates become major players in the countries and have complicated efforts to resolve the conflicts. Al-Qaeda offshoots could also be gaining sanctuaries to eventually plan attacks against the United States and Europe, analysts say. In Syria, al-Qaeda’s wing, Jabhat al-Nusra, plays a leading role in a new rebel coalition that has captured key areas in the northwestern part of the country. In Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has seized parts of the country’s largest province, territory that includes military bases, an airfield and ports. “Al-Qaeda is becoming more deeply entrenched in Syria, and it is gaining significant momentum in Yemen…………..”

A known Salafi activist on the Persian Gulf tweeted the other day, wishing, urging Al Nusra Front to break its allegiance to Al Qaeda. For years that same Salafi activist was urging Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda to make their peace with his Saudi masters, the princes and their Muftis. Other Gulf Salafis who openly supported Al Qaeda and its affiliates, especially AQI and ISIS among other terrorist groups, have shifted away from the latter. At least in the open, but it could be just the usual Salafi taqiyya, feigning and faking.

Al Nusra is not as successful as the Caliphate of ISIS, but Al Nusra has one important advantage for the opportunistic Salafis. It is now being supported by their patrons, the Wahhabi princes and potentates of Saudi Arabia and Qatar (and non-Arab Turkey). It is being armed and financed by all of them. The Salafis, especially in the Persian Gulf countries listen to the dictates of these neighboring potentates, their patrons. Besides, it is the American support and weapons that they covet, which explains the phony claim of leader of Jaish Al-Islam (Army of Islam) a couple of weeks ago that he is now almost a Jeffersonian democrat.

It is as if a new global International, a Wahhabi International emerging, taking its signals and orders from the clerics and moneybags of Riyadh and Doha. Just like the Communist International of yesteryear (Comintern), the Wahhabi one is now divided. At least two major rival branches, possibly more if Al Nusra can be bribed to split from Al Qaeda. Not to mention other affiliated groups of Salafi cutthroats: AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula), the Shabab, Boko Haram, the Bel-Mukhtar Group of Northwest Africa, etc, etc.

There have been reports in recent months that the Saudis are trying to affect a shift in loyalties. Saudi warplanes raining cluster bombs on Yemen tend to attack Houthi and Yemeni army forces in areas where they fight AQAP. That they do not attack gatherings of AQAP terrorists. American drones are still allegedly attacking AQAP. As usual, the Saudis believe they can in the end buy and regain the loyalty of AQAP and possibly the Southern Independence movement around Aden.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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