Category Archives: Arabian Peninsula

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

The Myth of a Proxy War in Yemen………..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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Western media are stuck on this “proxy war” idea. They keep claiming that “Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting a proxy war in Yemen“. “Proxy” means having someone else do the fighting for you. Now, those dropping the bombs on Yemen, killing people and destroying cities are NOT proxies, they are the Saudis (or whoever is flying their bombers) who are firing the missiles on Yemen. They are butchering Yemenis. And the Houthis are not Iranian proxies. The Houthis have been fighting either the Saudi princes or the Yemeni central government for many decades. They may have moved closer to Iran now because of the regional alignment against them, but they do not take orders from Tehran: that is a ridiculous claim to anybody who has read about them.

It is good propaganda to throw in the name ‘Iran’ for Western consumption. It gets people like Senator McCain and other warmongers all riled up. It silences any inclination to protest the brutal bombing campaign against the Yemeni people. But it is a futile war in the end. It is a war with the goal of allowing the Saudis to determine who will rule Yemen (well, maybe a couple of major cities in Yemen). You all know, as do the Saudis now, that AbdRabuh Hadi (99.8% of the vote, LOL) will never return to rule in Sanaa. Not after he invited foreign bombers against its people. As per my last fatwa about Hadi’s Last Look at Sanaa.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Enemy of the Enemy of My Friend: Northern Yemen, Southern Yemen, Eastern Yemen, USA, USA………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

North Yemen, what used to be called Yemen throughout most of modern history is now largely under control of Houthis and their other allies. Largely but not totally, and it is a fluid situation, as it has been in Yemen for almost forever. The Arab princes and potentates of the Persian Gulf have cut off their aid, seriously harming the innocent people of Yemen in order to punish their new leaders: that is how all blockades and sanctions usually work. The Iranians are reported to be supplying foreign aid and possibly weapons to the Houthis, who dutifully raise Iranian-style anti-American banners even as they welcome American drones attacking their mortal Al Qaeda (and maybe soon ISIS) enemies.

South Yemen, what used to be called Southern Arabia (or the Arabian South) under the British and later the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen after independence. Before it merged with (north) Yemen under Colonel Salih in early 1990. It is now more fragmented even than after the British withdrew from Aden. General President AbRabuh Hadi, a nominal southerner, allegedly rules in Aden, rules in parts of it anyway, with some other allies in the outskirts. He receives Western and GCC dignitaries and ambassadors, although it is not clear how many of these ambassadors actually hang around Aden after the media cameras are gone.

The Southern Independence Movement (Hirak) controls the hearts and minds in the South and they don’t welcome anyone who wants to bring them back under Sanaa control. It is a severe case of ‘buyer’s remorse’. Al Qaeda (AQAP) terrorists control large chunks of the south, including a few towns. The murderous Caliphate of ISIS (DAESH) is apparently also making some inroads, but nothing on a military scale yet.
There are also, like in the North Yemen, tribal undercurrents and conflicts in “both” parts now, actually in “all” parts of Yemen.

So, the free-for-all starts. So, whether you are an Arab, a Muslim, or otherwise: turn off your conscience, stifle your emotions, harden your heart, get some popcorn, and watch the bloody tragedy………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Caliphate, Yemen

From Arabia Felix to an Arab Prototype……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Yemen gets even more complex almost by the day, and who could have thunk it only a few weeks ago? It is now almost a prototype of a failed Arab state, in a similar league with a few others like Somalia and Libya and Syria: 

  • Houthis now control the capital Sanaa and the North: they are strongly aligned against Islah and AQAP (always) .
  • Houthis reportedly aligned with former president Saleh (for now: he still has influence with the army and security forces).
  • Houthis turn against Saleh (maybe soon as they tighten their control of the central state institutions, such as they are).
  • AQAP are against Houthis (always, a Wahhabi-Shi’a conflict, among other issues).
  • Former president General Hadi against Houthis (normal struggle of the provinces against Sanaa, in addition to the influence of Hadi-backers among Saudi and Gulf princes).
  • Houthis against all the above (normal in this situation of regional/tribal/sectarian rivalry: at some point all these groups will have to face each other).
  • AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) against all the above (possibly temporary alliances with some, for example now against the Houthis who always have a priority as enemies).
  • Hirak (the strong South Yemen independence movement) against all of the above (with likely temporary alliances with some of the others). Hirak may have preferred former president General Hadi (a southerner) because he was a weak leader with no political base, hence not much of a threat to anyone’s aspirations.
  • Some smaller remnants of the once-potent pan-Arab and Nasserist and socialist movements. As well as a few other parties, including the party of Saleh. I even saw a Green Party listed somewhere: not sure if it refers to environmental concerns or the chewable ‘qat (gat). No significant influence now.
  • Throw in there a mix of various tribal forces and influences, just to make things more complicated and more interesting.
  • GCC against Houthis and maybe Islah (ex-Qatar which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and hence Islah).
  • Iran against all the above (ex-Houthis and possibly other allies of convenience).
  • USA against AQAP (what else is new? And maybe against the Houthis in the future, but that would be a tough nut to crack).

IS or ISIS, the new kid on the block. It is showing some signs of life as well in Yemen: definitely against all comers. Unless they pledge allegiance to the silly but murderous Caliph WhatIsHisFace.

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, History, Iran, Yemen

Quagmire: Will Saudis Invite Egyptians into Yemen? Will Iranians get Bogged Down?…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Yemen 1962: some military officers staged a coup d’etat against the royal family, the Imamate of Hameediddeen. The new Imam Badr sought refuge in Saudi Arabia. A civil war ensued in Yemen, with some Saudi-supported tribes rising against the new regime, and leftist Egypt under Nasser siding with the officers. Saudis and Jordanians supported the tribes. Egypt sent thousands of troops to Yemen to help the Republican regime. It was a quagmire for the Egyptians, a quagmire the Saudis made sure would make Nasser suffer. Nobody really won that long civil war, and in the end they reached a compromise. The Egyptians left Yemen, but they faced a more difficult and tougher enemy in June 1967.

Yemen 2009: The Saudis briefly forgot their own lesson from the 1960s. They intervened in North Yemen against the Houthis. The best Western weapons that money could buy were essentially defeated by lightly-armed Houthis.

Yemen 2015: during 2014 the Houthis swarmed from their northern stronghold and easily defeated the corrupt Yemeni establishment that was set up and supported by the Gulf GCC, with UN blessing. More recently they have sidelined the president Hadi Al Zombie and the parliament and established new institutions. Now the Gulf GCC are making some political noises. There have even been hints at intervention by GCC. That would be interesting: would they send their imported foreign mercenaries into Yemen? How big a defeat would the Houthis inflict on them? Would the Gulf potentates align with the secessionists (former Marxists) in South Yemen? Would they kiss and make up with their AQAP (Al Qaeda) kin against a common enemy?

Recently, Egyptian media and some Egyptian officials have also been making warning noises about Yemen, in conjunction with GCC complaints about the Houthis. Their worry about possible Iranian inroads is understandable. It is unlikely that the Egyptians are thinking of re-entering Yemen. If they do, it is unlikely that the results would be better than in the 1960s. The Iranians themselves would be making Egyptian-like mistakes if they actually get deeper into Yemen. It would be the first Iranian intervention in Yemen in fifteen centuries, and it would be a big mistake. Yemen has always made a nice quagmire for foreigners.

Regardless of media fear-mongering, nobody is going to close the Bab El-Mandab Strait of the Red Sea, anymore than anybody will close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. So just leave Yemen for the Yemenis to fight over: it is much safer and cheaper that way. Everybody else, from Iranians to Saudis to Qataris to Egyptians, stay out.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

About Wild Houthis, AQAP in PDRY, and Forces Loyal to a Zombie……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Back to Yemen.
Some Western media have taken to reporting impossible things like: “Houthis are fighting militias loyal to president Abd Rabuh Hadi….”
FYI: they may be fighting the Houthis, but few people, if anyone, in Yemen are loyal to Mr. Hadi. He is not the kind of person that inspires loyalty of anyone outside his own family. Why else would the wily former strongman Ali Abdallah Salih pick him as his vice president? Why else would I occasionally call him Hadi Al Zombie (a lady suggested that last name once)?
Many in the southern provinces of Yemen would fight any authority in Sana’a, because they want to secede back into South Yemen (or maybe the original PDRY). And Al Qaeda (AQAP) Wahhabis are also spread in the south and they would fight the Houthi (heretics) any day. However, I do suspect that the Houthis may have bitten more than they can handle. They may have given their Wahhabi opponents an excuse to foment a sectarian war in Yemen. And they may be overextended by now, far away from their stronghold of S’ada in the north.

So, Abd Rabuh Hadi (Al Zombie) may be a nice guy, he probably is, but forget the nonsense about “forces loyal to Hadi“.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

One Yemen, Two Yemen, Three Yemen, Four……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Arabia Once Long Ago Felix. (Speaking of ‘felix’: I wonder if they had the qat or gat in those ancient days):

  • In the late 1960s the British gave up on their colony around Aden and Southern Arabia. They tried to leave behind some form of confederation of mini-states, a South Arabian Confederation which failed.
  • Marxist insurgents took over the whole lot and established the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (Marxist South Yemen). Meanwhile, the “Yemen”, i.e. somnolent North Yemen, remained unchanged: tribal and underdeveloped under the Republican regime as it was under the Hameededdeen Imamate.
  • Early 1990 or thereabouts, (Marxist) South Yemen was torn by factional disputes among its leaders, the former comrades in arms were divided and at each others’ throats. The Soviet Union was moving away from Middle East entanglements.
  • South Yemen leaders got the urge to merge with North Yemen, by then ruled by military dictator Ali Abdallah Salih. Possibly they thought they could outsmart the wily colonel and run the whole thing.
  • The colonel was wilier than the Marxists and he managed to sideline them, as colonels often do.
  • The union was a backward step in some ways for South Yemen. Especially on social issues and in women’s rights, where they had to conform to strict repressive North Yemeni standards.
  • A long story. By 1994 the southerners knew for sure that they had a raw deal, got the short end of the stick. They rebelled to regain their independence. They failed.
  • As Yemen fell apart to tribal and Al-Qaeda divisions, the Southerners saw another opportunity to regain independence. Meanwhile the GCC Gulf potentates and the UN managed to get Salih to resign and his deputy General Hadi to replace him. They claim Hadi was elected by an astounding but Arabic 99.8% of the “vote” (more than Sisi’s paltry 98% in Egypt or Assad’s embarrassing 88% in Syria). A weak leader, Hadi shared power with others, including the Islah (essentially the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). Corruption continued unabated, and the Houthis were emboldened to march from their stronghold and take Sana’a. That is where it stands now.
  • Except that Al-Qaeda (AQAP) Wahhabis are entrenched now, mostly in formerly Marxist South Yemen. The Houthis and Islah (Muslim Brotherhood) and other Salafis in the North and secessionists and Al-Qaeda (AQAP) in the South. Throw in a couple of other tribal ‘issues’, just to further complicate matters and make things more interesting.

They are all fighting each other now. Can the USA solve that? Certainly not, not even a combination of John McCain and Lindsey Graham can do that. The American goal is probably more realistic: to keep AQAP off balance.

Which means no other outsider can solve Yemen either.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Uncategorized

The New Ottomans: Thursday Night Massacre in Riyadh……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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“”Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud issued a royal order today, relieving Prince Khalid bin Bandar bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, Chief of General Intelligence, of his post,” the official Saudi Press Agency said……. A separate decree said Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a nephew of Abdullah, was removed from his posts as Secretary General of the National Security Council and adviser to the king. Two sons of the late monarch were also fired: Prince Mishaal, the governor of Mecca region, and Prince Turki, who governed the capital Riyadh, according to the decrees broadcast on Saudi television………..”

Maybe Salman is not as demented as the Saudi Wahhabi opposition in exile (Mujtahidd, etc) have been claiming. He seems to be doing the right things that a normal wily Saudi king would do when he ascends the throne.
Gone are the days of obsequiousness to the reigning king (Abdullah). Here are the days of obsequiousness to the new reigning king Salman. He has been quick to execute his palace coup. He started early, possibly even before Abdullah was buried but probably after his death, with the chief of the Royal Court of Abdullah. Al-Tuwaijri was sacked as were some others. Today, Thursday, a whole bunch of other princes have been disposed of in one day, many of them the sons of King Abdullah. They had been promoted by Abdullah and quickly deposed by Salman. Prince Muqrin is still the crown prince, and he has appointed Prince Mohammed Bin nayef as crown prince to the crown prince, third in succession. But for how long? He does control the Interior Ministry: security, secret police, religious police, prisons, etc, etc.

All this ruthless plotting and counter-plotting would do justice to an Ottoman royal court. It shows you: there was little if any brotherly love in the Byzantine palaces of Riyadh. There is even less now.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

[email protected]

Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia: Family Feuds and New Byzantine Arrangements………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Family feuds have been a hallmark of the Saudi royal family, just as they have been of other ruling dynasties of the Gulf countries. In the 1960s, King Saud was deposed by a palace coup engineered by his ambitious brother Faisal. In the 1970s, King Faisal was killed by one of his nephews, who blamed Faisal for the death of his father in the early 1960s. Lately, as the senior princes get older and older, the rivalries have intensified among the various branches, bellies and thighs, on who will be positioned to ascend the throne among the next generation.

In the past two years, Prince Met’eb, son of King Abdullah, and Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef came into focus as the two main rivals among the next generation. Both made several trips to Washington, although Arab comments have indicated that Washington might prefer the more experienced and more “security-minded” Mohammed Bin Nayef.
The recent death of Saudi king Abdullah was immediately followed by a coup, another palace coup. Or maybe the coup was started even before the king passed away.
As soon as Salman was sworn as king, he got rid of the top palace courtiers of Abdullah. He appointed Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef, the interior minister, as a second crown prince. A Crown Prince to the crown prince. He also appointed his own son as defense minister.

The Saudi royals, by nature easily amenable to Byzantine arrangements, may have started a new Byzantine tradition: a crown prince to the crown prince. If inter-family feuds escalate and rivalries intensify, they might start appointing another layer or two of “crown princes”. A crown prince to the crown prince of the crown prince? That is also possible. But will it work for long? Will it avoid an inevitable palace explosion?………..
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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Al Aqeda, Arabian Peninsula, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

American Friends, American Enemies: from Syrians to Al Qaeda to Houthis……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Strange state of American foreign policy these days. There are cases and situations where allies and foes can be exchanged:

  • The current leader of America’s allegedly closest ally (Israel) and the U.S. president intensely dislike each other. It is obvious they have little respect for each other. Mr. Obama knows that Benyamin Netanyahu bears him ill will, besides being a habitual liar who can’t be trusted (imagine, a politician lying to another politician!). Most Western European leaders also believe the same. Mr. Netanyahu clearly believes that the U.S. president is a weakling who is not willing to launch an attack on Iran on Israel’s behalf. In fairness nor did George W Bush, but Netanyahu would never dare openly defy Bush.
  • Mr. Obama believes that a nuclear deal with Iran is better than yet another American war waged against yet another Muslim country. Especially given the doubtful outcome, the cost-benefit of that war. America’s closest allies outside Europe, the Israelis, and the ruling potentates and princes of some Persian Gulf states, strongly object to almost any feasible deal.
  • The Republican leader of the U.S. Congress has invited Mr. Netanyahu to deliver a speech to a joint session of Congress, just after President Obama’s State of the Union Speech. Basically they are inviting  a foreign leader to respond to the U.S. president. Inside the U.S Congress! Unheard of anywhere in the world.
  • Mr. Obama also now has problems with some of his Arab allies regarding Syria. He and his advisers and most the American foreign policy establishment have revised their position on the Syrian civil war. Most have realized in the past year or so the real danger in Syria now is not the survival of Bashar Al Assad, but what will come afterwards. They were hoodwinked by Saudi, Emirati, and Qatari potentates into betting on the Free Syrian Army, which also did a good job of selling itself to some gullible and jingoistic American senators like McCain and Graham and the not-so-dearly-departed Lieberman. The Free Syrian Army soon morphed, most of it, into Al Nusra Front and ISIS and other groups of kidnappers and cutthroats. 
  • The Americans and the Syrians and Hezbollah and the Iranians are now fighting the same enemy, the Jihadis. For now. Eventually, the Americans would like for Al Assad and Iran and Hezbollah to go away (I am not sure where they can go since they live in the region). Eventually the Syrians and Iranians and Hezbollah would like for the Americans to go away (also not feasible any time soon).
  • To complicate matters, there pops up Yemen, hardly felix now. In Yemen, the United States is trying hard to stem and roll back the regional Al Qaeda branch (AQAP) mainly by bombing its Saudi and Yemeni leadership. So are the new power wielders in Yemen, the Houthis who now control the capital. Yet the Gulf states, especially the Saudi princes and the UAE potentates, don’t approve of the Houthis. Besides their faith which is an offshoot of Shi’ism, they are also suspected of being too close to the Iranian regime. You can’t get any more heretical than that from a Wahhabi point of view. The Houthis do sport some silly Iranian-like anti-American slogans on posters in Sanaa, but it is not clear (to me) if their heart is in it. Nor where they stand ideologically regarding an Iran-style theocracy.
  • So the Houthis fight Al Qaeda. The Houthis are reported to be supplied by Iran, although they don’t seem to carry advanced weapons, unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Americans fight Al Qaeda. Both Houthis and Al Qaeda fight the previous dominant tribal oligarchs of Yemen. Al Qaeda also as usual kidnaps and/or kills any Westerners (or Shi’as) they can get their hands on. Then there are the separatists of South Yemen who would like to regain the independence they lost in 1990. Complicated? Just hang on, it is going to get even more complicated in the coming weeks.
  • Then there is Lebanon, a place the Israeli military seem unable to stay away from. Once I likened it to the moth unable to resist the light and the fire, and cleverly if I may say so. We shall leave Lebanon, and Iraq, and North Africa for another day.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

[email protected]

Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

Yemen War: the Wild Bunch vs. the Hopelessly Corrupt vs. Al Qaeda……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“Yemen’s powerful Shiite Houthi rebels shelled the residence of the country’s embattled president Tuesday and simultaneously swept into the presidential palace in the capital, Sanaa, as a top military commander warned that a full-fledged “coup” was underway. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was inside the residence as it came under “heavy shelling” for half an hour but he was unharmed and protected by guards, officials said. In New York, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting over the chaos in Sanaa. The shelling was a dramatic development that put the U.S.-backed Hadi into a precarious position and represented the starkest challenge to his authority…………”

As of now it is not clear what is exactly happening in Sana’a, except that there is some fighting around the presidential palace today. It has been a relatively wild country outside Sana’a and Aden and a few other larger towns. Regime officials claim today that there is a Houthi coup, the Houthis claim they were attacked first by the ‘other side’.

The Houthis have controlled the capital for several months, although Al-Qaeda and some other tribal groups have tried to challenge their hold and slow their recent expansion south. They are depicted by most Arab and Western media as a wild tribal group from the wild north (of North Yemen). Some are also beginning to stress their new reported ties to the Iranian regime, a fact that worries the Saudis next door since they fought and lost a little war with the Houthis a few years ago.
The regime of Generalissimo Abd Rabu (Worshiper of His God) Hadi, which is just a continuation of every other Yemeni regime since 1962, is as corrupt as any in Yemeni history. Probably more because he has been even more beholden to the Al Ahmar tribal military oligarchs. The regime has completely failed to stem Al-Qaeda to the south in recent years. In fairness, nor has the American drone bombing campaign. The Houthis, who also mostly fight Al-Qaeda, started a surge that was too much for the regime and their Salafi foes, given that much of the military refused to fight them.

The wild looting of some leaders palaces also exposed the degree of corruption in that very poor country. The UN Security Council is reported meeting today in emergency on Yemen. Not sure what they can do. Maybe they will slap new sanctions on everybody. It will not mean much to anybody inside Yemen.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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