Category Archives: Arab Politics

On the Evolution of Anti-Shi’ism…………

      


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“Sectarian tensions are not new, of course, but the vocabulary of anti-Shiism in the Middle East has changed dramatically over the last 10 years. Shiites who used to be accused of ethnic otherness are now being cast as outside the Muslim community itself. Exclusion on doctrinal grounds was a mostly Saudi exception in the framing of Shiism. It is now increasingly becoming the regional rule. Prior to 2003, anti-Shiism in Iraq was perhaps best encapsulated in the term ajam…………. In other words, prior to 2003, Middle Eastern Sunni-Shiite dynamics were more often manifestations of nationalistic and ethnic rather than religious expression. …………These pre-2003 niceties, superfluous as they might seem to most Shiites, have long since been discarded. While Shiites’ Arab pedigrees continue to be questioned, anti-Shiite discourse today is overwhelmingly concerned with religious otherness. It is the post-2003 sectarian landscape and the inflammation of a religiously inspired sectarian entrenchment that has shaped the sectarianization of Syria’s civil war in stark contrast to how the Hama massacre of 1982 was framed. Likewise, it is this new sectarian landscape that is facilitating Hezbollah’s unabashedly Shiite posture of late. Just as it is the post-2003 environment that has led to the spread of Sunni-Shiite tension beyond its usual geographic hotspots — who could have predicted the public lynching of Shiites in Egypt of all places? ……………………”

An interesting article in Foreign Policy magazine, but it compels me to add my own two cents.
Many
sectarian events have racked the Muslim world in recent years, stretching from Morocco to Indonesia. One of these stands in my mind as the most shocking, as an indication of the degree of sectarian hatred that has eaten the social fabric of Muslim societies
. That was a few months ago, when neighbors attacked and lynched their neighbors in a town in Egypt. When one of the previously most tolerant Arab countries witnessed thousands of Sunni Muslims converge on a house of Shi’a Muslims and basically rip them to pieces.
Saudi media, and some other Gulf media, often emphasize a sinister connection between Shi’ism and being pro-Iranian (sometimes these campaigns tend to be self-fulfilling to some extent). Other favorite terms for Shi’as once used by Baathists in Iraq and now used by despotic tribal ruling clans in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and by Persian Gulf Salafis are: Majouss (Magi, referring to Zoroastrianism, the pre-Islamic faith of the Persian Empire); and Safawi (referring to the Safavid Shi’a dynasty of Persia which fought with the Ottoman Turks for control of what is now Iraq). Both terms seek to deliberately emphasize some perceived Persian or Iranian connection or nature of Arab Shi’as and distinguish them from other Arabs.

Cheers
mhg

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GCC Bestseller Book: Gulf Dynasties for Dummies, a Theory of Sustainable Looting……………

      


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I posted the other day, only half-seriously, about a black and yellow book titled “The Presidency for Dummies” to be read by Egypt’s military-appointed interim figurehead president Adly Mansour, General Al Sisi and Mr. Morsi. From that it was just a matter of hours before I realized that other countries need such a book. I scanned the map and my eyes stopped immediately at the Gulf (Persian Gulf not Gulf of Mexico nor Gulf of Maracaibo). How about “Gulf Dynasties for Dummies”?

“Gulf Dynasties for Dummies” could especially benefit the rulers of Saudi Arabia (although I don’t consider these rulers Gulf people). They can learn how to restock their inventory of princes: how to more quickly dump the older princes for newer models. They might want to cut back the mandatory 8-12 months between princely demises, make it 3-6 months. A crown prince should have a period of six months, maximum, to get to the throne. Otherwise, it is away to some New York clinic, rehab in Morocco, then adios Zapata. Within a couple of years, they’d have no choice but to pick younger princes to rule. Unfortunately that would be good for select branches (legs and bellies as they are called) of the ruling Al Saud family but it might screw the people real good. They’d be stuck with another generation or two of Ali Baba’s enemies.

The book might teach the ruling family gangsters of Bahrain about the Theory of Sustainable Looting. How to keep power and loot the country without help from foreign mercenaries (from Jordan, Pakistan, Syria, etc) or the Saudi religious police (Society for the Propagation of Vice). They might learn that sustained the looting of a country is more an art than an exercise in brute force. Especially a country with limited resources where every bit of land and every dollar of revenue and foreign aid should count.

Such a book might even come in handy for the ruling Bin Zayed Al Nahayan potentates, owners of Abu Dhabi and the UAE.
They have the advantage of safely ignoring about 90% of the population of their country: these are temporary foreign expatriates who don’t count in the political game. Most of them don’t understand or speak Arabic anyway (I mean the expats not the shaikhs). Not yet. All they have to worry about are the 10% of the population who are citizens. Still, they can’t seem able to handle these small numbers either. Hence the build-up of the special mercenary force of Colombians, Australians, White South Africans, possibly Israelis, and others.
Or maybe I should alter the title of the book to “Dynasties for Gulf Dummies”? Or how about “Dummy Dynasties for the Persian Gulf”?
Cheers
mhg

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UAE High-Level Delegation Seeks a Victory March in Cairo………..

      


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Speaking of Dummies books, Arab media report that the UAE is planning to send a “high-level” delegation to Egypt. Somehow the shaikhs seem to think Egyptians have plenty of time for social visits in between riots, street battles, and trying to form a government.
There are conflicting reports as to who will lead this high-level delegation or whether they will be carrying sacks of cash. One of my Abu Dhabi sources claims it may be headed by chief of Dubai police and shadow foreign minister of the UAE former Staff Sergeant Dhahi Khalfan. She reports that Khalfan believes his tweets helped trigger the anti-Morsi protests and the military putsch that overthrew the Muslim brotherhood. She reports the delegation aims to set up tents in Tahrir in a show of solidarity for the military and the overthrow of Morsi. Another source insists one of the ruling Bin Zayed Al Nahayan brothers will head the delegation. The shaikhs, she reports, may land at Cairo wearing General Al Sisi t-shirts.
My other Cairo source reports that Egyptians are not excited about this UAE delegation. Some of them think the Abu Dhabi shaikhs are in a hurry to march in their own victory parade in Cairo. Others think they are trying to rub it in the Qatari wound, adding insult to injury. Some say it might be a message to the Saudis or the Iranians, or both.
Others wonder if General Ahmed Shafiq, the old Mubarak crony who advises the Al Nahayan (not sure WTF on what) will be part of the delegation, if the shaikhs will nominate him for president of Egypt.

Cheers
mhg

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Middle East Leaders Tweeting: Khamenei’s Sports and Abdullah’s Market Crash………

      


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Bashar Al-Assad (June 17 TV interview): when the nation is in crisis, the president’s job is even more important, and must remain to solve it. (I don’t know about this thing of “must remain to solve it”: the Saudi king returned home from Morocco last week and their market immediately crashed as he landed).

Ahamdinejad: (no tweets from his account for month, very uncharacteristic, unless he violated the TOS. Could he have gone online incognito?).

Ali Khamenei (June 17) dissing the US Electoral College system, calling it gerrymandering (a surprise use of an American political term): @khamenei_ir How is it possible 2 become US president with fewer votes…..?“
Khamenei has also been waxing nostalgic this month about his youth, and about sports, from mountain climbing in Iran to volleyball (presumably not Beach Volleyball). Which makes you wonder: does he know something the public doesn’t, yet?

Hassan Rouhani (June 17): @HassanRouhani #Rouhani’s Opposition to the Bomb: The Iranian President-Elect’s 2006 Letter to TIME via @TIMEWorld”.  Benyamin Netanyahu immediately opined that he is opposed to this Iranian opposition to the bomb. Said he smelled a whiff of anti-Semitism, retroactively. Said he ought to be bombed just for saying it.

Saudi King Abdullah: (Wish tha Twitter?= WTF is Twitter?) And who is this Gerrymandering thing the Iranian Rafidhi turban-head cleric was talking about up there?

Saudi Mufti: This is evil. Spit out and ask forgiveness, otherwise you’ll never see hide nor hair of them virgin houris. Instead the flames of hell shall caress your walnuts.

Nuri Al-Maliki: I gotta learn about real longevity from the PM of Bahrain.
Psst, Nuri: It’s the family and the mercenaries and the Saudi troops, stupid!

Morsi: @MuhammadMorsi Evoked blood in the same sentence as Nile waters (it is common Arab political bullshit to insert blood into a political statement). Jumped on the Syrian war while kissing up to Sudan’s Al-Bashir.  We shall aid the Syrians with words, liberate Nile headwaters or switch to our blood for irrigation, regain the Sudan (without al-Bashir), and drive the Israelis……….. mad trying to figure me out.

Hip Saudi Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal:
They say I ain’t no leader, but I own Twitter………. almost.

Cheers
mhg

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Kuwait Constitutional Court Ruling: a Tough Dilemma for the Tribal Islamist Opposition…………….

      


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The Constitutional Court of Kuwait has closed one door for the opposition while leaving another face-saving door ajar for them. The court ruled that the one-man one-vote system that was introduced last year was constitutional but it ruled that the current parliament (voted December 2012) should be dissolved and new elections be held within two months.
The opposition, which is dominated by tribal Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood with support from Wahhabi-Liberals and some secularists, is facing a dilemma. It looks like the one-man one–vote, their main target, is here to stay. They must decide whether to contest the coming elections or boycott and lock themselves and their allied tribes out of the political system again. After all, the core Islamists and tribals among them were close allies of the government ruling “elites” for several decades during which the secular liberals (and the Shi’as) were both cast out in the wilderness, their political institutions repressed.
The opposition shot itself in the foot early on when it dominated the last parliament, weakening their own prospects by going blatantly tribal and sectarian. Most of their members succumbed to pro-Saudi tribal and Salafi instincts, and focused on the Shi’a minority of Kuwait, about 30% of the citizens, for special discriminatory attention. They adopted divisive sectarian political tactics that may have ensured their own marginalization in the long run.
If they now boycott, it is likely that some of the tribal members will split and decide to participate in the contests and the voting. If they decide to contest the elections, some of them may also decide against it and split. Either way, they would lose because the one-man one-vote tends to dilute the political strength of the tribal blocks. Their supporters usually vote along strictly tribal lines; their 5 votes per man/woman have been reduced to one vote. This system reduces the dominance of the large tribes and their (Sunni) Islamist allies and shifts the balance somewhat back toward the traditional influence of city folks, both Sunni and Shi’a.
 
My guess is that some of them will rejoin the political process. My experience with the tribal Salafis and Muslim Brothers of Kuwait has been that they are willing to dump principle for power. Their commitment to democracy is opportunistic but their commitment to the tribal, clan, and individual power is even stronger. After all, even with the new system of voting they still get a better deal than exists in Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, both regimes that the Kuwaiti opposition have strongly supported against the demands of the democratic opposition in both these Gulf countries.

(After writing this post it was announced that 23 former members of the opposition have voted to boycott the coming elections, for now. The next week will clarify things).

I add here the following links to some of my earlier posts on this topic of Kuwait politics:

Christmas on the Gulf: Jingle Bells and Salafi Beards and Reform in Kuwait

Kuwait Politics: Incompetent Government vs. Reactionary Opposition

The Kuwait Elections and the Shi’a Question and Wahhabi Liberals

Banning Demonstrations in Bahrain: Advice from the Kuwait Opposition

Saudi Wahhabi Shaikhs Discussing Recent Events in Kuwait

A Small Wahhabi Protest in Kuwait: Love-Hate-Need-BS Complex

GCC Summit: a Salafi Tribal Dream Team, Taqiyya and a Real Existential Threat

Kuwait Protests? about Saudi Protests, Bahrain Protests, Salafi Uprising

Cheers
mhg

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Dynasties: Changing the Guard in Qatar, Killing off the Old Guard in Saudi Arabia, Pickled Papa Doc in Bahrain…….

        


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“Change is afoot in the world’s richest nation, Qatar. Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and his Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, are said to be putting in place an ordered succession plan for the tiny Gulf emirate. The transition will see them leave a stage they have dominated for nearly two decades enabling the emir’s son Crown Prince Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and younger ministers to take charge. Rumours have been circulating for several months but in recent weeks, discreet communications have been passed on to various diplomats and leading businessmen alerting them that change is coming.………….”

This is, if true, an unusual event in the Gulf states. Unusual in any Arab country. I suspect the Emir of Qatar is having health issues, although there has been only one mention of this possibility in the media. Voluntary abdication is not common in the Gulf GCC states. That other involuntary kind of ‘abdication’ is quite common, as I noted in an earlier post about de Tocqueville of Qatar.
Which brings me to a couple of other interesting dynasties of the GCC states, probably the two most avaricious and most repressive of the Gulf ruling clans:

  • In Saudi Arabia they play a waiting game, as the older princes die off and are replaced with other older princes. It used to take a few years to dispatch one king and usher in a new one. From now on they will be likely rotating every few months. The current King Abdullah has buried two successive crown princes in one year, but his luck may be running out. The Saudi dynasty will probably go through the elderly princes for another decade or so. At some point the king may be 100 years old, on life-support and IVs when he ascends the throne. 
    The last elderly king will probably have to turn off the lights in Riyadh as he takes his last breath. Taxidermy is frowned upon in le royaume sans la Magie, which is a good thing.
  • In Bahrain the old prime minister, Khalifa Al Khalifa, has been in power and doing serious damage, essentially screwing the island almost, but not quite, like the late Papa Doc in Haiti. The imported foreign mercenary militias are his equivalent of the old Haitian Tonton Macoutes. For some 42 years, longer than Muammar Qaddafi ruled Libya. By now he probably smells like a pickled herring, and as oily, and possibly has the texture of over-aged smoked salmon. Nevertheless, he would like to continue looting the country, teargassing and imprisoning his way to death and a long tenure en enfer afterwords. With friendly help from other Gulf GCC potentates and the Western powers.

Cheers
mhg

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One More War: On America in Syria, Bigoted Shaikh Al Qaradawi, and Russia in the Near Abroad…………

      


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The bigoted Shaikh Yusuf Al Qaradawi of Egypt and Qatar, the Nazi-admiring cleric has recently called for a sectarian Jihad in Syria. It is interesting that his call has been heeded by none other than the Obama administration. Supplying weapons and training is not supposed to be “direct” involvement yet, the Iranians and Russians do that too. But the next stage may be set by the Shadow President of the United States, John McCain, who has not met a war he did not like since his days of bombing Vietnamese villages. That nest stage might be a no-fly zone, without the UN approval, and hence an illegal no-fly zone. Who knows, maybe the Russians will learn from the West and start their own illegal no-fly zones in the countries of the “Near Abroad”. The Caucasus region has a plethora of opportunities.
Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, buoyed by the Obama move (or maybe is it the McCain move), also declared Jihad in Syria. The Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz (owner of the Asahrq Alawsat newspaper) called Shaikh Al Qaradawi to personally congratulate him for calling for a sectarian war in the Middle East.

Cheers
mhg

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Rocky Choices in Syria, no Hobson’s Choice in the Gulf GCC………

      


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Hobson’s Choice:
1 an apparently free choice when there is no real alternative
2 the necessity of accepting one of two or more equally objectionable alternatives

“Besides, the rebels are losing support, in part because the regime has had some success in stirring sectarian fears. Many Syrians originally sympathetic to the rebels have been horrified by events such as the reported execution on June 9th of a 14-year-old boy by jihadists in Aleppo, allegedly for insulting the Prophet Muhammad. Downtrodden Sunnis who six months ago were the mainstay of the opposition may be thinking again. “I hate the regime,” says a woman from a poor Damascus suburb. “But if forced to choose, perhaps I would rather live under them than the rebels. I am tired of the violence.” Qatari and Saudi support for the opposition has also scared a lot of Syrians. “This is now a war in Syria, but not a Syrian war,” says a dissident artist in the capital. “I have no illusions that the Gulf backers are interested in us having democracy.”…..……….”

Also sprach The Economist. The excellent magazine’s record is not perfect. It has a past record of some quality mis-prognostications about the Middle East (Iranian Revolution, Iran-Iraq War, Battle for Basrah, Syria, Lebanon, etc, etc………). Probably not this time: it covers an aspect of the Syrian civil war that is ignored by most Western media, nay an aspect that many in the West and many Arabs would consider heresy. The choices facing the Syrians are tough.

Syrians are caught between several clichés: a rock and a hard place, the frying pan and the fire, you name it. Like most Arab peoples, they have a plethora of bad choices among clichés, to pick from. The last word up there, by a skeptical Syrian citizen, got it right: “I have no illusions that the Gulf backers are interested in us having democracy.
In Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the financiers of Syrian ‘liberation’, states that are seemingly gung-ho on Syrian “freedom”, the people have no such choices, not even between bad alternatives. Their own peoples don’t even have a lousy Hobson’s Choic
e.

Cheers
mhg

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Political Rumors of Qatar: Hamad Bin Jassim de Tocqueville………

      


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Arab and foreign media are circulating stories, possibly rumors, about an imminent “transfer” of power in Qatar. They say the Emir Shaikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani will ‘abdicate’ in favor of his son Tamim Al Thani. In the Gulf no one abdicates in favor of anyone unless forced to do so (and I mean really FORCED, dead or alive). The current Emir of Qatar came to power after overthrowing his traveling father who was sampling the Chianti and possibly other stuff in Italy. The last case of “abdication” in the Gulf was in 1966: ruler of Abu Dhabi Shaikh Shakhbut Al-Nahayan was overthrown by his brother Shaikh Zayed Al-Nahayan. Before that Saudi King Saud Bin Abdulaziz was overthrown by his brother Crown Prince Faisal Bin Abdulaziz in 1964. They also called that an “abdication”. King Faisal was shot dead by one of his own nephews in 1975.
The rumors also speculate that prime minister/foreign minister Shaikh Hamad Bin Jasim Al Thani will be replaced. There may be several explanations for this, including:

  • This could be a Saudi rumor to bring the Al-Thani down to size (they did plot to overthrow him in 1998).
  • It could be a trial balloon by one of the principals in Qatar.
  • It could even be a story planted by the Al Khalifa of Bahrain who always felt in recent years that the Qatari royals treat them like the shit they are.
  • Or it could be part of a dastardly plot by Hezbollah sow confusion in Qatar and win the civil war in Syria.

My Qatari claims that the prime minister is all set for retirement. She says his original plan was to travel in ‘liberated’ Syria, observing and writing on its Salafi democracy. Now, for some reason she claims she can’t understand, he has decided to change plans. He will retire in New York. That explains, she added, his purchase of a huge condo overlooking Central Park. She says he plan to start from NYC and roam America, writing his observations and impressions of its development and its democratic institutions (including the lobbyists). To do that comfortably he will purchase a huge Winnebago and drive around with a coterie of 100 men, women, and children. Since he like to be discreet and inconspicuous, he will go under the name of Hamad Clérel Bin Jassim de Tocqueville.

Cheers
mhg

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Proverbs: Yiddish Asses, Arab Donkeys……………….

         


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If one man calls you an ass, pay him no mind. If two men call you an ass, go buy a saddle.”
Yiddish proverb. Allegedly, according to this article here.
Which also goes on to expand helpfully that: “Jackasses: We all know them. None of us can stand them. But what if “them” is “us”? Here’s a short guide to help you walk through the jackass self-assessment process………...”
In the Middle East there is an Arabic saying that one of my teachers used to repeat (not to me, honestly, mostly to some other student): “Kithr el-tikrar be’allim elhomar, كثر التكرار، بيعلّم الحمار: Repetition will teach even a donkey (even an ass)”
I think he was right, in most cases, although now I know it was an insult to many fine reasonable donkeys.
Even Arab governments may start learning at some point. Not yet.

Cheers
mhg

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