Tag Archives: Saudi

Arab Politics, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Qatar

The Most Recent GCC Drama Swept Under: Sugar and Spice and Dancing Goatees………

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It seems that the most recent Gulf GCC dust-up has been settled, for now. The Persian Gulf media, official and unofficial versions, are gushing orgasmic with all the talk of sweetness and sisterly states and brotherly love. Something they usually do publicly even as the knives are being sharpened. Enough to make me look around for a barf bag.

This means the absolute tribal ruling oligarchs of Saudi Arabia and the UAE (Bahrain’s rulers act as a Saudi appendage and don’t count) have reached a deal with the errant wayward Wahhabis of Qatar. Sugar was oozing through the grease at the little summit in Riyadh yesterday. The goatees were practically dancing, mainly for the benefit of the media and the saps watching it on television at home.

No doubt a temporary deal which, like previous temporary deals, will last as long as it is not seriously tested. We have seen this drama film before. Enforced hegemony and conformity never last, which means these most boring potentates of the GCC will have some more drama to share with us in the future. Get the popcorn ready,
And don’t forget a new bag……….
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Arab Politics, Caliphate, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria

The ISIS Plot? What about the ISIS Plot? ………..

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Speaking of ISIS and the blame for its resurgence last summer. Other Middle East media have claimed that the whole ISIS surge was engineered by the Americans in order to get their forces back into Iraq through the window, after being forced to leave through the door in 2011. This recent piece here is one example. All this was supposedly done with Saudi help among some Al Anbar tribes that sided with the terrorists. The alleged goal of the plot is to reduce Iranian (and Shi’a) influence in Baghdad and increase Saudi (and Wahhabi) influence in Iraq and Syria, to start with. Thus alter the strategic balance in the Eastern Mediterranean, something Israel and the Al Saud have failed to do after years of trying. Many more Arabs believe this theory than we hear or read about in the media.

I am not normally a conspiracy theory advocate, but I did dabble in the topic. I did speculate along these lines somewhere last summer. Either in a post or on Twitter, I forget. I noted the timing during a period of government change in Iraq. It sounds plausible although farfetched, given the polluted poisoned Washington air. Possible if not necessarily probable, but it is too simplistic: it assumes the other side will not counteract.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, Yemen

Is Al Sisi Being Pushed into Foreign Military Adventures?………

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“The Associated Press has learned that U.S. Arab allies Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are discussing the creation of a military pact against Islamic militants, with the possibility of a joint force to intervene around the Middle East. Four Egyptian military officials have confirmed the talks to The Associated Press. They say the alliance would be separate from the U.S.-led air campaign against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria. The alliance, they said, could intervene in other extremist hot-spots: Libya, where militants have taken over several cities, and Yemen…………”

Confronting the terrorists of ISIS is one thing: that is facing a danger close to home, with clear intentions to violate many regional states. Going beyond that into the realm of intervention in other countries is a risky proposition. I doubt this group of governments can organize a serious military campaign against an ‘armed’ foe rather than against unarmed civilians.

The Gulf GCC princes and potentates may believe that Egypt can be a formidable military ally that can be used in trouble spots from Libya to Yemen and possibly the Persian Gulf. They are wrong.

On paper that may seem to be true. Egypt has a huge army and some of the best American and other weapons in the region. As does Saudi Arabia and the under-populated United Arab Emirates (where nearly 90% of the population are foreign laborers and expatriates). The military prowess is all on paper: it is an accountant’s military prowess.

The Egyptian military has not been able to reclaim full authority over parts of the Sinai Peninsula, where Islamist Jihadis and various outlaw and trafficker gangs hold sway. They had one experience in outside intervention, in Yemen in the 1960s, and did not perform well. That 1960s army was supposed to be motivated and patriotic. This current Egyptian army is top fat and in reality it serves an entrenched oligarchy that only its top officers can identify with. Its soldiers cannot identify with their political and economic masters and are unlikely to fight effectively on their orders against a tenacious and fierce enemy. Not if their own homeland is not threatened.

Generalisimo Al Sisi would do well not to allow his military be “rented” by the princes and potentates to fight their wars. He would only get stuck in a quagmire in Yemen, again, or in some other place. Yemen especially comes to mind, because this week Saudi royal media have been quoting Egyptian “experts” warning about the Houthis and the Bab El-Mandab Strait. Ironically, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have had miserable military experiences in Yemen in the past half century, the Saudis against the same Houthis a few years ago.

The Al-Nahayan brothers who rule the UAE have no military experience except maybe carrying Saudi baggage in Bahrain. But they also have some of the most expensive Western weapons and lethal toys that money can buy, and they may be deceived into thinking that is sufficient to wage real warfare against determined enemies.

They need bodies, reliable bodies that they think can wage war. Something like a huge army of mercenaries that is an efficient fighting machine. They may think they have found it in Egypt. I have no doubt that they are wrong.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Arab Politics, Britain, Corruption, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

From the Gulf to London to Paris, Corruption Inc Rules……….

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“The problem is that Sir John failed to reach the conclusion that the Prime Minister, Prince Charles and their vociferous Middle Eastern allies wanted. They had hoped for confirmation that the Saudis had been correct in their assessment of the Brotherhood. Sir John Jenkins’s exculpation has caused grave affront to powerful interests, and has led to a long, vicious Whitehall battle that began over the summer, persisted throughout the autumn and shows no signs of ending. Publication of the Jenkins report as originally written would infuriate the Prime Minister’s Saudi allies – and not just them. The United Arab Emirates have long been agitating for the defenestration of the Brothers. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed has the Prime Minister’s personal telephone number, and does not hesitate to use it to voice the UAE’s anxiety that Britain is not taking a firm enough line. The former prime minister, Tony Blair, is another who has been agitating on behalf of the UAE against the Brotherhood………..”

The Saudi monarchy is hopelessly corrupt, that is a given, a fixed variable here. The British establishment of most stripes desperately wants to get its hands on some of the billions the Saudi (and Emirati) princes and potentates can spend on anything they want, another given. There you have the makings of a perfect marriage.
Funny that this article should mention BEA Systems and Tony (the Poodle) Blair. These two names and the word corruption seem to go together well. Have been for some years.

No need to rehash the French efforts to get their hands on some of the Saudi loot. I have posted on that a few times earlier.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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History, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Pop-History: Ibn Saud in Yemen…………..

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“Three armies of Wahabi Arabs, sent forth by Ibn Saud, King of Saudi Arabia, advanced last week through the mountain passes of Yemen Arabia, converging on Sana, the walled white mountain capital of Yemen One moved eastward, from the Red Sea port of Hodeida that Ibn Saud’s men captured last fortnight. One moved westward from the great central desert toward Sana. The third drove down from the border bandit land of Nejram on Sada key city to Sana. They came in armored cars, in camel corps and on horseback. And behind them able Ibn Saud solidified their gains by cutting the customs duties at Hodeida 50% last week. . Hard-pressed indeed was their prey, Yahya ibn Hamid-ed-Din, Imam Yemen scion of Mohammed’s daughter Fatima’ and her husband Ali the fourth Caliph. He wanted to treat with Ibn Saud but his eldest son, the Emir el Hadi Mohammed Seif al Islam, suspicious and arrogant as his father but not so wise, is jealous of Ibn Saud’s great prestige. Emir called for war, for more war, for the Imam’s abdication in his favor. While the son launched guerrilla raids on Ibn Saud’s supply trains in the hills, the compact crinkle-bearded old man scrambled up into Sana, city of 40,000, and squatted in his throne room where the only ornament on the dark blue walls is his own scimitar. Refusing to abdicate, he set about rallying his black, wiry, citizens for the defense of Sana. Suddenly at week’s end frugal Yahya put his troublesome son behind him and sued for peace. Ibn Saud nailed home his conditions and declared an armistice. Hungrily his three armies halted in their tracks outside Sana…………..”

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Economics, Iran, OPEC, Petroleum, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Foreign Policy

Oil Weapon Redux: Saudi Oil Policy vs. Iranian Regional Policy vs. Ebola vs. Obama Sanctions……..

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There is new speculation about the ‘oil weapon’ in Arab media, in independent Arab media that is not owned by the Saudi or UAE or Qatari princes and potentates. This speculation has now also spilled into some Western media outlets. It claims that the Saudis, the usual crude oil ‘swing producers‘ of OPEC, are not playing their usual role these days. And they attribute this to regional strategic reasons.
The speculation is that the Saudis want to apply some economic pressure on their Iranian rivals (and perhaps on the Russians as well). Not the kind of direct crude type of economic pressure in the form of the blockades used by the Obama administration, but a more genteel ‘market’ type of pressure. If oil prices are low enough, this theory seems to go, then the Iranians will feel the economic pinch and reduce their support for Al Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and perhaps reduce their involvement in Iraq and other places.
The idea is not new: it was expressed by the Saudis after they lost out in Iraq a few years ago. At the time, some minion at the Saudi Embassy in Washington opined in American media (the Washington Post?) that his country can drown the market in oil and hurt the Iranians. I wrote then (presciently?) that this may be a delusion, that the Saudis themselves cannot afford very low oil prices, given population growth and emerging political pressures at home.
The reduction in oil prices also coincided with the initial Ebola panic which impacted the travel outlook and hence the demand for fuel.

As if responding to this policy, or speculation about it, the Iranians have just announced a huge offer of weapons for the Lebanese military (which is secular but represents the sectarian and confessional divisions within that country). They seem to be in a race with the Saudis (who earlier announced a conditional $3-4 billion of French weapons) and the Americans to arm the (so far multi-sectarian) Lebanese military.

Cheers
MHG 

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Al-Qaeda, Arab Revolutions, Caliphate, Syria, Turkey, US Foreign Policy

Joe Biden on the Erdogan and Wahhabi Trails: With Allies Like These……….

_9OJik4N_normal Sharqeya-Baneen-15    DennyCreek2

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““My constant cry was that our biggest problem is our allies — our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria,” Biden told his listeners in remarks subsequently posted on the White House YouTube channel (go to 1:32:00 if you want to skip the earlier speech). “The Turks were great friends,” he notes, adding that he recently spent considerable time with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and they have “a great relationship.” Ditto the Saudis and the Emiratis. But when it came to Syria and the effort to bring down President Bashar Assad there, those allies’ policies wound up helping to arm and build allies of al Qaeda and eventually the terrorist “Islamic State.”…………”

Joe Biden was right of course. There are facts that I and many others have been pointing out for three years. As soon as that first Syrian uprising started against the Al Assad regime in 2011, the Wahhabi and Muslim Brotherhood money, weapons and intolerant ideology started flowing in to Syria. Soon, bored and indoctrinated young Wahhabi Jihadis started flowing into Syria from the Persian Gulf region. That early Syrian uprising was lost to the newly-imported sectarian narrative.

The absolute tribal princes and potentates from Riyadhh and Doha and Abu Dhabi did not see a people’s uprising in Syria, even though their vast media claimed that they did. For obvious reasons these rulers are not into into liberation movements. They just saw an opportunity to finally gain a foothold in Syria, spread their Wahhabi ideology, and give the annoying Iranian mullahs a black eye. Not necessarily in that order.

In other words, they have sought to buy Syria and its people with petroleum money. Just as they are seeking to buy American and other Western foreign policy regarding the Arab uprisings from Egypt to Bahrain to Syria to Yemen. With some significant success.

The Turks did their part for ‘the cause’: as I have opined before, the Erdogan regime never saw a Jihadi terrorist that they could turn back from entering Syria (and hence Iraq). Money, weapons, and volunteers from the Arab world and Europe continued to flow into the civil war through what I called the Erdogan Trail.

Joe Biden was right: with allies like these…………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Caliphate, Death Penalty, Jihadis, MENA

Year of Chopping Heads: from Mosul to Oklahoma……

_9OJik4N_normal Sharqeya-Baneen-15    DennyCreek2

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Suddenly decapitating seems to be ‘in’ (at least in our region and in world media). It is certainly as ‘in’ as slowly and agonizingly, hit-or-miss, experimental injection of poison to death-row convicts in Oklahoma and other states. It is a toss-up which method is more cruel: you never know until you try both, personally. Beheading is probably more cruel; besides, it is happening more frequently. Especially now that the Wahhabi cutthroats (literally) of this Hollywood Caliphate are resurgent in Iraq and Syria.
The Caliphate unceremoniously mows down Yazidis and Shi’as and native non-Wahhabis into mass graves. But it reserves the more ceremonial beheading for Westerners. It is a tough choice: would you rather be mowed down as one more anonymous body among thousands or would you rather be murdered ceremoniously but painfully?
To keep up with the other Wahhabi Abus, the Saudis have also ramped up their beheading state machine. Reports claim they have accelerated the number of public beheadings, that it is close to 50 so far this year, give or take a couple.
Not to be outdone, the Algerian Salafis have gone back to their 1990s civil war practice of beheading hostages. Not to mention reports of the Philippines Abus, Abu Sayyaf (?) resorting to the endearing old practice.
Not to be outdone, some nutcase in Oklahoma just beheaded a co-worker. Oklahomaaaaaaa Okay? Oklahoma that has been worried about the Shari’a Law creeping into its statehouse and legislature and has been dabbling with laws to forestall it.

Odd, how they believe that chopping heads is the ‘Islamic’ way to execute someone. Just because they did it in the old days. What they overlook is that they had no other choice in those days. They did not have guns or hypodermic needles in the seventh century. Everybody chopped heads at that time, be they Muslims or Christians or Vegans. Even Henry VIII did it, even the French reveled in it for a mad brief period.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

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Culture, Islamic History, Saudi Arabia

The Three Sects of Islam: the Cultural Equivalent of ISIS Yuppies……..

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“The tomb of the Prophet Mohammed is located in the Saudi Arabian city of Medina. The prophet’s remains are under the Green Dome in the Al-Masjid al-Nabawi mosque, which is visited by millions of Muslims every year. According to the U.K.’s Independent, however, a 61-page consultation document outlines plans for destroying chambers around the tomb, which are especially revered by Shi’ite Muslims, and removing the prophet’s remains to an anonymous grave. The document was exposed by a Saudi academic, the Independent said, but there is still no indication that the Saudi goverment has adopted the plans. The document was given to supervisors of the mosque in Medina……….”

Islam is often portrayed as consisting of two major sects: Sunni and Shi’a. In fact culturally Islam consists of three major sects: (1) Sunni (the largest sect), (2) Shi’a (the next largest sect), and (3) Wahhabi (now the smallest sect but it is growing fast nowadays from Indonesia to Morocco and into Europe). There are others, smaller sects and offshoots of the others.

Wahhabi doctrine, unlike Sunni and Shi’a doctrine, is set against the very survival of historic monuments of any kind (now some f them venerate princes and potentates). They are not, however, against making money at the expense of history. Many major monuments of the early Islamic period in central Mecca have been destroyed and replaced with shopping malls and 5-7-star hotels.

If this new report is true, then it represents a brazen attack on the very history of early Islam, by people who do not believe in history and seek to destroy it. Still, I am not sure they can be serious about this plan for the grave of the Prophet, knowing the possible reaction. Maybe it is a trial balloon to see the reaction, or maybe it is a cultural nod to the up and coming fellow Salafis, the new yuppies of ISIS.

If I were prone to exaggeration to make a point, and I am not, I’d say this is the Wahhabi cultural equivalent of the military drive and the massacres of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The paths of the tree and its fruit do not diverge much, to rephrase another cliché (FYI: no, that is not a cliché of a Chinese proverb, although it sounds like it).
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Gulag, Caliphate, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria

A View of Iraq and Syria from an Arabian Gulag: Earthly Rewards to Paradise…….

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“In Syria, where the Saudis are a leading backer of rebel groups including the secular Free Syrian Army and the Islamic Front, which includes less militant Sunni fighters, Riyadh still has some options to influence the outcome of the war. But in Iraq, its most populous neighbor, with which it shares an 850 kilometer (530 mile) frontier, Saudi Arabia has few tested friends or established links with Sunni groups, and knows that the majority Shi’ites will continue to dominate power……….”

So these authors wrote their report for Reuters, mainly with local interviews from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They quote some Iraqi ‘analyst‘ who works from Abu Dhabi and is, as they claim, “close to the Saudi Interior Ministry“. They don’t clarify how “close” this analyst is to the Saudi Ministry of Interior, and in what “capacity“. But we know that the Ministry of Interior does not do foreign policy. We also know what it does do: arrests, interrogations, prisons, public floggings, executions by public beheading with occasional crucifixions, religious police, immigration, travel bans, internal exile, external exile, among other things. In effect they run a vast Arabian Gulag.

Odd this assertion: Iraq and Syria are represented as serious problems for Saudi Arabia. But how did Iraq and Syria get to this stage? How did they get to represent serious problems to the region? Yes, you got that one right: because the Wahhabis started sending their intolerant ideology, their killers, their weapons, and their oil money, first to Iraq and then to Syria.

They started on Iraq early on, somewhere around the year 2005. In Syria they waited until the misnamed so-called Arab Spring reached Homs (or was it Der’a) and then the Wahhabi and Salafi and Ikhwan machine went into full gear to try and take it over. With a little help from the Turkish leaders who thought they could open their country to Jihadi traffic into Syria and remain untouched.

They created the monster that now threatens them and that the Iraqis and Syrians have to deal with. If Iraq and Syria ‘pose’ problems for the princes, they are problems of their own creation. They and some other potentates in Qatar and other emirates and their Salafi money-gathering machine. And their misguided underemployed frustrated young volunteers looking towards the joys of captive women as they await the promised unlimited virginal rewards of Paradise.

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum