Tag Archives: Saudi

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, France, GCC, US Foreign Policy

Roving Francois Hollande: France Will Not Join Gulf GCC, Catharsis at Camp David………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“France’s tough line in talks with Iran and a similar analysis to Gulf Arab states on regional crises has sealed strategic new links in the Middle East that will be cemented when President Francois Hollande attends a regional leaders’ summit next week. Those ties, which Paris has sought to nurture since Hollande came to power in 2012 – were highlighted on Thursday when Qatar agreed to buy French-made Rafale fighter jets in a 6.3-billion-euro ($7 billion) deal. Hollande travels to Doha on May 4 to sign the contract before heading to Riyadh at King Salman’s invitation to attend a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)…………..”

French Socialist leader Francois Hollande has been flying all over our region. He has been spending so much time flying to Persian Gulf capitals that he is almost an honorary member of the GCC. He has also been making the right noises about the nuclear deal with Iran and about Syria and the Saudi bombing of Yemen. All of which makes him a welcome guest.

Mostly he has been showing his support for the ‘right’ leaders and (coincidentally) signing lucrative weapons and other contracts. He is already invited (not sure by whom, maybe the Saudis) to attend the next Gulf GCC summit of leaders as an honorary member. That will be just before the leaders head to Camp David for their session of catharsis with Barack Obama.

The French president wants to make sure our princes and potentates know where he stands on (socialist) principle: smack on the side that has the most purchasing power. He also wants to give them some pointers on how to properly deal with the les Americains.

I expect that once he loses the next presidential election in France, M. Hollande will follow in the footsteps of former British (New Labor) leader Tony (the Weasel) Blair. He will become a roving world lobbyist for two of the world’s Wahhabi powers, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The third Wahhabi power, the Caliphate of ISIS or DAESH is in no mood right now to receive M. Hollande in Raqqa or Mosul. Ditto for Al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula- AQAP. But give it some time, and maybe some money.

FYI: No, France has no intention of applying to formally join the Gulf GCC, unlike the escaped former president of Yemen. You see, the wine industry is very important in France, as important as the hijab and burqa are seen as menacing on the streets of Paris. Besides, France will have to wait in line behind Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, European Union, GCC, Yemen

A Solution: Hadi to Join European Union, Erdogan to Join Gulf GCC……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

During the turmoil of the Arab uprisings of 2011, the Saudi king came up with an interesting idea, what Americans would call “a dilly”. He invited two unlikely Arab kingdoms to join the Gulf Cooperation Council– GCC: humorless Jordan and faraway but certainly more exotic Morocco. Even though the two countries are not located on the Persian Gulf, unlike for example Iraq or Iran or even the United States Navy. Anyway, I opined loudly and persistently that it will never happen, that it was a knee-jerk reaction by the Saudis to the Arab turmoil around them. I suggested that they will end up at most with a sort of watered-down ‘association’. As it happened the Arab turmoil turned the wrong way, and the princes used their money wisely to influence events in Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Or so they thought. There was even some loose talk of membership and maybe association with military-ruled Egypt. Yemen was never mentioned at that time.

The invitations to the kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan were quietly shelved. The assumption was that Yemen can also forget about it. Now that the country is in turmoil, its former president is on the run, the issue comes up. Reports claim that the former president AbdRabuh Hadi is formally applying for membership of the GCC. The man is not even the true president as his term expired last year and he decided to unilaterally extended his own term, in true Arab fashion. I suppose it could be a way to show that he and his ministers are acting like a real ‘government’. Even after escaping first Sanaa and then Aden to the safety of Riyadh.


It will be interesting if the Saudis encouraged them to apply, or if they decided to spring a spring surprise while the Saudis are busy in their own power struggle. It is possible they resorted to this after failing to raise the expected popular militia in support of the air campaign: the opposition to Houthi-Saleh is mainly Southern Independence, Al Qaeda, and some tribal elements.

Either way, his chances of joining the GCC now are zero, mainly because Hadi will never return and rule in Sanaa. He has as much chance to join the GCC as Erdogan of Turkey has of joining the European Union. This is not to say that Yemen does not fit into the GCC, culturally and historically it could fit. But Yemen has three handicaps:
(1) it is a republic not a monarchy, presumably with an elected president;
(2) it is very poor, and;
(3)it is a large country that has more citizens than Saudi Arabia. Which means it can be the most populous country of the GCC, with all the economic and financial pressures that would create on the rest of the GCC.

So, if I were a joking type, which I probably am not, I would suggest that Yemen Hadi has a better chance to join Europe than the GCC and Erdogan Turkey has a better chance to join the GCC than the European Union. I bet you know where this is leading……….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Saudi Arabia, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Is Obama Trapped in the Saudi War on Southern Arabia? You Betcha……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“The Tuesday announcement of an end to Saudi airstrikes on Yemen, followed just a few hours later by more Saudi airstrikes on Yemen, has apparently not made the US bat an eye, and they are still pushing for a continuation of the war. “Obviously the job is not done,” White House officials said, saying they and their allies are “going to be doubling down” on the conflict. The US has been involved in a support role in Yemen, helping Saudi planes pick targets and assisting in the naval blockade which is causing humanitarian shortages……….”

The Saudis have used up a lot of American ammunition and bombs over the heads of the people of Yemen. They could not have done that so easily without a green light from the Obama administration. Nor without American intelligence and targeting, such as it has been in Yemen. And they would not have their ambassador in Washington become the main cheerleader for the war (sans pompoms).

Somehow the Saudis have got the United States to join their recent misadventure in Yemen. President Obama was starting o get a lot of lip from the usual Republican warmongers and jingoists in the Senate as well as complaints from some of the Persian Gulf potentates who had been urging him to get tougher and use the illusory “all options” against Iran. He joined the Yemen attack through American intelligence, targeting and most likely all other noncombat operations. He has also sent a naval task force from the Persian Gulf toward the Gulf of Aden.

Probably not very smart, considering the US has been unable to effectively push back Al Qaeda AQAP in Yemen, and the fact that the Houthis are the most effective enemies of AQAP. And the fact that the Saudis have apparently been careful to use American ordinance only against ‘others’ in Yemen, but not against AQAP.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, GCC, Jihadis, Saudi Arabia, Syria, U.S. Foreign Policy

Jabhat Al Qaeda of Syria: Are Saudis and Turks Selling it to America?……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“Al Mukalla was not the only victory of an al-Qaeda affiliate in recent weeks. In northern Syria, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, led an attack force of between 4,000 and 5,000 jihadis to capture the provincial capital of Idlib whose Syrian army garrison was overwhelmed. Saudi sources revealed that Saudi Arabia and Turkey had both given their backing to Jabhat al-Nusra and other extreme jihadis in seizing Idlib. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states seem intent on rebranding Jabhat al-Nusra and its clones as wholly different from Islamic State (Isis) and therefore acceptable as a potential ally. Al-Nusra may not publicly revel in its own atrocities as does Isis, but otherwise it differs little from it in ideology and tactics. Created by Isis in 2012, it split from the parent movement and fought a bloody inter-rebel civil war against it in early 2014, but today there are worrying signs of cooperation. According to accounts from the Syrian opposition, it was al-Nusra that allowed Isis fighters to take over in recent days most of Yarmouk Palestinian camp a few miles from the centre of Damascus……………..”

A few years when Jabhat Al Nusra emerged, I called it, quite seriously and correctly, Jabhat Al Qaeda of Syria. Knowing its roots and its ideology and its sources of men and money. “Moderate” Syrian opposition leaders across the Turkish border were furious: claiming it was a patriotic militia fighting for freedom. As were few American travelling senators. But all I had to do was read how Wahhabis and Salafis on the Persian Gulf reacted to its emergence. A no brainer, as they say.
It didn’t take long for the Nusra Front to shed its mask, even before the old man in the cave of Al Qaeda designated it the only legitimate subsidiary in Syria.

Now it appears the Saudi princes and ruling Turkish fundamentalists, the Wahhabis and the Ottomans, are trying to rehabilitate it in American eyes. Apparently they have finally given up on the useless dysfunctional Free Syria (Salfi) Army. And on the other entities they have tried to form in Turkey and in Jordan. No doubt some patriotic senators in the U.S. will jump at the chance, all memories of September 11 fading. The “enemy” now is someone else, someone Al Qaeda also opposes.
Some media are now speculating that Turkey and Saudi Arabia will launch an invasion of Syria in order to “liberate” it. That would come after the Saudis finish destroying Yemen with their unlimited supply of bombs thrown from a safe distance of 40 thousand feet.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Southern Arabia: a Faltering Storm………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

 

KuwaitCox2

“Iran’s leader on Thursday condemned as genocide the military intervention by its main regional rival Saudi Arabia in Yemen, sharply escalating Tehran’s rhetoric against the two-week-old air strike campaign. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Saudi Arabia would not emerge victorious from the war in Yemen, where Iran-allied Houthi fighters who control the capital Sanaa have been trying to seize the southern city of Aden from local militias. Iran has repeatedly urged a halt in the air strikes and called for dialogue in Yemen, but Khamenei’s comments are the most critical yet from Tehran about the offensive by Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies………….”

Two weeks of American-supported and coordinated brutal Saudi bombings have failed to achieve any results other than destroy the fragile infrastructure of Yemen. The best and most expensive machines of war that the West has ever produced have been pitted against the poorest Arab country outside Africa, against a Houthi militia and its army allies. So far it has been a failure, whatever goal its planning princes had in mind. So far. The result must have shocked the attackers (Saudi Arabia and its allies): predictable air supremacy for one side against supremacy on the ground for the other.
So, the Yemeni-Houthi air force has been effectively destroyed or grounded. The Yemeni-Houthi ground offensive continues to gobble up territory from Sanaa to Aden to Shabwah. Other army units, possibly infuriated by foreign warplanes raining death and destruction on their country, on their people, have shifted allegiance to the Houthis and Saleh and handed other bases over. We can say that the escaped ex-president AbdRabuh (so far) Mansour Hadi now controls only part of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. That is the area where he lives. (Those fighting the Houthi-Saleh forces around Aden are mostly southern secessionists (Hirak), not Hadi loyalists as Western media report).

This alleged Decisive Storm, led by a young Saudi prince, a defense minister who is reported to be younger than 30 years, has been not so decisive. They have intensified the bombings, possibly in frustration. So far Decisive Storm looks to confirm my earlier description of it: more like a Stupid Storm quickly morphing into a Faltering Storm, rather than a remake of Desert Storm. So far………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

War on Yemen: Hadi from His Peanut Gallery Exile……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Former President General AbdRabuh Mansour Hadi of Yemen and his foreign minister are ensconced in luxurious quarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. From whence they have called and urged a violent foreign bombing campaign against their country and their people. Having seen their opponents, the Houth-Saleh alliance, continue to gain ground in spite of intense Saudi bombardment, they are now urging a full foreign invasion of their country. In order to return them to power. But I have already issued a final fatwa that Hadi will not return to rule in Sanaa no matter who “wins” this complex war.

So, why isn’t “General” Hadi, the escaped former president, the escaped military general, in Aden now leading the fight he is urging everyone else in Yemen to wage? Why is he not leading the fight against the Houthi-Saleh alliance. And maybe against Al Qaeda (AQAP) and maybe ISIS and even the Southern Independence Movement (Hirak)? And maybe expose himself to the same foreign Western-Saudi bombs his people face every day?
Instead of joining the faraway media peanut gallery in Riyadh? Confining himself to urging others to fight and expose their families to catcalling from far away, like us “peaceful” bloggers and tweeps?

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Yemen

Arabian Peninsula: Is Decisive Storm Really a Desert Storm or a Stupid Storm?………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

In the Gulf GCC countries that are bombing Yemen, you get arrested and imprisoned if you publicly criticize this war being waged by air against the poorest Arab country outside Africa. The war is done in alliance with Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and at least two Western powers who supply the weapons and provide the logistics and intelligence. Pakistan and Malaysia are being coy, but it is almost certain the former ia supplying some personnel.
As I said, one goes to prison for publicly opposing this war that probably was imposed on the GCC by the Saudis. The doubters have been right so far. Decisive Storm has not been decisive yet, has not decided anything except to visit misery, death, injury, and homelessness on the people of Yemen. While the escaped former president, the weakling AbdRAbuh Hadi, and his ministers egg on the attackers from luxury accommodations in Saudi Arabia.

So far the war has not achieved any strategic success. Since it started a week ago, the Houthis and their military allies have completed their takeover of Aden and Bab El Mandab Strait on the Red Sea. Perhaps the idea is to weaken them enough with bombardment for an easy ground attack or to force them to accept Hadi. Neither is realistic. Hadi is out and for good. He was never popular inside Yemen. Any leader that invites a foreign attack on his country and people does not usually return to power, as per my last fatwa.

The whole concept of Decisive Storm is based on the Desert Storm campaign that freed Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991. Softening with bombardment, and then……….what? Can you imagine a Saudi and Egyptian expeditionary force slugging it in the rugged Yemeni landscape? And what would the other side do?
That is why I prefer to call it Stupid Storm. Unless they can prove otherwise……..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

The Myth of a Proxy War in Yemen………..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Western media are stuck on this “proxy war” idea. They keep claiming that “Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting a proxy war in Yemen“. “Proxy” means having someone else do the fighting for you. Now, those dropping the bombs on Yemen, killing people and destroying cities are NOT proxies, they are the Saudis (or whoever is flying their bombers) who are firing the missiles on Yemen. They are butchering Yemenis. And the Houthis are not Iranian proxies. The Houthis have been fighting either the Saudi princes or the Yemeni central government for many decades. They may have moved closer to Iran now because of the regional alignment against them, but they do not take orders from Tehran: that is a ridiculous claim to anybody who has read about them.

It is good propaganda to throw in the name ‘Iran’ for Western consumption. It gets people like Senator McCain and other warmongers all riled up. It silences any inclination to protest the brutal bombing campaign against the Yemeni people. But it is a futile war in the end. It is a war with the goal of allowing the Saudis to determine who will rule Yemen (well, maybe a couple of major cities in Yemen). You all know, as do the Saudis now, that AbdRabuh Hadi (99.8% of the vote, LOL) will never return to rule in Sanaa. Not after he invited foreign bombers against its people. As per my last fatwa about Hadi’s Last Look at Sanaa.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, Saudi Arabia, War, Yemen

Arab Despots Finally Find Someone They Think They Can Defeat, Poorer Arabs……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

The princes of the Persian Gulf countries must have spent almost a trillion dollars on weapons and related services in the past decade or so. Many princes and potentates and their families have accumulated huge fortunes from commissions and kickbacks (never called bribes in polite mixed company) on these arms deals. I and others have often commented that these weapons are imported and left to rust in the desert, unless they can be used for repression and crowd control.

Now the princes and potentates are setting out to prove me and others wrong. They have finally found someone they think they can beat on or so they think. So they are carpet bombing the major cities of the poorest Arab country outside Africa, Yemen. As long as they stick to aerial bombing they are doing fine from their point of view, killing Yemenis and destroying Yemen.

They may, they should, hesitate to actually enter the land of Yemen: they have tried it before and got whipped, both the Saudis and their Egyptian sidekicks. Still, they may decide to end this curse of Yemen by using imported mercenary armies as cannon fodder, or Houthi-fodder. Pakistanis, Jordanians, Egyptians, Moroccans, and perhaps Bengalis. People the princes deem expendable.

They are crowing, these entitled princes, in their media that they are achieving a great victory, from a distance. As they kill and destroy their neighbors. Soon it will be time for the pop corn as the real battle is joined on land.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Yemen War: Rich Men’s Bombs, Poor Men’s Blood…..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2S

Some interesting points about this Rich Man-Poor Man alliance attacking Yemen these days:

  • Rich Men: As some on social media have noted, it is led by the richest anti-democratic ruling Arab oligarchies. With support and ‘unspecified but essential’ help from the Obama administration. It has hired some of the poorer Arab countries (Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, Jordan, Morocco) and Muslim countries (Pakistan) to provide help, possibly cannon fodder if they are forced to engage in a ground war.
  • Poor Men: All this power, the most expensive weapons that petro-money can buy from the Western democracies, mobilized in this attack. To attack one of the poorest Arab countries, in fact the poorest Arab country outside Africa.
  • Command Center:The Houthis were quick to note that the war was declared in Washington, by the Saudi ambassador (who was ignored by most American media). They claim this means the war is managed by Americans. Otherwise, why not declare it publicly in Riyadh?
  • Land Issues: The Houthis, and other Yemenis, have started to discuss the ‘ northern regions’ which are under Saudi control.  Names like Assir, Najran, Jizan come to mind. Those were all regions of northern Yemen that were occupied and annexed by the Saudis in the 20th century. They now say that these regions should be “discussed”. Most of the populations of these regions are Zaidis, of the same sect as the Houthis.
  • Alliances: Still, it not not clear what the Houthi’s goals are either. It is true, they are now allied with their former enemy, wily dictator Al Abdallah Salih. But the Saudis and Qataris, great democrats that they are, are allied with the butcher of Sudan, a man wanted by the ICC. And the dictator of Egypt, who should be wanted by the ICC.

So, the plot thickens, as this bombing attack on Yemen drags on………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]