Tag Archives: Iran Talks

Iran, Middle East Nuclear, nuclear Iran, U.S. Foreign Policy, United Nations International Organizations

The Nuclear Rumble in Lausanne: Will There Be a Deal?……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

E= M*C2 ……… “a” nuclear physics theory

“Iran will insist that all sanctions against it are lifted as a condition for a nuclear deal, the foreign minister said on Wednesday, showing no sign of compromise on a major sticking point in its talks with world powers set to resume this week. “This is the position that the government has insisted on from the start,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying. The United Nations, United States and European Union have imposed a wide array of sanctions on Iran…………”

The noise, cacophony, about the nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 world powers is focused on the actions of the Iranian side. How many centrifuges, how many plants, what degree of uranium enrichment, how intrusive the inspections, etc. The public focus is on one side, as far as Western opinion, analysis, and punditry is concerned.
But it takes (at least) two to tango. Not much public talk goes on about the other side of the equation. The other partner in the tango is ignored.The elephant the media and the pundits here in America rarely if ever mention. That would be the Western blockade (called sanctions in the West). The pull and push between these two sides of the equation, nuclear enrichment vs. the blockade, goes on furiously inside the talks (just as Netanyahu and his agents inside the talks).
We hear so much about different formulae for permissible enrichment, one side of the equation, the E side. But we hear almost nothing about the other side of the famous and often misunderstood equation, M*C2, how to lift the blockade (the equivalent of M in this case since C is fixed). The enrichment can be monitored, it can be turned off and cut back relatively quickly. The blockade will become an American political issue, as is everything else in this country these days in this era of American political civil war.

The good news is, whatever the outcome of these talks, deal or no deal, some of the major powers will know that a big chunk of the blame falls on the Israeli lobby in America and the Saudi-Qatari money lobby in France. They will most likely start ignoring parts of the blockade that are not sanctioned by the United Nations. Unfortunately, that may also mean the Iranians will be off the hook, and the suspicions will mount….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Espionage, Iran, Israel, Mossad, nuclear Iran

Nuclear Talks: Bibi Bond, KGBibi, Lebanon or Yemen…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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“Soon after the U.S. and other major powers entered negotiations last year to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, senior White House officials learned Israel was spying on the closed-door talks. The spying operation was part of a broader campaign by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to penetrate the negotiations and then help build a case against the emerging terms of the deal, current and former U.S. officials said. In addition to eavesdropping, Israel acquired information from confidential U.S. briefings, informants and diplomatic contacts in Europe, the officials said .The espionage didn’t upset the White House as much as Israel’s sharing of inside information with U.S. lawmakers and others………………”

The famous tail spying on the famous dog the better to be able to wag it. So Netanyahu got some trusted Americans to spy for him. He also got some trusted ‘European officials’ (yes, there are some) to help, could be French, could be others. Interesting: a foreign leader gets American and possibly European bureaucrats and/or diplomats to spy for him on other U.S. diplomats in order to use the information with the Congress to derail American diplomatic talks. Might as well have the Mossad or that Las Vegas gambling tycoon as part of the US delegation. Or, maybe worse, have a former Republican congressional aide as part of the delegation. They used to shoot these people, didn’t they? Interesting to see how members of the Senate and Congress react (probably McCain advising Obama to get over his tantrum, please)

It is almost like being in a more peaceful version of a milder Yemen (or Lebanon): different political fighting factions, some of them allied with foreign powers. Except here is no real fighting. Just a push for war.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Blockade of Iran, Iran, U.S. Foreign Policy, United Nations International Organizations

Kerry and Zarif: Three Is Not a Crowd in France………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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“A veto-proof, bipartisan majority of House lawmakers have signed an open letter to President Barack Obama warning him that any nuclear deal with Iran will effectively require congressional approval for implementation. A group of bipartisan senators have penned a bill mandating that any deal be reviewed and approved by Congress, but the House letter notes that lawmakers have another way to halt an agreement — by refusing to roll back sanctions………..”

Secretary of State John Kerry and Javad Zarif of Iran have been seeing each other a lot. Mr. Kerry has probably seen the Iranian minister more than any other foreign minister, certainly much more than Avigdor Liberman (I know, I know: Avigdor Who?) or Benyamin Netanyahu. I am sure he is content with not seeing the latter two, as would any minister or leader outside the United States. They seem to get along fine, might even be bonding: there are smiles and lakeside walks and long chats. But underneath it all there are short taut strings for both men, the Iranian and the American.
I can just imagine the Frenchie Laurent Fabius lurking around, crashing their intimate talks, wanting to hear it all, scheming to throw new wrenches into the process. A representative of other non-participating potentates. And to think that there is a French equivalent of “three is a crowd“, although this may not always be the case in France, if you get my drift.
It is remotely possible that if the Iran nuclear talks are derailed by the many evil forces working to do so, one of these men will defect to the other country. It can be either one of them. Unless they both defect at the same time…….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Iran, Israel, U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Politics

The New American Jihadist Movement: Over There ……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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“In 2006, when the Times published a piece revealing that the government, in the name of fighting terrorism, had collected the private financial information of Americans who had nothing to do with terrorism, Cotton, then an Army lieutenant stationed in Baghdad, sent a letter to the newspaper, saying that the editors should be put “behind bars.” ………… In 2012, he was elected to the House, where one of his first acts was to call for an amendment to a sanctions bill that would impose penalties not only on those who broke the law but also on their relatives, including their “great-grandkids,” “to the third degree of sanguinity.” The amendment failed—as the Washington Post pointed out, it was blatantly unconstitutional—but Cotton didn’t have much time for regret, because he had already decided to run for the Senate against Mark Pryor, the two-term Democratic incumbent, with the backing of the Tea Party Express…………..”

He said: “impose penalties not only on those who broke the law but also on their relatives, including their “great-grandkids,” “to the third degree of sanguinity.” But then he was a brash young man at the time. A brash middle-aged but powerful man can be even more dangerous.

The various American wars in the Middle East and in Muslim lands have created a whole cottage industry of people and institutions that profit from warmongering and guilt by association. And the prospects are promising for more. Never been more promising.

They have had their eyes set on an Iran war, Mother of all Middle East wars. Even the Bush (43) chickenhawks would not take the plunge: shows you how far the Republicans (and a few Democrats) have gone. Imagine how long it could last and how much it would cost and how high some defense company shares can go. And how higher that would raise the barrier along the Jordan River, even higher, one of the goals that are not articulated.

Oh, and about “the letter” to Iran meant to scuttle the nuclear negotiations and possibly provoke a new Middle East war. Juan Cole reports that Tom Cotton received over $700, 000 for his senate campaign from the right-wing Emergency Committee for Israel, another group of well-funded and frustrated but hopeful chickenhawks. Principles, even those of warmongering, don’t come cheap. But then most Republicans and many Democrats in Washington already know that.

It is a new American Jihadist movement. Just like the terrorist Caliphate of ISIS, it seeks to dominate here and to impose its will and that of its donors ‘over there’. Through continued political war here, and continued military campaigns ‘over there’.  That requires a lot of money.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]

Iran, Israel, Khamenei, Nuclear, U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Politics

Iran Nuclear Talks: Netanyahu May Win Again…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

2012: “Following his speech to the United Nations General Assembly this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Friday that he is “pretty satisfied” with his trip to the U.S. to instigate World War III. “All in all, I think I accomplished my goal of pushing humanity toward the brink of complete and utter annihilation,” said Netanyahu, adding that his implicit calls for international military action against Iran, which would ultimately escalate the conflict to an Armageddon-level of death and destruction…………” 

2014: “Asserting the Middle Eastern nation’s right to a safe, peaceful energy program, members of the Iranian diplomatic team attempted to seek more favorable terms of a deal with the P5+1 global powers while openly assembling a nuclear weapon in the negotiating room, sources confirmed Monday. “Iran will not agree to any international accord without a total and immediate lifting of Western sanctions,” said Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to representatives from China, Russia, and the United States while inserting a U-238 tamper sphere into a thermonuclear weapon on the floor of Coburg Palace………….”

Benyamin Netanyahu is determined to come to Washington soon, an unwelcome guest at the White House. In the past Netanyahu had relished every occasion to kick Obama in the shin (someone else’s term). Now he has become more ambitious, he has been emboldened by the U.S. Congress and other Likudnik Americans to aim higher, literally and figuratively. He is seeking to inflict more pain on the president in his own capital. Congress is helping Netanyahu kick Mr. Obama (still President Obama) again, straight in the testicles. If you grew up playing soccer, you know that no kick is more painful than that.
The powerful war party in Washington may win its battle and the nuclear talks may end without “success”, unless Obama stands firm. Already the Iranian supreme leader Khamenei seems to expect this victory for the Israeli right-wing (and left-wing actually). He has talked almost in sync with some Americans: Khamenei said this week that it makes no sense to extend the nuclear talks beyond the current deadline.
Back to the beginning. Some Iranians, and most Arabs especially outside the Persian Gulf region, have always suspected that the harsh unilateral Western blockade pushed by the Israeli lobby and voted dutifully by a pliant Congress was about more than the nuclear program. That there was a broader and more ambitious Israeli and other regional agenda behind it. The way some hawkish campaign-fund-hungry senators of both parties speak almost openly about it, those Iranians are probably right. It has evolved into something more broad that is hard to dismantle, with a full bureaucracy in Washington that naturally seeks to survive.

So what next? The blockade has failed to bring the Iranians to heel. It has brought them to the table, but without the white flag of surrender. Like all economic blockades it has inflicted a lot of pain on the people and not the regime, but they seem resilient and have become experts at evading some of its consequences. Are ‘all option on the table’ as the conventional press-conference bullshit says? That depends on how far the U.S. Congress is willing to push the White House, which depends on how much pressure the Israeli lobby will apply to the Congress as the U.S. heads toward the crucial but very expensive 2016 general elections. Mucho dinero needed these days for a campaign, almost any campaign.

Good news is that Barack Obama has no more political ambitions. For the first time since 2007 he does not need to pander to anyone anymore. That is when some recent U.S. presidents have become truly presidential. We may hear from Mr. Obama on all these issues after 2016, after the fog of campaign needs is lifted.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter