Tag Archives: GCC

Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, Saudi Arabia, War, Yemen

Arab Despots Finally Find Someone They Think They Can Defeat, Poorer Arabs……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

The princes of the Persian Gulf countries must have spent almost a trillion dollars on weapons and related services in the past decade or so. Many princes and potentates and their families have accumulated huge fortunes from commissions and kickbacks (never called bribes in polite mixed company) on these arms deals. I and others have often commented that these weapons are imported and left to rust in the desert, unless they can be used for repression and crowd control.

Now the princes and potentates are setting out to prove me and others wrong. They have finally found someone they think they can beat on or so they think. So they are carpet bombing the major cities of the poorest Arab country outside Africa, Yemen. As long as they stick to aerial bombing they are doing fine from their point of view, killing Yemenis and destroying Yemen.

They may, they should, hesitate to actually enter the land of Yemen: they have tried it before and got whipped, both the Saudis and their Egyptian sidekicks. Still, they may decide to end this curse of Yemen by using imported mercenary armies as cannon fodder, or Houthi-fodder. Pakistanis, Jordanians, Egyptians, Moroccans, and perhaps Bengalis. People the princes deem expendable.

They are crowing, these entitled princes, in their media that they are achieving a great victory, from a distance. As they kill and destroy their neighbors. Soon it will be time for the pop corn as the real battle is joined on land.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, GCC, Kuwait, Yemen

GCC Opposition and Yemen and a Me-Too State………..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“All is fair in war, nothing is fair in love“   Unsaid Wahhabi saying

“War is Deception“   Hadith

The GCC opposition groups of the Gulf states, such as they are, have reacted in interesting ways to the war on Yemen:

  • The Saudis have different group that can fall under opposition or reformist categories. The extreme Wahhabi opposition, those who support Al Qaeda and ISIS, have the attitude that “better late than never”. They are strongly for the attack on Yemen, just as they pray for an Israeli or American or Vulcan attack on Iran (to them all is fair in war, if not in love). Others of the opposition who are not so-extreme-Wahhabi are apparently also for the attack. Or most of them like being silent.
  • The same seems to be the case with the Kuwaiti opposition, many of whose factions are under control or Salafi, Muslim Brotherhood, and reactionary tribal elements. Even the more quasi-liberal wing of it is Wahhabi-ized to the extent that they strongly hint at support for the attack on Yemen. They also try to deceptively and hypocritically fudge the issue, deliberately calling it the “Houthi war” rather than the “Yemen war“. Which falls within the Saudi narrative, which is how they look at almost all regional and international issues. They are also strongly against the Bahrain uprising. It is largely sectarian, but then the Shi’as are the same but on the other side. The Shi’as are mostly against this war on Yemen and the Houthis.
  • The UAE doesn’t have any opposition, as far as the Ruling Brothers can tell us. Nor does Qatar. As for Bahrain, well, it is the ultimate Me-TOO state. Whatever the Saudis do is fine by them.
  • Oman seems to be the sanest GCC country these days, and the most independent in decision-making. They would have nothing to do with this war on Yemen.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Caliphate, GCC, Iraq, Mercenaries, US Foreign Policy

Fog of War: Iraqi Militias, American Militias, Mercenary Militias……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Militias have suddenly retaken the center stage in media and in public official discussions of recent developments in Iraq. Apparently Shi’a ‘militias’ are now taking an important role in the Iraqi counteroffensive against the terrorists of the so-called Islamic State, ISIS.

There is no denying that some of the Iraqi Shi’a militias can be as nasty as the other armed factions in Iraq. The experience of the mini-civil-war of 2006-2008 showed that. But they are in no way comparable to the Wahhabi cutthroats of Al Qaeda or ISIS, regardless of the nonsensical stuff Gen. Petraeus said recently. Yet there is now a bigger storm of foreign criticism of Iraqis hiring or allowing ‘militias’ to fight government battles. This is especially true in the United States.

Yet hiring and/or using private militias is a worldwide phenomenon in this era of war-for-profit. Apparently there is no stigma on hiring private militias if the militias are Westerners and those who hire them are Western governments. Both the Bush and Obama administrations have been known and reported  to rely on private contractors (the Western equivalent of militias) in battle zones. We have read about the American millionaires that were made in Iraq. So, the complaints about Iraqis using militias when they have an army of 200 or 300 thousand sound hypocritical and hollow. The United States has a standing military of millions, yet there is increased dependence on contractors in military zones and even in protecting diplomats and high military officials (as reportedly happened in Iraq).

I shall not speak extensively here about those other hired foreign militias down the Persian Gulf. They are hired by the princes and potentates from humorless places like Jordan, often through the government and certainly with its approval, as well as from Pakistan and other distant lands. These are used to keep the people repressed in such places, and to conduct thorough and ‘enhanced interrogations’ of the restive ones among the native populations. So it can be irksome that princes and potentates who hire foreign mercenaries (essentially militias) to torment their own people complain about Iraqi militias.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Enemy of the Enemy of My Friend: Northern Yemen, Southern Yemen, Eastern Yemen, USA, USA………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

North Yemen, what used to be called Yemen throughout most of modern history is now largely under control of Houthis and their other allies. Largely but not totally, and it is a fluid situation, as it has been in Yemen for almost forever. The Arab princes and potentates of the Persian Gulf have cut off their aid, seriously harming the innocent people of Yemen in order to punish their new leaders: that is how all blockades and sanctions usually work. The Iranians are reported to be supplying foreign aid and possibly weapons to the Houthis, who dutifully raise Iranian-style anti-American banners even as they welcome American drones attacking their mortal Al Qaeda (and maybe soon ISIS) enemies.

South Yemen, what used to be called Southern Arabia (or the Arabian South) under the British and later the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen after independence. Before it merged with (north) Yemen under Colonel Salih in early 1990. It is now more fragmented even than after the British withdrew from Aden. General President AbRabuh Hadi, a nominal southerner, allegedly rules in Aden, rules in parts of it anyway, with some other allies in the outskirts. He receives Western and GCC dignitaries and ambassadors, although it is not clear how many of these ambassadors actually hang around Aden after the media cameras are gone.

The Southern Independence Movement (Hirak) controls the hearts and minds in the South and they don’t welcome anyone who wants to bring them back under Sanaa control. It is a severe case of ‘buyer’s remorse’. Al Qaeda (AQAP) terrorists control large chunks of the south, including a few towns. The murderous Caliphate of ISIS (DAESH) is apparently also making some inroads, but nothing on a military scale yet.
There are also, like in the North Yemen, tribal undercurrents and conflicts in “both” parts now, actually in “all” parts of Yemen.

So, the free-for-all starts. So, whether you are an Arab, a Muslim, or otherwise: turn off your conscience, stifle your emotions, harden your heart, get some popcorn, and watch the bloody tragedy………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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European Union, GCC, Human Right, MENA, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

Potentates of the Gulf Unite! (Against Human Rights)………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has recalled the UAE ambassador to Sweden in wake of comments the country’s foreign minister made about Saudi Arabia. In addition to recalling the ambassador, Sultan Rashid Al Kaitoob, the ministry also summoned the Swedish ambassador to the UAE, Jan Thesleff, and delivered a formal memorandum of protest over Swedish foreign minister Margot Wallstrom’s remarks, state news agency Wam reported. Dr Anwar Gargash, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, highlighted the “condemnation by the UAE of strong statements made by the Foreign Minister of Sweden to the Swedish Parliament against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its judicial system”. Dr Gargash stressed that these statements violate the principle of sovereignty……………..”

This show of outrage by the princes and potentates and their minions. Supposedly ‘sisterly or brotherly’ outrage as Gulf media and officials like to call it. This outrage would be funny if it were not outrageous. Coming from Persian Gulf potentates who meddle in Libya and Syria and Iraq and Lebanon and Bahrain and Egypt, among other places. Who paid billions to crush the Tahrir Uprising by the military and help repress Bahrain even as they claim to seek to liberate Syria and steer it towards the joys of Wahhabism.

So why would the Abu Dhabi potentates protest a diplomatic issue between two other countries? Maybe it is a case of “If the shoe fits, wear it“. In Arabic it would be “He who has a bump on his head will reach and touch it” (اللي على راسه بطحة يتحسسها).

Likely it has to do with a (non-mathematical) principle of transfer. They also do it, so maybe they expect the Swedish diplomats to mention them as well at some point. They feel entitled to certain consideration and accommodation, because they can threaten to block lucrative contracts (some may consider it a sort of blackmail). You never see the British or French governments talk about human rights in these countries. Why do you suppose that is so? Certainly it has nothing to do with principles: both these European governments leave their principles on the other side of the Mediterranean before they hit our shores. They always have.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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GCC, Iran, Persian Gulf, Piss-Up in a Brewery

More Gulf Military Exercises Near the Strait of Hormuz…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Some Arab media quote a UAE (Emirates) ‘prominent analyst’ that a number of GCC countries will hold naval military exercises in the Persian Gulf. The analyst mentioned something about the exercise being a message to a ‘threatening Iran’. But he also hinted that enhanced operational field coordination is an important goal. In other words, learning to organize the proverbial piss-up in a brewery, which is more essential for the success of any military operation than accumulating expensive hardware.

They report the exercises will be held in the area of the Strait of Hormuz and not far from three disputed islands that are held by Iran (Abu Moussa, and the Tunbs). It is not clear to me how close to Hormuz they will be held, if they will be held at all. Nor how reliable this ‘analyst’ who leaked the news is, although they report that he is ‘close’ to UAE policy-makers. No report if some of the participating countries that heavily use imported mercenaries (UAE, Bahrain) will bring along these foreign mercenaries to join the exercises.
This comes days after the Iranians held their own exercises near the area, where they targeted a replica of a U.S. naval warship (a flat top). A cute but snidely touch by the humorless mullahs, although the timing may not have been smart.

No doubt the region is getting weirder by the week. From the Gulf to Libya. Which possibly explains the state of this particular post of mine.

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Politics, GCC, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

GCC and Pliable Arab Revolutionaries: Qatari-Saudi Micro Cold War……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Apparently the other Wahhabi dispute, the Saudi-Qatari dispute is alive and well. It is usually swept under the rug just before GCC summits, and briefly. In fact it has been around for a couple of decades, ever since the Saudis tried to engineer a coup d’etat in Doha in the 1990s. The coup failed, but many high Saudi intelligence officers were caught in Qatar and jailed for years.

More recently there was the Libyan episode. Qatar expressed opposition to Egyptian bombings in Libya whereby the Egyptians openly accused Qatar of supporting terrorism, a very Egyptian reaction. The GCC automatically issues a statement in support of a member country in the face of accusations by outsiders. They did it this time in defense of Qatar, which angered the Saudis who came to the aid of their man Al Sisi. The secretary general of the GCC, a Bahraini potentate, was ordered to rescind his earlier defense of Qatar. He had to quickly issue another statement against his own earlier statement. So the Saudi-Qatari dispute goes on.

Meanwhile, the potentates of Qatar have been busy. They were reported yesterday to have just signed a military agreement with fellow Muslim Brotherhood supporter Turkey. Media reports also claim the Qataris may have paid enough money to buy Al-Nusra Front away from Al-Qaeda, or maybe they have just rented Al Nusra for a period of time. If true, this will have implications not only for Syria, but also for Lebanon. The Qataris are still aiming to own Syria through some other proxy. They apparently have an urge to own some other country besides France. They lost Egypt last year to the Saudi-UAE (Abu Dhabi) potentates who practically drowned Al Sisi and his generals with billions of dollars. That may explain why Al Sisi and his aides thought that to the Gulf rulers billions of dollars are like grains of rice, numerous.

Apparently almost everybody in the Arab world is up for sale now, including many former ‘revolutionaries’. Not to be outdone by the military and Sisi, Egypt’s Tamarrud movement was also reportedly bought by the Abu Dhabi potentates of the UAE as far back as 2012. Long may the revolution live, and may all Arab revolutionaries prosper from oil money, and not just in Egypt.

Stay tuned………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]

Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Caliphate, Yemen

From Arabia Felix to an Arab Prototype……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Yemen gets even more complex almost by the day, and who could have thunk it only a few weeks ago? It is now almost a prototype of a failed Arab state, in a similar league with a few others like Somalia and Libya and Syria: 

  • Houthis now control the capital Sanaa and the North: they are strongly aligned against Islah and AQAP (always) .
  • Houthis reportedly aligned with former president Saleh (for now: he still has influence with the army and security forces).
  • Houthis turn against Saleh (maybe soon as they tighten their control of the central state institutions, such as they are).
  • AQAP are against Houthis (always, a Wahhabi-Shi’a conflict, among other issues).
  • Former president General Hadi against Houthis (normal struggle of the provinces against Sanaa, in addition to the influence of Hadi-backers among Saudi and Gulf princes).
  • Houthis against all the above (normal in this situation of regional/tribal/sectarian rivalry: at some point all these groups will have to face each other).
  • AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) against all the above (possibly temporary alliances with some, for example now against the Houthis who always have a priority as enemies).
  • Hirak (the strong South Yemen independence movement) against all of the above (with likely temporary alliances with some of the others). Hirak may have preferred former president General Hadi (a southerner) because he was a weak leader with no political base, hence not much of a threat to anyone’s aspirations.
  • Some smaller remnants of the once-potent pan-Arab and Nasserist and socialist movements. As well as a few other parties, including the party of Saleh. I even saw a Green Party listed somewhere: not sure if it refers to environmental concerns or the chewable ‘qat (gat). No significant influence now.
  • Throw in there a mix of various tribal forces and influences, just to make things more complicated and more interesting.
  • GCC against Houthis and maybe Islah (ex-Qatar which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and hence Islah).
  • Iran against all the above (ex-Houthis and possibly other allies of convenience).
  • USA against AQAP (what else is new? And maybe against the Houthis in the future, but that would be a tough nut to crack).

IS or ISIS, the new kid on the block. It is showing some signs of life as well in Yemen: definitely against all comers. Unless they pledge allegiance to the silly but murderous Caliph WhatIsHisFace.

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]

Al-Qaeda, GCC, Yemen

Battle Lines in Southern Arabia: Bears in the Forest…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Here is where the Yemen situation stood yesterday (it is morning here, it could have changed overnight). Things move fast over there:

  • Former president Hadi escaped to Aden a few days ago, as soon as the Houthis allowed him free movement. Apparently he is trying now to establish a shadow authority in the south. He will have to contend with two powerful forces in South Yemen: the Independence Movement (Hirak) and Al Qaeda (AQAP).
  • Not clear how Hirak (movement to regain Southern independence) will deal with Hadi (someone called him Al Zombie, but not me). Not clear how AQAP will deal with him. Both strong in South Yemen. Not to mention his former partners, the Islah Islamists.
  • Gulf GCC ambassadors (at least Saudi and Qatari) will move embassies to Aden now. GCC Secretary General Al Zayani a Bahraini potentate, has already visited Hadi in Aden. The media showed Zayani, suspiciously reeking of Old Spice, smirking at the cameras. 
  • Houthis seem frustrated now by the turn of events, and it shows. Abdel Malik al Houthi (Americanized as AMH) spoke that Hadi was a Saudi-American stooge (perhaps because he was put in place by GCC with US blessing). He added that any ambassador who doesn’t like Sanaa is welcome to move (a no brainer but thanks for the invite). Adding that Saudi money did not help the Yemeni people much (that is true, it did not help the poor much). It would be more helpful if they allow Yemeni labor instead of restricting them.
  • There have been no reports that the American drone campaign against AQAP terrorists has slowed down by recent political developments. No objection has been voiced by Houthis or their rivals to continued drone activity, not yet.
  • Iranian and Hezbollah media are now moving faster in support of the Houthis. As the GCC moves quickly to set up their own acceptable regime in Aden. Would this indicate that more sectarian polarization in Yemen and the Middle East is to be expected? Do bears pee in the forest?
  • Yesterday‘s report from UN that deposed president Saleh had amassed $60 billion over the years seems farfetched (actually the figures are ridiculous). Yemen is too poor to allow anyone an opportunity to steal $ 60 bin. As I tweeted yesterday, even some Saudi princes may find it hard to steal $60 billion. I just don’t believe it. I believe the stealing but not the numbers: all Arab leaders are entitled to steal and they all do so.

So, back to two Yemens? Will the GCC start supporting the old Marxist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Arabia)? Or will we continue with about four Yemens for some time?
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]

Arab Revolutions, Caliphate, GCC, Jihadists, Syria

Strategic Science Fiction: Unified Arab Force, Unified Arab Farce…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“As threats in the Middle East grow, there’s a pressing need in the region, Egypt’s President said Sunday. “The need for a unified Arab force is growing and becoming more pressing every day,” President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said in a televised address, noting that Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have offered to send troops as Egypt steps up its efforts to battle ISIS in neighboring Libya………”

Also sprach Field Marshal Al Sisi, elected president of Egypt by almost 98% of the vote last year.
They are now talking about a unified Arab force to fight the murderous jihadis of ISIS from Libya to Syria and Iraq. And possibly fight ‘others’ after that. From Arab politicians to Western media pundits and retired generals and even former CIA agents. Everybody is suddenly a strategist: a Napoleon and a Caesar.

There has never been an effective unified Arab force in modern times. There is a joint Gulf GCC force called the Peninsula Shield that was supposed to be a joint “defense” force against external threats. It failed its only chance to defend when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, by not showing up. The only ‘operation’ on its resume has been to intervene in Bahrain and crush the pro-democracy uprising there during the Arab Spring of 2011. This is typical of Arab armed forces: their priority is protection of the ruling order against internal unrest. We have seen this across the board, from Libya to Egypt to Syria and Bahrain and Yemen.

A joint Arab force to fight the Caliphate of IS? With actual casualties and body bags? Unlikely that the Arab countries can sustain the needed human costs. Besides the hesitation to enter, say, Syria and become sitting ducks between the two sides, the Jihadis and the Syrian army and its allies. Just imagine humorless Jordanian and United Arab Emirates troops facing two formidable opponents in a two-front war: skilled experienced and suicidal Wahhabi Jihadists and Syrian army veterans plus Hezbollah. The UAE, with barely 1 million citizens, reportedly has an imported foreign mercenary force for its own internal security. Just imagining the Emirates in such a battle merits a resounding WTF plus an LOL (and possibly an Oscar for science fiction).

The first battle might be the last one, a Waterloo. Besides, a unified Arab military force would be the worst thing to happen to the Arab peoples now. It will only lead to unified repression: one force with one strategy and one deadly force to keep the repression and the oppression going. Exactly what happened in Bahrain.

I suspect the push is more from the West, mainly from some hawks in the US. It makes sense to have an Arab force in order to “legitimize” action and make it politically acceptable at home, or so they think. The real action would be by NATO powers, a la Libya 2011. Some of the Arab princes and potentates are no doubt thinking of a post-ISIS phase, when they can ‘clean house’ in Syria and maybe in Lebanon. They have allies over here as well for that endeavor.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter