Jihadi Fellow Travelers of MENA: Salafis, Bolsheviks, and Pirates……….

      


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“Not only does al Qaeda host Ansar al-Sharia, one of the militias responsible for the Benghazi attacks that killed Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. But U.S. intelligence now assesses that leaders from at least three regional al Qaeda affiliates—al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and members of the organization of Al-Mulathameen Brigade loyal to Algerian terrorist, Mokhtar BelMokhtar—have all established havens in the lawless regions of Libya outside the control of the central government. One U.S. military contractor working on counter-terrorism in Africa summed up the situation in Libya today as simply, “Scumbag Woodstock.” The country has attracted that star-studded roster of notorious terrorists and fanatics seeking to wage war on the West. An American counter-terrorism official used a different metaphor to describe the situation. “Libya today plays host to members and associates of several AQ-allied groups, in some ways becoming a jihadist melting pot,”………………”

An excellent description of them: a melting pot. In most Middle East countries, especially Arab ones, tribal and sectarian identities define a person and define political life (in the few places where there is a political life). The order is: Clan, Tribe, Sect, Religion, Country. In that exact order. Sometimes Ruler or King (or Sisi) is inserted before Country, sometimes they add God at the beginning to make it seem kosher and halal

Now the Salafi Jihadis have changed all that. Like the Bolshevik experience of ‘early’ 20th century Europe, and also incidentally like the American experience of the past two centuries. They have created their own melting pots that transcend nationalities (but certainly not sect and probably not tribe: these two have too strong a pull). And they are spreading across the region and all the way south to East Africa and west to the Sahel. The old Afghan war against Soviet occupation and secular government was just a warm-up to what is happening now.

They
have left their stamp: from New York and the Eastern Seaboard to Iraq and Syria and Libya and Yemen and East Africa and West Africa. Little melting pots are being created with Jihadis converging from almost everywhere in the world (except maybe Latin America, maybe). From tribes and clans and nationalities they gather in certain regions, what I call “target areas of opportunity”. Libya and Syria are the latest, but they will not be the last. Look for other states of “failed’ Arab uprisings and failed African states to host more of them. An interesting, murderous, and dangerous melting pot. Almost like the pirates of the Caribbean of another era.

Cheers
mhg

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Saudi Freudian Missiles and Nuclear Inadequacy and King of Jordan: Big Hat but no Cattle?……

      


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“Saudi Arabia became the first Middle East nation to publicly exhibit its nuclear-capable missiles. The long-range, liquid propellant DF-3 ballistic missile (NATO designated CSS-2), purchased from China 27 years ago, was displayed for the first time at a Saudi military parade Tuesday, April 29, in the eastern military town of Hafar Al-Batin, at the junction of the Saudi-Kuwaiti-Iraqi borders. The DF-3 has a range of 2,650 km and carries a payload of 2,150 kg. It is equipped with a single nuclear warhead with a 1-3 MT yield. Watched by a wide array of Saudi defense and military dignitaries, headed by Crown Prince and Deputy Prime Minister Salman bin Abdulaziz, the parade marked the end of the large-scale “Abdullah’s Sword” military war game. Conspicuous on the saluting stand was the Pakistani Chief of Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif alongside eminent visitors, including King Hamad of Bahrain and Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report the event was deliberately loaded with highly-significant messages………….”

I am doubtful about the exact purpose of all this, but why not? Everybody else in the region seems to spend a lot of time and resources doing military exercises and parades. From Iran to North Africa they do it all the time. Even faraway NATO powers do exercises all over the region. Even Al Qaeda terrorist franchises do it, wherever they do these things. So why not the Saudis?

They called it “Abdullah’s Sword” possibly full of Freudian phallic symbolism. Still, isn’t that neighborly and downright sweet to call their war games after the King of Jordan?

Dunno about the “highly-significant messages”, though. Normally countries build their bombs then they focus about delivery (mostly they assume they would never need to deliver or maybe in a few cases they think they can drop them off bombers, a la Enola Gay). The only message I see here is that the Saudis can buy all the missiles they want from around the world, money is no object. But that is no good in a nuclear context: it is like owning a huge store of purchased bullets and lacking a gun to shoot them with. Like owning a wagon but no horses, a big hat but no cattle. You get my drift. 
Cheers

mhg[email protected]

 

Super-Sectarian vs Sectarian: Funny Arab Complains about Imperfect Iraqi Elections……

      


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“And it’s also likely that this year’s results could be ignored by granting the “most politically suitable” party the right to form a government under dirty sectarianism and Iranian orders. Despite all current divisions and upcoming violations, Iraqi elections remain unusual given the standard of regional elections from Iran in the east to Algeria in the west. Political pluralism and the real diversity of the top figures and parties mark the Iraqi elections with a value that is worth appreciating……………”

This one deserves the Joke of the Week Award. He is the current general manager of Saudi semi-official Alarabiya network and former chief editor of Prince Salman’s newspaper (Asharq Alawsat). A propagandist for the absolute tribal super-sectarian Saudi princes complaining about the sectarian Iraqi elections and their imperfect outcome. How they decide the government and how much sectarian influence there is. Sectarianism pervades Iraq but an even more extreme version of it pervades every other Arab country, even those that have only one sect (e.g. Egypt and North Africa). There is a lot of sectarianism in Iraq, unfortunately, but nothing as near as there is in Saudi Arabia and most other Arab countries. The Iraqi elections are imperfect but so have been elections in other countries (some of them downright funny although not humorous). Some might say that having no elections is the ‘optimum’ of political imperfections.

This Saudi complaint is like Kim Jong Un complaining about the imperfections of the U.S. Electoral College system as a democratic institution. It is like having a Mufti or a mullah complain about religious intolerance in some Western countries.

Cheers

mhg

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From Jeddah to Damascus: a Tale of Apostasy and Inquisition and Death, a Promise of Democracy……..

      


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Ahmad Al Jarba is the Saudi-appointed leader of the Syrian Coalition of Something Opposition (the damn name keep changing every few months just as the leaders change, so I have lost track of the latest model). He was in Washington this past week, making what he has been told are the ‘right noises’, like opining that: “we seek to establish a civil democratic heterogeneous state in Syria………..”. Even as his Jihadi militia allies take hostages, chop heads, and kill, all based on identity.

Meanwhile
 there were some gruesome news from Saudi Arabia, the country whose princes appointed Mr. Al Jarba to lead an alternative to the Al Assad regime. Raef Badawi, the young man who started the Saudi Liberal Network had his original sentence increased to 10 years (from 7 years
) in prison plus 1000 lashes (one thousand instead of 600) and a fine of one million shekels riyals. He had been was convicted of “opposing mainstream values”, meaning being a non-conformist, as well as mocking theologian symbols. Ten years and a heavy session with the official torturer for a thousand lashes for being a “non-conformist”. The Wahhabi court also recommended that he be tried for apostasy (changing his religion from Wahhabism) which carries a sentence of death.

Cheers

mhg

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Israeli Nuclear Division: another General sets Netanyahu and U.S. Congress Straight……..

      


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“An insider in Israel’s nuclear program believes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is employing needless fearmongering when it comes to Iran’s atomic aspirations, in order to further his own political aims. Brigadier General (res.) Uzi Eilam, who for a decade headed the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, does not believe that Tehran is even close to having a bomb, if that is even what it really aspires to. “The Iranian nuclear program will only be operational in another 10 years,” declares Eilam, a senior official in Israel’s atomic program. “Even so, I am not sure that Iran wants the bomb.”………… “

“”Has the world learned a lesson from the mistakes of the past? Today we are again faced with clear facts and before a real danger. Iran calls for our destruction, it develops nuclear weapons.” The stated links between the Holocaust and Iran showed how more than six decades later, the mass murder of Jews during World War II is still a central part of Israel’s psyche……………”

So it seems that former senior Israeli professionals who know a few things tend to discount the nuclear fear being pushed by Mr. Netanyahu. These would be retired chiefs of Mossad, AEC, Defense, etc. 

General Eilam, former head of Israel’s AEC, calls Netanyahu’s nuclear stance politicking and hence fear-mongering for political gain. Naturally the Likud and the U.S Congress, all deeply political animals more than anything else, have a different take. Mr. Netanyahu is already established as the most ‘political’ prime minister in Israeli history, which automatically marks him as the most ‘political’leader in the whole Middle East. Most Arab leaders and potentates don’t need to worry much about ‘politics’ anyway, do they?

Interesting political games have been played by players from Washington and Paris and London and Tel Aviv and Tehran. Republicans tried to influence the 2012 U.S. elections on the weight of that fear-mongering; not that congressional Democrats have been any less warmongering. Arab absolute potentates got into the game early on, secretly urging Washington (and Wikileaks?) to launch a war that would alter the ‘conventional’ balance of power, hissing that Washington must ‘cut off the head of the snake‘.
Then there are the mullahs in Iran who are also divided……….

Cheers

mhg[email protected]

 

Field Marshal Bin Technocrat and Others Congratulate King……

      


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                      Bright Field Marshal Khalifa Bin Rommel & Uncle King

“BDF Commander-in-Chief Field Marshal Shaikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa extended on behalf of all BDF personnel heartfelt congratulations to His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa on the election of Lieutenant Colonel Abdul Hakim Al-Shenou as President of the International Military Sports Council (IMSC)…………..”

“His Royal Highness Prime Minister Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa has sent a cable of congratulations to Lieutenant Colonel Abdul Hakim Al-Shenou on his election as President of the International Military Sports Council (CISM)….….”

“President of the General Organisation for Youth and Sport (GOYS) Hesham Mohammed Al-Jowdar has extended congratulations to the Kingdom’s leaders on the successive achievements by the Bahraini sports, which, he said, is the fruitful result of the outstanding conditions provided in the country. He lauded the election of Lieutenant Colonel Abdul Hakim Al-Shenou as President of the International Military Sports Council (MISC)……….”

GOYS? CISM? IMSC? MISC? WTF?

Okay buster, what is the real acronym of this whatever it is? And pray tell why are they congratulating the shaikh king because someone else was appointed to something somewhere which probably means something to him but means nothing to anybody else?
Cheers

mhg

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Cyber Warfare: Sword of Abdullah, Sword of Bo Obama, Sword of Macho Putin?………

      


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“In addition to those conventional threats is the threat of cyberwarfare. Thus, the Saudi military exercises, dubbed the “Sword of Abdullah,” included training on electronic warfare, which is no less dangerous than conventional threats. Cyberattacks could target banks, desalination plants and airports, especially since Saudi Arabia’s cyberinfrastructure is still weak and considered high risk. The cyberattack on Aramco petroleum company in 2012 has shown that anyone can access one of the most important sites of the Saudi economy. According to former US officials, Iran may have been behind the attack, which targeted 30,000 computers and caused significant losses for Aramco. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta described the Shamoon virus, which targeted Aramco, as the most destructive attack so far. Iran’s capabilities in electronic warfare are a challenge for the Gulf states, whose electronic infrastructure is weak. A report released in April by the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel (INSS) showed that Iran has cyberwarfare capabilities that make it one of the most active players on the international scene. Last February, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Iranian students to prepare for cyberwarfare…………….”

I was uncharacteristically flippant when I commented last week that “They called it “Abdullah’s Sword” possibly full of Freudian phallic symbolism. Still, isn’t that neighborly and downright sweet to call their war games after the King of Jordan?”

Since we are in the territory of suggestive macho names, let us do some comparisons.This is equivalent of the Russians calling their war games Putin’s Bare Chest (just keeping it appropriate for family news shows). Or the Americans calling theirs the Paws of Bo Obama (still beats Doo Doo of Bo Obama). Or Egyptians calling theirs suggestively Gun in the Pocket of Sisi.
Some older posts with more links on this:

Church or Hawza? Syrian Opposition Gets Its Own Tame Wahhabi Group………

      


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“Last week, 128 clerics and Islamists formed the Syrian Islamic Council (SIC) in Istanbul with a stated mission to serve as a religious authority for all Sunnis in Syria. Unlike previous Islamic councils in the country, the SIC has combined three otherwise irreconcilable Islamic currents under one canopy: Sufis, Muslim Brotherhood and Sururis. This latter component deserves a closer look. They are a hybrid movement that blends Salafism with Muslim Brotherhood ideology, while not agreeing with either. The movement incorporates Wahhabi teachings, mainly those of the “father of Salafism” Ibn Taymiyya, with the Brotherhood’s teachings, including those of Sayyid Qutb, the “father of modern fundamentalism”. Sheikh Mohammed Surur Zain Al Abedine, a former member of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, founded the movement in the 1970s in Saudi Arabia……………..”

This looks like an attempt to sneak in a Wahhabi “church” hierarchy into the future of Syria without saying so. A halfhearted attempt to establish a “Sunni” equivalent of the highly independent Shi’a Hawza in Najaf (Iraq) but what they seek is a highly politicized one that is subservient to the Al Saud princes. A blend of Islam and Wahhabism to keep the West and many Syrian mollified while reassuring the Al Saud potentates and moneybags. 
It will not work: Syrian Sunnis are a sophisticated bunch and will see through the machinations behind it and many will reject it. Besides, the Salafis are the least trustworthy of all Islamist groups and others will not trust them after they betrayed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and supported the military coup last summer. 

In cases like this, usually the common denominator would be the most extreme, or the worst, depending on one’s point of view. Many Syrians (secular or religious) don’t cotton up to legally chopping heads and cutting off limbs and stoning and crucifixion in public. 
Cute, but no cigar. 

Cheers

mhg

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A Hezbollah View of the West and the Syrian War………

      


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“Head of the Syrian opposition bloc Ahmad al-Jarba failed to radically change the American stance, and Washington still rejects providing the militant groups in Syria with air defense systems, fearing the possibility that the migh fall into terrorists’ hands. Syrian opposition can only expect raising its political representation in Washington and London as well as sending weaponry batches that will not change the battlefield situation, yet aim at reaching a minimum level of the balance which would impose on the Syrian government a political process. American officials also told al-Jarba that the regular armies in the Middle East has become a strategic American necessity in the context of the anti-terror war………….”


Also
sprach Al-Manar network of Hezbollah in Lebanon, almost gleefully. No sources quoted directly or cited, just out of the blue. Maybe, but apparently the French have not heard of this new policy: they just accused the Damascus regime of using chemical weapons, for the tenth or fifteenth time.

But it makes some sense according to an increasingly  prevalent school of analytic fish: pressuring Assad and his inner circle without creating MORE chaos in Syria and Turkey and Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq and points south……….

Cheers

mhg

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Nuclear Inscrutable Iranians, PrinceTurki as a Nuclear Wandering Semite ………

      


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Inscrutable: impossible to understand or interpret. 

synonyms: enigmatic, mysterious, unreadable, inexplicable, unexplainable, incomprehensible, impenetrable, unfathomable, unknowable; opaque, abstruse, arcane, obscure, cryptic……Google

“”We have only one objective in the negotiations and that is reaching a solid, long-standing and durable agreement (over Tehran’s nuclear energy program),” French Foreign Ministry’s Director General for North Africa and the Middle-East Jean-François Girault said in a meeting with Ali Akbar Velayati, the President of Expediency Council’s Center for Strategic Research, in Tehran on Saturday. He further added that his visit to Iran is aimed at exchanging views with officials in Tehran on developments in the Middle East, particularly the situation in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. An informed Iranian source said on Saturday that the next round of negotiations between Iran and the Group 5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) may be held in mid-June……..

The Iran nuclear talks are at a critical stage. It looks like the card dealing stage is over, all the needed cards have been dealt, and the betting is on. The bluffing stage, what I call the Poker Stage, is going on in earnest now. This is the seeing and the raising and the folding stage. Once a nuclear deal is reached between the world powers (actually the Western powers) and Iran, if a deal is reached, several things may change: 

  • Mr. Netanyahu will stop threatening to attack Iran and will change his periodic bi-weekly forecasts of a date for an Iranian nuclear bomb, pushing it back from his usual favorite of six months since 1995. 
  • Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud will have no need to traverse the world anymore, speechifying, threatening that his family will go nuclear if nothing is done about the Iranians. In recent years the Prince has been like a Wandering Semite (but not as pretty as a Tradescantia pallid or a Tradescantia Fluminensis). His highness has been wandering around, publicly threatening a Saudi nuclear option that apparently requires no centrifuges or physicists or chemists or yellow cake from Niger (or from the Boko Haram next door).
  • The foreign minister of Bahrain will stop telling sympathetic cooperative American journalists, mainly Washington Post columnists like David Ignatius, that “his country” (meaning his little family) will not accept a nuclear Iran.
  • The Republican nominee for president in 2016 Mr. Generic Romney will conveniently forget about Obamacare (a.k.a. ACA, a.k.a. Fait Accompli). He will promise that on his first day in office he will unilaterally cancel the nuclear agreement with Iran. He will also promise that he will never meet or talk with Hassan Rouhani until the Iranian leader shows respect by wearing a proper suit and tie “like good Christians have been doing for two thousand years“.
  • The Iranians, well, the Iranians have mastered the art of being what Westerners call inscrutable(it is not as bad nor as good as it sounds at first). That can be good or it can be bad. There was a time when only East Asians, specifically the Chinese and Japanese, were supposed to be inscrutable in Western eyes. Not anymore. And who can blame them: look where the inscrutability got the Chinese and the Japanese………
  • ACME Industries, a subsidiary of Looney Tunes, will go out of business, after losing his best two customers: the Iranian nuclear bomb program and Bibi Netanyahu. Besides, Wile E Coyote has slowed down and is on the verge of retirement.

Cheers

mhg

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Multidisciplinary: Middle East, North Africa, Gulf, GCC, World, Cosmos…..