Petroleum Chat: from Tehran through Baghdad to Riyadh and Caracas…………

 

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The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has announced the discovery of a huge oil field with considerable crude reserves in southern Iran. NIOC’s Director for Exploration Seyyed Mahmoud Mohaddes said Saturday that an exploratory oil well has already been drilled in the area. “The newly-discovered oil field must be considered among the biggest fields ever discovered in Iran,” he said. The Iranian official also added that initial tests have indicated the high quality of the oil in the new field. Mohaddes went on to say that the details about two or three more oil fields will be announced in the near future. A total of 18 heavy and extra heavy oilfields have so far been discovered in Iran, including Ferdowsi oil field in the Persian Gulf, which is one of the country’s biggest heavy oil fields with proven reserves of more than 31 billion barrels. Iran’s total in-place oil reserves have been estimated at more than 560 billion barrels with about 140 billion barrels of extractable oil……….

According to the CIA

(2011) Iranian reserves were pushed back to the 4th largest in the world, behind Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Canada. Last year, Venezuelan reserves jumped with some OPEC estimates putting them ahead of both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iranian and Iraqi ‘proven’ reserves have been hampered over the past 30 years by wars, sanctions, and Western economic blockades. It is possible, nay very likely, that one or both of these countries has more reserves than the current leaders. The Iranians note their “in-place” reserves are 560 billion barrels, but that is only ‘potentially’ recoverable oil. As more explorations and studies are done, as well as more investments in technology and machinery, some of this ‘in-place’ oil becomes extractable.
Both Iran and Iraq suffered from lack of serious exploration and investment in new oil fields over the past three decades, and their reserves can only shoot up noticeably in the next few years. On the other hands there are reports that Saudi production capacity is declining as the country has been producing large amounts as a ‘swing’ producer. But Saudi Arabia has a huge land mass: there may be more oil reserves hidden under the sands, and not necessarily in the Eastern Province.

Of course, the expanded reserves do not help the Iranian people in the short term as the Western powers, under Israeli and ‘princely’ pressure, tighten their squeeze on the economy.
Cheers
mhg



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The Frustrated King and the Tragedy of Baba Amr………….

 

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The King of Saudi Arabia is apparently pissed at the Syrian opposition, especially the Free Syrian Army, for evacuating Baba Amr in Homs. The FSA said its withdrawal was “tactical”. Generalissimo Prince Khaled bin Sultan, the ‘hero’ who was trounced by the Huthi tribal militia in Yemen two years ago, snorted that Tactical’ my ass. That is what Napoleon said after Moscow. That is what Adolf said after Stalingrad.


The King is reportedly upset that the FSA could not hold long enough for his own elite National Guard, now preoccupied in Bahrain, to blitz across some border into Syria and relieve the people of Homs. Burhan Ghalioun of the Syrian national Council announced in Paris (possibly from a corner table at Fouquet, corner of ChampsÉlysées & George V) the formation of a Supreme Military Council to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA) now that it may be too late. He reportedly offered the job to Marshal Tantawi who declined, adding that he has enough trouble with his own Salafis and Muslim Brothers, and has no intention of taking on the Syrian version (or was it the Saudi and Qatari versions?)


Bashar al-Assad, meanwhile, told anyone who would listen that the fall of Baba Amr and Homs proves that he is still loved by the Syrian people (especially those his security forces have not killed, yet). He added: “They were willing to die for me…….. and for the immortal ideals of the Ba’ath Party, WTF that be“.

His wife, smarter than her husband which is the normal case for Arab leaders, reminded him not to cancel the offer on that old dacha of Brezhnev overlooking the Black Sea.


Cheers
mhg



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Freedom of Expression in Morocco………

 

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A Moroccan court on Friday sentenced a man to six months in jail after he raised the Israeli flag over his home to attract the attention of local authorities and protest the disconnection of electricity and water supplies to his home, Moroccan media reported. Mohammed Jadidi, 42, had drawn the Israeli flag on a white cloth and raised it over his home in the Airport neighborhood of the northern predominantly Amazigh (Berber) town of Nador. He reportedly did so after the electricity and water were disconnected to his home, which belonged to the Auxiliary Forces and occupied by his family since the death of his father, who was part of the paramilitary forces. Morocco’s Auxiliary Forces supplement the military, gendarmerie and the police when needed. Jadidi was arrested last Monday and was charged with “sacrilege” through “undermining the national flag.”…………

I believe that raising a flag is like raising any other sign. It is one way of expression. Punishing someone for raising a flag, be it Israeli or Saudi or Iranian or Fredonian, is stifling the freedom of expression. I even believe displaying the photos of any Arab leader or potentate, even photos of Saudi princes or Bashar Assad, is not necessarily an obscene gesture (so long as they are fully dressed, and I mean ‘fully’). It is just an expression: it can be tasteless but should not be illegal.
Cheers
mhg



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Saudi Crown Prince to Emigrate to the Moon, Sinatra’s Joint…………

 

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Fly me to the moon
Let me play among the stars
Let me see what spring is like
On a-Jupiter and Mars
In other words, hold my hand
In other words, baby, kiss me…….
.” Frank Sinatra (Fly Me to the Moon)


Crown Prince Naif, deputy premier and minister of interior, left the Kingdom on a private vacation from the Riyadh Airbase yesterday. A Royal Court statement wished crown prince a safe journey and vacation in a statement carried by the SPA. Those who saw off the crown prince at the airbase included Riyadh Gov. Prince Sattam, Deputy Interior Minister Prince Ahmad, Riyadh Deputy Gov. Prince Muhammad bin Saad, President of the Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities Prince Sultan bin Salman, Assistant Interior Minister for Security Affairs Prince Muhammad bin Naif and several other ministers. The crown prince is accompanied by Prince Abdul Aziz bin Saud bin Naif and Prince Fahd bin Naif…………

I have never read a news brief like this one. Imagine the BBC reporting that Chuck the Prince of Wales and a gaggle of his kin and retainers have left the country for somewhere. Is it possible that Prince Naif is planning to hike the Appalachian Trail? Will he end up in Buenos Aires, Argentina? Will he fly to the moon via a joint in Amsterdam?
Cheers
mhg



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The Agony of Syria: More on Ghalioun, SNC, FSA, KSA, GCC, KGB, XYZ……..

 

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Meanwhile, the head of Syrian National Council (SNC) announced on Thursday at a press conference in Paris, the launch of a military council to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Burhan Ghalioun who said that SNC will be seeking advice from consultants and experts on how to support, organize and oversee FSA, added that the formation of the military council came after consensus among all armed oppositions in Syria. Ghalioun said that the military council was also created after some countries announced that they were ready to arm the FSA. He said it is a step to bring together one Syrian umbrella all armed groups in a bid to reduce foreign influence in the country. ………….  But the Arab League chief, Nabil al-Arabi, said on Thursday that the Arab group has nothing to do with the decision to arm the Syrian opposition………



Mr. Burhan Ghalioun may be somewhat naïve. He has stepped into the middle of an uprising that is being hijacked by absolute tribal Arab potentates and their fundamentalist surrogates. I wonder if he doesn’t realize that he is stepping into a snake pit that might be more venomous than the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his Baath. I wonder if he does not realize that he will be a temporary tool for his domestic and foreign “partners”. That is the way it often goes: all exiles who deal with dogmatic and fundamentalist allies are at a disadvantage. Just look back at France after 1789, Russia after 1917, and Iran after 1979.
If and when (probably more when than if) the Assad regime departs, Mr. Ghalioun will be effectively brushed aside. I hope I am wrong, but I think not. He may temporarily return to Syria as a figurehead ‘leader’ of some initial use to the Salafis and Muslim Brothers, but not for long. The example of Libya and Tunisia (and probably Egypt as well) are quire relevant here. Especially relevant is Tunisia, where a secular opposition figure was brought back to legitimize what is becoming a fundamentalist takeover of a secular revolution.

Cheers
mhg



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Another Iranian Terrorist Plot in Canada, Will UNSC Act?…………

 

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At least three people were killed Sunday when a passenger train derailed near Toronto, Canadian officials said. All three people were employees of Via Rail Canada, Michelle Lamarche, a spokeswoman for the railway, said, calling it a “very sad day for Via.” At least 45 passengers were injured, three severely, according to John Marginson, chief operating officer of Via………….

The UN Security Council will no doubt eagerly meet on this, if the Canadian government requests it. Or if requested by Saudi Arabia the United States. At least three Canadians killed is a serious matter, especially if the there are Westerners of the ‘white’ species. The Security Council also met quickly last week and condemned the attacks on Israelis in India and Thailand, attacks that did not kill anyone. The Security Council somehow forgot to vote to condemn the attacks on Iranian academics who are being killed by bombs on the streets of Tehran. Must have been just a lapse on the part of Ban-Ki Moon, especially now that I understand he is not running for another term.
Cheers
mhg



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The First Arab Revolution Dies: Frenching Saudi Princes in Tunisia………….

 

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Non-religious individuals and groups ignited and then brought into being the Tunisian revolution. Mohamed Elbouazizi, who was not a religious man and whose act of self-immolation was condemned by many religious authorities, is the iconic figure of the Tunisian uprising that started the Arab Spring. But when the dust settled and the first elections were held across Tunisia, Islamists and their allies took the biggest share of the votes – not the likes of Elbouazizi. Although more than 58% of the voters did not endorse Ennahda, leaders of the Islamist party have acted as if they had an absolute public mandate to govern. Using the institution of the Constituency Assembly, the leaders of Ennahda cobbled together a coalition government headed by a former political prisoner and a historical figure of the Islamist movement. Members of Ennahda controlled the main ministries, including foreign affairs and interior. But the first decisions of the government have shown the speed with which religious idealism has given way to practical realism. One such decision is Prime Minister Hammadi Jebali’s first state visit to Saudi Arabia: a good example of decisive, even cynical, realism. Saudi Arabia is a wealthy clan-ruled Arab state in the Gulf region………..”

It looks like the visit of Tunisian leader was a formality, to seal the deal. Tunisia is a resource poorer Arab state, meaning it has no petroleum. It has had some Gulf GCC investments, especially in the tourism industry. Tunisia also has had a certain culture and a cosmopolitan atmosphere that is almost certain to be finished now, damaging the tourist industry. From now on it may be quasi-Salafi chic. This visit is to tell the Saudi princes that Tunisia’s revolution is done, that it is open again for business.
To show that he is serious, Tunisia’s regime is making the correct Saudi-style noises about Syria and it is silent about Bahrain and Yemen (very Saudi-style and Western-style). Any day now I expect the Islamist regime in Tunis to issue a Qaddafi-like fatwa banning French in public places, replacing it with short Salafi Gulf  dishdashas (Saudi thobes) and the Saudi red shmagh ghutra.
(Also encouraging Saudi style stag French-ing among the elites).
Who knows, once Bin Ali is done with his Wahhabi re-education in the Saudi Gulag, once all his secular misconceptions have been cleansed by the royal Salafi muftis, they may rehire him as an adviser in Tunis.

Cheers
mhg



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Another Saudi Killing Fatwa: on Assad and Hezbollah and Israelis and Jews…….

 

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The prominent Saudi cleric Shaikh ‘Aayidh al-Qarni has issued a fatwa that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should be killed. He is quoted that killing Assad now has priority over “killing Israelis” under current circumstances. (Netanyahu may feel comforted by that small favor). He fatwad that obeying Assad is like disobeying the creator (God, Allah, Yahweh). He did not say it in so many words but his silence implied that obeying the absolute al-Saud princes is like obeying the creator (God, Allah, Yahweh) and that obeying the rapacious shaikhs of Bahrain is the next best thing to obeying the creator (God, Allah, Yahweh). …. … Shaikh al-Qarni added that Hassan Nasrallah (of Hezbollah) is a heretic sinner and that his testimony in defense of the Syrian regime is as worthless as the testimony of a Jew. The shaikh is quoted to address Assad “Aren’t you ashamed? Even Jews didn’t do as much to Syrians as you have done”.

Media Wahhabi faux-liberals and Salafis along the Persian-American Gulf are all excited, going orgasmic, over this Wahhabi masterpiece of bigoted fatwa (is there any other kind?).
Cheers
mhg



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From Baghdad to Tehran: Deception, Fear-Mongering, Murky Waters……

 

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Even as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said in a new report Friday that Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment program, American intelligence analysts continue to believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb. Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies. ……..At the center of the debate is the murky question of the ultimate ambitions of the leaders in Tehran………..”

It is possible that the Iranians don’t like Western “experts” poking around in their facilities: after all, when was the last time the French or British allowed some Iranian inspectors to poke around in their facilities?
So there is no evidence, no smoking gun, that the mullahs are building a bomb. No Dick Cheney to swear that Saddam had a beer with Bin Laden as they plotted 9/11. Only a judge (George Daniels) in New York or was it DC who seems to believe that Ali Khamenei plotted 9/11 with Bin Laden over a pitcher of Mojito (Islamic no-mojo style). But it all helps in the West Bank, as the settlements keep expanding and the prospect of two states dims into a distant future.

Odd how Western officials and media, especially in the USA, assaulted the IAEA under Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei when they cast doubts about Bush and Cheney and WMD in Iraq, yet they hang onto every word of it about Iran. So what has changed other than the new man doing their bidding?
Cheers
mhg



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Extreme Poverty in a Democratic People’s Kingdom of Arabia…………..

 

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Woman begging in Riyadh (Source: Deutsche Welle)


In spite of the image of prosperity in which Saudi residents are supposed to live, the past tow decades have seen high inflation in prices by about 400% while the average income increased by only 66%. Ahmad Doud works as a security guards for a company and he used to make $533 a month until King Abdullah ordered that minimum wages be established and that he now makes about $800. His salary is not enough to cover the rent and living expenses of his family and he has taken a second job, although he refuses to say what it is. Saeed is another victim of the poverty in Saudi Arabia whose painful details are lost among the bright image of luxury and prosperity in the kingdom. He secretly makes alcoholic drinks secretly and sells them to make money to cover his family expenses. When asked about a job with the oil and petro-chemical companies that are within tens of miles of his place, he says that he has to be satisfied with inhaling the poisons they emit.
Latest data indicate that the average annual per capita income in Saudi Arabia exceeds $ 20,000, while the average monthly wage of a Saudi citizen in the private sector is about $927….. A short film produced by Badr al-Humood is titled “The Graveyard” and tells about a family of 11 persons that lives in a Riyadh graveyard……… Duetsche Welle Arabic

Now compare this to my earlier posting here about the lifestyles of the Saudi princes.
(The lousy translation from Arabic is my own).

Cheers
mhg



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Multidisciplinary: Middle East, North Africa, Gulf, GCC, World, Cosmos…..