Category Archives: Yemen

Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Caliphate, Yemen

From Arabia Felix to an Arab Prototype……..

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Yemen gets even more complex almost by the day, and who could have thunk it only a few weeks ago? It is now almost a prototype of a failed Arab state, in a similar league with a few others like Somalia and Libya and Syria: 

  • Houthis now control the capital Sanaa and the North: they are strongly aligned against Islah and AQAP (always) .
  • Houthis reportedly aligned with former president Saleh (for now: he still has influence with the army and security forces).
  • Houthis turn against Saleh (maybe soon as they tighten their control of the central state institutions, such as they are).
  • AQAP are against Houthis (always, a Wahhabi-Shi’a conflict, among other issues).
  • Former president General Hadi against Houthis (normal struggle of the provinces against Sanaa, in addition to the influence of Hadi-backers among Saudi and Gulf princes).
  • Houthis against all the above (normal in this situation of regional/tribal/sectarian rivalry: at some point all these groups will have to face each other).
  • AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) against all the above (possibly temporary alliances with some, for example now against the Houthis who always have a priority as enemies).
  • Hirak (the strong South Yemen independence movement) against all of the above (with likely temporary alliances with some of the others). Hirak may have preferred former president General Hadi (a southerner) because he was a weak leader with no political base, hence not much of a threat to anyone’s aspirations.
  • Some smaller remnants of the once-potent pan-Arab and Nasserist and socialist movements. As well as a few other parties, including the party of Saleh. I even saw a Green Party listed somewhere: not sure if it refers to environmental concerns or the chewable ‘qat (gat). No significant influence now.
  • Throw in there a mix of various tribal forces and influences, just to make things more complicated and more interesting.
  • GCC against Houthis and maybe Islah (ex-Qatar which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and hence Islah).
  • Iran against all the above (ex-Houthis and possibly other allies of convenience).
  • USA against AQAP (what else is new? And maybe against the Houthis in the future, but that would be a tough nut to crack).

IS or ISIS, the new kid on the block. It is showing some signs of life as well in Yemen: definitely against all comers. Unless they pledge allegiance to the silly but murderous Caliph WhatIsHisFace.

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al-Qaeda, GCC, Yemen

Battle Lines in Southern Arabia: Bears in the Forest…….

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Here is where the Yemen situation stood yesterday (it is morning here, it could have changed overnight). Things move fast over there:

  • Former president Hadi escaped to Aden a few days ago, as soon as the Houthis allowed him free movement. Apparently he is trying now to establish a shadow authority in the south. He will have to contend with two powerful forces in South Yemen: the Independence Movement (Hirak) and Al Qaeda (AQAP).
  • Not clear how Hirak (movement to regain Southern independence) will deal with Hadi (someone called him Al Zombie, but not me). Not clear how AQAP will deal with him. Both strong in South Yemen. Not to mention his former partners, the Islah Islamists.
  • Gulf GCC ambassadors (at least Saudi and Qatari) will move embassies to Aden now. GCC Secretary General Al Zayani a Bahraini potentate, has already visited Hadi in Aden. The media showed Zayani, suspiciously reeking of Old Spice, smirking at the cameras. 
  • Houthis seem frustrated now by the turn of events, and it shows. Abdel Malik al Houthi (Americanized as AMH) spoke that Hadi was a Saudi-American stooge (perhaps because he was put in place by GCC with US blessing). He added that any ambassador who doesn’t like Sanaa is welcome to move (a no brainer but thanks for the invite). Adding that Saudi money did not help the Yemeni people much (that is true, it did not help the poor much). It would be more helpful if they allow Yemeni labor instead of restricting them.
  • There have been no reports that the American drone campaign against AQAP terrorists has slowed down by recent political developments. No objection has been voiced by Houthis or their rivals to continued drone activity, not yet.
  • Iranian and Hezbollah media are now moving faster in support of the Houthis. As the GCC moves quickly to set up their own acceptable regime in Aden. Would this indicate that more sectarian polarization in Yemen and the Middle East is to be expected? Do bears pee in the forest?
  • Yesterday‘s report from UN that deposed president Saleh had amassed $60 billion over the years seems farfetched (actually the figures are ridiculous). Yemen is too poor to allow anyone an opportunity to steal $ 60 bin. As I tweeted yesterday, even some Saudi princes may find it hard to steal $60 billion. I just don’t believe it. I believe the stealing but not the numbers: all Arab leaders are entitled to steal and they all do so.

So, back to two Yemens? Will the GCC start supporting the old Marxist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Arabia)? Or will we continue with about four Yemens for some time?
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Yemen

Cross-Dressing Arab Leaders: Escape From Sanaa…….

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Reports tell us that Yemen’s former president General AbdRabuh Hadi escaped San’a dressed as a woman. This tale about “dressed as a woman” could be just an Arab urban legend. He escaped on the day his term as president expired, which is when the Houthis released him from house arrest. He went to Aden (South Yemen which is his native land) and promptly declared himself “the president”, although his term had expired and he had resigned. The UN mediator Binomar obligingly started to call him ‘president Hadi”.

This is not the first time an Arab leader reportedly escapes dressed as a woman. There have been others. For example, Nuri Al-Said (Pasha), former PM of Iraq once tried to escape from Baghdad dressed in an Abaya. In his case it was a real long shot: it didn’t work, he was caught and murdered by a mob. There have been past reports from Iraq that some Baathist leaders and generals may have escaped Baghdad in drag after the US invasion in 2003.

Anyway, what will happen now in his native south? The region around Aden is dominated by separatist South Yemenis (Al Hirak, or The Movement), Al Qaeda and other tribal elements. Will Yemen be divided de facto back to North and South now? In that case, Hadi will certainly not be the president of the South, he probably has no political base there. Al Hirak or Al Qaeda or both can eat him alive once they decide he is of no use. And he was VP of Salih in the North only because he was from the South. Besides, giving him the benefit of the doubt (just for today), nice guys don’t win civil wars……..

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, History, Iran, Yemen

Quagmire: Will Saudis Invite Egyptians into Yemen? Will Iranians get Bogged Down?…….

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Yemen 1962: some military officers staged a coup d’etat against the royal family, the Imamate of Hameediddeen. The new Imam Badr sought refuge in Saudi Arabia. A civil war ensued in Yemen, with some Saudi-supported tribes rising against the new regime, and leftist Egypt under Nasser siding with the officers. Saudis and Jordanians supported the tribes. Egypt sent thousands of troops to Yemen to help the Republican regime. It was a quagmire for the Egyptians, a quagmire the Saudis made sure would make Nasser suffer. Nobody really won that long civil war, and in the end they reached a compromise. The Egyptians left Yemen, but they faced a more difficult and tougher enemy in June 1967.

Yemen 2009: The Saudis briefly forgot their own lesson from the 1960s. They intervened in North Yemen against the Houthis. The best Western weapons that money could buy were essentially defeated by lightly-armed Houthis.

Yemen 2015: during 2014 the Houthis swarmed from their northern stronghold and easily defeated the corrupt Yemeni establishment that was set up and supported by the Gulf GCC, with UN blessing. More recently they have sidelined the president Hadi Al Zombie and the parliament and established new institutions. Now the Gulf GCC are making some political noises. There have even been hints at intervention by GCC. That would be interesting: would they send their imported foreign mercenaries into Yemen? How big a defeat would the Houthis inflict on them? Would the Gulf potentates align with the secessionists (former Marxists) in South Yemen? Would they kiss and make up with their AQAP (Al Qaeda) kin against a common enemy?

Recently, Egyptian media and some Egyptian officials have also been making warning noises about Yemen, in conjunction with GCC complaints about the Houthis. Their worry about possible Iranian inroads is understandable. It is unlikely that the Egyptians are thinking of re-entering Yemen. If they do, it is unlikely that the results would be better than in the 1960s. The Iranians themselves would be making Egyptian-like mistakes if they actually get deeper into Yemen. It would be the first Iranian intervention in Yemen in fifteen centuries, and it would be a big mistake. Yemen has always made a nice quagmire for foreigners.

Regardless of media fear-mongering, nobody is going to close the Bab El-Mandab Strait of the Red Sea, anymore than anybody will close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. So just leave Yemen for the Yemenis to fight over: it is much safer and cheaper that way. Everybody else, from Iranians to Saudis to Qataris to Egyptians, stay out.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

About Wild Houthis, AQAP in PDRY, and Forces Loyal to a Zombie……..

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Back to Yemen.
Some Western media have taken to reporting impossible things like: “Houthis are fighting militias loyal to president Abd Rabuh Hadi….”
FYI: they may be fighting the Houthis, but few people, if anyone, in Yemen are loyal to Mr. Hadi. He is not the kind of person that inspires loyalty of anyone outside his own family. Why else would the wily former strongman Ali Abdallah Salih pick him as his vice president? Why else would I occasionally call him Hadi Al Zombie (a lady suggested that last name once)?
Many in the southern provinces of Yemen would fight any authority in Sana’a, because they want to secede back into South Yemen (or maybe the original PDRY). And Al Qaeda (AQAP) Wahhabis are also spread in the south and they would fight the Houthi (heretics) any day. However, I do suspect that the Houthis may have bitten more than they can handle. They may have given their Wahhabi opponents an excuse to foment a sectarian war in Yemen. And they may be overextended by now, far away from their stronghold of S’ada in the north.

So, Abd Rabuh Hadi (Al Zombie) may be a nice guy, he probably is, but forget the nonsense about “forces loyal to Hadi“.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

One Yemen, Two Yemen, Three Yemen, Four……..

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Arabia Once Long Ago Felix. (Speaking of ‘felix’: I wonder if they had the qat or gat in those ancient days):

  • In the late 1960s the British gave up on their colony around Aden and Southern Arabia. They tried to leave behind some form of confederation of mini-states, a South Arabian Confederation which failed.
  • Marxist insurgents took over the whole lot and established the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (Marxist South Yemen). Meanwhile, the “Yemen”, i.e. somnolent North Yemen, remained unchanged: tribal and underdeveloped under the Republican regime as it was under the Hameededdeen Imamate.
  • Early 1990 or thereabouts, (Marxist) South Yemen was torn by factional disputes among its leaders, the former comrades in arms were divided and at each others’ throats. The Soviet Union was moving away from Middle East entanglements.
  • South Yemen leaders got the urge to merge with North Yemen, by then ruled by military dictator Ali Abdallah Salih. Possibly they thought they could outsmart the wily colonel and run the whole thing.
  • The colonel was wilier than the Marxists and he managed to sideline them, as colonels often do.
  • The union was a backward step in some ways for South Yemen. Especially on social issues and in women’s rights, where they had to conform to strict repressive North Yemeni standards.
  • A long story. By 1994 the southerners knew for sure that they had a raw deal, got the short end of the stick. They rebelled to regain their independence. They failed.
  • As Yemen fell apart to tribal and Al-Qaeda divisions, the Southerners saw another opportunity to regain independence. Meanwhile the GCC Gulf potentates and the UN managed to get Salih to resign and his deputy General Hadi to replace him. They claim Hadi was elected by an astounding but Arabic 99.8% of the “vote” (more than Sisi’s paltry 98% in Egypt or Assad’s embarrassing 88% in Syria). A weak leader, Hadi shared power with others, including the Islah (essentially the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood). Corruption continued unabated, and the Houthis were emboldened to march from their stronghold and take Sana’a. That is where it stands now.
  • Except that Al-Qaeda (AQAP) Wahhabis are entrenched now, mostly in formerly Marxist South Yemen. The Houthis and Islah (Muslim Brotherhood) and other Salafis in the North and secessionists and Al-Qaeda (AQAP) in the South. Throw in a couple of other tribal ‘issues’, just to further complicate matters and make things more interesting.

They are all fighting each other now. Can the USA solve that? Certainly not, not even a combination of John McCain and Lindsey Graham can do that. The American goal is probably more realistic: to keep AQAP off balance.

Which means no other outsider can solve Yemen either.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Lebanon, Yemen

Lebanonization of Yemen, Yemenization of Lebanon…….

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There was a time when the term ‘Lebanonization’ indicated the worst of the worst, the absolute bottom for a country. An indication of a country’s descent into political and sectarian and confessional divisions and lawlessness and eventual civil war. The Lebanese had their ‘Lebanization’ during 1975-1990. They are still as divided as ever, if not more, but they have mostly managed to refrain from a shooting internal war. So far.

It is like the past Mafia wars: when all the Dons were of almost equal power, they started fighting in order to prevent anyone of them from gaining supremacy. Once one of them was supreme and war was hopeless, there was no incentive for an internal war among the Mafia families. A form of enforced stability prevailed. Some (not necessarily me) might say that the latter is the case now in Lebanon.

In recent years I have even read some warnings about the possible Lebanonization of Yemen. Which makes no sense now, would be laughable if it were not so tragic, but it probably made sense then to somebody. Now we know that was an optimistic warning. Given the multiple little wars in Yemen, sectarian and tribal and political and regional, it is Yemenization that can be used to refer to how far a nation can descent. Even Lebanon can face Yemenization if the political powers are not careful and if the Syrian war is allowed to spill over the border.

Now, about NATO-liberated Libya and about Syria which has not yet been liberated by the democratic freedom-loving Saudis and Emiratis and Qataris and………

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, GCC, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Finally some Sensible Advice on Yemen for Obama………

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“The so-called Houthis (a name the group doesn’t use) who have seized power in Yemen’s capital have Iranian friends but the relationship is unclear and we should not jump to facile assumptions of a close Iranian alliance. We need understanding of what the Houthis seek, whether we share interests and whether our financial and military assistance can help leverage political stabilization; the kind of judgments that can only be made on the ground in an evolving situation. The Saudis have strong interests in Yemen and strong influence with some tribes. We should try to cooperate with the Saudis because of their strong influences, our broad relationship with them and the depth of their interest. But we cannot rely on their or anyone else’s analysis…………..”

The Saudis, especially those along the Red Sea, are historically and tribally and in some cases genetically tied to Yemen. But their rulers have always been proprietary about Yemen: in the 1930s they stole a big chunk of northern Yemen and in the 1960s they armed and funded tribes that fought the Republican regime and the Egyptian army.

Yet they have also always kept Yemen at arms length in terms of their own collective arrangements. When the Saudi King Abdullah, in a moment of passing madness in 2011, invited faraway Morocco and humorless Jordan to apply for GCC membership, he ignored Yemen. Yemen received some GCC aid over the years, but apparently not enough to lift its economy, and local divisions and corruption took care of the rest.

The GCC princes and potentates basically appointed General Hadi as president of Yemen, although they had to swallow and accept the local corrupt Muslim Brotherhood (Islah) as his partners. I know, he won with an astounding 99.8% of the vote, barely below the 100% of the vote a king or a tribal ruler in the GCC normally wins his non-elections (at birth).
The Houthis may have bitten more than they can chew or swallow with their new move in Sana’a. Trying to rule ALL of Yemen, even with willing strong allies, is as tough as trying to rule ALL of Afghanistan (without American military support). They apparently know that: they seem eager to compromise and share power, as indicated by their proposed 500 member council.

The Saudis and the other GCC potentates have their own interests in Yemen. In some cases they are colored by fears and reasonable worries of Iranian influence at their southern flank, in other cases they are colored by deep Wahhabi sectarian prejudices. One thing is certain: they are never concerned about democracy and freedom, unless it is to oppose them. Some of the potentates might be delusional enough to feel that they can now make a deal with their wayward Al-Qaeda kin (AQAP) to salvage influence in Yemen after cutting aid.

The article has some good sensible advice for President Obama. As for the positions of some members of the U.S. Congress and the Senate, they can be influenced by lack of information, or by moneyed lobbyist pressure, or both.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Al Aqeda, Arabian Peninsula, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

American Friends, American Enemies: from Syrians to Al Qaeda to Houthis……….

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Strange state of American foreign policy these days. There are cases and situations where allies and foes can be exchanged:

  • The current leader of America’s allegedly closest ally (Israel) and the U.S. president intensely dislike each other. It is obvious they have little respect for each other. Mr. Obama knows that Benyamin Netanyahu bears him ill will, besides being a habitual liar who can’t be trusted (imagine, a politician lying to another politician!). Most Western European leaders also believe the same. Mr. Netanyahu clearly believes that the U.S. president is a weakling who is not willing to launch an attack on Iran on Israel’s behalf. In fairness nor did George W Bush, but Netanyahu would never dare openly defy Bush.
  • Mr. Obama believes that a nuclear deal with Iran is better than yet another American war waged against yet another Muslim country. Especially given the doubtful outcome, the cost-benefit of that war. America’s closest allies outside Europe, the Israelis, and the ruling potentates and princes of some Persian Gulf states, strongly object to almost any feasible deal.
  • The Republican leader of the U.S. Congress has invited Mr. Netanyahu to deliver a speech to a joint session of Congress, just after President Obama’s State of the Union Speech. Basically they are inviting  a foreign leader to respond to the U.S. president. Inside the U.S Congress! Unheard of anywhere in the world.
  • Mr. Obama also now has problems with some of his Arab allies regarding Syria. He and his advisers and most the American foreign policy establishment have revised their position on the Syrian civil war. Most have realized in the past year or so the real danger in Syria now is not the survival of Bashar Al Assad, but what will come afterwards. They were hoodwinked by Saudi, Emirati, and Qatari potentates into betting on the Free Syrian Army, which also did a good job of selling itself to some gullible and jingoistic American senators like McCain and Graham and the not-so-dearly-departed Lieberman. The Free Syrian Army soon morphed, most of it, into Al Nusra Front and ISIS and other groups of kidnappers and cutthroats. 
  • The Americans and the Syrians and Hezbollah and the Iranians are now fighting the same enemy, the Jihadis. For now. Eventually, the Americans would like for Al Assad and Iran and Hezbollah to go away (I am not sure where they can go since they live in the region). Eventually the Syrians and Iranians and Hezbollah would like for the Americans to go away (also not feasible any time soon).
  • To complicate matters, there pops up Yemen, hardly felix now. In Yemen, the United States is trying hard to stem and roll back the regional Al Qaeda branch (AQAP) mainly by bombing its Saudi and Yemeni leadership. So are the new power wielders in Yemen, the Houthis who now control the capital. Yet the Gulf states, especially the Saudi princes and the UAE potentates, don’t approve of the Houthis. Besides their faith which is an offshoot of Shi’ism, they are also suspected of being too close to the Iranian regime. You can’t get any more heretical than that from a Wahhabi point of view. The Houthis do sport some silly Iranian-like anti-American slogans on posters in Sanaa, but it is not clear (to me) if their heart is in it. Nor where they stand ideologically regarding an Iran-style theocracy.
  • So the Houthis fight Al Qaeda. The Houthis are reported to be supplied by Iran, although they don’t seem to carry advanced weapons, unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Americans fight Al Qaeda. Both Houthis and Al Qaeda fight the previous dominant tribal oligarchs of Yemen. Al Qaeda also as usual kidnaps and/or kills any Westerners (or Shi’as) they can get their hands on. Then there are the separatists of South Yemen who would like to regain the independence they lost in 1990. Complicated? Just hang on, it is going to get even more complicated in the coming weeks.
  • Then there is Lebanon, a place the Israeli military seem unable to stay away from. Once I likened it to the moth unable to resist the light and the fire, and cleverly if I may say so. We shall leave Lebanon, and Iraq, and North Africa for another day.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

[email protected]

Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

Yemen War: the Wild Bunch vs. the Hopelessly Corrupt vs. Al Qaeda……..

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“Yemen’s powerful Shiite Houthi rebels shelled the residence of the country’s embattled president Tuesday and simultaneously swept into the presidential palace in the capital, Sanaa, as a top military commander warned that a full-fledged “coup” was underway. President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was inside the residence as it came under “heavy shelling” for half an hour but he was unharmed and protected by guards, officials said. In New York, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting over the chaos in Sanaa. The shelling was a dramatic development that put the U.S.-backed Hadi into a precarious position and represented the starkest challenge to his authority…………”

As of now it is not clear what is exactly happening in Sana’a, except that there is some fighting around the presidential palace today. It has been a relatively wild country outside Sana’a and Aden and a few other larger towns. Regime officials claim today that there is a Houthi coup, the Houthis claim they were attacked first by the ‘other side’.

The Houthis have controlled the capital for several months, although Al-Qaeda and some other tribal groups have tried to challenge their hold and slow their recent expansion south. They are depicted by most Arab and Western media as a wild tribal group from the wild north (of North Yemen). Some are also beginning to stress their new reported ties to the Iranian regime, a fact that worries the Saudis next door since they fought and lost a little war with the Houthis a few years ago.
The regime of Generalissimo Abd Rabu (Worshiper of His God) Hadi, which is just a continuation of every other Yemeni regime since 1962, is as corrupt as any in Yemeni history. Probably more because he has been even more beholden to the Al Ahmar tribal military oligarchs. The regime has completely failed to stem Al-Qaeda to the south in recent years. In fairness, nor has the American drone bombing campaign. The Houthis, who also mostly fight Al-Qaeda, started a surge that was too much for the regime and their Salafi foes, given that much of the military refused to fight them.

The wild looting of some leaders palaces also exposed the degree of corruption in that very poor country. The UN Security Council is reported meeting today in emergency on Yemen. Not sure what they can do. Maybe they will slap new sanctions on everybody. It will not mean much to anybody inside Yemen.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

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