Category Archives: US Foreign Policy

Iran, Israel, Middle East Nuclear, nuclear Iran, Pakistan, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

An Iranian Mystery, a Western Dilemma…….

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“And we keep forgetting the inconvenient fact that, even if the regime changed, the nuclear program — which is popular as an expression of Iranian nationalism and power — will continue. The leaders of the Green movement strongly support that program and have repeatedly criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for making too-generous offers to the West. (All Iranian officials repeat constantly that they would never develop nuclear weapons. And in a recent interview with Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he had never “seen a shred of evidence that Iran has been weaponizing, in terms of building nuclear-weapons facilities and using enriched materials.”…………“

This is another dilemma that the West will continue to face from Iran, something I and a few others have written about. What they don’t seem to understand is that no matter who is in power in Tehran, be it the mullahs, the Mujahideen Khalq, the Greens, the Communists, or the American Tea Party, they all want to keep the nuclear program going. They all claim they have no intention of developing nuclear weapons, but they know that an independent nuclear program, of the sort the Israelis and the Pakistanis have, is a matter of national pride. Regime change in Iran is desirable by the West and very likely by many Iranians, but that does not mean an acceptance of the loss of independent decision-making.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Middle East Nuclear, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Is Condi Rice as Smart as Henry Kissinger? Iraq, Iran, and Indochina……………

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“Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday that it’s time for the United States to confront Iran, and that it should never take the military option off the table, in an ABC interview with Christiane Amanpour. “I think it’s time to confront the Iranian regime because It’s the poster child for state sponsorship of terrorism, it’s trying to get a nuclear weapon, it’s repressed its own people. The regime has absolutely no legitimacy left. We should be doing everything we can to bring it down and never take military force off the table,” she said.
In addition to keeping the military option open, Rice pointed to “even tougher sanctions” as a means of confronting the Islamic Republic…………Rice also commented on plans for the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq this year, noting that, “This is one of the downsides of having our forces out of Iraq, because we can confront the Iranians in Iraq.” ………….”

I am beginning to think that Condi Rice is almost as smart as Henry Kissinger, almost. Kissinger had a brilliant solution for the United States to stop losing the Vietnam War: escalate into Cambodia and Laos. Brilliant move: within four years the Communists were in power in South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.
So Rice wanted the Obama administration to keep forces in Iraq to “confront Iran”. I assume she doesn’t mean having a few thousand American boys and girls sitting targets in a hostile environment. Maybe she would also agree to leave Palo Alto and go to Iraq to advice the troops she wants to remain in harm’s way. maybe Messrs Romney and Gingrich and Perry and some of the airwaves gasbag warriors will volunteer go go with her.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, Middle East Nuclear, nuclear Iran, US Foreign Policy

New IAEA Iran Nuclear Report and another “Slam Dunk”………

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“This week, the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to release its latest report on Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. If the leaks are to be believed, that report will accuse Iran of constructing a steel tank at the Parchin military complex for testing explosives associated with atomic weapons design. The allegation is hardly new. Since 2004, there have been suspicions of work at Parchin related to weapons design and in May this year the agency listed a series of research projects it suggested could not make sense unless related to weapons research. If the report is significant, it is because with each new IAEA report on Iran comes a familiar diplomatic ritual of threatened new sanctions from the US and its allies and reports of threatened military strikes from Israel. If there is a difference this time, it is in the strong impression, after years of veiled threats from Israel, that it will act alone if necessary to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, that the country’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and his closest allies in a cabinet split on the issue would like to launch a pre-emptive military strike, a view opposed by other senior figures in Israel’s security establishment…………..”

So the IAEA chief flies to Washington, media report, but not to Tehran, and soon after leaks start springing about Iran moving closer to a nuclear weapon, or is it just a nuclear capability. Maybe it is so, but it is so reminiscent of the preparations for the 2003 Iraq war and all the talk and leaks and “intelligence” about WMD, isn’t it? That one even tricked me, not that I needed much convincing of the need to get rid of Saddam Hussein and his vile Ba’ath Party rule.
So the Iranians, it is now leaked, may have constructed a steel tank at the Parchin military complex for testing explosives “associated” with atomic weapons design. And what are the sources of all this? Reports say the sources are “Western” intelligence. So some Western intelligence services supply the IAEA with new “intelligence” about Iran’s nuclear intentions, the IAEA dutifully includes it in its report, then the same Western governments scream that the IAEA has provided proof.
It is possible that the unnamed “Western” intelligence, be it the CIA, Mossad, or the Germans are correct this time. It is also possible that they are not. Remember: according to “Western” intelligence, the Iranians were supposed to have developed a nuclear bomb some six or seven years ago. The same folks who brought us “slam dunk” (no not the late Chick Hearn of the L.A. Lakers) and the Iraq invasion in 2003. These guys would never win an NBA title with the kind of “slam dunking” they are capable of.

Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Iran, Israel, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Obama Administration and Israel Playing “Good Cop, Bad Cop”? The Wahhabi Route to Iran…………..

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“U.S. officials are concerned that Israel will not warn them before taking military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, a senior U.S. military official said Friday. The official, who asked to remain anonymous, told the CNN network that although in the past, U.S. officials thought they would receive warning from Israel if it did take military action against Iran, “now that doesn’t seem so ironclad.” The U.S. is “absolutely” concerned that Israel is preparing an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and this concern is increasing, CNN reported the official as saying. The U.S. has increased its “watchfulness” of Iran and Israel…….…..”

If anybody truly believes that the US administration worries about Israel “attacking” Iran without them knowing, then I still have that perfect three legged and half-blind camel for sale. Clearly the Obama-Clinton administration and the Likud coalition are playing a game of good cop and bad cop, in the style of the Keystone cops.
Israel has no way of getting into Iranian airspace without American knowledge. The United States owns the airspace over the entire Middle East, with the possible exception of Iran and Syria. Israel also has no way of getting into Iranian airspace without the cooperation of some other Middle East regimes. Iraq and Turkey and Syria will not allow attacking jets to cross their territory. That leaves only the potentates on my Gulf (and Jordan). The controlled Saudi media have been softening their people, and in some other Persian-American Gulf GCC states, by beating the sectarian drum. It is possible now, after this long and fierce media campaign by the al-Saud that a “not insubstantial” segment of Saudi society will not object to cooperation with the Israelis in an attack across the Persian-American Gulf. That segment includes the crucial Wahhabi palace ulema, the tamed Salafi royal clerics like Shaikh Al Al Shaikh, who will no doubt issue the appropriate fatwa.
Then again, all this can be just part of psychological war against the mullahs. It might just stay that way, hopefully.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, GCC, Human Right, Iran, Lebanon, NATO, Salafi, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy

The West and the Syrian Taliban: Advise from a Saudi Prince of Thieves?…………

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“This summer a senior Saudi official told John Hannah, Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, that from the outset of the upheaval in Syria, the king has believed that regime change would be highly beneficial to Saudi interests: “The king knows that other than the collapse of the Islamic Republic itself, nothing would weaken Iran more than losing Syria.” This is today’s “great game” – losing Syria. And this is how it is played: set up a hurried transitional council as sole representative of the Syrian people, irrespective of whether it has any real legs inside Syria; feed in armed insurgents from neighbouring states; impose sanctions that will hurt the middle classes; mount a media campaign to denigrate any Syrian efforts at reform; try to instigate divisions within the army and the elite; and ultimately President Assad will fall – so its initiators insist……….. The radical armed elements being used in Syria as auxiliaries to depose Assad run counter to the prospect of any outcome emerging within the western paradigm. These groups may well have a bloody and very undemocratic agenda of their own………The origins of the “lose Assad” operation preceded the Arab awakening: they reach back to Israel’s failure in its 2006 war to seriously damage Hezbollah, and the post-conflict US assessment that it was Syria that represented Hezbollah’s achilles heel – as the vulnerable conduit linking Hezbollah to Iran. US officials speculated as to what might be done to block this vital corridor, but it was Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia………….”

Bandar Bin Sultan, Saudi Prince of thieves, is advising the West on how to topple the Ba’athist dictatorship in Damascus and almost certainly install a worse regime of Salafis and other fundamentalists. That may be fine with the al-Saud rulers in Riyadh: the Salafis are their fifth columnists, bought and paid for, from the Persian-American Gulf states to Egypt and North Africa. The West will almost certainly miss the Assad dictatorship, once the Islamists rule in Damascus. Imagine the Taliban wedged between Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel. It is especially the latter border that should give the West second thoughts.
(I trust there is no need for my regular readers to have me repeat the well-known story that BAE Systems had given bribes commissions of about GBP1 billion (US$ 2 billion) to Saudi Prince Bandar Bin Sultan for his role in a huge British-Saudi arms deal. Tony (Yo) Blair killed the British Serious Frauds Office (SFO) investigation of it because it threatened a new British deal to sell weapons systems and pay the princes yet more bribes commissions. That came to be known as the al-Yamama scandal, and it set Tony Blair on his path to multimillion contracts with Arab and other oil potentates after he left office).

Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Iraq after SOFA: Next Year in Baghdad? Camp Romney, Camp Gingrich, about that Border Hike……..

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“But for both sides the politics proved too tricky. Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, has managed to cling onto his post but heads a parliament so angrily divided that it rarely makes a decision—and his mandate is by no means strong enough to force one through on his own. The movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr, a populist Shia cleric, which is powerful both in government and on the street, remained vehemently opposed to letting any American troops stay. When it became clear that Iraqi politicians, mindful of the residual Iraqi anger over American abuses at Abu Ghraib prison and elsewhere, could not publicly approve of letting American soldiers have immunity from arrest, as any American administration must insist, the talks broke down and plans for a rapid and complete withdrawal began in earnest. In the United States, where Iraq has long been absent from the front page of newspapers, there were a few howls of protest at the news of the withdrawal………..”

Republicans are mostly pissed about the end of SOFA and withdrawal from Iraq. Candidates who never fired a shot in anger on a battle field are screaming against the “loss” of Eyeraq. You’d think Mesopotamia as there Jerusalem. Maybe the Republican National Convention next year the battle cry of this GOP diaspora will be “Next Year in Baghdad”, or is it Fallujah or Basrah or Abu Ghreib.
Now I shall have to insist on all Republican Tea Party candidates going to Iraq. Not just the “viable” candidates like, well, I have to think more deeply on this “viability” thing. The American people are fickle and are prone to  the “next morning: what the hell did I vote for” syndrome.
By all means go to Iraq, talk to al-Maliki, talk to al-Sadr, text al-Sistani about staying. Then go for a group hike all he way to he Iranian border. And should you stray a bit and inadvertently cross over into the domain of the mullahs, the American people will understand. There is always 2016 or 2020…………

Cheers
mhg


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Culture, Economics, France, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

French Right and American Right: a Never Requited Love…………….

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“Le Pen, who inherited leadership of the party from her father, has worked to shed the Front’s image as a racist fringe movement and move it more toward the mainstream, even as the French government itself tacks toward the right on immigration. All the same, she seems to be slipping in the polls after several weeks where it looked like she had a good shot at making the second round. It will be interesting to see what other U.S. politicians follow Paul’s lead and take the chance to meet with her. Even if GOP candidates might like her stances of immigration and Islam, they probably won’t see eye-to-eye on economics……….”

American right-wingers get excited about some French rightists, thinking they are of the same ideology of “no regulation, cutting taxes, eliminating the government, giving corporations a free reign”.
Yet the most right-wing French politicians often are to the left of the most liberal Democrat in the United States. Even Nicolas Sarkozy, once touted as a right-winger, is to the left of most Democrats in the US Senate in matters of economic policy, social programs, and especially health care. They are usually anti-immigrant and hostile to their Muslim compatriots, but they have no intention of ever gutting the social programs that the French people have come to enjoy, like retirement and an extensive public health program. In France, as in all of Europe and all industrial countries, health care is considered a human right, as it should be in the US as well. That is why American right-wingers usually keep their distance from their “leftist” French namesakes. That is why this courting will never get anywhere: besides it is unpatriotic and unseemly for a right-wing American Teabagger to be seen hobnobbing with someone with a French accent. It is just a ‘so un-American’ thing to do, possibly even anti-American in some quarters.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Iran, Israel, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

A Strange Iranian General to Match any Likudnik………….

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“Chairman of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Hassan Firouzabadi warned on Wednesday that any possible attack on Syria will put an end to the existence of the United States and the Zionist regime.
“If the Westerners break up the resistance front against the occupying Zionist regime, all Muslims will rise up, and in that case there will remain no U.S. and no Zionist regime,” he said.
They are talking about the use of Libya’s model for Syria to frighten and weaken the position of the Syrian government, but in fact they are not capable of implementing such a plan for Syria, he said.
On the developments in the Middle East and North Africa, he said that the Zionist regime is the real loser of the Islamic awaking in the region.…..”

About his threat of “no USA and no Zionist regime“: somehow I don’t buy it. Besides, it is very un-General-like and rude. Even Patton would not use such terms. Patton used worse, but not in public, and he was a realist, not a panderer.
I got news for this strange Iranian general. This Arab ‘awakening’ did not start as an Islamic awakening. Many Islamists went AWOL, stayed home, or sided with the regimes initially. They joined toward the end, and I suspect some of them, nay many of them, especially the Salafis, are on the side of the Arab Counterrevolution led by Saudi Arabia and others. Yet he is right in the sense that Islamists will gain much, perhaps more than the secular young people who started the uprisings. Unfortunately.
Cheers
mhg


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Israel, Palestine, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

Ban Ki-Moon Panders on UNESCO: Moony’s Futile Gesture………..

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“Palestinian efforts to join U.N. agencies beyond its cultural arm are “not beneficial for anybody” and could lead to cuts in funding sure to affect millions of people, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon warned Thursday. In an Associated Press interview, the U.N. chief reiterated the world body’s support for a viable, independent Palestinian state — but lamented the Palestinian Authority’s efforts to join U.N. affiliates before the U.N. itself………”

Moony seems to be in a hurry here, effectively taking sides. Effectively telling the Palestinians not to bother applying beyond the UNESCO. It is odd that a UN secretary general takes sides so quickly. Luckily Moony is just a top international bureaucrat and his opinion is unlikely to sway anyone except the already-swayed.
Unlike other previous UN secretaries general, I have no doubt that Moony will easily win a renewed term. Especially now.
Cheers
mhg


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Turkey, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

The American Right, NATO, and World Government…………

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The American right wing has always expressed suspicions, nay abhorrence, at what was often called “world government”. They were always unilateralists, when not isolationists. Odd how they are eagerly adopting multilateral action, by NATO and not the UN. Yet NATO is now a form of world government, ruling the whole world, with the exception of China and India and Iran and some pockets in Latin America. NATO can almost unilaterally start wars and interfere in other countries. Yet the American right wing now wants more of this kind of “international” government (Ron Paul excepted). Selective wold government. Could it have something to do with the fact that NATO is a rich man’s “Golf club”? Of course there is the small matter of Turkish membership, but the Turks got in when they were needed during the early Cold War. They are expendable now that the old cold war has ended. Just as they became expendable to Europe once the Soviet Union fell.
Cheers
mhg


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