Category Archives: US Foreign Policy

Ali Khamenei, Iran, Israel, Middle East Nuclear, Saudi Arabia, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Khamenei on Nuclear Sinning in Iran and other Places……….

 

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

“As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don’t believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb. A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003. The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so………. An IAEA report in November cited “serious concerns” about “possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program,” but did not reach hard conclusions. Another IAEA report is imminent. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted Wednesday that Tehran had no intention of producing nuclear weapons. In remarks broadcast on state television, he said that “owning a nuclear weapon is a big sin.”……….”

Ayatollah Khamenei just called nuclear countries sinners. Which confirms what I have been writing here, and what others have written: that they may acquire the technology but they will not actually produce a nuclear bomb. The mullahs don’t like sinning, I think. That is not to say there are no sections of the diverse Iranian regime that would like to sin, to develop nuclear weapons. In the end it is Ali Khamenei who is supposed to have the final say, provided that he knows exactly what is going on. I mean he can be calling nuclear weapons a sin, but some branch of his government may be tempted to try a bit of sinning (the flesh is weak after all). All this is contrary to all the whining by Israeli officials and Saudi princes, egging the United States toward another futile war in our region.
(The Israelis don’t really want a war, they just want to divert attention away from the West bank and their expanding settlements. The Saudi princes and their Salafi proxies, on the other hand, would love a war fought by Americans, or any other ‘heathens’, on their behalf).
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Syria and Yemen and the Lions: the 100% Solution, the 99.8% Solution……..

 

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

No doubt President Assad will not last in Syria, not if the alleged 6,000 killings are true. His father is reported to have killed many more in Hama, but we are not sure how many. Those were days of no internet (not outside the U.S defense establishment) and no cell phones with cameras. The opposition was not as media-savvy and opportunistic as it is now. Besides, most governments, including all Arab governments that now condemn Bashar, colluded with the father in covering up the alleged massacre. The father survived, nay thrived, after Hama because the rest of the world allowed him to.
This is unlikely to happen with Bashar. Not only there are television videos, no doubt some of them are fake or modified for international audiences, but there are other factors. Under Hafiz al-Assad (Arabic for the Lion Keeper) the political atmosphere in the region was quite different. Under Bashar al-Assad (Arabic for Bearer of Good News to the Lion) too many regional and international powers want a piece of Syria. The Iranians and Russians want to keep Assad in power because he is their ally. The Saudis and Gulf potentates want Assad replaced with someone who would be their ally against Iran. The West wants someone in Syria who would kick the Iranians out and switch their support in Lebanon from Hezbollah to the Hariri and the Falange militias. The West, and the Israelis, dream of 1982, when the Lebanese right-wing made an impossible short-lived deal with Israel and Reagan stupidly sent in the Marines, thinking Lebanon was like Grenada. They believed the right-wing Arab propaganda that the Lebanese people welcomed them (most did not, even more would not now).

So, what to do with Syria? The Yemen solution where the “new” president reverted to the true Arab election style by winning 99.8%? Or the Tunisian solution which is more democratic (so far)? Or the Egyptian solution that is not clear yet?
Syria will have to be different if a civil war is to be averted: it will probably have to be a consensus solution that gives everyone something to take home. Nobody loses too much: not sure about the Syrian people. The Iranians and Russians want the regime to remain; they don’t want to lose out. The Saudis want the regime to go and they prefer a new fundamentalist regime that is close to them: the princes can dangle the promise of a lot of money even their own people face tough conditions at home.
No doubt the next regime will be some sort of fundamentalist Islamic concoction that reflects the “current” mood of many, if not all, Syrians. It will be a Sunni regime, which will probably be hostile to both Iran and Israel, at least on paper. Until the Saudi (and maybe the Qatari) oligarchs present them with the political bill for “liberation”.
Well: you live and you learn.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Electoral Democratic Joke: Yemen’s 99.8% Landslide, a F–king Big Deal………………

   

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

      
The election results were typically Arab: the vice president of Ali Saleh, the man supported by the Saudis and the potentates of the GCC and the democratic Western powers won. He won with a modest 99.8% of the vote. He was the only candidate. Even Ahmadinejad won less than 60% in that disputed 2009 election in Iran (but Ahmadcinejad was not appointed by the Saudis and the West). It was like electing the King of Saudi Arabia or the ruler of Bahrain or Abu Dhabi. Now that is, to quote Joe Biden, a fucking big deal!

Here is what I posted about it before the vote results:
“Yemenis, including Tawakkol Karman, winner of the 2011 Nobel peace prize, go to the polls. Tuesday’s election is the fruit of a US-backed deal that eased President Ali Abdullah Saleh from power in exchange for immunity from prosecution over the alleged killing of hundreds of protesters. Saleh’s deputy, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, is the only candidate………..”

Tawakkol Karman: “This is a day of holy joy!”
This is a Nobel Laureate speaking.

Is the lady out of her blinking fundamentalist mind? Had she been chewing qat? A day of ”holy joy”? So they were forced by the neighboring potentates to vote for one man, maintaining the power of the old regime.

The GCC, with Western support, have saddled the Yemeni people with a continuation of the dictatorship. Of course the potentates of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oligarchies would not want free choice for Yemen. So they have an election with one candidate! One candidate! Did anyone expect the Saudi princes to deliver democracy and freedom to the Yemeni people? When they refuse any mention of it to their own people? When you can vanish if you so much as mention freedom in Riyadh? And they call that travesty freedom? No wonder the Huthis and the Southerners are ready to resume their battle for whatever the hell it is they are seeking.
The Saudis, led by Field Marshal Khaled bin Sultan bin Technocrat bin Rommel were defeated militarily in Yemen. Their most expensively armed military was defeated by a ragtag tribal group armed with WWI and WWII weapons. Now they are trying to win their counter-revolution by diplomacy. It won’t work.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

9/11, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Iraq, NATO, Syria, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Asinine Views of Evil: What the West Thinks, What Muslims Think………

    

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

“Of course, it’s difficult to ascertain the views of Iranians. State censorship is tight, and foreign journalists are rarely allowed into the country. Nevertheless, it is possible to make contact with some Iranians. And when you speak with them, you learn something quite surprising: Even if they oppose Ahmadinejad, their radical president, most of these Iranians still view their country as the victim in the current circumstances. They also view the West as an enemy and fail to consider or acknowledge that there are massive differences between hawks in Israel and doves within the Obama administration. “After 9/11, George W. Bush systematically portrayed Iran as the bogeyman. That’s happening again now. I have seen no indication that we are building a nuclear bomb,” says one professor in Tehran…………..”

The problem with many in the West is that they often try to think for others, often assuming anyone who is against a repressive regime automatically agrees with the West on all issues.
Take Iran and the nuclear issue: most Iranians support their country’s nuclear program even as many of them are opposed to the regime. Many of the Syrian “rebels” are probably more militant than the Assad regime about the occupied Golan Heights (John McCain and Joe Lieberman have somehow missed that one). Many, but not all, of these Syrians certainly are Islamic fundamentalists who have no use for Western values, although they’d love Western weapons and Western troops to help against their dictator.
After 9/11, George W Bush and the neoconservatives could not exactly put the blame where it belonged, on the one country that provided the ideology, the fatwas, the volunteers, and the money for the terrorist attacks. The Bushes and the Cheneys could not offend their pals the petroleum princes in Riyadh. They focused on softer targets like Iraq and Iran. Hence the nonsense about “Axis of Evil” (so far the most asinine catch phrase of the first decade of the new century) that excluded the Salafi swamp. The West blockaded Iran; the West liberated Iraq soon after it ‘liberated’ Afghanistan, before the West went on to liberate Libya last year and is thinking of liberating Syria later this year.
Many idiotic neoconservatives, other sanctimonious Republicans, and a few Democrats seeking reelection are now pondering ways to liberate Iran.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Iran, Israel, Muslims, NATO, Persian-American Gulf, Racism, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Kipling on My Gulf: Native Rights, White Man Rights, Muslim Rights, NATO Rights…………

   

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF    

 “Take up the White Man’s burden
Send forth the best ye breed—
Go send your sons to exile
To serve your captives’ need
To wait in heavy harness
On fluttered folk and wild—
Your new-caught, sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child
Take up the White Man’s burden
In patience to abide
To veil the threat of terror……..” Rudyard Kipling (White Man’s Burden)

When Israelis threaten Iran with a preemptive attack, unprovoked, the West takes it for granted: oh well, boys will be boys, as long as they are white boys. Western media like CNN immediately spin it as self-defense.

When Iran “threatens” to defend herself, the West acts shocked, calling for more sanctions, choking off the economy, leaving “all options” on the table until after the 2012 elections (after the American November elections not after the Iranian March elections; definitely not after the Saudi elections for that would be just after hell freezes over which would be no time for a war).

Western (and Saudi media) continue to call the Iranian presence in our region a “threat”. Iranian warships in their own neighborhood in the Gulf are called a danger, while “foreign” Western warships from ten thousand kilometers away, practically clogging the Gulf, are not a “danger”. Now, where else can the Iranian navy go? After all it is the “Persian” Gulf according to the UN resolutions (okay, Persian-American Gulf now). It is jointly “owned” solely by Iranians and Arabs and by nobody else. Yet Israeli and Western leaders and assorted political climbers continue to threaten to bomb Iran for just ‘being there’, or for looking sideways at Netantyahu.
Such threats are considered a right, an entitlement of the “white” man, something God-given. Even Ban-Ki Moon (Mooney) agrees with that, although not in so many words. Moony does want to be re-elected for another term and he knows the history of Butrus Ghali (Egypt) and Kofi Annan (Ghana).
Even the Wahhabi Salafis agree on that last point, the one of going to war against Iran for looking sideways at Benjamin Netabyahu. They also agree with Rick Santorum and the other GOP clowns about the necessity of another war in the Gulf. As long as they don’t have to fight it (with three or four wives, one has no time for war). They pray for it to some Salafi God of their own, as their royal princes pray for rain, even as they curse the Gods of their “heathen” benefactors whom they want to wage war “on their behalf”.

Who would have thunk life would get so complicated in our region in just a few years.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Iran, Israel, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

The Game of Preemption: Israelis Tough as Nail, Iranians Soft as Pussycats, Americans Lost……….

     

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

“Growing tensions over Iran’s disputed nuclear program have provoked speculation that Israel may be contemplating a military strike against nuclear facilities, which Iran says are for peaceful purposes, but which the West suspects are inching toward the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Without mentioning Israel directly, Mohammad Hejazi, the deputy armed forces head, said Tuesday, “Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions.” Divisions in Iran’s leadership make it difficult to interpret the government’s intentions, but the statement showed a new level of aggressiveness……………”


The Iranians are just trying to make a point, show the absurdity of this Western and Israeli sense of being exclusively ‘entitled’ to bomb a country as a preemption. Everybody else seems to be getting into the “preemption” game these days, so why not the Iranians? Nobody has a “right” that others don’t have to threaten “preemption”.
Compared to what Israelis and American Republicans candidates mouth everyday, this Iranian statement is soft, squishy soft, pussycat stuff. McCain and Lieberman (Joe not Avigdor) would call it appeasement; Mitt Romney would declare a preemptive war before he has even lost the election; Rick Santorum would invoke a mean-spirited God of his own imagination, Newt Gingrich would remind everyone of his Plan B to go to the moon with Callista.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Corruption, Gulf states, Israel, Palestine, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

The Tony Blair Israeli-Palestinian Barbershop Quartet……….

 

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

      

“Yet another deadline passed late last month in the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process,” this time over the initial exchange of proposals on border and security issues. Palestinian negotiators were (and remain) under pressure on a number of fronts. The Quartet still holds to a resumption of talks under the current guise and a recent visit from Ban Ki-Moon called for “a gesture of goodwill by both sides” in order to create a positive atmosphere for continuing negotiations……….”

This looks like just a way to keep Tony Blair doing something other than making a lot of money serving various Middle East potentates and Central Asian petroleum dictators. He is right here: it is time for Tony should to form a new quartet, a barbershop Quartet of Persian Gulf potentates and Central Asian dictators. (I don’t think Tony is on the payroll of J P Morgan anymore; that was during ‘the deal’ with Qaddafi). Then he, and they, can sing their hearts out away from the media. Then we won’t have to see his deceptive sanctimonious face and his asinine statements and platitudes about world affairs.
Moony at the UN should declare the Quarter dead and done with because in fact it is deader than a doornail.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Iran, Media, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Mother Teresa of Calcutta as America’s Greatest Enemy……..

 

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

      

“Americans most frequently identify Iran as being the United States’ greatest enemy, a Gallup poll released on Monday indicated. According to the data, Iran topped the list of the biggest enemy to the U.S. with 32 percent of respondents, up from the 25 percent who selected Iran in a 2011 survey. China is a relatively close second with 24 percent, and North Korea a distant third at 10 percent. Gallup’s World Affairs poll was conducted February 2-5, using a random sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia…………..”

It is possible some people in the United States would have the same strong hostile feelings against Mother Teresa of Calcutta if she had been the target of such sustained vilification by the media and by politicians for several years. (I am not excluding Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich from these feelings, not yet).
In the past few weeks, mainstream media and kookes alike have made it seem like the West has some kind of entitlement, some right, to wage an unprovoked war on Iran. No wonder the “average” American puts Iran at the top of the list of “mortal” enemies: he has been fed weeks of propaganda and warmongering.
As I said, they would put Mother Teresa at the top of the enemy list had she been the target of such media assault (I exclude most Catholics but not all from that, maybe). I suspect that something like 50% would support waging a war of choice on Mother Teresa after such a sustained media blitz.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Apartheid, Arab Counterrevoltion, Human Right, Persian-American Gulf, Salafi, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy

Saudi Regime: Free Speech as a form of Terrorism, a New Fifth Column…..

 

    Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter    BFF   

      


Rasid website reports that the Saudi regime has accused an outspoken Shi’a cleric of terrorism for speaking against injustice and repression. Shaikh Hassan al-Saffar had openly questioned how a regime that ‘condemns killing protesters in other countries allows the killing of protesters at home’. Saudi regime spokesmen have again accused the protesters and civil rights advocates in Qatif (Eastern Province) of being pawns of foreign powers. (Charging protesters and opponents of the Wahhabi regime of being Iranian pawns is a standard refrain of some Gulf despots and of the pro-Saudi Wahhabi faux-liberal media and regime academics along the Gulf). The Saudi regime media have often spoken of a “fifth column”, referring to Shi’as who are demanding their rights as citizens on their own ancestral land of the Eastern Province.
The Saudis, in fact, have their own strong “fifth column” all along the Persian-American Gulf: it consists of the Salafis who are loyal to the al-Saud clan and their Wahhabi shaikhs more than to any other entity. Most of the Saudi oil is extracted from the Shi’a area but they are the last to benefit from it.

I wonder if the Saudis can convince the Obama administration to add free speech to the list of acts of terrorism. That new definition of terrorism would only include free speech in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, almost exclusively.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Revolutions, Human Right, Syria, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Bashar al-Assad on Ending the Violence (in Syria)………..

   Rattlesnake Ridge   Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter   

 
         BFF   

“Russia’s foreign minister said after Damascus talks on Tuesday that President Bashar al-Assad was “fully committed” to ending the bloodshed in Syria even as regime tanks pounded the central city of Homs for a fourth straight day. Sergei Lavrov said he had had a “very useful” meeting with Assad and that Moscow was eager to work towards a solution based on an Arab League plan that it had previously criticised. “We (Russia) confirmed our readiness to act for a rapid solution to the crisis based on the plan put forward by the Arab League,” said Lavrov, adding that Syria was also ready see an enlarged Arab League mission in the country, Russian news agencies said……”

Of course Assad is committed to ending the violence. The problem is that he seems to want to end it his own way: by killing off the opposition. That would end the violence, but if the opposition refuses to be killed off, then it goes on. Qaddafi also tried to end the violence by finishing off the opposition, but NATO would not allow him. The al-Khalifa regime in Bahrain is doing the same, but on a smaller scale mainly because the people are protesting peacefully. The Western powers liberated Libya from its dictator, just as earlier they had liberated Iraq from its dictator. Syrian opposition and impotent Arab potentates want the West to intervene again militarily and change the regime in Damascus. They were check-mated by the Russian and Chinese vetoes at the UN in their efforts to do a repeat of Libya in Syria.
Will they still do it in Syria in this election year? It will certainly be a tougher nut to crack given that the regime is organized and well-armed (they can do some damage to NATO warplanes and tanks). Besides, Assad still has some regional and international allies (Iran, Russia, China, Lebanon, a few others).
Will they do it? Ich weiss nicht.
Cheers
mhg


[email protected]