Category Archives: US Foreign Policy

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Hezbollah, Iran, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

The Usual Suspects: Hezbollah and Hamas in Yemen and Casablanca………….

    

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Captain Renault: “Major Strasser’s been shot. Round up the usual suspects.“  Casablanca

“Washington believes Iran is working with Shi’ite Muslim rebels in northern Yemen and secessionists in the country’s south to expand its influence at the expense of Yemen’s Gulf neighbours, the U.S. envoy to Sanaa was quoted as saying on Sunday. The pan-Arab daily al-Hayat cited Gerald Feierstein, in an interview in London, as accusing Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas of helping their backers in Shi’ite Iran at the expense of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a bloc in which Sunni-led oil giant Saudi Arabia’s influence is dominant. “The Iranians want to build influence in Yemen… both internally and more broadly in the region by establishing a foothold in the Arabian Peninsula,” the paper quoted Feierstein as saying in remarks published in Arabic. “It’s something that’s naturally regarded as a security threat to Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC states.” Feierstein told Reuters in an interview last month that there were signs of greater Iranian activity in Yemen, There is evidence that Hezbollah and Hamas support this Iranian effort ……….”

Also sprach the US ambassador quoted by Saudi semi-official daily al-Hayat (owned by Prince Khalid Bin Sultan).
Yemen is much more complex than the picture this ambassador paints. Al-Qaeda has become a major disruptive force across Yemen now, including the once secular south. That is what 20 years of union with the tribal north Yemen has done to the rest of the country. That and nearly twenty years of Saudi Wahhabi influence.
The fact is that the GCC (Saudi) plan that the West supported in Yemen does not meet the aspirations of most Yemeni people (excluding Tawakkol Karman). The killings by regime forces continue, except that Arab and Western media are not covering them anymore. The people want a regime change, but they had a reactionary status-quo GCC plan rammed down their throats. Clearly they are not accepting it.
There is some Iranian involvement and influence in parts of Yemen, just as there are Saudi influences in parts of Yemen. And there is American influence, especially in the skies. But it is not clear how Hamas and Hezbollah got together in Yemen. Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood Sunni, Hezbollah is Shi’a. Maybe the ambassador has some evidence he can’t share with the public. It is also quite likely he is just mouthing the same old manta the Yemen regime has been repeating for the past two or three years. The “foreign interference” mantra most Arab regimes repeat when they are in trouble in places like Bahrain and Syria and before them in Egypt and Libya.
Of course, this is not to say there is no Iranian interference, there probably is some of that (the theory of political vacuum and all that). But Hamas and Hezbollah? That sounds like a 2012 American presidential campaign slogan, produced by AIPAC.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Iraq, Syria, US Foreign Policy

American-Iranian Tug of War over Iraqi Skies and Syria………

    

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“The first major test of U.S. post-war influence in Iraq is now raging over efforts to stop Iran from funneling arms to Syria through Iraqi airspace, but the Iraqis are either unwilling or unable to assure the United States the shipments will cease. Last week, the Washington Times reported that the Iraqi government was refusing to halt Iranian cargo flights to Syria that fly over Iraqi airspace, despite the fact that U.S. officials believe the flights carry massive and illegal shipments of arms to aid President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which is murdering civilians by the thousands in its struggle to keep power. Publicly, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has stated the shipments contain “humanitarian goods, not weapons.” However, U.S. officials aren’t buying that excuse, and have been repeatedly pressing Maliki behind the scenes to make Iran halt the arms shipments, with limited if any success……….”

No doubt the Iranians are sending some weapons and equipment to Syria, among other things they send to help the Assad regime. Yet whatever Iran sends by air pales in comparison to what the Syrians get by sea from the Russian fleet based on the Syrian coast. Which always puzzled me: the Russians can and do provide much better weapons to Syria from safe sea routes (Black Sea to Mediterranean). And they can ship real heavy equipment and armor by sea. Whatever the Iranians provide must be small change, unless the Russians have decided to stop or restrict their Syrian arms shipments, and there is no so indication of that yet. So why all the fuss about smaller Iranian shipments? Could it be political rather than of any military value? Yes, it could, it could.
The Iraqis would love to get their hands on sophisticated warplanes to replace their old Baath air force that was destroyed, ironically, by the United States. This is a bargaining chip the Obama administration can use, may be using. On the other hands, there are other suppliers willing to supply the Iraqis with warplanes, but these are not as good as American brands. These are the variables. Oh, and there is an Arab ‘summit’ scheduled for Baghdad soon which the Iraqis would like to succeed and some neighborly Arabs would love to fail.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, GCC, Gulf states, Kuwait, Muslims, Persian Gulf, UAE, US Foreign Policy

Dhahi Khalfan in Kuwait: Warns Gulf GCC of a Muslim Brotherhood Plot….

    

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Dhahi Khalfan, the Dubai Chief of Police, is the most outspoken official in the United Arab Emirates. The most outspoken official in all the Gulf states. He rose to public prominence after the Israeli Mossad killed a Palestinian Hamas official in a Dubai hotel. Mossad botched the killing by reportedly using more than 35 operatives just to kill one man, all with false passports, and it was all caught on hotel cameras.
Since then Colonel Khalfan has been venturing into the realm of regional politics more than law enforcement.
These days
 Dhahi Khalfan has his sights on the  fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood. He started with a dispute with Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Egyptian cleric who is close to the Qatari rulers. Apparently Qaradawi had criticized the UAE rulers and Khalfan could not help responding, noting that Qaradawi is now banned from the UAE and that he ought to issue an order for his arrest.
Yesterday
 he publicly opined in an interview with the Kuwaiti daily al-Qabas that the Muslim Brothers are plotting to take over the Gulf GCC states. He warned that they will take over power in Kuwait in 2013 then move on to the other Gulf states. (Kuwait’s current parliament, elected last month, is dominated by Islamic extremists allied with reactionary tribal elements. Some argue, credibly, that it is the worst parliament in the country’s history. The deputy speaker is a Salafi multimillionaire, wtf that may mean in the grand scheme of things). Khalfan opined that by 2016 the Muslim Brotherhood will dominate all the Gulf GCC states. He claims reports of the plot have been leaked by Western intelligence agencies.
This
 is quite a departure from the usual Saudi and Salafi (and local Gulf Muslim Brotherhood) claim that the Gulf GCC states face some wild Iranian or a Shi’a plot, or a combination plot from both.
I have no comment on this today. Maybe later. definitely later.
Cheers
mhg


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Espionage, Hezbollah, Iran, Lebanon, Terrorism, U.S. Congress, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

New Iranian Terror Plot Uncovered by, You Guessed it, NYPD………..

    

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“A senior New York police official disclosed that at least 13 suspects with ties to the Iranian government had been questioned by authorities in the last seven years after conducting surveillance of possible attack sites. Mitchell Silber, the New York Police Department’s director of intelligence analysis, said the city’s large Jewish population and international significance as a terror target made it ripe for a strike by either Iran or Hizbollah, the Lebanon-based militant group it sometimes uses as a proxy. Testifying before the House of Representative’s Homeland Security Committee, he said the suspects included six people on a sightseeing cruise who were taking photographs and film of well-known New York landmarks such as the Brooklyn Bridge in 2005. And in September 2010, federal air marshals detained four people taking pictures and films at a heliport in the city. During questioning, all 13 people admitted that they were associated with the Iranian government, but they were ultimately released without charge…………”

I wonder if it is still legal to take pictures of the Empire State building. That used to be my favorite landmark in New York when I was a teenage student back east, it still is, along with the Statue of Liberty. I used to take photos of it, then climb on top and take more amazing photos.
I don’t know about this. They haven’t been able to catch any Iranian terrorists yet (just a few weapon and technology smugglers). Even with Hezbollah agents, the best they could find was some hapless Lebanese trying to smuggle bullets for pistols to Lebanon. Bullets for pistols! I guess he didn’t realize that Hezbollah has missiles and anti-aircraft guns and drones and is waiting for the first Iranian nuclear bomb.
I am near despair that they ever will catch a genuine Iranian or Hezbollah terrorist in the US: unless they can revive that old Cheney idea of a meeting in Prague between Mohammed Atta and Iranian intelligence. Woops, that was Iraqi intelligence, allegedly. Then there is Jack the Texas used-car dealer who conspired with Ali Khamenei and the Quds Force and Hezbollah and the Mexican Cartel and FARC to blow to smithereens an Arab yes-man ambassador in Washington. I am beginning to suspect that there
probably are no such thing as “Iranian terrorists” in the United States,
none in New Jersey-NYC, none in Westwood. Not even any hiding under the bed of the Saudi ambassador or Representative
Peter King or, heaven forbid, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl).


More seriously: it pays to be vigilant these days. If there is a new war, all bets are off. Terrorism may become a reality instead of just an opportunity for some ambitious or overeager cop or agent or East Coast DA.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Is It Payback Time for Yukiya Amano Cheney? the IAEA Tehran Deception…………..

    

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“The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the nuclear watchdog at the heart of the growing Iranian crisis, has been accused by several former senior officials of pro-western bias, over-reliance on unverified intelligence and of sidelining sceptics. In November, it published an unprecedented volume of intelligence pointing towards past Iranian work on developing a nuclear weapon, deeming it credible. However, some former IAEA officials are saying that the agency has gone too far. Robert Kelley, a former US weapons scientists who ran the IAEA action team on Iraq at the time of the US-led invasion, said there were worrying parallels between the west’s mistakes over Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction then and the IAEA’s assessment of Iran now. “Amano is falling into the Cheney trap….”……… The acrid taste left by the election was heightened by the US diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks which revealed Amano’s assiduous courting of American support. In an October 2009 cable, the US charge d’affaires, Geoffrey Pyatt, wrote: “Amano reminded [the] ambassador on several occasions that he would need to make concessions to the G-77 [the developing countries group], which correctly required him to be fair-minded and independent, but that he was solidly in the US court on every key strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program.”………..”


To me it has always sounded like déjà vu all over again (as the baseball man said). Like the buildup to the Iraq war (that I supported). Domestic American right-wing pressure, Israeli pressure, Arab princes applying pressure, shadowy exiles making wild claims, terrible intelligence (George Tenet’s “slam dunk), even more terrible analysis and interpretation of the terrible intelligence. It is so similar, almost a breathtaking repeat of the exact same steps. Then the years of demonization and Hitler-izing the prospective enemy. It is amazing how most people are not recalling that earlier deception of 2002-2003.
Cheers
mhg


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Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, Religion, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Meshugenner American Evangelicals and the Rapture of Israel………

    

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“The prominence of the Iran issue in the current Republican primary race also incenses Klein, who is quick to elaborate that the force behind the rhetoric is not just a “small group of Jewish neoconservatives.” “There is this whole bunch of meshugenner Evangelicals who love their little Jewish ‘sisters and brothers,’ who they believe are going to incinerate themselves once the Rapture comes … The Evangelicals are a major force in American politics and the Republican politicians listen to what they are is saying. When you have a politician like [Newt] Gingrich or [Rick] Santorum say that Iran’s government is completely irrational, that it is a death cult – using words like ‘satanic cult that will use the bomb as soon as it gets it’ – they are following a Rapturian line, No. 1, and No. 2, there are people in the Israeli government – and I know this for a fact – who are selling that to them.” ……”

Also sprach Joe Klein on Iranian cultists, American cultists, and their Likud manipulators…..
Cheers
mhg


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CIA, Espionage, Iran, Israel, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Iranian Nuclear issue, American Nuclear Issue, Conventional Strategic Issue…..

    

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“Intercepted communications of Iranian officials discussing their nuclear program raised concerns that the country’s leaders had decided to revive efforts to develop a weapon, intelligence officials said. That, along with a stream of other information, set off an intensive review and delayed publication of the 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, a classified report reflecting the consensus of analysts from 16 agencies. But in the end, they deemed the intercepts and other evidence unpersuasive, and they stuck to their longstanding conclusion……… As a result, officials caution that they cannot offer certainty. “I’d say that I have about 75 percent confidence in the assessment that they haven’t restarted the program,”…………….”

““There is not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts,” the former official said. The Times reported last month that U.S. intelligence analysts continue to believe there was no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb. The latest assessments by U.S. spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program …….….”


Which deserves a resounding: WTF?
This seems to confirm my long-held suspicions: the noise about Iran has little to do with a nuclear program. It has a lot to do with broader Middle East balance of power. It has to do with pressure from the Israeli/American right-wing (and perhaps the Saudi princes). It is part of a struggle for influence in the Middle East.
The Israelis want Iranian influence in Lebanon and Syria reduced, but without the risk of an Islamist Salafi resurgence (in Syria) that would actively reopen the Golan file. Syria is a focus target, with the potential of a complete break with Iran and an alliance with the Saudis and their  right-wing March 14 proxies in Lebanon. Lebanon can be partly affected, but it would be unrealistic for it to have a complete break with Iran and join the Saudi camp (the demographics are against it).

The Saudi princes want to consolidate their hegemony over the Gulf GCC states and to dominate the Arabs of the eastern Mediterranean. A tough, nay impossible, job. In the process, they want Iranian infrastructure and military power destroyed by the Americans and Israelis. That would open the door for their money to move into the vacuum in Syria and perhaps regain influence in Lebanon. The Saudi princes want to play the same role they tried in the 1980s, when they armed and financed Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran and urged the West to do the same. We all know what Saddam did in 1990 right after the West pulled his nuts out of the fire.

Everybody in America is making ‘appropriate’ noises about the “nuclear” issue; even Obama is being pushed to it by both his right-wing opponents and by Democrats in the U.S. Congress. Especially so with the Republican candidates vying to outdo each other in Likud-orchestrated crazy rhetoric, rhetoric that seems to embarrass some past and current Israeli officials (not Netanyahu and Lieberman).
Cheers
mhg


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AIPAC, Iran, Pakistan, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Iran and Pakistan and the Vanished Arabists of America………..

    

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“Pakistani officials confirmed Wednesday that Industrial and Commercial Bank of China had withdrawn from plans to head a consortium that would finance the $1.6-billion Pakistani portion of the cross-border pipeline, apparently over concern that the bank could be excluded from the U.S. economy.
The move suggests that even Chinese companies, which have staunchly resisted U.S. and European efforts to punish Iran for its nuclear program, are beginning to bend to the sanctions on Tehran. China’s unwillingness to fully cooperate had been one of the greatest challenges to the international effort to put economic pressure on Iran. China’s decision is a setback for the Pakistani government, which fears that dire energy shortages could lead to civil unrest as well as economic strain. Pakistani officials said they would press ahead with the project, which would deliver more than 750 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from Iran’s South Pars field. They said they would find replacement financing.………….”

The United States administration has been trying to derail this gas pipeline project for some time now. Pressure on the Pakistanis and offers of a more expensive pipeline did not work, and the Chinese for a while seemed impervious to pressure as well. Blocking this pipeline will harm Pakistan much more than Iran, especially beyond the short term. That country is facing a deepening energy crisis and the vast Iranian gas fields are the closest and most efficient source for it. Iran has the largest reserves of natural gas in the world outside Russia, and it has no shortage of clients, especially beyond the short term.
The Obama administration’s State Department is now firmly under the control of the Likud-niks; which means that administration foreign policy itself is under Likudnik control. The old Arabists are long gone from the corridors of power, replaced by Likud-niks. The term “Arabist” itself is now probably a suspect nearly derogatory term at Foggy Bottom and in Washington; in the U.S. Congress “Arabists” can get stoned these days.
Cheers
mhg


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CIA, Drones, GCC, Iran, Israel, U.S. Congress, US Foreign Policy

New International Band: “Barack Obama and the Drones”………….

 

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“Deep inside these burning buildings
Voices die to be heard
Years we spent teaching a lesson
We ourselves had never learned
And if strength is borne from heartbreak
Many mountains I could move
And if walls could speak I’d pray
That they would tell me what to do
The drones will slave away, they’re working overtime,
They serve a faceless queen, they never question why.….” Drones (by Back Against)

“Given these views, experts fear that Holder’s argument in support of the war on terror could also serve as a rationale for possible future military strikes ordered by Obama. Claus Kress, a Cologne-based professor of international law and an internationally renowned expert on the US’s stance on the laws of war, believes that it is “not inconceivable” that, in justifying the drone war, Obama’s top lawyers may have already set their sights on an altogether different target: Iran. Legally speaking, a military strike against the mullahs’ nuclear program — which Obama believes is conceivable should it become verifiably clear that there is no other way to stop Iran from building a bomb — would only be possible with the permission of the United Nations Security Council. But the Russians and the Chinese would probably veto any such consent. As a result, the United States would have to invoke its “inherent” right of self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. Still, this requires that Iran has essentially raised its weapon against Israel or the United States………”

As the old song says: “birds do it, bees do it….”
Everybody is doing it these days, or soon will be. China is building drones. Israel is using drones. Iran is building and using drones. Before you know it, we’ll have most nations building their own drones. Then we’d have various sects in each country building their own drones: we’d have Shi’a drones, Salafi drones, Ikhwan drones, and Sufi drones. Then there will be Coptic drones and Maronite drones and Orthodox drones. Then we’d have tribal drones around the Gulf: Shemmar drones (more than one type), Ajmi drones, Mutairi drones, Comanche drones, Arapaho drones, etc. Then there will be neighborhood drones…….
In the United States, if things go along the current trajectory, there may be Republican drones and Democrat drones. In fact there already are some primitive prototypes: they call them senators and representatives.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Iran, Syria, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy, Weapons deals, Yemen

Iran in Yemen and Syria: Quds Force vs. Qat Force, Plot in DC with Mexicans and Islamic Heritage Revival Society……

 

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““Iran is really trying to play a big role in Yemen now,” the Yemeni official said from his office in Sana, the country’s capital. American officials say the Iranian aid to Yemen — a relatively small but steady stream of automatic rifles, grenade launchers, bomb-making material and several million dollars in cash — mirrors the kind of weapons and training the Quds Force is providing the embattled government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. It also reflects a broader campaign that includes what American officials say was a failed plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States in October, and what appears to have been a coordinated effort by Iran to attack Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia earlier this year. Iran has denied any role in the attacks. “They’re fighting basically a shadow war every day,” Gen. James N. Mattis, the head of the military’s Central Command, told a Senate hearing last week. “They are working earnestly to keep Assad in power,” he said, explaining that in addition to arms and scores of Quds Force trainers and Iranian intelligence agents, Iran is providing the Syrian security services with electronic eavesdropping equipment “to try and pick up where the opposition networks are.”………..”

Fine and dandy, the mullahs are probably supplying some arms to a Yemeni faction. Yet I don’t buy the bit about supplying weapons to Syria. Not because they would not be happy to keep Bashar al-Assad in power; no doubt the Iranians are doing their best to keep the Baath regime in control. There is no need for Iranian arms. The Russians have a naval base in Syria, and the Black Sea is nearby, and the Russians make much better weapons than the Iranians, and the Russians have always supplied Syria and still do. So why would Bashar need mediocre Iranian weapons when he has access to better Russian ones? Ditto for the spying and communications equipment. (Unless there is a money/payment angle). The New York Times needs to make a better case for this.
As for the rehash of the so-called plot to blow Adle al-Jubair the Saudi ambassador to smithereens in an overpriced but mediocre Georgetown restaurant: I thought we had gone over that one and refuted the allegation. I recall even refuting any involvement of the Mexican drug cartels, drunk Texan used-car dealers named Jack, Colombian FARC rebels, Hezbollah, Society of Islamic Heritage Revival, the Nabati Poets Diwaniya, and Mitt Romney. This just makes no sense. The Saudi ambassador al-Jubair is not an important person, he makes no decisions or policies except when to have lunch or get a haircut. It is all decided by the princes.
As for the ‘Qat‘, it just popped up…….
Cheers
mhg


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