Category Archives: US Foreign Policy

Arab Revolutions, GCC, Sectarian, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Obama Joins Middle East Sectarian Jihad: Muslim Brotherhood Elated, Salafis Hopeful, Shi’as Doubtful………..

      

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“HOOAH! Obama moves to deliver another country to Muslim Brotherhood. USA! USA!……..” Drudge Report, tweeting an understatement

“Syria’s president and his Shi’ite allies were denounced by leading Sunni Arab voices on Friday, including Egypt’s ruling Muslim Brotherhood, which had reached out across Islam’s sectarian divide but has now called for jihad. The Brotherhood accused Shi’ites of being at the root of sectarian conflicts throughout history and threw its weight behind holy war – just months after a high-profile rapprochement with Iran, which backs Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. “Throughout history, Sunnis have never been involved in starting a sectarian war,” spokesman Ahmed Aref said, adding that Hezbollah provoked the new sectarian conflict in Syria………………..”

So Mr. Obama has been maneuvered into the Syrian sectarian war by some funny doubtful evidence produced by the French (oh so ethical in these matters) and the British (marginally better) in cooperation with Syrian “activists”, as well as some unrelenting badgering by Sen. John McCain and the taunting of Bill Clinton (who called him a “Wuss”) only two days earlier.
Now Syria is not Libya. This is not a domestic uprising anymore, it is a regional sectarian war instigated by some of the tribal absolute rulers of the Persian Gulf, mainly Saudis and Qataris, and the Salafist movement. None of the above three believe in freedom or democracy anymore than Mr. Al Assad does. The Syrian battle was joined, early on, by an influx of Jihadis as well as training and weapons from the West, Russia, Lebanon, and Iran. It has also been joined by supplies and some human assets from all the above places. So the Obama administration has now more firmly joined one side in this regional sectarian civil war. Nay, it has, by its intervention may have expanded the Syrian war from a regional proxy war in the Middle East to a worldwide sectarian war.

The Al Saud and their palace clerics and the Salafis and the Wahhabi liberals of the Gulf and Lebanon will be pleased. I imagine the tribal Salafis are praying that Allah would further guide the infidel heathens of the West toward supplying heavy weapons as well as a passel of no-fly zones, all for the glory of Allah and the Gulf potentates (not necessarily in that order).
In any case, the sectarian battle is joined and the result does not bode well for Syria or its neighboring countries.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Syria, US Foreign Policy, WMD

How Clinton and Willful Europeans Got Obama into the Syrian War: the Lame Fool “Wuss” that Roared…….

      

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“What happens when you don’t intervene in Syria? Bill Clinton said that Obama risks looking like a ‘wuss,’ a ‘fool,’ and ‘lame’ by sitting on the sidelines………. “

Wednesday night Bill Clinton was reported in an interview to have opined that if Mr. Obama did not intervene in Syria, he would look like a “Wuss”, a “Fool”, and “Lame”. No doubt Bubba was taunting Obama, possibly having heard from Hillary and his own leftovers in the National Security team (female and possibly male). Possibly having heard from his pals and big contributors among Persian Gulf potentates.
Now what guy, including a US president, would not be stirred by these words (Wuss, Fool, and Lame)? So, next day Obama said that, yes, these funny French (and British) Sarin samples he had doubted for months are real. The Syrian regime has used Sarin: used a WMD several times and ended up killing more than 100 people. Not sure why he did not use bullets which are less controversial and cheaper than using Sarin several times to kill a mere 100+.
The mainstream US media were ready: they have been ready for months for two wars, Syria and Iran. Nay, the media have been ready for three wars, I forgot Lebanon. Just as they were ready for the liberation of Iraq (2003) and Panama (1989), and the Dominican Republic (1965), and Vietnam, all the way back to Spanish Cuba after the USS Maine was blown up.
As for the European part, I just add the following links to earlier posts:

WMD: How Qusayr and Syrian Activists and Willful European Leaders Revived the Doubtful Sarin Issue

A Grain of Salt: Cameron, Hollande, and the Free Syrian Salafi Army Have Sarin Evidence

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Syria, US Foreign Policy, WMD

Did McCain Try to Hijack US Policy on Syria and the Middle East?……….

      

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Thursday we heard from the networks that the Obama administration has bought the French and British ‘discovery’ and now believes the Syrian forces had used Sarin, a form of WMD. No sooner was this news on the networks than they shifted to the Senate floor; that McCain and Graham were going to deliver the speeches that Obama or Jay Carney should have delivered. No doubt the networks were alerted by McCain and Graham, hoping to force Obama’s hand and to spin the news the way they prefer. Effectively they tried to hijack the administration’s foreign policy on Syria and the wider Middle East. Before the administration announced the news, the two senators declared it and detailed what policy the US government is going to follow and should follow.
The news was that the administration now believes that the Syrians used Sarin on “several occasions” and that between “100 to 150” people died. Nobody seems to have thought about this last fact: used “several time” and killed just over “100”. Now what kind of weapons of MASS destruction is used to kill only a handful of people each time? All that was lost in the noise all over the media and the social media. The social media are smarter, because average people can now opine and average people are smarter (on average) than the news-hungry media types. Most of the doubt over this new shift was expressed in the social media.


Cheers
mhg

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Blockade of Iran, Iran, US Foreign Policy

An Iranian Mystery: Edging toward Victory on the Long Road to Anticipated Collapse?………

      

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“While the Iranian economy struggles to adjust to periodic US sanctions “upgrades,” a significantly devalued currency and restrictions in global financial transactions have suddenly challenged even Iran’s famed adaptability to these kinds of externally-imposed pressures. But something is awry. There is no implosion in Iran. How is that possible with off-the-chart hikes in the price of basic goods, unaffordable housing in congested urban areas, increased youth unemployment? Instead, Iranians who love nothing better than to complain about government and economy, have grumpily rallied against these foreign efforts to pit population against state. According to results of a Gallup poll in February, 85 percent of Iranians claim sanctions have hurt their livelihood……….. But the fact is that sanctions simply don’t work: Iran is not going to stop its nuclear enrichment. Iranians aren’t going to eject their government.……….”

The source article of this above quote (from S. Narwani) is more to the point: the sanctions are NOT working as presumably intended. Iranians, or most of them, having allowed Western plotting and money to overthrow an earlier independent elected government (Mossadeq: Operation Ajax in 1953), are unlikely to cooperate again, even under duress.
An intriguing question, or is it a case study, about Iran. It implicitly poses important questions that may explain this continuous monthly ratcheting-up of the Western blockade. So how is it that besieged Iran, with so-called alleged claimed screamed daily bull-horned on-the-verge-of-collapse under the tightest blockade in modern history, how is it that it can defy the Israeli-manipulated Western blockade? Not only that: how is it that it can defeat the combined worldwide efforts of the United States, the European Union, the hundreds of billions of dollars spent by the sectarian tribal despots of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the UAE? How can a country, a society, allegedly on the verge of collapse and capitulation and crying uncle to the U.S. Congress and AIPAC and an expectantly triumphant Western mainstream media, how can it defy these odds?
How is it that a society under the tightest economic and technological blockade can bring down sophisticated foreign drones, send out its own domestic drones, advance in space and nuclear research and bio-sciences, counter-hack computer systems, run elections (albeit not ideal completely free elections) and wage proxy wars even as it prepares for a massive foreign attack against it that is threatened almost daily by Mr. Netanyahu, the US Congress, Britain’s Cameron, even France’s Hollande, not to mention the funny shaikhs of Bahrain?
Is there something we can’t see? Is there a degree of internal decay and deterioration that we can’t see that points to the imminent Iranian collapse that Mr. Obama’s advisers have been promising him in private? Ich Weiss nicht, aber I think not. Are they, under political pressure, foolishly underestimating the foe? It won’t be the first time.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Blockade of Iran, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Will it be North to Aleppo? a Socialist-Tribal Campaign for Syria………..

      

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“As fighters with Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement wage the battles that are helping Syria’s regime survive, their chief sponsor, Iran, is emerging as the biggest victor in the wider regional struggle for influence that the Syrian conflict has become. With top national security aides set to meet at the White House on Wednesday to reassess options in light of recent setbacks for the rebels seeking Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, the long-term outcome of the war remains far from assured, analysts and military experts say. But after the Assad regime’s capture of the small but strategic town of Qusair last week — a battle in which the Iranian-backed Shiite militia played a pivotal role — Iran’s supporters and foes alike are mulling a new reality: that the regional balance of power appears to be tilting in favor of Tehran……………..”

This man from the so-called Gulf Research Council is putting the usual mandatory GCC spin on events with all the talk of the threat of some imaginary hegemony. So I shall not argue that point: after all it comes from the UAE.
It is too early to wisely predict the final outcome of Syria. But it is true that the tide is now with the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah side. If they consolidate their hold over the rest of Aleppo, the back of the military opposition will have been broken effectively. (Retaking the rest of Homs can be a mop-up, a footnote for future action). That does not mean Bashar Al Assad can relax and resume his pre-2011 autocratic role in Damascus. No, the Syrian genie is out of the bottle, as it is in most Arab states, but it will not be a Salafi genie based on foreign tribal Wahhabi fighters fed by royal petro-money.
Wars, even civil wars, can turn around several time. Only months ago, and for more than a year, it was predicted that Al Assad will be out in a few weeks. So, it may not be wise to predict that he is home free in Damascus to stay. Who knows, the joint French-Saudi campaign to save Aleppo (and hence Syria) for Wahhabi-style democracy may prevail. Shall we call it the Franco-Saudi Socialist Polygamous Tribal Democratic Alliance?
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, France, NATO, Saudi Arabia, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Will French Africa-Bashers and Saudi Democrats Invade Syria? How Will they Fare? ……..

      

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“France and Saudi Arabia agreed during a meeting in Paris that the Hezbollah-backed Syrian troops, which defeated the rebels in the strategic town of Qusayr, should not be allowed to repeat the same scenario in province of Aleppo, Al Arabiya correspondent reported Tuesday. The two countries expressed their stance after Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, and the kingdom’s intelligence head, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, met with French officials. While both countries established the need for international measures to help stave off a repeat of the Qusayr battle, France said an international consensus is required before any military operation can take place……………..” Alarabiya (Saudi semi-official network)

France and Saudi Arabia promise there will be no more repeats of Qusayr (or perhaps Qusair as the British seem to prefer it). That means France and Saudi Arabia will guarantee no more military victories for the Syrian regime.
This means one thing: if the US and Europe refuse to join John McCain in invading Syria, then there is an alternative. The French and Saudis will storm Syria, led by Bernard-Henri Levy and the Mufti Shaikh Al. The Saudis, a couple of years after their defeat at the hands of the ragtag Houthi tribal fighters in Yemen, will transfer their occupation forces holding up the regime from Bahrain to Syria. I can’t wait to get a bucket of popcorn, sit back, and watch the show. Forget the Super Bowl: it is Hezbollah and the Syrian regime against the Saudi vice squad and the French Africa-bashers. Maybe the Saudi and Qatari and French forces can be parachuted down behind enemy lines, to join the Free Syrian Salafi Army militias. Before the storming of the beaches.
 
More seriously: there is a strong push in Western capitals for some kind of NATO intervention. The Arab potentates and, er, petroleum intellectuals (of the tribal monarchy type and the Islamist type and the Salafist type) have been pushing for NATO to help liberate Syria, just as it liberated Libya (2011) and Iraq (2003). In the US this push is from the jingoist right (Republicans) and the jingoist left (Democratic warriors are back, twenty years after the fall of Communism). Mr. Obama is in the middle of this: whatever happens, he’ll get the blame when things go wrong, as they surely will.
The problem in Syria is that the rebels do not control any major urban centers that they can call their own. They control parts of Homs and Aleppo, so both sides are close enough for decisive battles to start (of course, these battles may not be so decisive).

Cheers
mhg

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Drones, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Washington Blasts Syria’s Lebanese Incursion, Ignores Israeli Attacks, Prepares Drones, Arabs Follow the Money…………

         

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“The CIA has stepped up secret contingency planning to protect the United States and its allies as the turmoil expands in Syria, including collecting intelligence on Islamic extremists for the first time for possible lethal drone strikes, according to current and former U.S. officials. President Obama has not authorized drone missile strikes in Syria, however, and none are under consideration. The Counterterrorism Center, which runs the CIA’s covert drone killing program in Pakistan and Yemen, recently shifted several targeting officers to improve intelligence collection on militants in Syria who could pose a terrorist threat, the officials said. The targeting officers have formed a unit with colleagues who were tracking Al Qaeda operatives and fighters in Iraq. U.S. officials believe that some of these operatives have moved to Syria and joined Islamic militias battling to overthrow President Bashar Assad..………….”

The US State Department just today blasted a Syrian air attack on the Lebanese border. The State Department never condemns Israeli air incursions and attacks over Lebanon and Syria. Now the State Department is probably preparing spin media statements for the first drone strikes against Jihadists in Syria (possibly even against regime forces in Syria). That means there will be fewer open-air village weddings in Syria, especially in treble-held areas (sort of like Afghanistan and Pakistan and Yemen and possibly Mali).
But who said politics and diplomacy are consistent anywhere?

  • After all, the Iranians blast the Bahrain regime, rightly so, but they also blast Syrian rebels and help the government.
  • The Saudis blast the rebelling people of Bahrain and support their revolting ruling family even as they support the Syrian rebels.
  • The Egyptians support the Bahrain regime and the Syrian rebels, for now.
  • The Russians support the Syrian regime but don’t give a fuck publicly about what is happening in Bahrain.
  • The Iraqis dislike the Bahrain and Syrian regimes, but they side with the Syrian regime because the Jihadist terrorists who blow up Iraqis also help the Syrian rebels.
  • The Yemenis look at the Saudis and Qataris and Emiratis and take sides accordingly. They don’t have a choice, unless they discover a lot of oil near Sana’.
  • Come to think of it, most Arabs look at the Saudis and Qataris and Emiratis and decide accordingly. That is why we still call it the League of Arab Nations, they all agree on following the petro-money and adjusting their principles, wtf they are, accordingly.


There are a few other players:

  • The Israelis can see benefits (and pitfalls) in any outcome in Syria. As far as the Israelis are concerned, the Arabs are excellent at shooting themselves in the foot and limping away. So why disrupt the pattern? Why ruin a good thing?
  • The Chines play it all close to their chest, while the abacus rings.
  • The Mafia..……… genug, genug.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy

Iraq and Libya: Nearing a Deal on Salafi Terrorists? Giving up Virgin Houri Dreams for a Wife…………..

         

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“It was signed yesterday, Friday, in Tripoli by the Minister of Justice, Salah Al-Marghani, and his Iraqi counterpart, Hassan Shimari. Attending the ceremony were the Deputy President of the General National Congress, Juma Ateega, the Third Deputy Prime Minister, Abdussalam Al-Qadi, Minister of State for GNC affairs Muaz Khoja, Ministry of Justice Undersecretary Sharif Zahri, and the administrator responsible for the file of Libyan prisoners abroad, Sulaiman Al-Fortia. Also attending were the families of Libyan prisoners in Iraq as well as a number of Iraqi businessmen in Libya. The deal is seen as being crucial to improving Libyan-Iraqi relations. “This does not mean that Libyan prisoners will be transferred straightway,” said Taha Shakshuki of the Libyan Group for Demanding Libyan Prisoners Abroad. He said the group has been told by the Justiec Ministry that the agreement is in effect a memorandum of understanding which still requires to be approved by the Iraqi parliament. Nor will Libya prisoners be automatically transferred, he explained. Each case will to be approved by the Iraqi authorities………………”

In some ways Libya hasn’t changed that much in terms of relations with other countries. Under Muammar Qaddafi, Libya used to send weapons and money and occasionally ‘volunteers’ to commit acts of violence in other countries. That was especially true until a decade or so ago, when Qaddafi became a close friend of France and Britain and Italy and the United States. That was sometime before the colonel met Condi Rice and very likely made what he would call an “African” pass at her.
Now the new Libya sends the same bounty abroad, except the combination has changed. They send more people and weapons now than money. But the operation is not as centralized as under Qaddafi. They have also sent a lot of weapons and volunteers to the Salafi terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq. I suspect the same is true of Lebanon and other places. Now the Libyan have formed some group called Libyan Group for Demanding Libyan Prisoners Abroad to try to release those terrorists captured by Iraqi and other security authorities. Interesting that the
Libyan group does not specify Iraq or any one specific country:
apparently now they have many in various countries.
The Saudis also have a group advocating on behalf of their Salafi terrorists held in Iraq: there are many Saudi prisoners in Iraq, and you can bet none of them went there as tourists or pilgrims. Other Gulf governments, at least one that I know of, have negotiated with Iraq for the release of some prisoners, mainly tribal youth who were encouraged to go by Salafi clerics. They are given a hero’s welcome by their tribe and hopefully married off quickly to some tribal girl so that they would forget about rejoining Al-Qaeda and the dreams of all those virgin houris and wine in the afterlife.

Cheers
mhg

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History, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy, USA

A Most Bizarre Jeddah Celebration: Fourth of July and Bastille Day on Ides of March…………

         

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“The American consulate in Jeddah celebrated America’s 237th Independence Day this week.
The event was attended by Ambassador James Smith and his wife Dr. Janet Breslin-Smith, Anne Casper, the American consul general and the guest of honor, Ambassador Ahmed Tayeb, director general of the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Makkah region. A number of other diplomats, dignitaries and friends of America were also present. A colorful ceremony was presented by the marine security guard detachment. Casper said that the American consulate decided to celebrate the national day early because of the many people who travel out of the country in July, and because of the heat. The US celebrates its national day on July 4………………”

I must say, this is the most bizarre rendition of the Fourth of July ever, on the Ides of March. I am almost certain it is a first. Can you imagine the French celebrating Bastille Day in February to accommodate some potentates? Jamais!………. But what a waste: as if the Al Saud princes give a ripe fig (or a sheep’s fatty chiffil) about some far away people who had a revolution and overthrew a despotic king who was not even Wahhabi.
Anyone
didn’t see the Will Smith film, Independence Day? …………

Cheers
mhg

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Ali Khamenei, Blockade of Iran, Iran, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Iranian Official: Could Have U.S. Relations before Judgment Day and Rapture and Mahdi, Feasible Options on the Table…………

         

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“The Supreme Leader will give permission for bilateral talks with the United States if he deems it necessary, the director of the Strategic Research Center of Iran’s Expediency Council said on Wednesday. The relationship with the United States is different than the relationship with other countries because the United States has always been hostile toward the Islamic Republic of Iran after the Islamic Revolution, which can be established through coordination by the Supreme Leader in the proper circumstances and if it meets national interests,” said Hassan Rohani, the Supreme Leader’s representative at Supreme National Security Council, whose secretary is Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. It is not the Supreme Leader’s view that Iran and the United States should not have negotiations and relations until the Day of Judgment………………….”

What he is saying is that we will not necessarily have to wait for the return of our Mahdi, or the Rapture if you prefer, before Iran and the United States can sit down and negotiate bilaterally. It looks like there is some softening in the Iranian position, most likely a reaction to some softening in the Western position. Possibly a result of the Western realization that although the blockade is hurting the Iranians, they can survive it.
Possibly a result of the realization that all the political talk of “all options are on the table” rings hollow: all options are NOT really on the table, only FEASIBLE options are. Only last month Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei dismissed the idea of direct bilateral negotiations with the USA (which probably means indirect negotiations with Israel as well on this nuclear case). But then the Iranians are diverse, there are various opinions expressed on each issue through their media. And this is an election year: not every opinion expressed represents a consensus. Maybe they ought to get a negotiator like William Shatner to mediate.
Cheers
mhg

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