Category Archives: Syria

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria

Year of the Baathists: Iraq and Syria, Nasser and the Kings………….

 

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“On the surface, in fact, the Syrian affair was much milder and less bloody than most Arab revolts. In the past 15 years, the Middle East has been continually shaken like a kaleidoscope, constantly falling into new patterns. There have been two sizable wars and fully two dozen armed uprisings and rebellions………  It was quite clear last week that the latest shake of the kaleidoscope resulted in new patterns and alignments overwhelmingly favorable to Gamal Abdel Nasser. The Syrian revolution was the third in six months by rebels pledged to make common cause with Egypt. Flights of new leaders poured into Cairo for tear-stained embraces with Nasser and nightlong conferences on the future course of that misty concept called Arab unity. Nasser stands at the pinnacle of prestige, if not of power, and the shadow he casts has never been longer. Today, it falls over the entire Arab world from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean………….For the first time in 500 years, the three key Arab states of Egypt, Iraq and Syria have a similar political posture and are on close and friendly terms……….  The monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Jordan—close friends of the West but hated enemies of the Arab nationalists—face the threat of uprisings at the hands of powerful local friends of the man in Cairo…………”


The Iraqi Ba’athists had a taste of power for the first time that year, but it did not last. They were kicked out of the government by their allies, the  Aref brothers who established their own dynasty. The Arefs had been pardoned by leader of the 1958 revolution, Za’eem (General) Abdel Karim Qassim after they had tried to overthrow him. He saved their lives from the executioner, but they went on plotting against him in freedom. He was overthrown by a Ba’athist and Aref alliance that initiated its own bloodbath in Iraq. Aref did not return the favor to Qassim but had him machine-gunned without a trial. Soon he managed to get rid of the Ba’ath, and when he died in a helicopter crash (a favorite way for Iraqi potentates to die) his brother took over until 1968. The second Aref was overthrown by the Ba’athists who killed off almost anybody who could challenge them and they ruled until April 2003.
The Syrian Ba’athists never lost power after March 1963. They had several strongmen who led the Party that ruled Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s father was the last one and the strongest of them, and he arranged for his son to take over when he died. What will happen to Bashar? We shall see: the consensus in the West and among many Arabs was that he was a gonner, but that was last month. The outlook may have changed these past two weeks. The era of the absolute Arab dictator is finished, soon to be followed by the end of the absolute tribal monarch (do you hear me, your majesties?.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Libya, North Africa, Syria

From Libya to Syria: Tribes and Sects with One Flag…………

 

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“Tribal leaders and militia commanders in oil-rich eastern Libya have declared their intention to seek semi-autonomy, raising fears that the country might disintegrate following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), the interim central government based in the capital Tripoli, has repeatedly voiced its opposition to the creation of a partly autonomous eastern region, warning it could eventually lead to the break-up of the North African nation. Thousands of representatives of major tribal leaders, militia commanders and politicians made the declaration on Tuesday in a ceremony held in the eastern city of Benghazi. They vowed to end decades of marginalisation under Gaddafi and named a council to run the affairs of the newly created region, extending from the central coastal city of Sirte to the Egyptian border in the east. Al Jazeera’s Nicole Johnston, reporting from the capital Tripoli, said the announcement was only the beginning of a process………...”

That is what happens when the façade of ‘nationhood’ that Qaddafi violently maintained collapses. Yet oil, petroleum, is the one item most likely to keep Libya from breaking apart now.
Most Arab states are basically a balance of tribal, ethnic, and sectarian interests. Egypt is famously the one exception. Egypt is not a tribal society and it has historically accepted a multi-ethnic culture (contrary to common belief, Egyptian people have roots from all around the Mediterranean and the rest of the Middle East). The Christian Copts were never an “issue” until the Mubarak regime started to dismantle the secular state that was initiated in the days of Mohammed Ali (Pasha not Clay). Egyptian Jews were not an “issue” until after the first Palestine War of 1948 (what Arabs call the Nakba, catastrophe, and Jews call Israel’s War of Independence). In Egypt, Shi’as are a tiny minority that the Mubarak regime magnified and built up into an illusory threat, no doubt under Saudi Wahhabi pressure. Now, with the political system of Egypt Islamized, with the Salafis effectively sharing parliamentary power with the Muslim Brotherhood, all bets are off.
 
In Syria also sectarian, tribal, and ethnic divisions are coming out into the open. Except Syria has more of these divisions, deeper divisions, longer suppressed than either Libya or Egypt. And Syria has been under the Ba’athist rule since 1963, under effective Ba’athist ideological political influence since the late 1940s. A very long period of the denial of divisions, of sweeping things under the rug. And Syria is surrounded by states that perceive their own national interests in Syria, and they are beginning to interfere and intervene.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Salafi, Syria, US Foreign Policy

On Syrian Casualties: Caught Between the Free Syrian Army and Hezbollah………….

 

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I knew this was coming. I knew this would happen, but I didn’t expect it so soon. The Saudi semi-official Alrabiya network reports that now more than 10 thousand Syrians have been killed by the Assad regime during the past year. The network quotes ‘unofficial’ statistics of Syrian ‘activists’ that the number of those killed suddenly jumped from 7 thousand two days ago to more than 10 thousand.
I remember the days a few weeks ago when it was only 3,000 or was it 4,000. They claim that the 7,000 were only those whose death was recorded “by video” or otherwise proven (by the activists of course). The report notes that the figure does not include the thousands of regime soldiers and officers who were killed (or perhaps died of natural causes).
I expect the Free Syrian Army (FSA) is in deep discussion with the brotherly, or is it sisterly, Arab intelligence services trying to decide when is it convenient to up the figure to 20 thousand. The Salafis are probably all for pushing the number to 40 thousand, but the Muslim Brothers are probably balking: unlike the Salafis, they believe in moderation, even in lying. I a not sure that even upping the figure dramatically will get NATO to start bombing unilaterally.

On the other hand, actually on the other extreme, both Iran and Hezbollah are beginning to ‘suspect’ what they had known all along: that ‘something’ may be happening in Syria after all. They are beginning to note that life is not going on as usual, that people are actually dying in places like Homs and other towns. After all, it can’t all be made up by CNN and Anderson Cooper and Arwa Damon, can it? They haven’t yet decided on who is doing all that killing, but give them some time.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, France, Saudi Arabia, Syria

The Frustrated King and the Tragedy of Baba Amr………….

 

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The King of Saudi Arabia is apparently pissed at the Syrian opposition, especially the Free Syrian Army, for evacuating Baba Amr in Homs. The FSA said its withdrawal was “tactical”. Generalissimo Prince Khaled bin Sultan, the ‘hero’ who was trounced by the Huthi tribal militia in Yemen two years ago, snorted that “’Tactical’ my ass. That is what Napoleon said after Moscow. That is what Adolf said after Stalingrad.”


The King is reportedly upset that the FSA could not hold long enough for his own elite National Guard, now preoccupied in Bahrain, to blitz across some border into Syria and relieve the people of Homs. Burhan Ghalioun of the Syrian national Council announced in Paris (possibly from a corner table at Fouquet, corner of Champs–Élysées & George V) the formation of a Supreme Military Council to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA) now that it may be too late. He reportedly offered the job to Marshal Tantawi who declined, adding that he has enough trouble with his own Salafis and Muslim Brothers, and has no intention of taking on the Syrian version (or was it the Saudi and Qatari versions?)


Bashar al-Assad, meanwhile, told anyone who would listen that the fall of Baba Amr and Homs proves that he is still loved by the Syrian people (especially those his security forces have not killed, yet). He added: “They were willing to die for me…….. and for the immortal ideals of the Ba’ath Party, WTF that be“.

His wife, smarter than her husband which is the normal case for Arab leaders, reminded him not to cancel the offer on that old dacha of Brezhnev overlooking the Black Sea.

Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Syria, US Foreign Policy

The Agony of Syria: More on Ghalioun, SNC, FSA, KSA, GCC, KGB, XYZ……..

 

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“Meanwhile, the head of Syrian National Council (SNC) announced on Thursday at a press conference in Paris, the launch of a military council to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Burhan Ghalioun who said that SNC will be seeking advice from consultants and experts on how to support, organize and oversee FSA, added that the formation of the military council came after consensus among all armed oppositions in Syria. Ghalioun said that the military council was also created after some countries announced that they were ready to arm the FSA. He said it is a step to bring together one Syrian umbrella all armed groups in a bid to reduce foreign influence in the country. ………….  But the Arab League chief, Nabil al-Arabi, said on Thursday that the Arab group has nothing to do with the decision to arm the Syrian opposition………”


Mr. Burhan Ghalioun may be somewhat naïve. He has stepped into the middle of an uprising that is being hijacked by absolute tribal Arab potentates and their fundamentalist surrogates. I wonder if he doesn’t realize that he is stepping into a snake pit that might be more venomous than the regime of Bashar al-Assad and his Baath. I wonder if he does not realize that he will be a temporary tool for his domestic and foreign “partners”. That is the way it often goes: all exiles who deal with dogmatic and fundamentalist allies are at a disadvantage. Just look back at France after 1789, Russia after 1917, and Iran after 1979.
If and when (probably more when than if) the Assad regime departs, Mr. Ghalioun will be effectively brushed aside. I hope I am wrong, but I think not. He may temporarily return to Syria as a figurehead ‘leader’ of some initial use to the Salafis and Muslim Brothers, but not for long. The example of Libya and Tunisia (and probably Egypt as well) are quire relevant here. Especially relevant is Tunisia, where a secular opposition figure was brought back to legitimize what is becoming a fundamentalist takeover of a secular revolution.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Syria, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Hillary Clinton and Democracy Hypocrisy: Yemen and Syria and Iran……

 

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“Syria’s authoritarian regime held a referendum on a new constitution Sunday, a gesture by embattled President Bashar Assad to placate those seeking his ouster. But the opposition deemed it an empty gesture and the West immediately dismissed the vote as a “sham.”…..” AP

“U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday hailed the presidential election in Yemen, offering continuous support to the Arab nation as it confronts challenges ahead. …..”
Only one candidate allowed in Yemen and he “won” 99.8% of the vote, and there were many dead. Clinton must think Arabs are stupid. Here are my rantings on Yemen yesterday.

“On June 14, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement on repression in Iran and Syria to mark the second anniversary of the disputed 2009 presidential election in Iran….“
Ahmadinejad had three candidates running against him, he claimed less than 60% of the vote, I think about 58%. Arab SpringMuch more democratic than the travesty in Yemen, wouldn’t you say? The difference is that he was not sponsored by the Saudi king and the absolute potentates of the GCC and the Western powers.

So, the new definition of democratic elections is simple: they are the elections that are approved by the absolute tribal polygamous Saudi king and the absolute shaikhs of Qatar and UAE and Bahrain. And they are hailed by Western media (CNN, Fox) as true elections. Cute.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Syria and Yemen and the Lions: the 100% Solution, the 99.8% Solution……..

 

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No doubt President Assad will not last in Syria, not if the alleged 6,000 killings are true. His father is reported to have killed many more in Hama, but we are not sure how many. Those were days of no internet (not outside the U.S defense establishment) and no cell phones with cameras. The opposition was not as media-savvy and opportunistic as it is now. Besides, most governments, including all Arab governments that now condemn Bashar, colluded with the father in covering up the alleged massacre. The father survived, nay thrived, after Hama because the rest of the world allowed him to.
This is unlikely to happen with Bashar. Not only there are television videos, no doubt some of them are fake or modified for international audiences, but there are other factors. Under Hafiz al-Assad (Arabic for the Lion Keeper) the political atmosphere in the region was quite different. Under Bashar al-Assad (Arabic for Bearer of Good News to the Lion) too many regional and international powers want a piece of Syria. The Iranians and Russians want to keep Assad in power because he is their ally. The Saudis and Gulf potentates want Assad replaced with someone who would be their ally against Iran. The West wants someone in Syria who would kick the Iranians out and switch their support in Lebanon from Hezbollah to the Hariri and the Falange militias. The West, and the Israelis, dream of 1982, when the Lebanese right-wing made an impossible short-lived deal with Israel and Reagan stupidly sent in the Marines, thinking Lebanon was like Grenada. They believed the right-wing Arab propaganda that the Lebanese people welcomed them (most did not, even more would not now).

So, what to do with Syria? The Yemen solution where the “new” president reverted to the true Arab election style by winning 99.8%? Or the Tunisian solution which is more democratic (so far)? Or the Egyptian solution that is not clear yet?
Syria will have to be different if a civil war is to be averted: it will probably have to be a consensus solution that gives everyone something to take home. Nobody loses too much: not sure about the Syrian people. The Iranians and Russians want the regime to remain; they don’t want to lose out. The Saudis want the regime to go and they prefer a new fundamentalist regime that is close to them: the princes can dangle the promise of a lot of money even their own people face tough conditions at home.
No doubt the next regime will be some sort of fundamentalist Islamic concoction that reflects the “current” mood of many, if not all, Syrians. It will be a Sunni regime, which will probably be hostile to both Iran and Israel, at least on paper. Until the Saudi (and maybe the Qatari) oligarchs present them with the political bill for “liberation”.
Well: you live and you learn.
Cheers
mhg


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9/11, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Iraq, NATO, Syria, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Asinine Views of Evil: What the West Thinks, What Muslims Think………

    

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“Of course, it’s difficult to ascertain the views of Iranians. State censorship is tight, and foreign journalists are rarely allowed into the country. Nevertheless, it is possible to make contact with some Iranians. And when you speak with them, you learn something quite surprising: Even if they oppose Ahmadinejad, their radical president, most of these Iranians still view their country as the victim in the current circumstances. They also view the West as an enemy and fail to consider or acknowledge that there are massive differences between hawks in Israel and doves within the Obama administration. “After 9/11, George W. Bush systematically portrayed Iran as the bogeyman. That’s happening again now. I have seen no indication that we are building a nuclear bomb,” says one professor in Tehran…………..”

The problem with many in the West is that they often try to think for others, often assuming anyone who is against a repressive regime automatically agrees with the West on all issues.
Take Iran and the nuclear issue: most Iranians support their country’s nuclear program even as many of them are opposed to the regime. Many of the Syrian “rebels” are probably more militant than the Assad regime about the occupied Golan Heights (John McCain and Joe Lieberman have somehow missed that one). Many, but not all, of these Syrians certainly are Islamic fundamentalists who have no use for Western values, although they’d love Western weapons and Western troops to help against their dictator.
After 9/11, George W Bush and the neoconservatives could not exactly put the blame where it belonged, on the one country that provided the ideology, the fatwas, the volunteers, and the money for the terrorist attacks. The Bushes and the Cheneys could not offend their pals the petroleum princes in Riyadh. They focused on softer targets like Iraq and Iran. Hence the nonsense about “Axis of Evil” (so far the most asinine catch phrase of the first decade of the new century) that excluded the Salafi swamp. The West blockaded Iran; the West liberated Iraq soon after it ‘liberated’ Afghanistan, before the West went on to liberate Libya last year and is thinking of liberating Syria later this year.
Many idiotic neoconservatives, other sanctimonious Republicans, and a few Democrats seeking reelection are now pondering ways to liberate Iran.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Revolutions, Human Right, Syria, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Bashar al-Assad on Ending the Violence (in Syria)………..

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“Russia’s foreign minister said after Damascus talks on Tuesday that President Bashar al-Assad was “fully committed” to ending the bloodshed in Syria even as regime tanks pounded the central city of Homs for a fourth straight day. Sergei Lavrov said he had had a “very useful” meeting with Assad and that Moscow was eager to work towards a solution based on an Arab League plan that it had previously criticised. “We (Russia) confirmed our readiness to act for a rapid solution to the crisis based on the plan put forward by the Arab League,” said Lavrov, adding that Syria was also ready see an enlarged Arab League mission in the country, Russian news agencies said……”

Of course Assad is committed to ending the violence. The problem is that he seems to want to end it his own way: by killing off the opposition. That would end the violence, but if the opposition refuses to be killed off, then it goes on. Qaddafi also tried to end the violence by finishing off the opposition, but NATO would not allow him. The al-Khalifa regime in Bahrain is doing the same, but on a smaller scale mainly because the people are protesting peacefully. The Western powers liberated Libya from its dictator, just as earlier they had liberated Iraq from its dictator. Syrian opposition and impotent Arab potentates want the West to intervene again militarily and change the regime in Damascus. They were check-mated by the Russian and Chinese vetoes at the UN in their efforts to do a repeat of Libya in Syria.
Will they still do it in Syria in this election year? It will certainly be a tougher nut to crack given that the regime is organized and well-armed (they can do some damage to NATO warplanes and tanks). Besides, Assad still has some regional and international allies (Iran, Russia, China, Lebanon, a few others).
Will they do it? Ich weiss nicht.
Cheers
mhg


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France, Gulf states, Human Right, Syria, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

True Lies in New York: Syrian Hypocrisy Prizes at the UN ………..

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Watched the UN Security Council “debate” on the Syria resolution. A lot of hypocrisy and grandstanding on both sides:

  • No doubt the Syrian regime is killing many people, most likely not as many as the “opposition” claims and reporters like Anderson Cooper immediately accept and repeat. The number of 260 killed for today is most likely exaggerated.
  • (There I just said it: the Syrian opposition lies as the regime lies; no thunder, no lightening has struck me yet. Not yet).
  • First hypocrisy prize goes to the French ambassador. He waxed nostalgic and sad and shocked about the Hama massacre some thirty years ago, about those responsible. A reporter asked the Frenchy why one of the Assads responsible for Hama massacre 1980(1?) has been living free in France even as he talked bout it. His stupid response: “We are a hospitable country”, and a quick exit.
  • Second hypocrisy prize goes to U.S. ambassador Susan Rice, who said with a straight face that the United States government stands with the people of Syria as they seek freedom and democracy. The same U .S. administration that supports the repression in Bahrain and supplies the regime with tear gas and guns and armored vehicles for crowd control. She did not comment on the Saudi regime, which is as repressive, and would kill as many people if need be to stay in power.
  • Third hypocrisy prize goes to the British ambassador waxing indignant about repression in Syria and countries that enable it. Even while his own government has been supporting repression and killings and arrests by the Bahrain regime.

  • The Mother of all Hypocrisy prizes goes to the Arab League, which represents some of the most despotic regressive corrupt regimes on earth. Yet it goes to the UN with a resolution to deal only with the repression in Syria: not in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, etc, none of whose people chooses its regime. The Syrian ambassador made a silly remark about Saudi women not being allowed to attend football (soccer) games while their regime talks about human rights. He was right on that point.


One American academic suggested that maybe now (after the Russian and Chinese vetoes) the Arab League should think of intervening a la NATO in Kosovo. I tweeted my favorite retort: that the Arab League, especially on the military side, can’t organize a piss-up in a brewery (as some Americans would say) let alone a military campaign.
Cheers
mhg


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