Category Archives: Jordan

Arab Politics, Egypt, GCC, Jordan, Morocco

GCC Expansion or Contraction? From the Deserts of Jordan through Tahrir Square to Lido de Paris………

      

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They are raising the issue of GCC confederation and expansion again. Bahrain shaikhs and elites, their country already almost annexed by Saudi occupation forces and having nothing to lose, are also pushing for it publicly and on social media. Wahhabi liberals on the Persian Gulf, who look to the absolute Saudi princes for Liberté et Egalité et Fraternité, are as excited about it as they probably can get excited about anything (save perhaps for one other thing). But as I have been saying since 2011 the Saudi idea ploy of confederation has always been DOA.
 
There is even a revival of the idea of expansion, even as some claim the original GCC may be unraveling, well maybe at least weakening. At least the long-existing differences cannot be swept under the rug anymore. Just as a couple of GCC countries seem ready to bolt out of the stifling Saudi embrace. Yet there is new absurd talk of Egypt being asked to join: the media told us Al Sisi and a gaggle of Al Nahayans had some sort of joint Jane Fonda military exercises last week.
 
We know that the Saudi princes have been seeking pliable partners to expand the Gulf GCC. Except that there are no more pliable partners left. They have tried with Jordan in 2011, but then King Abdul in Amman called one of his funny but humorless elections, and the princes don’t cotton up to elections, even funny humorless elections in Jordan. Some GCC potentates quickly and untruthfully claimed they were postponing Jordanian accession until after Ramadan (of 2011). They also invited faraway Morocco to apply for membership, but that was before the King of Morocco called elections which were won by what passes for the Moroccan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Alas, Morocco has no Generalisimo Field Marshal Al Sisi who can set things right after undesirable election results.

Now rumors have it that the princes have been toying with reliably counter-revolutionary Egypt as a possible member, initially that was on the table in 2012 as a ploy to keep the Muslim Brotherhood from winning the last election. Some wags have even claimed that since Crimea voted for secession the princes had thought that maybe they can get that region to join the GCC, but Vladimir Putin quickly beat them to it with this annexation thing.
 
Back to the drawing board. Morocco and Jordan and Egypt may still look good as targets of Saudi wooing. But speaking of wooing: the Saudi princes are notorious polygamists, much more so than any Westerner, even a French president like Francois Hollande. Polygamy can be added as their middle name: Polygamous Kingdom of Saudi Arabia sounds correct while “Polygamous French Republic” sounds so wrong even if true, especially in French.
I suspect, nay I know, that all of these one-night-stand candidates have less chance of joining the GCC than Turkey has of joining the European Union. Less chance now than the State of Mississippi has of joining the Organization of Islamic Countries. All of them together have about as much chance of becoming GCC members as I have of becoming the next Mufti of Saudi Arabia (or a mufti of anywhere else for that matter).

Cheers
mhg

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Corruption, Interpol, Jordan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia

Of Interpol, Shady Princes, and a Humorless Jordanian Fugitive……..

      

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“An Interpol red notice, seeking the arrest in London of a Jordanian businessman at the centre of a high profile legal dispute involving two senior Saudi princes, has finally been withdrawn after more than two years. Faisal Almhairat claims that the notice authorising his extradition was issued in pursuit of a business vendetta. The international police agency, based in Lyons, France, has admitted belatedly that it was not “in compliance with Interpol’s rules”. Almhairat, 45, has been living a fugitive’s life in London, moving from hotel to hotel, because he says he fears that if extradited back to Saudi Arabia he would not receive a fair trial…………..”


In recent years Interpol has occasionally acted as a private security agency or a private outsourcing concern for some governments, but not all governments. The Saudi government is one of those lucky ones: can you imagine Interpol being so accommodating to Venezuela or Vietnam for example? 

If this Jordanian man was a Saudi national, it is almost certain that Interpol would have kept trying and would have succeeded in getting him sent packing to the tender mercies of the princes. As it is, they kept trying for two years to send him back. In fact it is also likely that even with him being a humorless Jordanian, he would have been sent back quickly if he were not enjoying the protection of the British legal system. Now I don’t know if this man is innocent of the accusations or just another crook: he can be either. As far as I know being humorless is not a punishable crime, especially not in Riyadh and certainly not in Jordan. (Why doesn’t he go home to Jordan? Is he worried that King Abdul will pack him back to the princes?).

Remember the young Saudi journalist who two years ago tweeted something the princes and their Wahhabi clerics had thought was blasphemy? Kashghari escaped to Malaysia, where Interpol quickly cooperated with the pro-Saudi authorities of that country in having him sent back to a possible death sentence. He was in fact imprisoned for over two years without a trial. (And no, they have never heard of Miranda or his rights in the Kingdom without Magic where rights for the average Mutlaq are sparse and far between).

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Politics, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism

Iraq and Saudi and Qatar: One Man’s Terrorist as another Man’s Proxy………

      

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“Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has accused Saudi Arabia and Qatar of seeking to destabilise his country by supporting insurgent groups and providing them with financial support. In an interview with French television channel France24, Mr Maliki said the two countries had effectively declared war on Iraq. “They are attacking Iraq through Syria, and in a direct way,” he said. Mr Maliki also accused Saudi Arabia of supporting global “terrorism”……………”

Such open sharp attack on the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Qatar is uncharacteristic of Nouri Al Maliki. For years he has been silent as the two Wahhabi ruling dynasties heaped charges against him, mainly calling him a stooge of the Iranian mullahs. (Oddly, it was not the Iranians who initially paved the way to power for Al Maliki). His outburst is partly exasperation at the recent sharp escalation in acts of terrorism against civilians inside Iraq. Committed by uninvited Arab visitors to Iraq. Some Gulf states have been involved in Iraq for years, some of the more sectarian businessmen and clerics and zealots among Iraq’s neighbors started causing mischief right after the 2003 fall of the Baathist regime. Many of the Arab Jihadist terrorists that plague Iraq came from among the Salafis of the Persian Gulf states and Saudi Arabia (Abu Mus’ab Al Zarqawi, being the most notorious and most humorless of them all, naturally came from Jordan). Saudi money and tribal contacts in Western Iraq have no doubt influenced matters inside Iraq. Qatari potentates have the money to spend, or burn if need be, inside Iraq. They can afford, if they choose, to burn money in order to burn Iraq.


Of course it is not all that simple. Al Maliki may also be thinking of the coming elections later this spring. It is a good time to appeal to his political base and try to get them agitated for the elections. Al Maliki probably wants another term as prime minister. (All Arab leaders always want to rule forever, that is the most common characteristic of the region: must be something in the water). 
It would be best for Iraq if someone else is picked by the next parliament. Keeping the same man as head of government is not a good way to cleanse the Baathist legacy of dictatorship. even if the man comes to power through an electoral system.
Of curse I know of one man who would be worse for Iraq than Mr. Al Maliki. That would be Ayad Allawi, whose chance of getting the job is next to zero percent. Fortunately my old fatwa of the last Iraqi elections in 2009 still holds. I believe I said that Allawi has as much chance of becoming prime minister of Iraq as I have of becoming prime minister of Israel (I now amend that by adding Saudi Arabia since only the king can be prime minister, no matter how old he is). Mr. Allawi also has as much chance of becoming the PM of Iraq as h has of becoming the PM of Saudi Arabia (where he is the only Shi’a that is considered kosher and halal in Riyadh).

Cheers
mhg

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GCC, Jordan, North Africa

Morocco and Jordan and GCC Constitutional Monarchy……

   

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                          Neck of the woods

Remember the Saudi plan of last year to have Morocco and Jordan join the Gulf GCC? So what happened to that Saudi plan? Are they working hard in Riyadh on modalities for Jordanian and Moroccan membership? Does the complete silence on this issue relate to the fact that Morocco is now more of a constitutional monarchy that it was last year? Is it related to the fact that the Star Trek king of Jordan is being pressured to allow freer elections? But that is exactly what the Bahraini opposition is demanding: to have a constitutional regime like Morocco. Yet the whole GCC establishment and the Wahhabi-tribal-liberals rose against the Bahraini people and their demand. That is what some of the Gulf tribal-Islamist opposition claim to be seeking, but selectively: they strongly oppose a constitutional monarchy for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. They must think the al-Saud princes and al-Khalifa kleptocrats are fonts of wisdom that can’t be replicated through any election.
As for Qatar and the UAE and Oman, they claim that they already have the most unelected unrepresentative democracy that money can buy (actually can’t buy in the case of Oman). The al-Saud princes are slightly different: they have the least democratic and least representative and least free system that oil money has a hard time buying.
Cheers
mhg
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Arab Revolutions, Jordan, Syria

Jordan: a Favorite Destination of Arab Refugees………

    

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                       Neck of the woods
“The number of Syrians in Jordan has passed 140,000, according to relief agencies, as officials scramble to expand overcrowded transit facilities. According to interior ministry statistics quoted by the UN, over 140,000 Syrians have crossed into Jordan legally and illegally since Damascus’ launch of a military crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in March 2011, a number the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) says is rising by some 300 per day. Of the total, some 26,000 have registered as refugees — a number expected to hit 30,000 by the end of the month — in yet another sign that displaced Syrians are preparing for an extended stay in the Kingdom. Meanwhile, the influx of Syrian refugees has pushed so-called transit facilities “beyond capacity”, local relief agencies say, prompting authorities to establish the fourth holding centre in less than six months…….”

When Iraq was going through its min civil war, only Jordan and Syria opened their doors to the inevitable refugees. Other countries: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, talked loudly about the plight of Iraqis but they did not open their doors. Syria and Jordan did: this almost makes up for these two countries’ lack of a sense of humor, almost. Now Syria is in turmoil, and it is Jordan as the only Arab country that is receiving most of the refugees. The other Arabs claim support for the Syrian people, but they don’t want them anywhere nearby. (The one odd exception may be a twist in Bahrain: the regime is importing many Syrians with experience in crowd control, interrogation, and torture to help it crush the uprising of the Bahrain people).
This Jordanian stand deserves some praise, given the country’s limited resources. It should shame countries like Saudi Arabia that is the loudest in support of the opposition and provides arms and volunteers but would not allow refugees. Assuming Syrian refugees want to go to the grim Wahhabi kingdom. It goes to show you: humor is not everything during a period of turmoil.
Cheers
mhg
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Arab Counterrevoltion, GCC, Humor, Jordan, Muslims, religious police, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Funning about the Princes and the Muftis: Obama for Crown Prince or Jordanian Gauleiter……………

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“SAUDI ARABIA’s response to the Arab spring might be described as allergic. The tiniest whiff of protest last March prompted the government to outlaw demonstrations. Even as women, in effect, continue to be banned from driving, and dissidents jailed or banned from travelling, a new media law has clamped tighter restrictions on the press. Echoing events in tiny Bahrain, where the ruling family crushed Shia protests, Saudi security forces have responded to rising unrest in their country’s east, among the kingdom’s own 10% Shia minority, with blunt measures, including live gunfire that killed five protesters in recent months. Instead, the immediate beneficiaries of the Arab spring in Saudi Arabia may be a new generation of comedians and artists. They certainly stole the limelight on 19th January, at the opening of “We Need to Talk”.…..…” The Economist

I think they need to smile and laugh more than they need to talk. I will believe that Saudi comedy (an oxymoron?) has arrived if they start some joke with “Prince Nayef and the Mufti walked into this bar and…………” or “The Mufti stumbled into a Hussainiyah thinking it was the mosque and…………”
 
More seriously, I am not familiar with Saudi humor. I have known Saudis, mostly in business, but none of them ever cracked a joke within my earshot. Or maybe they did and I didn’t recognize it as a joke. I had thought joking was frowned upon over there: sort of like women driving, laughing in public, smiling in public, dressing different, thinking different from everyone else, thongs, tank-tops, mentioning the words ‘freedom’ or ‘protest’ or ‘Shi’a’, among other things.
Actually once in a shopping mall in Riyadh I tried smiling (in the United States I got used to the nasty habit of smiling at people in public, except in NYC subways). It was close to the noon prayer time, and the shaggy religious cops (Commission for the Propagation of Vice) were waving their (khaizaran) bamboo sticks ominously. They were coming toward me as they scowled at shoppers, hinting that soon all men should be inside a mosque and all women at home awaiting their pleasure. I flashed a smile at the nearest hairy one. His scowl deepened as he got closer. I decided that I had made a mistake and focused on a shop window: unfortunately it was a women’s lingerie shop with an Asian salesman behind the counter. I will write more about that later.
Back to the humor: Yet the Mufti of Saudi Arabia is often smiling in his photos. Shaikh Al Al Shaikh almost smiles as often as Ahmadinejad, and both smile much more than either crown prince Nayef or Ayatollah Khamenei (not that hard). It is possible that Saudi humor is a bit more ‘discernible’ than, say, Jordanian humor. I have never seen or heard any of the latter. I think they ought to openly outlaw humor in both countries: that way everyone, especially visitors, will know where they stand. In some Gulf places like the UAE, it is not illegal to laugh or even smile in public, especially if one is a man. Yet if you look directly at someone they would quickly scowl. Once you look at them, the face loses that ‘neutral’ inexpressive vacant look and a scowling (also vacant) mask covers everything. I suspect it is an attempt at showing some gravitas under scrutiny: it is a common Gulf issue.
I bet Obama could never get elected shaikh of Abu Dhabi or crown prince of Saudi Arabia (or Gauleiter of Jordan): he smiles too much in public.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, GCC, Humor, Jordan, North Africa

Moroccans are from Mars, the GCC from Venus? Democracy and Humor………..

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“Scientists have confirmed that a rocky meteor that broke apart in the atmosphere and crashed last July came from Mars. The space-faring stones, perhaps blasted free of the Red Planet by an ancient planetary collision, are the first documented Martian debris to fall to Earth in 50 years. The rare meteorites have been scooped from the African sands by collectors and dealers, who are selling them for thousands of dollars. The Martian meteor’s fiery fall through Earth’s atmosphere last year was seen by Moroccan nomads and military personnel………”

That may explain why the Saudi princes are backtracking on their decision to have Morocco join the Gulf GCC. Martians against Venusians, it would never work out. Moroccans are inching closer to a constitutional monarchy, and that is something the Saudis sent their tanks into Bahrain to prevent last year (and still at it this year). I recall they also listed Jordan as a candidate for membership. They probably dropped that for ‘sense of humor’ reasons: Jordanians are supposedly allegedly reputedly reportedly credibly even less humorous than most of the Gulf potentates, possibly less humorous than Adolf Hitler, so why bother?
Cheers
mhg


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Ali Khamenei, Human Right, Humor, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Middle East, WTF

A Very Funny Iranian Political Story…….

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“There are unconfirmed reports that the qualifications of 30 to 40 current MPs, who had registered to run for the March parliamentary elections, have not been approved by the government’s appointed executive committees, the Mehr News Agency has learnt. The qualifications of the parliamentary candidates have to be approved by the mentioned committees, the Interior Ministry, and the Guardian Council respectively. These MPs were initiators of controversial proposals at the parliament……….”

This Iranian news agency has a subtle sense of humor. Political humor should be subtle in the Middle East, it is safer that way (except in places where humor may not exist anyway, like Jordan and Gaza and possibly the West Bank and Israel). It says the qualifications of these listed members were not approved (not yet, hints that maybe not later either) for the March elections in Iran. It also says that these members were “initiators of controversial proposals at the parliament”, wtf that may mean. Yet it seems as simple as putting two and two together (2+2=4, normally, except when it is inconvenient).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arabian Peninsula, Economics, Finance, GCC, Gulf states, Jordan, Persian-American Gulf, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Leadership of GCC: Three Major Failures, Three Strikes but not Out, not yet……..

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The GCC summit of the Gulf states this week again proved the failure of the shaky type of leadership the Saudis have tried to impose. This last summit marks three major “projects” that have failed.

  1. The GCC leaders gave the usual lip service to the ‘latest’ Saudi proposal that they should work toward some form of a political union. Gulf Salafis and Saudi media had been calling for a “confederation” since Bahrain joined the Arab revolutions in February. The leaders decided to start discussions and talks about that in the future, which is the usual way to kill any proposal.

  2. With this Saudi suggestion for a confederation dead on arrival (DOA), the leaders turned their attention briefly to killing another earlier strange Saudi proposal. They quickly killed the earlier Saudi proposal to allow Jordan and Morocco to join the GCC. They agreed to allow some form of limited “partnership” for Jordan and Morocco (I hate to say I told you so, but these people don’t listen to me anymore: that is what I predicted here, more than once). The potentates also voted US$ 5 billion in aid for the two countries to ease any disappointment after raising their hopes with the ill-advised Saudi membership proposal that was a product of fear. That will not exactly entertain the notoriously humorless Jordanians but it should keep the scowls moderate. Besides, Bahrain, and probably the UAE, will continue to import security agents and interrogators (know as torturers in less genteel parlance) from Jordan.

  3. Long before all that, before the Arab uprisings, the GCC quietly shelved the unified currency proposal, although they keep pretending they are still working on it.This is something they have been working on for almost three decades. I knew it would fail simply because they had not done the necessary preliminary work for it. And they do not need it: they tried it at the whim of some ignoramus potentate (you know who I mean).

  • That is three strikes for the Saudis, or three downs and short of a first down (three failures in American-ese).
  • Let’s see what other gems of proposals they will come up with next. Maybe the Saudis’ next proposal should be more modest, something within the capabilities of their bureaucrats. I shall post more on this sometime later.

  • I strongly suspect that any Saudi proposal about anything would not succeed unless they throw a lot of money at it.  Even then the money is no guarantee of success. They are trying feat, but I doubt it will succeed. Fear of Saudi domination, close up and right next door, may be stronger than fear of the Iranian mullahs who are far across the Persian-American Gulf and beyond the American navy.


Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Jordan, Syria

Bashar al-Assad, King Abdul, and Jordanian Humor, again………….

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““I believe, if I were in his shoes, I would step down,” King Abdullah told the BBC. “If Bashar has the interest of his country, he would step down, but he would also create an ability to reach out and start a new phase of Syrian political life.”…….” (King Abdul of Jordan)

This is the closest that the Jordanian king has ever come to humor, as far as I recall (unless you consider his Star Trek scene). No Arab leader has ever shown any inclination to leave office unless forced to. No Arab bureaucrat has ever shown any inclination to leave office unless forced to. That includes kings, dictators, and their flunkies and minions. It includes Jordanian kings (his father King Hussein killed a lot of people, mostly fellow-humorless Palestinians, in order to stay in power). Maybe I have been wrong about Jordanians; maybe there is a glimmer of some humor somewhere over there. But I need more evidence.
(Of course, the Syrians use their own interrogators and torturers, they don’t import any from Jordan, Unlike the regime in Bahrain and UAE)
Cheers
mhg


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