Category Archives: Iraq

Iran, Iraq, Middle East Nuclear, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

Appointment in Baghdad: Percentages of U-235, Netanyahu the Most Predictable………..

    

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“The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, has said that Tehran does not intend to stop producing uranium enriched to a purity level of 20 percent. Jalili, who is Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, made the remarks during a press conference in Istanbul on Saturday after two rounds of talks between representatives of Iran and the 5+1 group (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany), which ended a 15-month hiatus in talks. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton represented the 5+1 group in the nuclear negotiations and Jalili headed the Iranian delegation………”

“MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi has said that the topic of lifting economic sanctions against Iran will be discussed during the next round of talks between Tehran and the major world powers, which is scheduled to be held in Baghdad on May 23. He also said that the issue of uranium enrichment is highly important to the Islamic Republic, adding that Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the supervision of the International
Atomic Energy Agency…………”

Interesting take, or maybe spin, by Iranian officials, through a semi-official news agency. Enrichment of uranium to 20% (i.e. 20% weight fraction of U-235) is usually needed for medical isotopes, while enrichment to 5% is needed for power generation. Neither is sufficient for developing a nuclear weapons.
The Iranian official seems certain they will not give up on 20% enrichment needed for medical isotopes. They also seem certain there will be meeting in Baghdad next month. The two don’t seem compatible in view of previously-expressed official American opinion. Maybe the Iranians are also bluffing. We’ll have to wait the U.S. State Department comments this week, perhaps later today. Both sides seemed subdued this weekend, except for Netanyahu who is probably the most predictable politicians in the world. Netanyahu mouthed off his usual mantra, biding his time as he awaits the inauguration of Mitt Godot Romney.
(FYI: I am not a nuclear physicist, not anymore, or maybe not yet)
Cheers
mhg


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Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Congress, US Foreign Policy

Allawi and Omar Suleiman and the Princes: Seeking GOP Help in Washington againt Obama………..

    

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“In a surprise move that could cast doubt on the nomination, Allawi attacked McGurk as being “biased” and “unfit” for the position, warning that members of his Sunni-dominated Iraqiya bloc could boycott the new American envoy. Allawi, whose Iraqiya bloc is entangled in a turbulent crisis with Al-Maliki, said he had sent a letter to the US Congress urging the American legislators to bloc McGurk’s nomination on the basis that he was backing the Iraqi Shia leader. Allawi previously led the Iraqi National Accord in his US exile, a group which played a key role in making the case for invading Iraq in 2003 and toppling the Sunni-dominated regime led by former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein…………”

Allawi is the Saudis’ second most favorite man in Iraq. Okay, he is the favorite Shi’a of the Saudi princes and even the Wahhabi mufti might accept him in he has to. Hence, no doubt his opposition is coordinated with the House of Saud, who are also undoubtedly pissed at McGurck for the same reasons.
Allawi is playing the Netanyahu game: he is trying to provoke the U.S. Congress to act against the President of the United States. Only Allawi, being a Ba’athist, is playing dirtier, addressing the Congress directly to block a president’s nominee.
Come to think of it, Allawi to the Saudis is like Omar Suleiman of Egypt to the Saudis. They are/were both the favorite candidates of the princes to rule in Iraq and Egypt. In Iraq the plot to reinstate the former Ba’ath Party failed because of the divisions within Iraq, and it looks like it will also fail in Egypt.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Baghdad Summit, GCC, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy

Baghdad’s Syrian Summit: an Absurd Qatari Message, Poised Saudi Tanks but no Huthis…………..

    

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“Arab leaders on Thursday urged a swift and peaceful solution to the crisis in Syria at a landmark summit in Baghdad, with Iraq’s premier warning that arming rival camps there would lead to a “proxy war.” Nuri al-Maliki’s remarks highlighted the split in the Arab League, with hardliners Qatar and Saudi Arabia calling for Assad to step down and for rebels opposing his regime to be supplied with weapons, while others including Iraq are pushing for political reconciliation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia were among Gulf countries that largely snubbed the summit, with the two countries only sending envoys to the first Arab meet to be held in the Iraqi capital in more than 20 years. Doha said its decision was a “message” to Iraq………..”

Possibly the Iraqis and the real situation on the ground in Syria may have pushed the Arab League to come out against foreign intervention. The Syrian opposition, no matter how much of the population it represents, seems unable to coordinate let alone unify. The nominal leaders of the SNC are now purely symbolic ambassadors of anti-regime forces. It is the various armed groups that call the shots inside Syria and they are even more divided than ever.
Baghdad also represented its own message to the summit: where else are the consequences of Western intervention and liberation more dramatic than in Iraq? Then the leaders meeting in Western-liberated Iraq also had “Western-liberated” Libya in mind, where small battles rage every day between militias in different cities of the country. They know that Libya was liberated by NATO, not by the rebels nor by Qatar or the UAE who between them don’t have enough citizens to from a medium-sized army.
As for Qatar sending a “message to Iraq”: with all respect, some of our GCC regimes are silly, nearly absurd, in fact ridiculous (and I am not talking about Bahrain only although that regime is the mot ridiculous). Qatar probably has a couple of hundred thousand citizens (and a lot more temporary foreign laborers), and yet it is sending ‘messages’ right and left. The only country that the Qatar potentates have to truly fear is Saudi Arabia which tried at least once (late 1990s) to overthrow its current emir through yet another coup. Qatar probably needs to send a “message” toward Riyadh, if anywhere. Brotherly, or is it sisterly, Saudi Wahhabi tanks are as close to Doha as they were to Manama a year ago. They may have been defeated by the Huthis in Yemen, but the road to Doha is smooth with no ragtag Huthis to stop them.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Bahrain, Culture, GCC, Iraq, Saudi Arabia

Gulf Hypocrisy: on the Arab Identity of Iraq and the GCC……………

    

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On the eve of the Baghdad Arab summit, much of Gulf media have taken to questioning the identity of the new Iraq. Actually that is something they have been doing since 2006. They talk of Iraq being under a dual occupation (meaning American and Iranian). They talk of such an Iranian influence that the Arab identity of Iraq is in question. Even the lousy Salafists have joined this chorus. So, I sat and went over some statistics, not all 100% accurate but at least reasonable “ballpark” figures. Just to see in what country is the “Arab” identity threatened:

In Iraq, almost 100% of the population speak Arabic as a first (or strong fluent second) language. That includes Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Assyrians, and others.
In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, at least one third of the population does not speak Arabic (these are imported laborers and housemaids imported from South and Southeast Asia and Africa).
In Bahrain, more than 40% of the population does not speak Arabic (these include laborers, housemaids and security mercenaries imported by the regime).
In Qatar, something like 80% are foreigners, mostly non-Arabs. That means that more than a majority of the population does not speak Arabic. In London, a Qatari academic has taken to writing articles lamenting the loss of the Arab identity of Iraq.
In the United Arab Emirates, something like 80% (probably more) of the population are imported foreign laborers and housemaids. These people speak no Arabic. About two weeks ago one UAE academic wrote in al-Quds al-Arabi about the “occupation” of Iraq by Americans and Iranians. Has he looked at his own country? The UAE has American, British, French and until recently Canadian military bases. Hell, they’d offer bases to Monaco and Bruni if these principalities would only accept.
Oman may have the least population ‘imbalance’, but I am not sure of the figure, yet. (This is a quickie posting)
End of the story, for now.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Politics, Baghdad Summit, Corruption, Iraq

Baghdad: A Sleepy Arab Summit in an Explosive City……………..

    

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This week, the only interesting news in Baghdad will be unwelcome type: it will most likely come in the form of terrorist bombings by foreign Salafis from across the sisterly Arab borders.
The Arab summit in Baghdad is hardly worthy of its name. Most top Arab leaders are either staying away or haven’t taken office in their own countries yet. Others like Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain are still trying to put down popular uprisings. In fact most Arab summits in recent decades have been frustrating affairs. The only redeeming value used to be the entertainment provided by the predictably unpredictable speeches of the late Mu’ammar Qaddafi and occasional reactions to them. With Qaddafi gone, Arab summits will now probably become as boring as GCC summits (can’t get more boring than that now that the Brezhnev Politbureau is gone). I hope I am wrong, but early signs are not encouraging.
This editor of Asharq Alawsat
 (Saudi semi-official daily) ties the success of the summit with internal Iraqi politics, with how the al-Maliki government deals with pro-Saudi elements inside Iraq. This is not to say that al-Maliki is right: nobody in Iraq is right these days and corruption is as rife there as in Saudi Arabia, except it is not as organized and with less decorum. Besides, the new Iraqi potentates had been in exile for years and need to make up or lost time: that may explain the quick spread of corruption and at different strata of society. I imagine spending decades in exile in Tehran or Damascus wasn’t much fun (these cities are not at the top of my list even for someone who is not in exile).
Under the Baath regime corruption was confined to Saddam Hussein’s family and friends and upper party leaders. Sort like it is in Saudi Arabia now where major corruption is confined to princes and potentates and their retainers and agents. The new Iraqi corruption is more in the open and more “egalitarian”, it has seeped to the lower levels of society. In Reagan-esque terms; it has trickled down to the middle classes. What is dangerous about that is that it is becoming a sort of entitlement for a wider swath of society and harder to get rid of.
As for corruption at the top: that can be stopped by an order from the king or dictator. Unless he is overthrown first.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Politics, Baghdad Summit, Iraq, Salafi, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy

Imperiled Hegemony: the Baghdad Summit and Saudi Arabia’s Iraqi Dilemma……….

    

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“Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, an ethnic Kurd and the chief architect of the Baghdad summit, beamed Monday as he counted down the hours to what he bills as a historic moment: Iraq reclaiming its place in the Arab world after years of isolation during the U.S.-led military occupation and its spinoff sectarian war. For the past several summits, Zebari weathered the snubs and slights of Arab rulers, who openly questioned the legitimacy and sovereignty of the Iraqi government because it’s dominated by Iranian-backed Shiite Muslims and Kurds, and was formed in the shadow of Western occupiers. Now, however, the U.S. military is gone, and many of those skeptical Arab leaders have either been overthrown or forced into humbling reforms after the Arab Spring uprisings of last year. With the Arab League so heavily invested in the outcomes of revolts in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Tunisia and — most urgently — Syria, member countries are expected to use the conference to discuss their limited options for containing the regional crises now spilling across borders………”

Iraq has always been a dilemma for the al-Saud, an unwelcome presence in the Arab fold. The Baathist regime under Saddam Hussein flirted with the Saudis for eight years as it fended off Iranian counterattacks. The Saudis and the GCC financed and armed Saddam’s regime for eight years of war, as did the West. Yet the Saudis have always been wary of Iraq since before the Republic was established in 1958, actually since long before then. There are several reasons why the al-Saud do not welcome return of Iraq to the Arab fold:


  • Iraq is (potentially) a powerful rival for regional political dominance between the Jordan River and the Iranian border and southward. It is the most populous and potentially richest country in the Arab east. The total Saudi population is less than one half that of Iraq (taking into account that more than one third of the Saudi population are temporary foreign laborers and housemaids). For almost thirty years Iraq was preoccupied with Baathist-provoked wars. The Saudis have had unrivaled domination of the lower tier of the eastern Arab world during that time. That period might also be coming to an end, if the Iraqis can liquidate their Arab al-Qaeda terrorist guests and reconcile with each other politically. Reports indicate that Salafi terrorists are still infiltrating into Iraq from the Gulf GCC states and possibly Jordan, intent on murder. The Salafi terrorists’ assigned role is partly to keep Iraq off balance and too preoccupied with internal security to be involved in the region.
  • Iraq’s petroleum sector has been neglected for thirty years. It is beginning to revive, but will take some time to reach its potential. Iraqi reports now claim they are the second largest producers, overtaking Iran. Other reports also indicate that Iraqi reserves may have exceeded what Iran has. There is some speculation that eventually Iraqi reserves may exceed those of Saudi Arabia. Remember, Saudi output has been going full blast at 8-11 mb/d for decades, while Iraqi and Iranian output (and exploration) were hampered by wars and Western economic blockades. It is hard to give up the position of the biggest fish in the smaller Gulf pond. 
  • Politically the al-Saud never liked Iraq, but they like that country much less now that it has a Shi’a-dominated government. The Shi’a religious monuments and shrines in southern (and other parts of) Iraq have been targets of Saudi Wahhabi raiders since Ottoman days. The Wahhabi rulers of the Saudi Salafi theocracy may have distrusted and hated the previous Baathist rulers of Iraq, but they have nothing but ill will for the new ruling classes of Iraq. They, and some other GCC Gulf potentates, have behaved as if an entitlement was taken away from them, the entitlement that a Sunni Arab elite should continue to rule over 80+% of the rest of Iraqis (mainly Shi’a Arabs and Kurds and Turkmans). In other word, they would like Iraq to be like Bahrain.


The Saudis have don’t yet have a full ambassador in Baghdad, although last year they accredited their Amman ambassador to also cover Iraq. He will lead the Saudi delegation instead of the king or one of the princes. Syria also got the same treatment whey it hosted the Arab summit three or so years ago. The Arab League is a toothless mechanism, has been so since 1970. Its only relevance is when Western powers dust it off and show that the Arab League supports their actions in the MENA region (as in Libya, and almost in Syria).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Iraq, Syria, US Foreign Policy

American-Iranian Tug of War over Iraqi Skies and Syria………

    

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“The first major test of U.S. post-war influence in Iraq is now raging over efforts to stop Iran from funneling arms to Syria through Iraqi airspace, but the Iraqis are either unwilling or unable to assure the United States the shipments will cease. Last week, the Washington Times reported that the Iraqi government was refusing to halt Iranian cargo flights to Syria that fly over Iraqi airspace, despite the fact that U.S. officials believe the flights carry massive and illegal shipments of arms to aid President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which is murdering civilians by the thousands in its struggle to keep power. Publicly, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has stated the shipments contain “humanitarian goods, not weapons.” However, U.S. officials aren’t buying that excuse, and have been repeatedly pressing Maliki behind the scenes to make Iran halt the arms shipments, with limited if any success……….”

No doubt the Iranians are sending some weapons and equipment to Syria, among other things they send to help the Assad regime. Yet whatever Iran sends by air pales in comparison to what the Syrians get by sea from the Russian fleet based on the Syrian coast. Which always puzzled me: the Russians can and do provide much better weapons to Syria from safe sea routes (Black Sea to Mediterranean). And they can ship real heavy equipment and armor by sea. Whatever the Iranians provide must be small change, unless the Russians have decided to stop or restrict their Syrian arms shipments, and there is no so indication of that yet. So why all the fuss about smaller Iranian shipments? Could it be political rather than of any military value? Yes, it could, it could.
The Iraqis would love to get their hands on sophisticated warplanes to replace their old Baath air force that was destroyed, ironically, by the United States. This is a bargaining chip the Obama administration can use, may be using. On the other hands, there are other suppliers willing to supply the Iraqis with warplanes, but these are not as good as American brands. These are the variables. Oh, and there is an Arab ‘summit’ scheduled for Baghdad soon which the Iraqis would like to succeed and some neighborly Arabs would love to fail.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Is It Payback Time for Yukiya Amano Cheney? the IAEA Tehran Deception…………..

    

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“The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the nuclear watchdog at the heart of the growing Iranian crisis, has been accused by several former senior officials of pro-western bias, over-reliance on unverified intelligence and of sidelining sceptics. In November, it published an unprecedented volume of intelligence pointing towards past Iranian work on developing a nuclear weapon, deeming it credible. However, some former IAEA officials are saying that the agency has gone too far. Robert Kelley, a former US weapons scientists who ran the IAEA action team on Iraq at the time of the US-led invasion, said there were worrying parallels between the west’s mistakes over Iraq’s supposed weapons of mass destruction then and the IAEA’s assessment of Iran now. “Amano is falling into the Cheney trap….”……… The acrid taste left by the election was heightened by the US diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks which revealed Amano’s assiduous courting of American support. In an October 2009 cable, the US charge d’affaires, Geoffrey Pyatt, wrote: “Amano reminded [the] ambassador on several occasions that he would need to make concessions to the G-77 [the developing countries group], which correctly required him to be fair-minded and independent, but that he was solidly in the US court on every key strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program.”………..”


To me it has always sounded like déjà vu all over again (as the baseball man said). Like the buildup to the Iraq war (that I supported). Domestic American right-wing pressure, Israeli pressure, Arab princes applying pressure, shadowy exiles making wild claims, terrible intelligence (George Tenet’s “slam dunk), even more terrible analysis and interpretation of the terrible intelligence. It is so similar, almost a breathtaking repeat of the exact same steps. Then the years of demonization and Hitler-izing the prospective enemy. It is amazing how most people are not recalling that earlier deception of 2002-2003.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Iraq, Racism, Syria

Kurds of Syria and Iraq: Victims of Baathist Racism and Chauvinism……….

 

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“Syria’s Kurds appear divided and unsure whether to join the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad as they marked the anniversary of bloody clashes between the Kurdish minority and security forces in 2004. Syria’s Kurds live mostly in the north-eastern border region with Iraq and Turkey, and make up 10-15% of the population. For decades the authorities have discriminated against the Kurds for fear that they might seek self-determination. Many were denied citizenship under a controversial law in the early 1960s………”


Both branches of the Baath Party early on showed signs of racism and chauvinism, something borrowed from the European Fascism and Nazism that influenced the early creators of that party (Michel Aflaq and Salah al-Bitar, both Syrian). Syria’s Kurdish community have been a long-time victim of Ba’athist Nazi-like chauvinism and racism. Just as Iraq’s Kurds were long victims of Ba’athist tribal racism and genocide. No wonder the Kurds are insecure and not sure which side to join. The most likely sad fact is that both sides in Syria were likely racist and chauvinistic toward them (not that the other Syrians had anything special to feel superior about; they certainly did not).
The Kurds in Iraq could not be denied citizenship because there are too many of them in their own historic national homeland, and they probably have been there longer than the Arab tribes.
 
The Iraqi Baath regime also deported a couple of hundred thousand Iraqi Shi’as from the South in the early 1980s, sending them across the Iranian border. That was a big mistake: these Iraqis married and multiplied while in Iranian exile and grew to probably close to two million. And they are fluent in both Arabic and Persian, with tight family and cultural links across the border. And they are all back in Iraq now. Big stupid Baathist mistake, but then who said the Ba’ath are any smarter than other despotic Arab regimes?
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria

Year of the Baathists: Iraq and Syria, Nasser and the Kings………….

 

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“On the surface, in fact, the Syrian affair was much milder and less bloody than most Arab revolts. In the past 15 years, the Middle East has been continually shaken like a kaleidoscope, constantly falling into new patterns. There have been two sizable wars and fully two dozen armed uprisings and rebellions………  It was quite clear last week that the latest shake of the kaleidoscope resulted in new patterns and alignments overwhelmingly favorable to Gamal Abdel Nasser. The Syrian revolution was the third in six months by rebels pledged to make common cause with Egypt. Flights of new leaders poured into Cairo for tear-stained embraces with Nasser and nightlong conferences on the future course of that misty concept called Arab unity. Nasser stands at the pinnacle of prestige, if not of power, and the shadow he casts has never been longer. Today, it falls over the entire Arab world from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean………….For the first time in 500 years, the three key Arab states of Egypt, Iraq and Syria have a similar political posture and are on close and friendly terms……….  The monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Jordan—close friends of the West but hated enemies of the Arab nationalists—face the threat of uprisings at the hands of powerful local friends of the man in Cairo…………”


The Iraqi Ba’athists had a taste of power for the first time that year, but it did not last. They were kicked out of the government by their allies, the  Aref brothers who established their own dynasty. The Arefs had been pardoned by leader of the 1958 revolution, Za’eem (General) Abdel Karim Qassim after they had tried to overthrow him. He saved their lives from the executioner, but they went on plotting against him in freedom. He was overthrown by a Ba’athist and Aref alliance that initiated its own bloodbath in Iraq. Aref did not return the favor to Qassim but had him machine-gunned without a trial. Soon he managed to get rid of the Ba’ath, and when he died in a helicopter crash (a favorite way for Iraqi potentates to die) his brother took over until 1968. The second Aref was overthrown by the Ba’athists who killed off almost anybody who could challenge them and they ruled until April 2003.
The Syrian Ba’athists never lost power after March 1963. They had several strongmen who led the Party that ruled Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s father was the last one and the strongest of them, and he arranged for his son to take over when he died. What will happen to Bashar? We shall see: the consensus in the West and among many Arabs was that he was a gonner, but that was last month. The outlook may have changed these past two weeks. The era of the absolute Arab dictator is finished, soon to be followed by the end of the absolute tribal monarch (do you hear me, your majesties?.
Cheers
mhg


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