Category Archives: Iran

Nuclear Theocratic Powers of the Middle East and Beyond…….

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Particularly worrisome in the Saudi case is the potential departure from the Gold Standard established by the UAE 123 agreement. If, as has been suggested, the Saudi agreement is concluded without an accompanying commitment to abjure reprocessing and enrichment technologies, there could be profound consequences for the administration’s nonproliferation objectives and for the long-term stability of the Middle East. Although Saudi Arabia has not previously been judged to be a proliferation threat, as it “lacks the technological expertise, industrial base, and disciplined commitment required to develop an indigenous weapons capacity,” recent developments may have altered this assessment. The alacrity with which the United States dispensed of its long-standing support for the regime of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak no doubt gave pause to the House of Saud, which continues – 30 years later – to be troubled by American abandonment of the Shah on the eve of the Iranian revolution. Nor is Saudi threat perception likely to be relieved by the regional meddling of its frequent ideological competitor. This is to say nothing of the Kingdom’s concerns regarding Iranian weaponization. Indeed, Saudi Arabia appears increasingly unnerved by the trajectory of the Iranian program, a trend that can be seen in the country’s shifting characterizations of its own nuclear ambitions. ……..

  • There are fears that Saudi Arabia may try and shift any nuclear program toward military use. In fact that is exactly what Prince Turki al-Faisal warned about last month. There is now this fear, but the difference is that the Saudis will need American (and maybe other) help in any nuclear plan they have.

  • There are, there have been, fears of the Iranian nuclear program. These fears are based on possibilities that the Iranian may be trying to either build nuclear weapons or, more likely, reach the point ehre they can build nuclear weapons.

  • Then there is Israel. Everyone knows that Israel has many nuclear warheads, although no one can prove it. Israel is not a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), hence it is not under any Western pressure to allow international (IAEA) inspection.
  • Pakistan has several nuclear weapons, and it is not an NPT signatory either. Pakistan was created as a quasi-theocratic state: it was carved up as an Islamic state from parts of India. The country has been veering toward fundamentalism and back over its history. It may be closer now than at any other time.


What do all these West and South Asian countries have in common? No, not the geographic proximity. They are all either declared theocracies, undeclared theocracies, quasi-theocracies, or threatened theocracies. They are all within one of these categories I noted above. Scary, no? (The United States is not a theocracy, although the Tea Party and other elements would like it to be and try to push it that way).
Cheers
mhg




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The Real Battle for Iran and Arabia: Tribe and Nation and Islam……….

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The people of the ancient Persian Empire, which in 500 BC stretched from the Indus as far as Libya and the Black Sea, are believed to have celebrated the Persian New Year festival at Persepolis with their ruler. In recent years, modern Iranian families have also started to gather here to celebrate Nowruz, the festival that marks the start of spring, camping on the roadside for miles around. Some 100,000 people visit Persepolis every year. Twenty years ago it was around 8,000…….. “My son,” Darius wrote in his testament, “pray always to God, but never force anyone to follow your faith. Always bear in mind that all people should be free and may follow their own faith and conviction.”……. However, what is more significant than the bad economic situation is the lack of exciting new ideas, the inability of the clerical nomenklatura to propose new objectives, ones for which people would be prepared to be patient and make sacrifices. Instead, the orthodoxy is fighting a paralysing battle to maintain its hard-won position. One man has realised how dangerous this intellectual wasteland could be for the regime, and he has now become one of the figures most hated and feared by the conservatives: Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, President Ahmadinejad’s friend and chief of staff. Should a theocracy, of all forms of government, be permitted to rely solely on practical power – in this case, armed troops and the secret service – and do without spirituality and visions for the future? At present, the Green Movement is seen as representing people’s dreams of a better future, and the Sufis, who are also combated by the orthodoxy, as the locus of spirituality. Mashaei is feeling his way towards filling the ideological gap with a mixture of rationality and re-ideologisation. He has declared political Islam to be obsolete and its most important symbol, the hijab or veiling of the female body, to be a woman’s free decision. Statements like these are taboo……….

This is not just an Iranian issue, this dichotomy between ethnicity/nationalism and Islam. Islamists across the Middle East have been pushing the idea that “national” identity does not matter, that Islam rules supreme. It is almost a throwback to the European pre-nationalism days a few centuries ago. Yet in reality people identify themselves by other things first: nation, ethnicity, even tribe (as in Africa and Saudi Arabia). In some ‘special’ places like Lebanon people are identified by their faith and sect: Shi’a, Sunni, Maronite, Orthodox, Armenian, etc. Yet there are so many sects that people always identify themselves as Lebanese in the end, especially vis-à-vis the outside world. The ongoing Arab uprisings, from North Africa to the Gulf have tended to strengthen this “national” identity: be it Tunisian, Egyptian, Syrian, Bahraini, etc or just “Arab”. The revolutions of 2011 are called “Arab” revolutions all across the region, never the “Islamic” revolutions. The Iranian mullahs and Arab Salafis (of the Saudi school of thought) have tried to push an Islamic “identity” on the uprisings, each for their own purposes, but it is not working.
Iranians will always be Iranians first and Muslims (or Zaroastrians or Christians) afterwards. Egyptians will always be Egyptians first and Muslims or Copts afterwards. Saudis, somewhat like the Lebanese, are different: they still identify themselves with their individual tribes first, before being “Saudi” or even “Arab” or Muslim. Even the Taliban consider themselves Pushtun first, then Afghans, (or Pakistani?), then Muslims. Most, nay all, Salafis of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula identify themselves with their tribes first, even as they outwardly push an “Islamist” agenda.
The issue may look somewhat different in Europe, with the growing racism and the difficulties of assimilation and the mosque becoming a spiritual and social refuge in “exile”. Besides, to use a cliche, all Muslims may look the same to many Europeans.
Cheers
mhg




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Joke of the Day: Tony Blair Preaches on Morality………….

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Iran must not be allowed to develop its nuclear program, Quartet envoy Tony Blair said Tuesday during a panel discussion as part of the three-day Israeli Presidential Conference in Jerusalem. “If we allow Iran to develop nuclear capabilities, there will be consequence, therefore we must not let that happen,” Blair said.…… During the panel discussion entitled, “Nation, Interests and Ethics in the Journey Toward Tomorrow,” Blair said he sees Israel as a model for the region. “Through it’s (sic) belief in the creativity and endeavor of the human spirit, Israel can be seen for what it is as a country of hope and human values,” he said. Commenting on moral decisions that leaders must take, Blair said “If we fail to intervene where people are being killed, that is a decision that has consequences,” and gave Sierra Leone as an example. …….

Regardless of the Iran issue, Blair hardly has any claim to morality. During the Egyptian uprising in January-February, Tony (the Poodle) Blair famously said something like “we should try and manage the Egyptian uprising”. Now his petroleum princes are trying to take his advice and manage the Egyptian and other revolutions (Libya, Syria, Yemen). They are also trying to kill other Arab uprisings (Bahrain, Jordan). Speaking of “morality: it has not been Tony Blair’s strong suit for many years now.
Cheers
mhg




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Tehran Holds Counter-Terrorism Conference: United States Unlikely to Attend……..

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High-ranking officials from more than 60 countries, including several heads of state, have accepted Iran’s invitation to attend the Global Campaign against Terrorism Conference, conference secretary general Bahman Taherian-Mobarakeh stated at a press conference in Tehran on Monday. The conference is scheduled to be held in the Iranian capital from June 25 to 26. Taherian-Mobarakeh stated that the United Nations, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, the Asia Cooperation Dialogue, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Economic Cooperation Organization, and Interpol are among the international and regional organizations which have been officially invited to send representatives to the conference. He said that the list of officials who plan to participate in the conference will be released later. However, Taherian-Mobarakeh did not name the countries which have decided to send representatives to the conference. It is expected that more countries will announce their interest in attending the event ………Mehr News

Shouldn’t they know by now who or what and from where is attending ?
This whole thing is mysterious: nobody knows who will attend from where. I know one thing: the United States government will not be represented at this meeting. I also know at least one other country that will not be represented. But then it all depends on one’s definition of ‘terrorism’: the countries that claim to be the most concerned with ‘terrorism’ will not be attending. Most likely al-Qaeda will not attend, nor will George W. Bush or Dick Cheney.
I also suspect that most terrorists will not attend.
Cheers
mhg




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On Iran, Egypt, Arab Revolutions, and Military Power……….

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told the media that restoring relations between his country and Egypt has been going slow because Iran “understands” the immense pressures being put on Egypt. He said Egyptians seem to need more time because of those external pressures. Relations were expected to resume quickly but seem to have been delayed after an intense campaign both private and public by Saudi (and UAE) authorities on Egypt. It is possible that the U.S administration also has had a hand through its close ties with Egypt’s ruling military junta. Egypt has been trying to walk a fine line between a desire to resume relations with Tehran and a natural inclination of its military rulers to maintain close ties with the Saudis. Saudi Arabia announced a US$ 4 billion aid package for Egypt a few weeks ago, and the country aspires to attract much investment from the Gulf GCC states.
Clearly Egyptian authorities are worried about the economy as tourism took a hit during the early stages of the revolution. The revolution itself may not be over in Egypt, depending on how much power the military junta decides to keep. It is wise for the young and others who flocked to Tahrir Square to remain alert: a revolution needs its owners to speak up and assert control of it, otherwise others, like the fundamentalist Islamists or the military or a combination of the two, will take over. In the case of Iran (1979) the mullahs were clever enough to liquidate the Shah’s military officer corps before turning their attention to their political rivals. They paid a price for liquidating the Shah’s military during the first year of the Iraqi invasion.
In the Middle East, especially in Arab states, the military has traditionally been aggressive in usurping political power during pre-revolutionary times. Even the bloodthirsty Ba’athists came to power on top of tanks in both Iraq (1963, 1968) and Syria (1963). Even though the Communist Party of Iraq traditionally had much more support, the Ba’ath managed to take power because it had so many Ba’athists from Takrit and points west in the military. Actually, the Shi’a Hawza in Iraq inadvertently helped the Ba’ath gain power through attacks on the communists whom it saw as the real threat in Iraq. As it turned out, the real threat were the Ba’athists who clung to power for 35 years, provoked two major wars, and were dislodged by American (and British) forces in 2003.
Cheers
mhg




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Iran: the Saga of Ali and Mahmoud Continues………….

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However, the swiftness of Ahmadinejad’s fall and the degree of invective — charges against his entourage have ranged from sorcery to treason — are shocking even to those inured to Iran’s brutally personal politics. This may reflect in part the pressure the regime is facing in areas ranging from foreign policy — where ally Syria is struggling to contain mass protests — to the anemic, sanctions-plagued economy. Growth this year will be flat, according to Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a specialist on the Iranian economy at Virginia Tech. Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii, thinks that Ahmadinejad has basically been given a choice: submit or be removed. Given the president’s history, she said, “I can only assume that if he is to go down, he will make sure that it is as painful as possible for everyone concerned……..”

Ahmadinajd is the child of the Islamic Revolution and its regime: he is attached to it from his modest roots, from his military service in the Iran-Iraq war which aimed to abort the revolution, and from his association with the IRGC. What has occurred in recent weeks, indeed in recent months, is partly rivalry over power and partly divergent outlooks on how to perpetuate the regime.
Unlike his predecessors, Ahmadinejad has not been too shy to test the limits of his power, as allowed by the clergy who control the theocracy. Perhaps it is partly because he is the first non-clerical president since the very early years, and the only one to last a whole term (and beyond). There were two other civilian presidents: Bani-Sadr, the very first president, fled into exile after less than two years, the other one was quickly blown up to bits by a bomb. Ahmadinejad has been testing the limits through ministerial appointments and firings, with partial success.

There is also an “ideological” component to his dispute with the clergy. The Clergy tend to believe that they are the only true guardians of the system, of the theocracy. They are, of course, quite right. Lately Ahmadinejad apparently has had an epiphany on how to save the republic from itself. He knows what some of the clergy may not know: that many people in Iran are unhappy with the regime as it is (an understatement). He believes he knows how to fix that. It is the old story of balancing ideology with what people want, with a dose of non-Islamic nationalism added. The mullahs, being mullahs, believe otherwise. The president has allies, even among some silent clergy. It is very likely as the article up there hints that he will continue to test the limits; that is his personality.
The next two years, his last in office, should be very interesting in Iranian politics. They will probably be much more interesting than the elections of 2013, especially if the mullahs insist on limiting the field of candidates. The TV debates have apparently become part of Iranian politics now, and they should provide at least one interesting aspect of the 2013 elections.
Cheers
mhg





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Pictorial: How to Apply for a Job on the Gulf………

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How to apply for a job in Bahrain, and who to apply to:


Applying in Bahrain (left)

          
Applying in Iran                                                  Applying in Saudi Arabia

     
The honorable way in Bahrain                 Different way (Jacko & the ruler)  

Cheers
mhg



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Iranian Mullahs and the Beauty of Satellite Dishes…………

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Iranian police have launched a new crackdown on satellite dishes which, although illegal, are still a common sight on rooftops across the Islamic republic. Tehran police confiscated more than 2,000 satellite dishes in a single day last week in a battle against receivers which let Iranians see a huge range of uncensored entertainment and international news not available on state-controlled channels. “The police’s priority is first to confiscate dishes which are visible … and confront the owners,” Tehran-e Emrouz daily quoted Tehran’s deputy police chief Ahmadreza Radan as saying……..

Iranian mullahs allow their women to continue driving cars and ride motorcycles. But they hate satellite dishes for the openness to the world that come with them. The Saudis are more open about international media than the Iranians: satellite dishes are not banned anymore (three fourths of the population would go crazy without them and may pour out into the streets of Riyadh and Jeddah and cause major trouble). There was a time when Wahhabi nuts, the religious police, went around trying to destroy satellite dishes, but that was in the past. There a was a time, up to the early 1990s, when satellite dishes were banned in other GCC Gulf states as well. But the Persian Gulf War (1990/91) and the CNN coverage of it put an end to that. In my hometown, I don’t recall any new law allowing satellite dishes after 1991, just as I don’t recall any law banning them before that. It was just government fiat. Satellite dishes, that were once exclusively used by potentates, suddenly became commonplace.
The official position seems to be: Iranian mullahs know they can’t ban dishes, they are just trying to make them less visible on rooftops. The logic is not a logical one, since everyone knows they are there, everyone has them, and the mullahs have them as well. Maybe it is the aesthetics they care about.
It is a losing battle that they should give up, just as their neighbors on the Gulf did many years ago. After all, anyone can watch television channels over the Internet, and Iran cannot ban the Internet: the mullahs would have a true revolution of the young (and the old) on their hands if they did. So, give it up Ali and Mahmoud: it is a losing battle.
Cheers
mhg




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Iranian 9/11, Jewish Barbarossa, Tooth Fairy of Qandahar………..

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Former investigators on the 9/11 Commission, which uncovered tantalizing but inconclusive evidence of Tehran’s ties to the plot, tell The Daily Beast they welcome the lawsuit, because they believe the U.S. government has done little to follow up on the commission’s evidence of Iranian complicity. The lawsuit, they say, may offer the best hope of getting to the truth about whether Iranian government officials had advance knowledge of the plot and worked with al Qaeda to make it easier for several of the hijackers to travel undetected in the year before the attacks. The suit, brought in the United States District Court in Manhattan on behalf of the families of dozens of 9/11 victims, is promising testimony from three Iranian defectors, all of them identified as former members of Iran’s central spy agency, who will implicate Iran and its terrorist proxies in Lebanon in the Sept. 11 attacks. In court papers filed last week that outlined their testimony, the defectors were not identified by name out of concern for their safety, said Thomas Mellon, a Pennsylvania lawyer and former federal prosecutor who is representing the families…………

I don’t know: this is like saying that the German Nazis were financing or plotting with the Jewish Agency to take over Palestine. Or that European Jews planned Operation Barbarossa (look it up). The mutual dislike and contempt between Shi’a Iran and Salafi Wahhabi al-Qaeda is that strong. This Thomas Mellon sounds like another D.A. Jim Garrison (google him and Kennedy and Dallas and Louisiana). It is not clear what they needed the Iranians for. They got all the money and leaders and volunteers from Saudi Arabia (with a couple of others). They had the planners in Afghanistan and Pakistan and Germany. As for the ‘Iranian defectors’ who will testify: I’d require blood tests on them first for alcohol, drugs, airplane glue, among other ‘substances’.

Okay, the truth is, I think it is the most ridiculous, nay most asinine, story I have read today. More ridiculous than the story about the prime minister of Bahrain, butcher of Manama, wondering why people can’t just get along. I may be wrong, I am wrong one in a while, but probably not on this one.
Cheers
mhg




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Ahmadinejad on Water Wars, European Fears, and Emma Lazarus……….

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Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!
Emma Lazarus (definitely NOT Europeans)

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that Western countries are plotting to generate drought in some areas of the world, including Iran. “According to reports about climate, whose authenticity has been verified, the European countries have used certain equipment to discharge clouds and prevent rain-bearing clouds from reaching regional countries such as Iran,” President Ahmadinejad said on Thursday. He made the remarks in the inauguration ceremony of a domestically-built dam in the central Iranian province of Arak. Ahmadinejad said the matter would be pursued by Iran’s legal authorities, IRNA reported. The Iranian president said such measures by European countries are aimed at creating tension and hostility in the maritime borders of regional countries. “Just as it was said before, I believe that the war of the future will be the war over water.”……….

He is right in one thing although he is not original: that water will very likely become a cause of future conflict. It already is: from the water disputes between Egypt and Nile-source African countries to the ‘issues’ Iraq has with Iran and Turkey and Syria over control of river water. Even the long Iran-Iraq war which was a result of Ba’athist aggression had water as its main component: the Shatt al-Arab waterway. That is the part Ahmadinejad is right about.
As for the rest, I suspect he is out of his mind if he is serious about it. Europe has seen one result of the droughts and desertification in Africa: the waves of unwelcome immigrants crossing the Mediterranean. Europe is also now worried about the impact of the Arab revolutions on creating a new wave of immigration to its shores. The last thing the Europeans want is to create another drought in the Middle East with more immigrants creating more neo-Nazis like Geert Wilders and Le Pen and others. I am not sure about Sarkozy, though, playing Napoleon and a softer version of a racist Fascist, desperate for his reelection. (There is no European equivalent of Emma Lazarus and her immortal verses on Liberty Island).
Sometimes I think Ahmadinejad shoots his mouth without thinking, then is forced to stick to his announced position out of pride. It is a Middle East thing. I have suspected that his Holocaust “quasi-denial” is also along similar lines.
(Later a professor of environmental science at Tehran University politely but firmly refuted Ahmadinejad’s assertion of European-induced droughts).
Cheers
mhg




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