Category Archives: Iran

Arab Revolutions, Iran, Libya, Persian-American Gulf, Racism, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy

On Libyan Aid, al-Megrahi Mystery, Schumer’s Chutzpah , Iran Air 655, and Billions of Money ………….

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“Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is calling for a halt to U.S. aid to the new Libyan government if it refuses to re-arrest Abdel Baset al-Megrahi, who was convicted of planning the 1998(sic) bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. Schumer sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton today calling on the State Department not to help the National Transitional Council (NTC) — which is struggling to stand up a government in the wake of the fall of Muammar al-Qaddafi — with either direct aid or by giving them access to frozen Qaddafi funds, unless it jails Megrahi. “If the new Libyan government continues to shield this convicted terrorist from justice, then they should not get one more cent of support from the United States,” said Schumer. “We put American lives and money on the line to help the Libyan people secure their freedom. It’s time the Libyan government lives up to its commitment to create a free and accountable society by handing over al-Megrahi so that justice can finally be done.” Megrahi was released by the Scottish government in 2009 on compassionate grounds………….”
(Actually it was 1988 not 1998)

It is tempting to say that Chuck Schumer had chutzpah, but that would be an easy shot. He is well known for that in New York and Washington.
The Western deals were done with Qaddafi. Libya gave up its search for WMD, billions were paid to families of the victims, al-Meghrahi was released by the British government (which claimed it was the Scottish regime that released him), Qaddafi’s sons were feted at the U.S. State Department, etc, etc. That is not all: some Western, and pliant Arab, media even started a little campaign of rewriting history, reviving old reports of possible Syrian and/or Iranian and/or Hezbollah and/or al-Qaeda involvement. Woops, scratch out al-Qaeda: it did not exist in 1988.
Now, with the “compensation” blood money safely in the bank accounts, with Qaddafi on the run, with a new regime in London, there is talk of “repatriating” al-Megrahi back to his Scottish homeland. After all, the Western governments and their doctors were “duped” by the Libyan tin-horn dictator into believing that Megrahi was dying. They were promised that he would die within months! Can’t trust them Arabs, even after the billions of dollars you wheedle out of them in compensation (in Arabic it is called ‘diyya‘: blood money that the killer pays to avoid execution).

Which brings me to the curious case of Iran Air Flight 655, shot down over the Persian-American Gulf in August of 1988 by a U.S warship. It was flying from Iran to Dubai with 290 civilians on board, 66 of them children. All on board were killed. Not much compensation was paid for those civilian victims, nobody was jailed or even threatened with prison. The Iranians are not even whining nearly as much about it, or maybe they are but we don’t read about it or see in or CNN, Fox, etc. No interviews with teary relatives. Besides, they were all Middle Eastern people on Iran Air 655: mostly Iranians with a few Arabs and other expendables.
I bet nobody is willing to give back the money in exchange for sending Al Megrahi back to Britain.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Middle East, Water Wars

Iranians Protest for Water and the Environment ………….

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“There have been several demonstration in Tabriz, in the province of Eastern Ajerbaijan, and in Orumieh in the province of Western Azerbaijan. The police have used tear gas and plastic bullets to disperse the demonstrators. According to unconfirmed reports, dozens of people have been injured or arrested. ………The reason for the demonstrations has been the rapid deterioration of Lake Orumieh, which has been drying up, fueling strong reaction from Azerbaijanis and environmentalists alike. Emergency legislation proposed pumping a large volume of water into the lake, but was voted down in the Majles, also prompting angry protests by the deputies from the two Azerbaijan provinces as well as other provinces in the area. Jamshid Ansari, a reformist deputy from Zanjan, said that addressing the problem of Lake Orumieh is a national problem, and if not addressed properly, 18 of Iran’s provinces will be negatively affected. Twenty-two Majles deputy have written a letter to Majles Speaker Ali Larijani stating that the government must take responsibility for the political, social, and economic consequences of Lake Orumieh’s deteriorating state..…………”

A first in the Middle East, as far as I know: a protest that has to do with water and an environmental issue. This type of protest doesn’t get as much coverage outside Iran, mainly because it ‘supposedly’ doesn’t make a direct political point. But it does. It gives us a brief look into two serious future Middle East issues: water and the environment (and pollution). Many people, but not most are aware of the water issue. Hardly anybody worries about the environment.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria

Is Iran Hedging on Syria? Saving Assad from his Party…………….

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“Iran, Syria’s closest ally, called on the government in Damascus to recognize its people’s “legitimate” demands on Saturday, in the first such remarks to come from the Persian country since the five-month-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad started. Although the remarks, by Iran’s foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, did not advocate any specific changes, they were the first public sign of growing unease with the crisis in Syria — even as Iran has maintained an unyielding crackdown on its own dissenters. Other governments in the region are increasingly worried that the crisis could spill beyond Syria’s borders…………….”

A little late, but not too late: maybe they see something new. This is a serious development for Syria. Iran is the last ally left, other than Hezbollah. The Iranians see the writing on the wall, but the Syrian regime does not. The Iranians worry about a “Libyan” solution for Syria whereby Nato forces (Turks and others) would interfere, with the help and alibi provided by a couple of Gulf states like UAE and/or Qatar (other Arab countries are smarter than intervening in a bloody civil strife). Now if one day Hezbollah surprises everyone and comes out and calls on the Syrians to respect the rights of their people………
Cheers
mhg


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Economics, Finance, Gulf states, Iran, Iraq, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela

Petroleum Rivalries Turning OPEC Upside Down……….

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“Saudi Arabia’s government spending, flat since the last oil boom in the 1970s, is now rising at 10 percent or more annually. And it will rise faster still: The House of Saud’s survival instinct in the wake of the initial Arab revolutions led King Abdullah to announce $130 billion of largesse in February and March. The resulting increases in government employment and salaries can be cut only at the cost of more discontent. And that’s only what the kingdom is spending on its “counterrevolution” at home. Saudi Arabia will pay the lion’s share of the pledged $25 billion of Gulf Cooperation Council aid to Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Oman. With Iraq, Syria, and Yemen likely flashpoints yet to come, the bill will only increase. Already, nearly a third of the Saudi budget goes toward defense, a proportion that could rise in the face of a perceived Iranian threat. Meanwhile, fast-growing domestic demand poses a serious threat to oil-export revenues. The kingdom is one of the world’s least energy-efficient economies: With prices fixed at $3 per barrel for power generation and $0.60 per gallon of gasoline, Saudi Arabia needs 10 times more energy than the global average to generate a dollar of output. Subsidized natural gas, too, is in short supply, undermining an economic diversification drive focused on petrochemicals. As much as 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil are burned for electricity to meet summer air-conditioning demand, yet Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s second-largest city, still suffers frequent power cuts………This combination of higher spending and lower exports shortens Saudi Arabia’s time horizon. Usually considered, on shaky evidence, to be a “price moderate” within OPEC, the kingdom now requires $85 per barrel to balance its budget. That figure will rise to $320 by 2030………”

The problem for the Saudis is that long before the year 2030, both Iran and Iraq would have resumed full control of their oil fields. Iraqi and Iranian outputs have been disrupted by thirty years of war and revolution and Western sanctions, but that era of instability will end soon. Both countries threaten to overtake Saudi Arabia as OPEC’s main producer and possibly as ‘swing’ producers. Both have huge untapped resources and unconfirmed reserves (thirty years of instability takes its toll). Then there is Venezuela, which OPEC recently declared now has the largest oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia. It is almost certain that within a decade from now the heavy weights in OPEC will be three ‘ornery’ republics in addition to the Kingdom without Magic.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Israel, Libya, nuclear Iran

Kim Jong Qaddafi, Kim Jong Iraq, Kim Jong Iran………

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“Such sweet deals are no longer to be had in a world where all worker bees, even those wearing medals and epaulettes, with secret police at their disposal, get discarded like used tissue paper after their cost-benefit balance tips to the former. Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega languished in an American prison on trumped-up drug charges for 20 years before being extradited to France; Saddam got dropped down a trap door to the howling jeers of his rivals. One can easily imagine a call from North Korean tyrant Kim Jung-Il to Libya’s Colonel Gadhafi a few years back: “Don’t disarm, Muammar. Just you wait! The second you give up your nukes the Americans will take you out. Saddam disarmed in 1991; now he’s in a tacky grave in Tikrit. What did Milosevic get for attending the Dayton peace conference? A war crimes trial. Look at me. I don’t cooperate. I don’t give in. Sure, they hate me. But I’m holding tight. Living large. Cooperation with the Americans is a mug’s game!“…………..”

Raises a good point, n’est-ce pas. Saddam gave up his weapons of WMD, and where is he now? So did Qaddafi, and he is gone somewhere. Meanwhile Kim Jong-Il, Pakistan, Israel, India, etc have nuclear weapons and nobody is touching them. Is there a message in here somewhere for the Iranians?
(Okay, Israel doesn’t count here, since Israel is a “white” power).
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Sanctions

Iran’s Military-Industrial-Clergy Complex……..

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“Iran’s parliament approved President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s candidate as oil minister on Wednesday, putting a military commander who is under international sanctions in charge of production in the world’s fifth biggest crude exporter. A huge majority — 216 of the 246 lawmakers present — voted in favour of Rostam Qasemi, a Revolutionary Guards commander, a rare victory for Ahmadinejad who has been severely criticised by parliament in recent months. Qasemi takes control of the oil ministry as Iran holds the rotating presidency of OPEC where it has strongly resisted calls by more Western-friendly producers to increase output quotas. His most important task will be to stem declining output from Iran’s mature oil fields and develop vast gas resources where sanctions have restricted foreign investment…… The European Union put him on a sanctions list in July 2010, meaning he is not allowed to travel or hold assets in the EU.……….”

A strange appointment. Perhaps not his favorite candidate, but do-able in parliament. President Ahmadinejad initially appointed himself acting minister of oil, but Parliament objected. Gradually we are seeing veterans of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the new elites of Iran, get into prominent cabinet posts. Like China in recent decades, like Egypt under Sadat and Mubarak, like other militarized states, Iran’s IRGC is spreading its tentacles throughout the bureaucracy and the economy. A few decades ago U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower, on leaving office, warned of the military-industrial complex. His fear has been realized in a military-corporate-congressional complex. In Iran we are seeing a military(IRGC)-industrial-clergy complex that is dominating the economy (and the politics). Unfortunately.
For all its worth: this new minister will not be able to attend OPEC meetings in Vienna or anywhere else in the European Union. But that is okay, he won’t miss the ambiance of Vienna.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Economics, Egypt, Finance, Iran, North Africa

Arab Revolutions and Oligarchs: with a Little Help from their Friends…….

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“What would you think if I sang out of tune,

Would you stand up and walk out on me.

Lend me your ears and I’ll sing you a song,

And I’ll try not to sing out of key.

Oh I get by with a little help from my friends,

Mmm,I get high with a little help from my friends,

Mmm, I’m gonna try with a little help from my friends……..” The Beatles (also sung by Joe Cocker and Arab Oligarchs)

“It is hard to say for sure who took down the portrait of the revolution’s most famous martyr, Mohamed Bouazizi, from its perch atop a garish gold statue on the street where he set himself on fire, touching off a season of revolt across the Arab world. One man said unnamed counterrevolutionaries did it, and another man said it was damaged by rain. Mr. Bouazizi’s neighbors say it was taken down in disgust, several weeks ago, after his mother, uncle and siblings left Sidi Bouzid, an act the neighbors considered a betrayal……. But more than that, they said they were furious at being left behind, in a place with no jobs, money or hope, without the famous Bouazizis to give voice to their despair……. It is a measure of the deep frustration in Sidi Bouzid that a few people have lashed out at the town’s favorite son. That anger is misplaced, most residents say, blaming the lack of progress here on the transitional government, which has moved slowly to address one of the revolution’s central complaints — youth unemployment — especially here in the towns of central Tunisia, where the uprising began. The bitterness here stands in stark contrast to a guarded optimism elsewhere in Tunisia about the progress of the revolution, and it threatens to undermine the gains: Several times in the last few months, disputes over jobs have led to deadly episodes of violence……..In Tunisia, as in Egypt, the optimism fueled by a popular uprising has crashed into the cold reality that life has not quickly improved, and in many cases has even grown more challenging as economies stall and interim leaders struggle to build a new system……….”

The Tunisian revolution is still unfinished, anymore than the revolution in Egypt. In both countries long-term dictators were overthrown but their appointees, whether civilian or military, are trying to keep the old order in place. In Egypt the military is asserting its supreme power and it looks set to keep on playing a leading role no matter who wins the ‘election’. The military rulers are almost certainly looking to oversee a “soft democracy”, slightly more open than under Mubarak, perhaps with leaders having term limits as in Iran (but the power of the military in Egypt, like that of the clergy in Iran, will have no term limits). In Tunisia there is probably more consensus among the people about the future of the country, but real change will be hard.
 
Both countries will eventually look more to the IMF and World Bank for financial help and advice on how to manage their economies. The IMF and IBRD are the same institutions that funded and advised the old regimes: ergo, don’t hold your breath expecting anything new. Both countries will also look to the West for help and advice, look to the same insane deregulated economic/financial system that has driven us to the brink of another depression.
Then there are the Arab counterrevolutionaries, flush with cash, who did not wish for the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings to succeed but now seek to subvert them. Now the Arab absolute monarchs and their media are talking as if they were behind the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt the whole time. They are holding the line, these Arab counterrevolutionaries, in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain, and they are making sure it does not start elsewhere. With a little help from their friends.
Cheers
mhg


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Anti-Semitism, Arab Media, Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Racism, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Torquemada: Media Obsession with Jewish Roots……………

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You’d think Torquemada leads the royal Saudi media. Come to think of it the equivalents of Torquemada do run the media over there, and they run more than that. Thos obsession of the media, especially the semi-official Alarabiya TV which is almost official because it is managed by a royal prince although it is located offshore. Alarabiya is obsessed with the “Jewish” roots of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They report something on it every few months, sometimes every couple of weeks (I posted the last time they did it). They just did one today on their Arabic website (too clever to do it on the English version). I doubt that most people in Iran care either way what his “roots” are. I know the Al-Saud and their Anti-Semetic Wahhabi clergy care, as do their Anti-Semetic Salafi followers around the Gulf. Here they are allegedly quoting a website of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) repeating allegations about these roots and that for the first time the IRGC is paying attention and giving some credence to them. You’d think Alarabiya would be busy, along with its sister semi-official Asharq Alawsat (also royal-owned), disseminating counter-revolutionary messages against the Arab uprisings (which also threaten the theocracy in Iran as much as they threaten the theocratic oligarchy in the Arabian Peninsula). Maybe they are trying to rouse the Salafi faithful during this holy month of Ramadan, but there is no need: the Salafi of the Gulf region are a fully-owned and paid up subsidiary of Riyadh.
It would be interesting if all Arab leaders including the Saudi royals, as well as Iranian leaders, submit samples of their DNA to one of these laboratories that tell what ethnic/racial background they are from (and let’s throw in Mr. Netanyahu and Shaikh Al Al-Shaikh). Now that should be fun, even though it would be as meaningless as the stuff the crazy American “birthers” spread these days. In fact Alarabiya sometimes sounds like an offshoot of the birthers.
Cheers
mhg


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CIA, Espionage, Iran, Middle East Nuclear, Mossad

Another Unsolved Murder in Iran: Mystery of the Indispensable Nuclear Student………

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““Israel is not responding,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said earlier this week when asked if his country had been involved in the latest slaying of an Iranian nuclear scientist. It didn’t exactly sound like a denial, and the smile on his face suggested Israel isn’t too bothered by suspicions that it is responsible for a series of murders of physicists involved in the controversial Iranian nuclear program. There is little doubt in the shadowy world of intelligence agencies that Israel is behind the assassination of Darioush Rezaei. “That was the first serious action taken by the new Mossad chief Tamir Pardo,” an Israeli intelligence source told SPIEGEL ONLINE. On July 23, Rezaei became the latest victim in a mysterious series of attacks over the past 20 months which has seen the virtual decimation of the Islamic republic’s elite physicists. The 35-year-old died after being shot in the throat in front of his daughter’s kindergarten in east Tehran………According to the Associated Press, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna has since confirmed what had already been reported by the Israeli media — namely that the physics student had worked on the development of high-voltage switching systems, a key component that is crucial to setting off the explosions needed to trigger a nuclear warhead…………..”

Barak’s reaction does not necessarily mean the (post-Dubai) Mossad did it. Even the Der Spiegel “contacts” could be, almost certainly are, part of a campaign of misinformation. They Israelis may have been involved, or they may be protecting other Western governments (they have less to lose).
Yet I am not sure about this ‘scientist’. He was reported as an academic, then a scientist, then a student. The latest Iranian report claimed he was a student who was killed by mistake, that they mistook him for a scientist. The Israelis now say he was a student who was crucial for a high-voltage switching system, etc, etc. Maybe he was, maybe not. Both sides, nay all three sides, have an interest in fudging things, misleading everybody else. The Mossad, and the comparable Western services, also have an interest in not looking foolish, killing a student instead of a nuclear scientist (either one would be considered a terrorist action against a civilian in front of his family if committed in Israel or the West).
Cheers
mhg


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Economics, Iran, Iraq, nuclear wepoans, Sanctions, US Foreign Policy, Weapons deals

On Iraq Sanctions, Iran Sanctions, Cuba Sanctions, Smart Sanctions, Asinine Sanctions, ………….

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“Economic sanctions rarely hurt a disfavored regime or its powerful supporters, at least in the short run. They hurt those at the bottom of the ladder. This is a point that we Westerners, with our addiction to the imposition of sanctions to punish bad behavior, should take more seriously than we do………..  This has always been the problem with the West’s sanction addiction. Sanctions nip at those whose lives are already marginal…….. Dictators everywhere try to control the economy, to funnel resources to their friends……… In the case of Iran, the sanctions are manifestly failing, unless their point was to force the government to redistribute the wealth. The regime is proceeding with its nuclear weapons development, and may even be picking up the pace. Western experts differ on how close the regime is to completing its research. The head of Israeli military intelligence recently estimated that Iran may have the capacity to build at least one nuclear explosive device by next year. Things may change. The Iranian regime may give up its nuclear dreams, making the world that much safer, and, incidentally, handing the Obama administration a much-needed foreign-policy victory. But no matter the result in Iran, let us remember, the next time we debate the imposition of sanctions on a rogue state, exactly whom we are really punishing…………”

It is highly unlikely that the ruling Iranian mullahs (or any replacement regime) will suddenly give up their nuclear program anytime soon.
As for the forces behind economic sanctions: they are more complex than the writer notes. The famous sanctions against Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath regime in Iraq did not harm the dictatorship or its elites: it hurt the ordinary people. But these were broad wartime sanctions, not as selective or nuanced as what Iran “supposedly” faces currently. Then there are so-called smart sanctions that are as almost dumb as other sanctions, but maybe not as dumb as asinine sanctions. One reasonable definition of asinine sanctions is that they are the kind that neoconservatives usually prefer. A good example of asinine sanctions are those no one believes in but they are kept in place out of political fear or expediency, like the sanctions against Cuba. In fact, the American sanctions against Cuba are some of the most asinine in history.
Take the sanctions against Iran: they are only partly driven by IAEA requirements, but their depth and scope also reflect the influence of domestic American political pressure groups. These groups include the Israeli lobby (AIPAC, etc), as well as defense hawks on the right (and some on the left). These sanctions are also partly driven by a regional rivalry for domination between the United States (directly and/or through its proxy allies) and Iran. In summary, the scope of the sanctions is the result of domestic American politics as much as Iranian “infractions”. Then there is the ego of some regional allies that the U.S. administration needs to massage, in this case the Israelis, the Saudis and possibly the UAE potentates (there is oil and huge contracts at stake). Then there is the need of some in both Israel and the USA to inflate the Iranian threat and its urgency in order to divert attention away from the urgent need to resolve the issue of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Among other things………
(Personally, I believe the only “smart” sanctions are those that target weapons and individuals, not institutions. Targeting large institutions almost always tends to harm many ordinary people).

Cheers
mhg


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