Category Archives: Iran

Anti-Semitism, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Middle East, Muslims, NATO, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US Foreign Policy

The Turks are Coming: Erdogan as a Softer Gentler Ahmadinejad?…………..

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“Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday fired his visit to post-revolution Tunisia with the kind of trademark warning to Israel that has earned him hero status on his “Arab Spring tour.” After a rapturous welcome in Cairo confirmed the Turkish strongman’s soaring regional popularity, Erdogan came to Tunisia where the wave of pro-democracy revolts sweeping the Arab world all began. He said that Israel could not do whatever it wanted in the eastern Mediterranean and that Turkish warships could be there at any moment. “Israel cannot do whatever it wants in the eastern Mediterranean. They will see what our decisions will be on this subject. Our navy attack ships can be there at any moment,” Erdogan told a news conference shortly after arriving in Tunis………“Relations with Israel cannot normalize if Israel does not apologize over the flotilla raid, compensate the martyrs’ families and lift the blockade of Gaza,” Erdogan said. Ankara said it was prepared to escort any future Gaza-bound ship with naval ships……..”

Interesting how the popularity of the non-Arab neighbor leaders soars with the tempo of their anti-Israeli rhetoric. Long ago, there were the Soviets, (although it is hard imagining anyone, even Arabs, getting excited about an old fart like Brezhnev or the dour Kosygin). Then along came Ahmadinejad who went beyond his Iranian predecessors and adopted the old Arab and anti-Semitic theme of Holocaust-baiting. He became wildly popular on the Arab street until the vast semi-official Saudi media, which dominates Arab airwaves and owns most Arab TV screens, started working on him and on their favorite theme of sectarian divisiveness. Ahmadinejad’s other problem is that he represents a theocratic system of governance that most Arabs, be they Sunni or Shi’a or Episcopalian, reject (just as most Arabs reject a system of absolute tribal repressive monarchy). Few Arabs, and probably few Iranians, like the idea of supreme clerical rule.
So now there is a persistent vacuum of leadership in the Arab world, the type of vacuum Ahmadinejad himself had talked about in the past. The Al Saud have tried to fill that vacuum of leadership, to inherit the old regional mantle of Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt that nobody could claim. The Saudis have failed even more than the Iranian mullahs, and for the same reason: they both represent regressive regimes, anomalies in this day and age. Iran is a repressive theocracy with quasi-democratic elements; Saudi Arabia is an even more repressive absolute one family dynasty where they pretend that the Quran is their ‘constitution’ while in fact it is the whims and greed of the ruling family that is the ‘constitution’.
Into the vacuum steps Turkey, newly reinvigorated both politically and economically. The Turks have long thought that they belonged in Europe; that their prosperity depended on being part of Europe. Events since the establishment of the Euro Zone indicate that the Turks can do fine without Europe, tyvm. Besides, the agnostic Europeans have a hard time shedding their ethnocentric ‘religious’ and racist prejudices and all the fears of the Siege of Vienna.
Having been rejected by Europe, the Turks have rediscovered their old domain, the Arab World, now the “sick man of the world”. They have also discovered that certain tweaks of their relationship with Israel can be wildly popular on the Arab street, if not in Arab palaces. The Turks are mindful of the growing new rivalry with their old Iranian rivals for places like Iraq and Syria (and possibly the Gulf). The Turks have an even better card: they have a democratic system of government that only two Arab states come even near to matching. And they know when to raise the rhetoric against Israel and when to tone it down, with the help of the Israeli right wing.
Then there is NATO………..
Cheers
mhg
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Iran, Iraq, nuclear Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, War on Iran, WTF

Nuclear Iran: Condi Rice’s Mushroom Cloud 2.0……….

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“Like the United States, they voiced particular alarm at Iran’s decision to move higher-grade uranium enrichment to an underground bunker — heightening their suspicions of its aims. “The absence of a plausible economic or commercial rationale for so many of the nuclear activities now being carried out in Iran, and the growing body of evidence of a military dimension to these activities give grounds for grave concern about Iran’s intentions,” British Ambassador Simon Smith said on behalf of London, Berlin and Paris. Davies said current IAEA monitoring of Iranian nuclear sites might provide some warning should Iran decide to “break out” and use its enriched uranium stockpile to develop nuclear bomb capability, but “that will come too late.”…………..”

Now it is: the plausibility, stupid! So, I had to go back to the earlier case: remember Iraq and Saddam and the smoking gun and the famous mushroom cloud? Here are some memorable quotes from the halcyon days of 2002-2003:

  • “We don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.” –National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice (2002)
  • “It’s a slam-dunk case!” –CIA Director George Tenet, discussing WMD and the case for war during a meeting in the Oval Office, Dec. 21, 2002
  • “We know where they are. They’re in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.” –Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld (2003)
  • “We know he’s been absolutely devoted to trying to acquire nuclear weapons, and we believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons.” –Vice President Dick Cheney(2003)
  • WEF?—-> “I think the burden is on those people who think he didn’t have weapons of mass destruction to tell the world where they are.” –White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, July 9, 2003
  • “British intelligence has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Our intelligence sources tell us that he has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes suitable for nuclear weapons production.” –President Bush, 2003
  • “King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia repeatedly exhorted the United States to “cut off the head of the snake” by launching military strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, according to leaked U.S. diplomatic cables….” Reuters (2010)
  • “The release of the BPC report in late June, and the Post op-ed today, coincide roughly with a revealing and important diatribe from the United Arab Emirates ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al-Otaiba, who said this week that the UAE wouldn’t be unhappy at all if the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear program. “I think it’s a cost-benefit analysis,” said Otaiba, the representative of a notorious kleptocracy in Abu Dhabi…..” The Nation

Yada, yada, yada. Which in itself does not mean that the Iranians are not interested in nuclear weapons. It does mean, however, that Western intelligence can be totally stupid and can totally fuck up just a they did in Iraq. It does mean that some Iranian exile groups can also be self-serving in pushing the “nuclear bomb” issue, given that their intelligence sources are unreliable at best. There is a lot of fog around the Iranian nuclear program, some of it created deliberately by the Iranian regime itself and some of it, I suspect, by Western governments and their intelligence sources. Some of this fog is a result of ignorance and some of it is deliberate, on both sides.
Cheers
mhg


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Gulf states, Iran, Middle East, nuclear Iran, nuclear wepoans, WTF

On Bushehr Nuclear Power, Zaroastrian and Royal Pagan Rites on my Gulf of Madness……..

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“Iran has condemned the “negative” position of the Gulf GCC which had criticized the Iranian “provocations” toward some Arab states in the Gulf. The spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, Ramin Mehmanprast that the “regional policies of the Islamic Republic has always been one of mutual respect, good neighborliness, and noninterference……Regrettably some have waged a campaign against Iran…….. He considered that the GCC ministers expressing their deep worry about developments in the Iranian nuclear issue” an unnecessary thing……..”

Okay: the “GCC” ministers have criticized Iran’s nuclear program, just as the new Bushehr plant is now providing electric power. The Iranians interpret the IAEA reports different from the way Western powers interpret them (the glass half-full vs. the glass half-empty syndrome). As for me, I have no idea if the glass is half-full or half-empty: there is an important difference, depending on which half is empty and which is full and taking into consideration one of Newton’s Laws. I do hope the Iranians are right and there will be no nuclear weapons in the Middle East (except in Israel), but I have my doubts on this issue. I would dread the prospect of a nuclear arms race between the mullahs in Tehran and the potentates in Abu Dhabi. I also wonder if mullahs would lie to us? In any case, nuclear technology has a logic of its own, sort of like when……..oh well, no sense getting obscene here.
What is
 intriguing in this brief and ordinary report from a daily newspaper in my home town on my Gulf, is the unrelated picture and the caption it added to this report. This picture below is captioned with the words “Iranian Zaroastrians perform their religious rites at the Temple
of  Fire in Tehran”.
    Also sprach the mullahs?
To
 foreign eyes it looks quite innocent, maybe even quaint and cute (as it does to me in fact in a different context). Now WTF does the photo have to do with the nuclear program? This is something that divisive semi-official Saudi media outlets like Alarabiya or Asharq Alawsat often publish, not a daily that claims some remnant of the old bygone pre-Salafi liberalism of my hometown. In the Gulf of Madness, such photo and caption only serve to fan flames and divisions these days. Before you know it, there will be retaliation: some Saudi princes will start bowing to al-Lat or Hubal of the good old pagan Jahiliya days, or some Egyptian expatriates who have gone native will start worshiping a Pharaoh again (that era may be over now but there are plenty of princes available). In this age of confessional and sectarian tensions stoked by irresponsible potentates and their retainers……………..
(I found the photo rather cute: men and women performing their common rites. WTF is wrong with that?)
Cheers
mhg


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Afghanistan, Britain, Finance, Iran, Iraq, nuclear Iran, Persian-American Gulf, US Foreign Policy

Breaking News! Tony Blair as Windsor, Solves the Iraq Fiasco and Afghanistan……….

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“Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria as he blames Tehran for prolonging the conflict in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. In an interview to mark the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the former prime minister warns that the Middle East would be “very, very badly” destabilised if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Blair, who is the Middle East peace envoy, tells the Times: “Regime change in Tehran would immediately make me significantly more optimistic about the whole of the region. If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons capability it would destabilise the region very, very badly. “They continue to support groups that are engaged with terrorism and the forces of reaction. In Iraq one of the main problems has been the continued intervention of Iran and likewise in Afghanistan.“…….”

Did I write earlier that Tony Blair may be angling for the Nobel Prize in “WMD”?
I’ve got nothing against regime change in Iran or in ‘most’ of the rest of the Middle East (almost all of it). In fact I could recommend a couple of candidates that would make Mr. Blair faint, and I mean biggies. But these changes should be done by the people, not by bumbling Western leaders playing macho outside their bedrooms.
So, Blair now blames the Iranian regime for the wars he started (with his allies). He blames the mullahs for the fact that the “Mission Was NOT Accomplished”. True, the Iranians have their own interests and machinations and they certainly did not try to make life easier for the Mr. Blair and his partners. But to blame his fiasco on someone else? Now that is leadership, “New Labor” style (pardon my missing “u”).

Mr. Blair can now rest assured that he will be retained as “somebody’s” envoy for the Middle East. He need not worry on becoming another Duke of Windsor, whiling his time in luxury on the Riviera. He can also, coincidentally, be assured of more fat deals and contracts from various potentates and oligarchs in my region.

(Nothing personal against Tony, I could overlook anyone’s shortcomings, especially my own. But I detest anyone who calls for another fucking war in my region, and Tony has been calling for another fucking war in my Gulf for some time now. He is treating the region as if it is still his own fucking backyard).
Cheers
mhg


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Economics, Finance, IMF, Iran

Iranian Economy: Maserati Mullahs, Porsche Bazaris, IMF Salafis………….

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“Three decades later, under a leadership that promised the masses greater social and economic equality, such ostentatious displays of disparity have become far more commonplace. …… And how the situation in Iran’s capital compares statistically to any other major city may not be as important as the perception it creates, especially in a society whose rulers still govern in the name of the oppressed. “I know people have the right to enjoy their money,” said Hamid, a 32-year-old accountant. “But when there are many who can’t afford bread and basic necessities in this city, seeing a multimillion-dollar car on the street tells you something is very wrong with our economy.” The source of wealth in Iran, and Tehran in particular, raises a lot of eyebrows. “No one knows where it comes from,” says a graduate student of economics……. Last year, Porsche opened a dealership in Tehran’s western suburbs to great fanfare……Porsche’s successful entry into the Iranian market has encouraged other manufacturers to make similar plans. Roughly a year after Porsche began its operations in the Islamic Republic, an Italian business daily revealed that Maserati, Fiat’s high-end brand, aims to open a dealership through a representative in Tehran next year. ………The Shargh report was quoted widely by media outlets representing every side of the Iranian political spectrum, all echoing concerns about the ungodly gap between rich and poor………..”

Unemployment in Iran is officially in double digits, and the true figures are almost certainly higher than official figures. Poverty and inequality are still as important issues as they were in 1979. The mullahs, having defeated their leftist partners of the Revolution, have failed to solve the main economic issues that created the revolution. The Western sanctions are partly responsible (sanctions always hurt ordinary folks and not the elites they are supposed to hurt, and the Western powers know that). It is wise for the regime to remember that the Arab uprisings this past year were mostly not inspired by God, they were inspired by repression, economic hardships, and flagrant economic disparities among people. Iran nowadays is close to having all three pre-requisites for another uprising, the recent IMF accolades notwithstanding.
(The IMF and the other international financial organizations have a kind of tunnel vision: they see only their models, if they are being followed or not. In that sense they are as zealous as any Salafi. They are probably secret Tea Baggers).
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Middle East Nuclear, Palestine

Tony Blair Frustrated on Palestine, a Nobel Prize in WMD, Hamas or Fatah………

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““I totally understand the frustrations the Palestinians have. We are all frustrated in this situation. We want to see progress toward peace, toward the two-state solution,” Blair told Reuters Insider in an interview marking the 10th anniversary of the September 11 al Qaeda attacks on U.S. cities. “The problem is you have always got to say, well what happens the day after (a bid for U.N. recognition)?'” the former British prime minister said. “Any gestures that are done by way of unilateral declaration, they are expressions of frustration and they may be understandable for that reason but they don’t deliver a Palestinian state,” he said………”

Tony Blair is consistent in his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian peace. He believes in a four track policy to achieving that peace: (1) keep him as the special envoy (btw: whose envoy is he?), (2) stop attempts at UN to declare a Palestinian State, (3) resume negotiations, and (4) start a war against the Iranian mullahs (wtf). I am not sure how another Western war in the Middle East will help the peace process, but Tony is strongly for it and often mentions it. Maybe because it pleases his Middle Eastern benefactors and friends, or maybe he has always had a love-hate, poodle-banshee relationship with George W. Bush and the American neoconservatives. Maybe it is a New Labor thing.
Tony has now joined the Western campaign to stop a United Nation action on a Palestinian state, although he doesn’t say at whose behest. I suspect Tony is also angling for a Nobel Prize (in Peace not in WMD). If the Palestinians, all of them, and the Israelis, all of them, reach a real peace deal, not a half-assed one like in the past two decades. Why, Tony will finally step out from the shadows of W, finally become his own poodle, so to speak.
But he won’t get it, even in the highly unlikely event of a peace deal between the Jewish fundamentalists of Likud and the Muslim fundamentalists of Palestine. (I bet some of you did not know that the PA of Fatah is on its way out, to be replaced with more Hamas types. It is an unfortunate byproduct of the current Arab turmoil. Not that I’ll miss the corrupt schmucks of Fatah anymore than I like the fundamentalist quasi-theocrats of Hams).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, NATO, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey

Syria and Iraq and the Arabs: the New Iranian-Turkish Regional Rivalry………….

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“President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls for dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition and urges the government to respect people’s rights. “We are of the opinion that that nations and governments should resolve their problems with each other (through dialogue),” Ahmadinejad tells Portugal’s Radiotelevisao Portuguesa when asked about Iran’s position toward uprisings in Syria. Ahmadinejad adds, “Governments and nations should respect rights and freedom.”……….” Mehr News Agency (Iran)

“Iran criticizes Turkey for agreeing to host NATO’s missile defense system, saying Iran does not expect Turkey as a neighbor and friendly country to adopt policies that would create tension in the region. “We expect our friendly countries and neighbors to show more vigilance and by considering the region’s security interests do not pave the way for policies that create tension that will definitely lead to ‘complicated consequences’,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says. Turkey has recently agreed to host an early warning radar as part of NATO’s missile defense system which is allegedly aimed to counter missile threats by Iran. Mehmanparast says Iran believes the deployment radar system in Turkey will not serve “regional stability and security” even for the host country……….” Mehr News Agency

These two news items from Iran reflect newly reshuffled cards in the game of musical chairs in our region. There is no doubt now that the Iranians are bracing for change in Syria. Even if the protests in Syrian cities are crushed, regimes like the Ba’ath one in Syria are considered an anomaly now (as are other regimes, but that is for another post). Change is coming and not just in Syria, but whether it is ‘change you can believe in’ depends on your view and your politics.
The Iranians have looked at the players in Syria and probably decided to get ready for any eventuality. It is likely that they have decided to adopt their own Syrian faction: everyone else seems to have their own “Islamist” factions in Syria these days. Sect is not an issue when it comes to politics: the Iranian mullahs are not as ‘pure’ as the Wahhabi potentates in Saudi Arabia, or maybe they can’t afford to be that pure given the demographics of most countries in the region by sect. They may be getting ready to throw the secular Ba’ath regime under the bus, hoping for another “Hamas”. What favors this tack is that the mullahs also know that they have one important card in Syria no matter who comes to power in Damascus: the Golan Heights. The Likud or Kadima will never give up the Golan, which means any new Damascus regime will probably keep its Iranian (and hence its Lebanese) options open. The Iranians invented the game of chess and that is how they play the regional politics, yet they are not immune to the unrest.
Then there is Turkey, which had been sympathetic to the Iranian position on the nuclear issue. Until now. The Arab Spring has reshuffled the regional cards and created new opportunities, and it is not done yet. Silent and latent rivalries, dating back to the Persian-Ottoman struggle over Arab territories like Iraq, are warming up. This is exacerbated by the total paralysis of the Arab system and the inability of the Arab oligarchs to shape events in the region. Despite the billions spent on weapons and on international networking, the region’s fate is still determined by three non-Arab parties and the West. Egypt may regain its pre-Mubarak role as a major regional player, as “the” Arab player, but that depends on how things develop in Cairo. The Iranian-Turkish rivalry in Iraq is more commercial than political since the Iranians seem to have an overwhelming political and cultural and geographic advantage. The Iranian hand in Iraq has been strengthened by the loud disapproval of some Arab regimes of the new order in Iraq.
Syria is another matter: it is a smaller and poorer country. But Syria also has its own issue with Turkey: the small region of Alexandretta that the Syrians claim should be theirs.
When the dust settles on this new Arab Spring, and that may be a few years from now, what we shall see will most likely be quite different from what we now expect. This also includes developments inside Iran.
Cheers
mhg


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Culture, Iran, Muslims, Religion, Saudi Arabia

Silly Iranians, a Politicized End of Ramadan, and the Age of Aquarius……….

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“The Jeddah Astronomy Society’s mistake in sighting of the new moon in Saudi Arabia has angered the many Muslim nations who followed suit and pronounced Tuesday as Eid al-Fitr wrongly.
The society had said that people actually saw the planet Saturn and not the crescent moon that marks the beginning of the Islamic month of Shawwal. Hatem Auda, director of the National Institute for Astronomical and Geophysical Research, had said that astronomical calculations by scientists of the institute noted that the first day of the Eid was Wednesday, August 31, making Tuesday, August 30 the last day of Ramadan for the Hijri year of 1432. Various news agencies such as Al-Arabiya and Aljazeera have also reported that the planet Saturn has been mistaken for the Hilal (crescent moon), and this means that what was announced as the first day of Eid al-Fitr was supposed to be a day of fasting, rather than celebrations…………Thus, those Muslim nations who have followed the Saudi suit as usual and celebrated the last Tuesday as Eid al-Fitr are now angry with the Saudis as Eid al-Fitr is the biggest eve for the worldwide Muslim community………..” Fars News Agency

All this talk of the moon, Saturn, Jovian planets, Terrestrial planets, and the Age of Aquarius is meaningless to most people. I think the Iranians are being silly here, nearly childish. They are politicizing the end of Ramadan and beginning of Eid al-Fitr. I don’t know if the Saudis made a mistake or not, but I can tell an Iranian attempt to score political points. The mullahs ought to lighten up.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia

Petro- Elections of Pakistan and Elsewhere……..

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“KARACHI: ISI asked Saudi Arabia not to fund Nawaz Sharif for his election campaign, a secret cable of 2008 revealed. According to WikiLeaks, National Security Adviser Tariq Aziz told Asif Zardari that after being elected as a prime minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi could challenge his authority, as Zardari was considering Qureshi as a PPP candidate for prime minister. Aziz told US Ambassador Anne Patterson on February 15 that Saudi Arabia has provided heavy funds to Nawaz Sharif for his election campaign in order to defeat Pakistan Peoples’ Party. In the same meeting, he also told Patterson that ISI requested Saudi Ambassador to stop funding Nawaz Sharif. ………..” Pakistan is a huge country, population wise. The Saudis must have spent multiple what they spent (and still do) in Lebanon and Iraq and other places for election and coup campaigns. Reports indicate they outspent the Iranians, actually swamped them, in terms of spending in the last Lebanese elections (they did get to control the parliament, briefly). I bet they will have to spend much more in Egypt in the coming elections. Then there is Libya, whenever it ever gets to elections (NTC promises to hold them in 2013), and Syria if it ever gets to having elections. Of course there is still Saudi Arabia (aka Arabian Peninsula): if they ever decide to hold opsn elections, sometime on the other side of doomsday……
Cheers
mhg


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Economics, Iran

Iran: Softcore Criticism vs. Hardcore Criticism of the Regime……..

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““I do not care about statistics. Every day about 2000 letters and messages are received by our office in which many complain about inflation and other problems,” the grand ayatollah told worshippers at prayers marking Eid ul-Fitr in the shrine city of Qom. As a marja taqlid (a Shia cleric regarded as a source of emulation), Makarem Shirazi also referred to cultural issues and said, “If ethical issues are undermined, the system, Islam, and Quran also suffer damages.” Elsewhere in his speech he called on officials to be open to criticism. “There is constructive criticism among these criticisms.” He added it is not correct to say that everything is good and “close our eyes to realities”…………………..”

The grand ayatollah is being gracious, conceding that people have a right to ‘criticize’ mundane things like inflation, the price of bread, gas, etc. That is normal: they do that all over the Middle East. He will probably be a little less gracious if people get to criticize a bit more hardcore issues, like the unemployment that is in double digits and much higher in truth than official data would indicate. After all, without employment people won’t be able to buy these items about whose prices they complain (like bread, gas, etc). I also suspect the cleric will be even much less gracious if people start doing some hardcore criticism, about silly things like freedom of expression, freedom of religion, and elections. He would be especially pissed off if the decide to criticize the raison d’etre for the whole system. That is a definite no-no all over the region.
Cheers
mhg


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