Category Archives: Iran

Iran, OPEC, Sanctions, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Plan B? Western Sanctions Tighten, Iran Launches Huge New Oil Tankers……..

    

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“Iran has procured a new oil tanker with a capacity of 2.2 million barrels, one of the world’s largest. The tanker, which is valued at around $300 million, will join the Iranian fleet within the next few days. The oil tanker is a ‘floating storage and unload vessel’, said Managing Director of Iranian Offshore Oil Company Mahmoud Zirakchianzadeh. The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC), Iran’s oil shipping operator, is expanding its tanker fleet with the first of 12 supertankers to be delivered from China in May, fortuitous timing for the OPEC member as Western sanctions force Tehran to rely more on its ships to export oil, Reuters reported. The new tankers, each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of crude, add much-needed capacity to NITC’s fleet at a time when the number of maritime firms willing to transport Iranian crude has dwindled significantly amid European sanctions. The EU will prohibit European insurers and reinsurers from indemnifying tankers carrying Iranian crude oil anywhere in the world from July, threatening to curtail shipments and raise costs for major buyers like China, India, Japan and South Korea. The NITC managing director announced in December 2011 that 21 new tankers will be added to the national fleet by the end of 2013…………”


Either the Iranians are optimistic about an end to Western sanctions soon or they have one hell of a Plan B. Since I know for certain that Western sanctions will not be lifted or even eased this year, then there must be a Plan B.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Persian Gulf, Persian-American Gulf, UAE, US Foreign Policy

Strait of Hormuz: a Visit to an Island for Lease, Liberation of Iran……

    

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“Tehran on Monday warned Arab states in the Gulf that things could become “very complicated” if they do not act cautiously over a simmering islands dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi made the declaration to Iran’s ISNA news agency on the eve of talks in Doha between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states over three tiny islands in the Gulf and claimed by both Iran and the UAE. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad infuriated the UAE by visiting one of them, Abu Musa, on April 11 and asserting in a speech that historical records proved “the Persian Gulf is Persian,” as state media called his trip a purely “domestic issue.”…………”


“Sheikh Abdullah said the islands were in a “pivotal area”, crucial to the passage of oil. The UAE wants to find a solution to the conflict, but Iran’s behaviour “might bring serious complications and implications”, he said. “We have to have a clear agenda, a deadline for these negotiations.” If necessary the parties should seek international arbitration or go to the International Court of Justice, Sheikh Abdullah said. “But we cannot keep this matter going on for ever.” The Foreign Minister added: “It is with regret that a Muslim and neighbour country with civilisation and traditions behaves in such a manner. It is supposed to behave rationally, not to project its internal concerns abroad. In this case the consequences can be dangerous.”………”

I had thought there was an old agreement between Iran and one of the Emirates (Sharjah), allegedly brokered by Britain which had controlled the island, to share the oil and gas around Abu Moussa. I need to research this, but I thought there was some agreement regulating supervision as well (I can be wrong, but I doubt it).
 
More Seriously: There are rumors swirling around me that Abu Dhabi wants to lease at least one of the islands to a foreign power as a military naval base. The rumors have it that since the Canadians pulled out of their base, the UAE has had major foreign bases for only the United States, Britain, and France. In addition to some possible facilities to smaller powers like Bosnia and Monaco and the Maldives. Apparently the rulers of Abu Dhabi feel that they need more foreign bases (on the assumption that “the more the merrier“). The rumor says they wish to release an island to the Sultan of Bruni to use as a naval base to protect the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian incursions. The idea is that Western bases and Bruni bases will protect the Gulf from such ‘external’ threats as Iran poses. Bruni-ian and Western soldiers are known to be always eager to defend their national territorial waters in the Persian-American Gulf against outside incursions from faraway foreign places like Iran.
Another rumor, quickly discounted by yours truly, is that the potentates plan to settle their new foreign mercenary brigade formed by Blackwater executives from among Colombians gang veterans, disgruntled white South Africans, rare teetotaler Australians, Mexican drug cartel graduates, and other such Arab nationalists.
The Iranians, remembering Iraq in 2003, may worry that the mercenaries and/or Bruni forces will use the island as a base for launching an invasion of their country with the intention of liberating it. Stay tuned.
I still don’t know wtf Ahmadinejad was doing visiting that island at this time. It is not like he is running for office again; he can’t. Maybe he knows.
Cheers
mhg


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Human Right, Iran

Shirin Ebadi on Human Rights in Iran, Exile……..

    

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““In Iran, human rights activists are either in prison or they are incommunicado, meaning no one can talk to them and it’s basically impossible for them to have any activity. Unfortunately at the present time, a lot of people … are afraid to talk. This is why I’ve remained outside Iran, and work for Iran from where I am,” says Ebadi, who moved to London after Iran’s contested 2009 presidential elections. “If something happens in the world, it has to be told so that others will find out about it. It must be known by the world.”……………..”
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, nuclear Iran, U.S. Congress, U.S. Politics, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Obama Painted into a Corner on Iran: Why Hillary Clinton Should Leave State…..

    

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“L’Iran a appelé lundi les Occidentaux à envisager la levée des sanctions s’ils veulent parvenir à une solution de la crise liée à son programme nucléaire controversé, et laissé entendre qu’il pourrait discuter du niveau d’enrichissement de son uranium. «Si l’Occident veut construire (un climat de) confiance, il devrait commencer par les sanctions, car cela peut aider à accélérer les discussions pour parvenir à une solution», a déclaré le chef de la diplomatie iranienne Ali Akbar Salehi à l’agence de presse ISNA………..”

That is the dilemma of the Iran negotiations with P5+1. Even if the Iranians agree not to enrich uranium to the 20% level, the Western regimes are in no position to lift the sanctions. Provided they are really willing to provide the isotopes needed for research. The Obama administration has painted itself into a corner, where it cannot lift the sanctions in exchange for Iranian concessions. In this political year, the sanctions have been tightened more than ever before, mainly for domestic US political reasons, pressure by the Republican right and AIPAC and the likes of Joe Lieberman. There is no way Obama can lift any sanctions this year; he certainly can’t get the Congress to go along. There is also no way the Iranian will agree to yield on the enrichment issue without a lifting of the Western blockade. That would be tantamount to surrender.
In their eagerness to accommodate the American and Israeli right-wing, Obama and Hillary Clinton have made sure that there can be no deal this year. Not a very good job by the Clinton State Department. If Obama is reelected, he really should look for another secretary of state: the current one has not done a good job.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Iraq, Middle East Nuclear, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

Appointment in Baghdad: Percentages of U-235, Netanyahu the Most Predictable………..

    

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“The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, has said that Tehran does not intend to stop producing uranium enriched to a purity level of 20 percent. Jalili, who is Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, made the remarks during a press conference in Istanbul on Saturday after two rounds of talks between representatives of Iran and the 5+1 group (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany), which ended a 15-month hiatus in talks. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton represented the 5+1 group in the nuclear negotiations and Jalili headed the Iranian delegation………”

“MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi has said that the topic of lifting economic sanctions against Iran will be discussed during the next round of talks between Tehran and the major world powers, which is scheduled to be held in Baghdad on May 23. He also said that the issue of uranium enrichment is highly important to the Islamic Republic, adding that Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the supervision of the International
Atomic Energy Agency…………”

Interesting take, or maybe spin, by Iranian officials, through a semi-official news agency. Enrichment of uranium to 20% (i.e. 20% weight fraction of U-235) is usually needed for medical isotopes, while enrichment to 5% is needed for power generation. Neither is sufficient for developing a nuclear weapons.
The Iranian official seems certain they will not give up on 20% enrichment needed for medical isotopes. They also seem certain there will be meeting in Baghdad next month. The two don’t seem compatible in view of previously-expressed official American opinion. Maybe the Iranians are also bluffing. We’ll have to wait the U.S. State Department comments this week, perhaps later today. Both sides seemed subdued this weekend, except for Netanyahu who is probably the most predictable politicians in the world. Netanyahu mouthed off his usual mantra, biding his time as he awaits the inauguration of Mitt Godot Romney.
(FYI: I am not a nuclear physicist, not anymore, or maybe not yet)
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Israel, Middle East Nuclear, United Nations International Organizations

Israel Sets the Conditions for any Western Deal with Iran………..

    

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“Israel is demanding that its allies set Iran’s complete surrender of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent as one of the goals of the nuclear talks scheduled for mid-April. Citing 2012 as the “year to stop Iran,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday that he has held discussions with American and European officials in recent weeks with the goal of convincing them to set clear goals for the planned talks with Iran. The talks are scheduled to begin on April 13 between Iran and representatives of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany, known as P5+1. Disagreements still exist regarding the venue although Istanbul currently appears to be acceptable to all sides. Barak revealed what Israel’s goals are for the talks: 1) transfer of all uranium enriched to 20 percent – approximately 120 kg. – out of Iran to a third party country; 2) the transfer of the majority of the 5 tons of uranium enriched to 3.5% out of Iran, leaving just enough needed for energy purposes; 3) the closure of the Fordow enrichment facility, buried under a mountain near the city of Qom; 4) the transfer of fuel rods from a third party country to Iran for the purpose of activating the Tehran Research Reactor………….”

I am almost certain that if these Likud fools get their way, if the West follows their advice, the Iranians will end up with nuclear weapons sometime within the next few years. Even if, as they claim, they have no intention to do so now (they probably mean it for now). But I suspect the Iranian nuclear program has nothing to do with all this noise.
If the Iranian mullahs were Italians, of the more down to earth kind, they probably would respond: vaffanculo  (in Google-ese Eyetalian), or the equivalent of it.
Cheers
mhg


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AIPAC, Iran, Middle East Nuclear, NATO, War on Iran

An Iranian Nuclear Message to the Wrong Ears……………..

    

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“Work hard in your mind       
So you can come alive

You beter prove to the man      
You’re as strong as him

Cause in the eyes of god        
You’re both children to him

Da da doo doo                  
Everybody come alive

Everybody live alive           
Everybody love alive

Everybody hear my message………………” Jimi Hendrix

“Forty-five years ago, the United States sold my country a research reactor as well as weapons-grade uranium as its fuel. Not long afterward, America agreed to help Iran set up the full nuclear fuel cycle along with atomic power plants. The U.S. argument was that nuclear power would provide for the growing needs of our economy and free our remaining oil reserves for export or conversion to petrochemicals. That rationale has not changed. Still, after the Islamic Revolution in our country in 1979, all understandings with the United States in the nuclear field unraveled. Washington even cut off fuel deliveries to the very facility it supplied. To secure fuel from other sources, Iran was forced to modify the reactor to run on uranium enriched to around 20 percent. The Tehran Research Reactor still operates, supplying isotopes used in the medical treatment of 800,000 of my fellow Iranians every year. But getting to this point was not easy……….We have never failed when faced with no option but to provide for our own needs. All relationships — whether between parents and children, spouses or even nation-states — are based on trust. The example of the Tehran Research Reactor vividly illustrates the key issue between Iran and the United States: lack of trust………..”

Dr. Salehi is probably addressing the American people and not the government. Otherwise he would be better off addressing the government of Israel which is holding the peace of the Middle East hostage over the alleged Iranian nuclear bomb. The Israelis get a lot of help in that from the Saudi princes. Salehi should forward a copy of his editorial to the AIPAC.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Israel, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

Israeli Intelligence Feeding the IAEA……..

    

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“First, Iran was first accused of developing a nuclear weapon in 1982, when it was predicted to have a deliverable weapon by 1984. In 1984 Jane’s Defence Weekly announced that Iran would have a bomb by 1986. This pattern has been repeated many times since, until 2009 when the ‘bomb-in-two-years’ story flashed across everyone’s news screens again. The news narrative following the latest (8 Nov 2011) IAEA report reflected again this repeated accusation. However, the report itself in effect concurred with the USA’s 2007 and 2010 combined intel reports (NIEs), that the Iranians gave up their fledgling weaponisation programme in 2003. Second, the 8 November IAEA report referred to some additional concerns arising from new information about nuclear weapons development at the site where Iran develops its conventional longer range missiles – Parchin, a site visited by IAEA inspectors a number of times. This information (since ridiculed by US experts) was said to have originated from a laptop obtained by the IAEA via Israel – a laptop that was not available for independent verification………….…”


So, the IAEA under Yukiya Amano is apparently depending on Israel to provide its “reliable” information about Iran’s nuclear intentions. This seems either stupid or just willful, probably a combination of both. The fox guarding the hen-house. As I suggested in my earlier post, why not have the IAEA also rely on the Saudi grand mufti Al Al as a source of nuclear intelligence? If Mr. Amano is, as reported, eager to please the powerful West, then as a corollary he ought to be eager to please the Wahhabi moneybags.
Cheers
mhg


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Iran, Israel, Middle East Nuclear, United Nations International Organizations, War on Iran

Honest Netanyahu in 2009: “Iran has Two Nukes on Missiles Ready to go”……….

    

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“Continuing the release of the US Stratfor research site’s e-mails, Wikileaks Wednesday, March 28 issued a batch of mails which indicated that Binyamin Netanyahu may have been a source of the site’s Vice President for intelligence Fred Burton (a former Deputy Chief of the Department of State’s counterterrorism division for the Diplomatic Security) from at least May 2007 up until 2010 after he became Prime Minister of Israel. The Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem has not commented on the publication. According to one e-mail from Burton, Netanyahu is said to have revealed in Dec. 2009 that “Iran has two nukes on missiles ready to go.” Burton went on to report that the White House (Barack Obama) was “doing everything possible to block Israel’s next steps. He added the view that “Israel will go it alone. Israeli subs are off Iran’s coast.” In answer to a question, Burton replied: “My source is bb (eyes only).”…………….”


If this report that originated through Wikileaks is true, it confirms many suspicions about the role of Israeli intelligence regarding the Iranian nuclear program. At this rate, why not rely on the Saudi grand mufti as a source of intelligence? He may be as reliable as Netanyahu about the Iranian nuclear program (but not an iota more reliable). The Salafi Mufti also has as much interest and eagerness for an Israeli or American (or both) attack on Iran as the best Likudnik.
Cheers
mhg


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9/11, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, US Foreign Policy

Mamas and Papas in Dushanbe: Iran with Friends, a Hug from Susan Rice……….

    

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“Monday Monday, so good to me,

Monday Monday, it was all I hoped it would be

Oh Monday morning, Monday morning couldn’t guarantee

That Monday evening you would still be here with me.


Monday Monday, can’t trust that day,

Monday Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way

Oh Monday morning, you gave me no warning of what was to be

Oh Monday Monday, how yould cou leave and not take me. ………..” The Mamas and The Papas



“Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon called for more cooperation during their summit in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on Sunday. The presidents emphasized that the expansion of relations between regional countries helps efforts meant to resolve problems facing the region. They said that the four countries should step up their campaign against drugs and terrorism and increase their cooperation in all areas to help promote the welfare of the people of the region. During the summit, Ahmadinejad stated that enemies of the region are experiencing many problems and have reached an impasse and called for closer cooperation between the four countries………..”


Is it just my own impression or are the Iranians running out of friends? All I read is Ahmadinejad going to Kabul, Islamabad, Harare, Khartoum, Dushanbe (Dushanbe means ‘Monday’ in Farsi). I’ve got nothing against their great cities, especially in peacetime, but what else? I mean the Saudi king can fly to Paris or Berlin or Washington or even Chicago and get a warm (at least warm-looking) welcome from their leaders. Even Rahm Emanuel would roll out the red carpet. Even in New York, post 9/11. 

As for Mahmoud Ahmadinejd, he probably can’t get a visa to visit Lichtenstein. You think the mullahs are wondering WTF is going on? You’d think they’ll start applying the charm, such as it is, and spreading the goodwill around. Imagine a day when Ahmadinejad or some ayatollah gets a friendly smile and a warm hug from Susan Rice?
Cheers
mhg


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