Category Archives: GCC

Camp David and the Nusra Front Expose the Saudi Inferiority Complex……..

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The media punditry and noise about the upcoming Gulf GCC summit with President Obama at Camp David have exposed certain facts about Saudi Arabia and its relations and aspirations within the region. They have exposed a deep inferiority complex and dangerous insecurity that have exacerbated instability in the Middle East. Just look at the mess that Syria and Iraq and Yemen have become. Let us look at the few countries that the Saudis feel threatened by and create this inferiority complex:
Iran: has some 77 million native people, a diverse economy that has withstood the Western blockade for decades, despite economic mismanagement by the mullahs and lower (deliberately engineered) petroleum prices. It is relatively highly advanced in technology: nuclear and space and medical as well as other industries, probably partly a result of a self reliance forced by the blockade.
Iraq: some 30 million (now), multi-cultural with huge untapped petroleum reserves, and a diverse economy.
Egypt: some 80 million people, a potentially diverse economy and dormant technical knowledge.
Yemen: even poor Yemen has a larger population than Saudi Arabia (26 million citizens against some 16 million Saudi citizens). And an interesting ancient history.
Turkey: a relatively new state with a short history by Middle East standards, but a diverse economy and a gateway to Europe. If only the Caliph Erdogan would stop supporting Jihadi cutthroats in Arab politics.
(Israel: the outlier in the group, but militarily powerful and technically the most advanced in the Middle East. They don’t worry about it because it is non-Islamic non-Arab and hence not a rival; besides, it is either a real or a potential ally against the others).

All these countries have a long history of settled civilization, some of the oldest in the world (with the exception of Turkey).


Is it any wonder the Saudis feel insecure, when they have to rely on foreign labor and foreign products and imported mercenaries to such an extent? When the princes have to pay Sudanese and Moroccans and Senegalese to fight their wars, even against impoverished Yemen? Now they are supreme within the small club of the Gulf GCC. They are assured to remain the largest state, the big man in the club. That is why they will never accept any new members, rivals that are larger and/or more advanced. That is why they will try to make sure other larger states in the region, real and potential rivals, remain distant and weak.
That is why they do the voodoo that they do: try to keep the Western blockade on Iran, keep Egypt weak and politically divided and subservient, try to keep Iraq divided, try in vain to get and keep control of Yemen.

That is why they introduced their strongest strategic weapon so far: politicized modern Islamic sectarianism. They have (re)introduced it into the region and use it extensively to divide and weaken their rivals and maintain their power at home. The alleged Sunni-Shi’a war is in reality an attempt to extend the Wahhabi war on other Islamic sects, on other faiths.
What are ISIS and Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and AQAP and the rest of the intolerant Jihadi gangs but Wahhabism taken literally to its extreme? Speaking of which: reports now tell us that Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Turkey are backing Al Nusra Front in Syria, the certified approved Al Qaeda franchise in that country. Anything for the appearance of an elusive victory on their rivals.

Gulf GCC Comes to Camp David: the Addled, the Wretched, and Emma Lazarus………

Phony Arab Fear of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Catharsis and Kumbaya at Camp David………

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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Gulf GCC Comes to Camp David: the Addled, the Wretched, and Emma Lazarus……..

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“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.”
 Emma Lazarus

The Huffington Post headlined (exaggerated) on Monday: “The Great Gulf Back-Out. Saudi King, Other Gulf Nation Rulers To Skip Camp David Summit………..”. Other US media have also repeated this idea of the hesitation of the tired, poor, huddled, wretched of the Gulf to make the trip to Washington. This is a bit of an exaggeration. There are solid non-political reasons why most of the top GCC leaders will not attend; Several of them are physically unable:

  • King Salman of Saudi Arabia: the Saudi princes are as unhappy about the Iran nuclear deal as Netanyahu claims to be. Maybe even more so, given that Netanyahu is a faker: he uses it as a red herring. Saudis want Iran under blockade, impoverished and preferably attacked by Americans or Israelis or both. Because it is the only way they can be the most important player in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian population is about 77 million, almost all native, and they sit over the world’s largest gas reserves. The Saudi population is about 16 million citizens (plus about 9 million temporary foreign laborers who rotate). Some Saudi (Wahhabi) opposition groups claim that King Salman is suffering from Alzheimer’s and that he will never attend any foreign summit anyway. This self-serving rumor has not been totally corroborated yet.
    (Bahrain doesn’t count as completely independent here. The rulers of Bahrain ape the Al Saud: with thousands of Saudi troops in their country, they do as they do and probably they do as they are told).
  • Oman: the Sultan of Oman has had surgery and lengthy medical treatment in Europe. In recent years he has had someone else represent him at all foreign summits. Besides, he maintains friendly relations with both sides of the Iranian-Saudi rivalry.
  • United Arab Emirates: the president of UAE and ruler of Abu Dhabi Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed is ill, and he has been absent from all summits. The real power is with his brothers, especially crown prince Shaikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, who will attend. Nothing new here. So, in spite of claims by some UAE minor officials and professors about a reaction to the Iran deal, this is not exactly true: the ruler has not attended any summit for several years, nor should he, and he would not attend Camp David anyway.
  • The Emir of Kuwait and Emir of Qatar apparently are the only two healthy rulers of the GCC. They will attend.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Yemeni Monolog of the Walking Dead: Hadi’s Political Masturbation in Riyadh……….

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The deposed and exiled former president of Yemen Hadi has come out publicly and announced May 17 for the start of a “dialog” on Yemen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He even almost looked official, almost serious, in the media photos.

There will be no dialog on Yemen in Riyadh. Hadi will not have the two most powerful men in Yemen to talk with: neither Houthi nor the deposed Saleh will show up. Nor the powerful Southern Independence movement, whose leaders supported the Saudi bombing and cluster munition attacks on (North) Yemen when they were mostly done over Sanaa and Saada. Nor the Al Qaeda AQAP that now controls more territory as a result of the Saudi bombing campaign.

I immediately suggested that the only “dialog” will be between Mr. Hadi and Mr. Hadi, i.e. himself. A sort of vocal political masturbation for the former runaway president. I also suggested he could install a large mirror so that he can look himself in the eyes and launch his monolog, pretending he is actually in a dialog with other than his Saudi hosts and masters.

Two things have been clear to me for at least six weeks now: (1) Abdrabuh Hadi (Al Zombie) is a walking dead politically: he will never return to Sanaa, nor will he ever rule any part of Yemen; (2) there will be no dialog in Riyadh with his participation or that of his foreign minister Yassin who has been urging more Saudi bombing of the Yemeni people. Even Mr. Bahah has almost crossed that line with his moving closer to the position of the Saudi masters.

Which means that any “dialog” on Yemen can only be held in some non-GCC country. With the possible exception of Oman which wisely avoided getting involved in this Foolish Storm over Yemen. And under the supervision of some international figure (LOL no, not Tony Blair)

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Phony Arab Fear of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Catharsis and Kumbaya at Camp David………

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“The Obama administration is scrambling for reassurances it can present this month at a Camp David summit meeting to persuade Arab allies that the United States has their backs, despite a pending nuclear deal with Iran. Officials at the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department have been meeting to discuss everything from joint training missions for American and Arab militaries to additional weapons sales to a loose defense pact that could signal that the United States would back those allies if they come under attack from Iran. Over mahi-mahi at the Pentagon two weeks ago, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter polled a select group of Middle East experts for advice on how the administration could placate Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, all of which fear the nuclear deal, according to several attendees………………..”

First (of all): it is not an “Arab” fear of the nuclear deal. Ask most Arabs from Baghdad through Amman to Algiers and Tetouan, ask 250 million of them and they will not express any fear of this deal. Arabs have lived with a nuclear and aggressive Israel for decades without expressing any fear of it either.

Second: a part of the small minority of all Arab who live on the Persian-American Gulf express disapproval of the nuclear deal (not counting the majority of the population who are South Asian expat laborers). Many of them don’t know its details and look at it from a sectarian view and in some cases whatever their government propaganda tell them.

Third: the rulers of the GCC Gulf states are not afraid of the “nuclear” deal either. They are worried about expanding Iranian influence in Iraq and Syria and Lebanon, and potentially in Yemen. A legitimate worry. Only about three of them (only about three regimes) are also afraid of lifting the Western blockade from the Iranian people which will strengthen their economy.

Fourth: These three (or four) regimes are pretending to be afraid of a nuclear deal only as a bargaining chip: the same position as Benyamin Netanyahu takes. The last time Iran attacked a neighbor was almost three hundred years ago. When was the last time Iran was attacked by a neighbor? In 1980, by Baathist Iraq with active help from others in the neighborhood. The Baathists used WMD in that war.

Fifth: the mullahs don’t directly attack a neighbor, unlike Baathist Iraq (attacked Iran and Kuwait), unlike Saudi Arabia (attacked Yemen at least three times: 1930s, 2009, 2015 and attacked Kuwait once in 1920). Even so, the Persian-American Gulf is clogged with powerful Western navies that can deter any conventional attack.

Sixth: Even if we ‘buy’ the claims about Iran’s nuclear program. When was the last time a country used nuclear weapons in ts own neighborhood? Is there a regime so stupid as to contemplate doing that, across its border? Are there regimes audacious enough to use it as an excuse to keep an economic blockade on a neighbor?

No doubt Mr. Obama knows all this, or he should know it when he sits down with his guests. Which also makes one wonder: why not also invite Netanyahu to Camp David, since he claims the same worries and concerns? Then Mr. Obama can have his catharsis with both. It should be fun: Likudniks and antisemitic Wahhabis singing Kumbaya at the camp. 

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Watermelon Country: Gulf Wahhabis Go Bananas over Iranian Shi’a Melons……..

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Some years ago a strange urban legend spread in Cairo. The media spread stories of Israeli girls, female tourists, who traveled to Egypt for the purpose of injecting Egyptian men with HIV-AIDS virus through sexual intercourse. Eventually the story died down.
Now a similar urban legend is spreading across some of the Persian Gulf social media. Iran is a major source of fruits and vegetables for the Gulf region. The story is that exported Iranian watermelon is ‘deliberately’ injected with chemicals that would make presumably everybody in the GCC states as smart (or as dumb) as Dhahi Khalfan (the clownish deputy head of the Dubai Police and a strong advocate of the theory). Or as Faisal Al Qassem, a loquacious Syrian opportunist who works for the media of Qatari potentates. Or as some Gulf Salafi activists who jumped at the chance with their own conspiracy theories.

Their worst fear is no doubt that the mullahs have developed a chemical that could convert anybody exposed to it into a Shi’a. Imagine, eat Iranian melon and risk becoming a Shi’a heretic.

Some Gulf tribal Salafis have gone literally bananas, gone almost ape, over this new Persian Safawi Magian Zoroastrian Rifidhi Heretic threat to regional security. Others have started to make fun of the whole thing.


This new bout of Iranophobia (or Shia-phobia) paranoia was activated by the discovery of some holes in the skin of imported melons. Some countries have withdrawn the melons from the market for testing, which is probably a reasonable thing to do.
But a conspiracy to inject chemicals in the melons? Is it possible that a chemical-injected watermelon can make us any dumber than we are? I doubt it………….

That is not why we sometimes fondly call our region: watermelon countries………..


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Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Roving Francois Hollande: France Will Not Join Gulf GCC, Catharsis at Camp David………

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“France’s tough line in talks with Iran and a similar analysis to Gulf Arab states on regional crises has sealed strategic new links in the Middle East that will be cemented when President Francois Hollande attends a regional leaders’ summit next week. Those ties, which Paris has sought to nurture since Hollande came to power in 2012 – were highlighted on Thursday when Qatar agreed to buy French-made Rafale fighter jets in a 6.3-billion-euro ($7 billion) deal. Hollande travels to Doha on May 4 to sign the contract before heading to Riyadh at King Salman’s invitation to attend a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)…………..”

French Socialist leader Francois Hollande has been flying all over our region. He has been spending so much time flying to Persian Gulf capitals that he is almost an honorary member of the GCC. He has also been making the right noises about the nuclear deal with Iran and about Syria and the Saudi bombing of Yemen. All of which makes him a welcome guest.

Mostly he has been showing his support for the ‘right’ leaders and (coincidentally) signing lucrative weapons and other contracts. He is already invited (not sure by whom, maybe the Saudis) to attend the next Gulf GCC summit of leaders as an honorary member. That will be just before the leaders head to Camp David for their session of catharsis with Barack Obama.

The French president wants to make sure our princes and potentates know where he stands on (socialist) principle: smack on the side that has the most purchasing power. He also wants to give them some pointers on how to properly deal with the les Americains.

I expect that once he loses the next presidential election in France, M. Hollande will follow in the footsteps of former British (New Labor) leader Tony (the Weasel) Blair. He will become a roving world lobbyist for two of the world’s Wahhabi powers, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The third Wahhabi power, the Caliphate of ISIS or DAESH is in no mood right now to receive M. Hollande in Raqqa or Mosul. Ditto for Al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula- AQAP. But give it some time, and maybe some money.

FYI: No, France has no intention of applying to formally join the Gulf GCC, unlike the escaped former president of Yemen. You see, the wine industry is very important in France, as important as the hijab and burqa are seen as menacing on the streets of Paris. Besides, France will have to wait in line behind Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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A Solution: Hadi to Join European Union, Erdogan to Join Gulf GCC……..

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During the turmoil of the Arab uprisings of 2011, the Saudi king came up with an interesting idea, what Americans would call “a dilly”. He invited two unlikely Arab kingdoms to join the Gulf Cooperation Council– GCC: humorless Jordan and faraway but certainly more exotic Morocco. Even though the two countries are not located on the Persian Gulf, unlike for example Iraq or Iran or even the United States Navy. Anyway, I opined loudly and persistently that it will never happen, that it was a knee-jerk reaction by the Saudis to the Arab turmoil around them. I suggested that they will end up at most with a sort of watered-down ‘association’. As it happened the Arab turmoil turned the wrong way, and the princes used their money wisely to influence events in Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Or so they thought. There was even some loose talk of membership and maybe association with military-ruled Egypt. Yemen was never mentioned at that time.

The invitations to the kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan were quietly shelved. The assumption was that Yemen can also forget about it. Now that the country is in turmoil, its former president is on the run, the issue comes up. Reports claim that the former president AbdRabuh Hadi is formally applying for membership of the GCC. The man is not even the true president as his term expired last year and he decided to unilaterally extended his own term, in true Arab fashion. I suppose it could be a way to show that he and his ministers are acting like a real ‘government’. Even after escaping first Sanaa and then Aden to the safety of Riyadh.


It will be interesting if the Saudis encouraged them to apply, or if they decided to spring a spring surprise while the Saudis are busy in their own power struggle. It is possible they resorted to this after failing to raise the expected popular militia in support of the air campaign: the opposition to Houthi-Saleh is mainly Southern Independence, Al Qaeda, and some tribal elements.

Either way, his chances of joining the GCC now are zero, mainly because Hadi will never return and rule in Sanaa. He has as much chance to join the GCC as Erdogan of Turkey has of joining the European Union. This is not to say that Yemen does not fit into the GCC, culturally and historically it could fit. But Yemen has three handicaps:
(1) it is a republic not a monarchy, presumably with an elected president;
(2) it is very poor, and;
(3)it is a large country that has more citizens than Saudi Arabia. Which means it can be the most populous country of the GCC, with all the economic and financial pressures that would create on the rest of the GCC.

So, if I were a joking type, which I probably am not, I would suggest that Yemen Hadi has a better chance to join Europe than the GCC and Erdogan Turkey has a better chance to join the GCC than the European Union. I bet you know where this is leading……….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Persian Gulf: Local Powder Keg, Western Market Opportunity……..

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“In Yemen, “Saudi Arabia is using F-15 fighter jets bought from Boeing. Pilots from the United Arab Emirates are flying Lockheed Martin’s F-16″ in sorties in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, wrote the Times. U.S. arms manufacturers have opened up offices in several Arab capitals, and reportedly expect additional orders from regional countries for “thousands of American-made missiles, bombs and other weapons” to replenish “an arsenal that has been depleted over the past year,” according to The New York Times. In an earnings call leaked to The Intercept last month, Lockheed Martin CEO Marillyn Hewson stressed the company’s goals to increase international sales, particularly in the Middle East. “A lot of volatility, a lot of instability, a lot of things that are happening” in the Middle East are potential “growth areas”………….”

In 1979, after the mullahs and their temporary secular allies overthrew the Shah of Iran, they made a nearly-fateful decision. They canceled all pending weapons contracts with the United States (that was before the Hostage Crisis). The decision was partly driven by ‘revolutionary’ zeal, and based on the naive assumption that they were safe from external attack and that they could influence the region with their revolutionary message and rhetoric.
Next year Saddam Hussein did something that quickly disabused them of that rosy view. Saddam saw an opportunity in the turmoil within Iran and made his own fateful decision by invading southwestern Iran. That war disappointed all expert predictions as it lasted eight years and bankrupted Iraq to the extent that Saddam invaded Kuwait to loot its wealth. We all know that story is still unfolding in Iraq and across the region (and to some extent within Iranian political circles).
Suddenly our once peaceful Gulf looked quite menacing. Meanwhile, with the two Persian Gulf superpowers, Iran and Iraq, otherwise occupied, the smaller countries started building up their own arsenals, to supplement the American Umbrella. Now Saudi Arabia, UAE and other GCC states are major weapons markets for the West (and the East). The Iranian mullahs probably salivate at the quality and quantity of state-of-the-art Western weapons that their smaller neighbors to the south can get. Only the Israelis get better weapons than the GCC states, and that is certainly deliberate American policy.

The mullahs will probably have to keep on salivating: Western weapons are unlikely to be available to Iran any time soon. That is not all bad. They have managed to develop their own vast weapons industry, as well as a credible space program. Which means they have locally mastered the sciences and technology needed. For a country the size of Iran, it makes sense to focus on domestic production. Besides, they have not done so bad in terms of regional influence, even without F-15 and F-16 warplanes and shared Western intelligence.

I am tempted to assert that it would be better for the other Gulf states to develop their own weapons industries. But there may be a small problem with that. Where would the princes and potentates, and their families, get the huge amounts of money that the weapons bribes commissions provide?

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Weird Saudi War on Yemen: Reluctant Allies, a Ceasefire Prank………

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“Saudi Arabia’s resumption of airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen on Wednesday, only hours after it abruptly declared a halt to most military operations, reflected the difficulty of finding a political solution to the crisis. It also showed the challenges facing the Obama administration as it increasingly relies on allies in the Middle East. Senior Saudi officials made clear on Wednesday that they had not formally declared an end to bombing………”

Saudi behavior in their war on Yemen is getting weirder almost by the day:

First, they demanded that former president General Hadi who has escaped from Sanaa then from Aden be reinstated. He presided over part of Yemen, his allies were quite corrupt, and he is not liked because he invited foreign bombings and invasion of his country. I have told them, nay fatwa-ed, in postings here that Hadi will never return to Sanaa (no matter how long he travels لا صنعاء ولو طال السفر ), most likely not even to Aden. Apparently they did not listen.

Second, they invited Turkey and Pakistan and Egypt to join the assault on Yemen. Only Egypt was partly amenable, and the humorless Kingdom of Jordan to a limited extent.

Third, this war is presumably led by new defense minister Prince Muhammad, son of King Salman, who is in his twenties. Highly unlikely that he is ‘leading’ or strategizing the campaign: he has been on the job only a few weeks. I’d bet the farm, if I had a farm, that he is being strongly advised by others, mainly foreigners, on strategy.

Fourth, they’ve spent a month bombing cities, infrastructure and military installations, killing many Yemenis and wounding more. Yet they claim they were doing it for the Yemeni people. They warned of an Iranian “presence” in Houthi Yemen, yet nobody could locate a single Iranian soldier or Revolutionary Guard or bricklayer anywhere in Yemen.

Fifth, the bombing campaign has failed. The Saudi king issued a decree inviting or authorizing the National Guard NG to join the battle. The NG is a ground force owned by Prince Meteb (Muteb if you will) bin Abdullah, who inherited it from his late father King Abdullah. Maybe they were setting him up for a medal.

Sixth, one day later they declared that their military strikes on Yemen have ended.

Seventh, within hours of the declaration of cessation of bombing they resumed bombing Yemen. Confusing moves by the confused; or maybe it was a prank.

Eighth, there are reasonably credible reports that other GCC states are in this adventure reluctantly. The United Arab Emirates, UAE, is reported to be unhappy about it. Oman has wisely refused to join this Wahhabi crusade. The other Gulf potentates are sort of barely in it, but it is really a Saudi-American operation.

Ninth, very important, they have no shortages of the best weapons that the western powers can manufacture and export. Can it tip the balance against the lightly-armed Houthis? Maybe it can, but the war is confined to one-sided aerial bombing………

And that is where it stands………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Jabhat Al Qaeda of Syria: Are Saudis and Turks Selling it to America?……….

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“Al Mukalla was not the only victory of an al-Qaeda affiliate in recent weeks. In northern Syria, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, led an attack force of between 4,000 and 5,000 jihadis to capture the provincial capital of Idlib whose Syrian army garrison was overwhelmed. Saudi sources revealed that Saudi Arabia and Turkey had both given their backing to Jabhat al-Nusra and other extreme jihadis in seizing Idlib. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states seem intent on rebranding Jabhat al-Nusra and its clones as wholly different from Islamic State (Isis) and therefore acceptable as a potential ally. Al-Nusra may not publicly revel in its own atrocities as does Isis, but otherwise it differs little from it in ideology and tactics. Created by Isis in 2012, it split from the parent movement and fought a bloody inter-rebel civil war against it in early 2014, but today there are worrying signs of cooperation. According to accounts from the Syrian opposition, it was al-Nusra that allowed Isis fighters to take over in recent days most of Yarmouk Palestinian camp a few miles from the centre of Damascus……………..”

A few years when Jabhat Al Nusra emerged, I called it, quite seriously and correctly, Jabhat Al Qaeda of Syria. Knowing its roots and its ideology and its sources of men and money. “Moderate” Syrian opposition leaders across the Turkish border were furious: claiming it was a patriotic militia fighting for freedom. As were few American travelling senators. But all I had to do was read how Wahhabis and Salafis on the Persian Gulf reacted to its emergence. A no brainer, as they say.
It didn’t take long for the Nusra Front to shed its mask, even before the old man in the cave of Al Qaeda designated it the only legitimate subsidiary in Syria.

Now it appears the Saudi princes and ruling Turkish fundamentalists, the Wahhabis and the Ottomans, are trying to rehabilitate it in American eyes. Apparently they have finally given up on the useless dysfunctional Free Syria (Salfi) Army. And on the other entities they have tried to form in Turkey and in Jordan. No doubt some patriotic senators in the U.S. will jump at the chance, all memories of September 11 fading. The “enemy” now is someone else, someone Al Qaeda also opposes.
Some media are now speculating that Turkey and Saudi Arabia will launch an invasion of Syria in order to “liberate” it. That would come after the Saudis finish destroying Yemen with their unlimited supply of bombs thrown from a safe distance of 40 thousand feet.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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