Category Archives: GCC

Arab Revolutions, Culture, Egypt, GCC, Humor, Muslim Brotherhood, UAE

UAE: Liberator of Egypt Retires from Twitter……….

      

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Liberator of Egypt and his ‘nooq’: proud family man


I noted in an earlier post that Dhahi Khalfan, chief of Dubai Police, might be part of a high-level delegation of UAE potentates that visited Egypt. As it turned out, he was not. General Khalfan is quite a character. He is allegedly widely considered the true “liberator of Egypt” by many of his compatriots, including some UAE journalists and academics and intellectuals who are not currently on trial or serving prison terms for their political views. He hinted last week that his battles on Twitter were instrumental in provoking the military coup led by General Al Sisi that overthrew the elected Muslim Brotherhood regime led by Mr. Morsi and replaced it with some Mubarak veterans.

It seems, from the photo posted above, that Mr. Khalfan may have retired from Twitter and other social media in order to spend more time with his family. You might notice him standing proudly, facing his four camels (called nooq نوق in Arabic in this particular case). Remember, they are four and only four of these “nooq”.

FYI: I have always written here that the camel is one of my favorite animals. It still is.
Happy Ramadan
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC

Petroleum Bidding Starts for Egypt………

      

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UAE potentates in Cairo inspecting their new acquisition

“Two of the Persian Gulf’s richest monarchies pledged $8 billion in cash and loans to Egypt on Tuesday, a decision that was aimed not only at shoring up a shaky transitional government, but also at undermining their Islamist rivals and strengthening their allies across a newly turbulent Middle East. The robust financial aid package announced by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates came a day after the Egyptian military killed dozens of Muslim Brotherhood members protesting last week’s military ouster of Egypt’s Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi. The aid package underscored a continuing regional contest for influence between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, one that has accelerated since the Arab uprising upended the status quo and brought Islamists to power………………The Saudis and Emiratis were nearly buoyant at the military’s move to oust Mr. Morsi………………………..”

Media report that Kuwait’s government has just joined Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the GCC bid for the Egyptian military. The bid so far is for a total of $12 billion. Qatar is unlikely to join now that its allies were overthrown by the military coup. Bahrain doesn’t have the money, besides it is paying as much as it can for imported mercenaries and American and British Public Relations firms and lobbyists.
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Politics, GCC, Persian Gulf

GCC Bestseller Book: Gulf Dynasties for Dummies, a Theory of Sustainable Looting……………

      

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I posted the other day, only half-seriously, about a black and yellow book titled “The Presidency for Dummies” to be read by Egypt’s military-appointed interim figurehead president Adly Mansour, General Al Sisi and Mr. Morsi. From that it was just a matter of hours before I realized that other countries need such a book. I scanned the map and my eyes stopped immediately at the Gulf (Persian Gulf not Gulf of Mexico nor Gulf of Maracaibo). How about “Gulf Dynasties for Dummies”?

“Gulf Dynasties for Dummies” could especially benefit the rulers of Saudi Arabia (although I don’t consider these rulers Gulf people). They can learn how to restock their inventory of princes: how to more quickly dump the older princes for newer models. They might want to cut back the mandatory 8-12 months between princely demises, make it 3-6 months. A crown prince should have a period of six months, maximum, to get to the throne. Otherwise, it is away to some New York clinic, rehab in Morocco, then adios Zapata. Within a couple of years, they’d have no choice but to pick younger princes to rule. Unfortunately that would be good for select branches (legs and bellies as they are called) of the ruling Al Saud family but it might screw the people real good. They’d be stuck with another generation or two of Ali Baba’s enemies.

The book might teach the ruling family gangsters of Bahrain about the Theory of Sustainable Looting. How to keep power and loot the country without help from foreign mercenaries (from Jordan, Pakistan, Syria, etc) or the Saudi religious police (Society for the Propagation of Vice). They might learn that sustained the looting of a country is more an art than an exercise in brute force. Especially a country with limited resources where every bit of land and every dollar of revenue and foreign aid should count.

Such a book might even come in handy for the ruling Bin Zayed Al Nahayan potentates, owners of Abu Dhabi and the UAE.
They have the advantage of safely ignoring about 90% of the population of their country: these are temporary foreign expatriates who don’t count in the political game. Most of them don’t understand or speak Arabic anyway (I mean the expats not the shaikhs). Not yet. All they have to worry about are the 10% of the population who are citizens. Still, they can’t seem able to handle these small numbers either. Hence the build-up of the special mercenary force of Colombians, Australians, White South Africans, possibly Israelis, and others.
Or maybe I should alter the title of the book to “Dynasties for Gulf Dummies”? Or how about “Dummy Dynasties for the Persian Gulf”?
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC

Saudi and UAE Potentates Bidding for Control of Egypt, Support for SCAF Militicracy………..

      

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“Those Egyptians who rejoiced in Cairo last week forget that the same police who brutally attacked anti-Mubarak protesters in 2011 and then disappeared from the streets returned instantly when the possibility of reinstating the old regime presented itself. And they showed great competence in brutally repressing those they disagree with. Those same rejoicing Egyptians forget that after the 2011 revolution, the army thanked the Egyptian people and told them to go home, leaving the country’s government to an unelected junta. Now, these same rejoicing masses have given the military an excuse to stage a coup and decide the fate of the country. No country did more to undermine Mr. Morsi’s government and celebrate its fall than Saudi Arabia. The Saudis understand that the threat that the Egyptian democratic experiment once posed to Saudi autocracy is gone……………….”

It seems there is a Gulf GCC bidding war to buy Egypt:
This morning the potentates of the UAE announced a $3 billion aid for Egypt. That is not new: they promised the same amount in 2011 but never delivered after Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood won the presidency. They were bribing the military SCAF to forget about holding elections.
This morning the Saudi potentates also announced a $5 billion aid package for Egypt. They had also promised something like that two years ago but never delivered after Morsi won the presidency.
The Qataris are sulking and the shaikhs of Bahrain have not announced how much they will be bidding for Cairo, yet. The beauty of it is that neither the Bin Zayed Al Nahayan (UAE) nor the Al Saud need to have their Senate or Congress vote for the money. Mainly because neither has an elected legislature. Which exactly how they want Egypt and every other Arab country to remain.
It looks like the Mubarak days may be back. Now that is democracy we can all live with.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, UAE

UAE High-Level Delegation Seeks a Victory March in Cairo………..

      

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Speaking of Dummies books, Arab media report that the UAE is planning to send a “high-level” delegation to Egypt. Somehow the shaikhs seem to think Egyptians have plenty of time for social visits in between riots, street battles, and trying to form a government.
There are conflicting reports as to who will lead this high-level delegation or whether they will be carrying sacks of cash. One of my Abu Dhabi sources claims it may be headed by chief of Dubai police and shadow foreign minister of the UAE former Staff Sergeant Dhahi Khalfan. She reports that Khalfan believes his tweets helped trigger the anti-Morsi protests and the military putsch that overthrew the Muslim brotherhood. She reports the delegation aims to set up tents in Tahrir in a show of solidarity for the military and the overthrow of Morsi. Another source insists one of the ruling Bin Zayed Al Nahayan brothers will head the delegation. The shaikhs, she reports, may land at Cairo wearing General Al Sisi t-shirts.
My other Cairo source reports that Egyptians are not excited about this UAE delegation. Some of them think the Abu Dhabi shaikhs are in a hurry to march in their own victory parade in Cairo. Others think they are trying to rub it in the Qatari wound, adding insult to injury. Some say it might be a message to the Saudis or the Iranians, or both. Others wonder if General Ahmed Shafiq, the old Mubarak crony who advises the Al Nahayan (not sure WTF on what) will be part of the delegation, if the shaikhs will nominate him for president of Egypt.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, GCC, Syria, Weapons deals

Of MANPADS and Syrian Salafis and Gulf Potentates……….

      

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“The main conduit runs from Turkey into northern Syria, where the rebels control swathes of land, including all the main border crossings. Large shipments of arms come mainly from Qatar, which flies in weapons from Libya, an ally that was plentifully supplied by the Qataris during the uprising two years ago against Muammar Qaddafi. Turkish intelligence agents accompany the weapons into liberated parts of Syria, to be handed over to chosen groups, such as Liwa al-Tawheed, a large one active around Aleppo. The arms are distributed down the chain. Rebel commanders say Turkey’s fairly open-door policy also lets arms provided by private donors be smuggled in. Some come from Libyan revolutionaries, others from rich Salafist sheikhs in the Gulf. A black market functions energetically, too. That may explain some of the sophisticated anti-tank missiles seen in rebel hands. The New York Times has reported that Qatar has supplied some man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), despite American pleas that they should not.………………”

Funny: these weapons, the MANPADS are not manufactured in Qatar of Saudi Arabia. They are made in the West, mainly the USA, and sold to these potentates normally with restrictions on their re-export. So, if they abuse their weapons, break their contracts, just stop selling it to them. You’d think at least The Economist knows that, even if the Western governments did not.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Syria

Saudi Goals in Syria, Syrian Goals in Syria: about Democracy and Freedom………

      

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“Saudi Arabia has long urged the West to arm the Syrian rebels as they battle forces loyal to President Bashar Assad. In an interview with SPIEGEL, he explains why. He also says Europe should change its strategy in nuclear negotiations with Iran. SPIEGEL: Your Highness, Saudi Arabia provides Syrian rebels with both money and weaponry. What is the kingdom’s strategic aim?
Turki: The immediate downfall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the immediate stop of “the killing machine,” as King Abdullah described Bashar-Al-Assad’s response to the demands of his people.
SPIEGEL: Troops from the Shiite radical group Hezbollah, supported by Iran, have joined the fight in support of Assad and could soon begin marching on Aleppo. Are the rebels not currently facing failure?
Turki: For the last two years, the regime and its supporters have been claiming victory with any advance they make on the ground. The Syrian people are determined to achieve what they aspired to when they began their protest…..………….”

Also sprach Prince Turki Al Faisal, former chief of Saudi Intelligence, former (briefly) Ambassador to Washington, currently man-about-towns and conferences and symposiums and overall bon vivant, sort of. No doubt, some of the Syrian people want to achieve their revised goals of their uprising. Originally it was more freedom and democracy. After the Wahhabi princes showered Syria with their petro-money, their sectarianism, and their desperate Paradise-seeking horny lost young men, the Syrian uprising became a sectarian civil war. The goal became to establish a ‘kingdom’ that is a cross between the Saudi kingdom and the state of the Taliban.
General Salim Idriss, nominal boss of the Free Syrian Salafi Army, may have other plans, but he only controls the rooms he uses to meet Western politicians and advisers, for now. General Manaf Tlass, ex-buddy of Bashar Al-Assad had his Saudi debut, complete with a photographed Umrah hajj, then vanished. Probably like the rest of them he is in some 7-star hotel waiting for the results of the bloody Syrian Lotto. Like the Salafis, Jihadists, Muftis, and other 5-star exiles, he is praying toward NATO headquarters in Brussels (or maybe Mons, Belgium), if at all.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, GCC, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria

GCC Cuts Livelihood of Lebanese Shi’as and Waits for Godot, Desecrating ‘Allah’……….

      

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“Members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah who are residing in Gulf Cooperation Council states will pay the price for the Shiite movement’s military role in Syria against freedom fighters.
A GCC statement, citing a ministerial council decision, said the measures will affect Hezbollah members’ “residency permits, and financial and commercial transactions.” The statement urged the Lebanese government to “assume its responsibilities toward the behavior of Hezbollah and its illegal and inhumane practices in Syria and the region.” The six-member bloc strongly condemned the flagrant intervention of Hezbollah in Syria and its participation in shedding the blood of Syrian people. The statement came after the Saudi Cabinet condemned Hezbollah’s “blatant intervention” ……………” Arab News (Saudi)

“The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) took another step. It decided to hit where it hurts, threatening Lebanese Shia by cutting off their livelihoods and forbidding them from working in the GCC under the pretext that they support Hezbollah. The GCC hopes this will lead to a popular campaign by the Lebanese Shia to pressure Hezbollah and force it to withdraw from the Syrian war and stop supporting the regime. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) took another step. It decided to hit where it hurts, threatening Lebanese Shia by cutting off their livelihoodsThe GCC also hopes that the step will increase the pressure on the Lebanese state in general (which, coincidentally, parallels Israeli thinking in all of its wars against Hezbollah in Lebanon). The GCC and their sponsors also hope for an anti-Hezbollah revolution to erupt in Lebanon…………….”

This probably means that Lebanese Shi’as will be targeted for collective punishment; they almost certainly use “Hezbollah” to mean Lebanese Shi’as. A way to use economics to apply sectarian political pressure on Lebanon. Persian Gulf states often tend to inflict collective punishment (I call them dumb punishment) during crises. Hezbollah defeats their favorite Salafi militias of the FSA and expatriate Lebanese Shi’as pay the price.
The ruling shaikhs of the UAE have been doing it for a couple of years, summarily expelling Lebanese Shi’a families long in the country (90% of UAE residents are temporary foreigners, including laborers and imported mercenaries anyway). Bahrain’s regime of course probably does not allow any Shi’as in to start with, and would love to get rid of its own majority Shi’as (it also imports thousands of foreign mercenaries to keep them repressed). A few tribal Salafis in Kuwait staged a “camera” burning of a Hezbollah banner, perhaps not realizing they also burnt the name “Allah”, something they always advise others never to do.
The GCC are also telling their citizens to stay out of Lebanon for security reasons (as if Bahrain and Qatif are very secure). Lebanon is the closest affordable summer retreat for tens of thousands of Gulf citizens. That would hurt both GCC citizens and Lebanon.
The joke is what is said here that: “Lebanon is urged to curb Hezbollah for its inhumane practices in the region”. Imagine the tribal potentates accusing anybody else of ‘inhumane’ practices. Choppers of heads, crucifixions, home raids, tortures, etc. That is like Saudi Arabia and Qatar complaining that Syria is undemocratic (probably true, but…….).

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Politics, GCC, Kuwait

Kuwait Constitutional Court Ruling: a Tough Dilemma for the Tribal Islamist Opposition…………….

      

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The Constitutional Court of Kuwait has closed one door for the opposition while leaving another face-saving door ajar for them. The court ruled that the one-man one-vote system that was introduced last year was constitutional but it ruled that the current parliament (voted December 2012) should be dissolved and new elections be held within two months.
The opposition, which is dominated by tribal Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood with support from Wahhabi-Liberals and some secularists, is facing a dilemma. It looks like the one-man one–vote, their main target, is here to stay. They must decide whether to contest the coming elections or boycott and lock themselves and their allied tribes out of the political system again. After all, the core Islamists and tribals among them were close allies of the government ruling “elites” for several decades during which the secular liberals (and the Shi’as) were both cast out in the wilderness, their political institutions repressed.
The opposition shot itself in the foot early on when it dominated the last parliament, weakening their own prospects by going blatantly tribal and sectarian. Most of their members succumbed to pro-Saudi tribal and Salafi instincts, and focused on the Shi’a minority of Kuwait, about 30% of the citizens, for special discriminatory attention. They adopted divisive sectarian political tactics that may have ensured their own marginalization in the long run.
If they now boycott, it is likely that some of the tribal members will split and decide to participate in the contests and the voting. If they decide to contest the elections, some of them may also decide against it and split. Either way, they would lose because the one-man one-vote tends to dilute the political strength of the tribal blocks. Their supporters usually vote along strictly tribal lines; their 5 votes per man/woman have been reduced to one vote. This system reduces the dominance of the large tribes and their (Sunni) Islamist allies and shifts the balance somewhat back toward the traditional influence of city folks, both Sunni and Shi’a.
 
My guess is that some of them will rejoin the political process. My experience with the tribal Salafis and Muslim Brothers of Kuwait has been that they are willing to dump principle for power. Their commitment to democracy is opportunistic but their commitment to the tribal, clan, and individual power is even stronger. After all, even with the new system of voting they still get a better deal than exists in Saudi Arabia or Bahrain, both regimes that the Kuwaiti opposition have strongly supported against the demands of the democratic opposition in both these Gulf countries.

(After writing this post it was announced that 23 former members of the opposition have voted to boycott the coming elections, for now. The next week will clarify things).

I add here the following links to some of my earlier posts on this topic of Kuwait politics:

Christmas on the Gulf: Jingle Bells and Salafi Beards and Reform in Kuwait

Kuwait Politics: Incompetent Government vs. Reactionary Opposition

The Kuwait Elections and the Shi’a Question and Wahhabi Liberals

Banning Demonstrations in Bahrain: Advice from the Kuwait Opposition

Saudi Wahhabi Shaikhs Discussing Recent Events in Kuwait

A Small Wahhabi Protest in Kuwait: Love-Hate-Need-BS Complex

GCC Summit: a Salafi Tribal Dream Team, Taqiyya and a Real Existential Threat

Kuwait Protests? about Saudi Protests, Bahrain Protests, Salafi Uprising

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Politics, Bahrain, GCC, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

Dynasties: Changing the Guard in Qatar, Killing off the Old Guard in Saudi Arabia, Pickled Papa Doc in Bahrain…….

        

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“Change is afoot in the world’s richest nation, Qatar. Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and his Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, are said to be putting in place an ordered succession plan for the tiny Gulf emirate. The transition will see them leave a stage they have dominated for nearly two decades enabling the emir’s son Crown Prince Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and younger ministers to take charge. Rumours have been circulating for several months but in recent weeks, discreet communications have been passed on to various diplomats and leading businessmen alerting them that change is coming.………….”

This is, if true, an unusual event in the Gulf states. Unusual in any Arab country. I suspect the Emir of Qatar is having health issues, although there has been only one mention of this possibility in the media. Voluntary abdication is not common in the Gulf GCC states. That other involuntary kind of ‘abdication’ is quite common, as I noted in an earlier post about de Tocqueville of Qatar.
Which brings me to a couple of other interesting dynasties of the GCC states, probably the two most avaricious and most repressive of the Gulf ruling clans:

  • In Saudi Arabia they play a waiting game, as the older princes die off and are replaced with other older princes. It used to take a few years to dispatch one king and usher in a new one. From now on they will be likely rotating every few months. The current King Abdullah has buried two successive crown princes in one year, but his luck may be running out. The Saudi dynasty will probably go through the elderly princes for another decade or so. At some point the king may be 100 years old, on life-support and IVs when he ascends the throne. 
    The last elderly king will probably have to turn off the lights in Riyadh as he takes his last breath. Taxidermy is frowned upon in le royaume sans la Magie, which is a good thing.
  • In Bahrain the old prime minister, Khalifa Al Khalifa, has been in power and doing serious damage, essentially screwing the island almost, but not quite, like the late Papa Doc in Haiti. The imported foreign mercenary militias are his equivalent of the old Haitian Tonton Macoutes. For some 42 years, longer than Muammar Qaddafi ruled Libya. By now he probably smells like a pickled herring, and as oily, and possibly has the texture of over-aged smoked salmon. Nevertheless, he would like to continue looting the country, teargassing and imprisoning his way to death and a long tenure en enfer afterwords. With friendly help from other Gulf GCC potentates and the Western powers.

Cheers
mhg

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