Category Archives: GCC

Al Sisi in Abu Dhabi under Iranian Drones, Burning the Reichstag………

      


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Speaking
of Egypt and hooking up with the Gulf GCC:

I
fatwa here and now that it will not happen. Egypt will not become a member of the Gulf GCC. It just ain’t gonna happen, and that is all there is to it. That is also the fatwa I issued when the Saudi princes shocked everyone but not me by inviting humorless Jordan and floating Morocco to join the GCC. That was before they politely dis-invited them (is there a polite way, maybe an app to dis-invite someone?). The princes and the potentates often act as if they have no clue as to WhatTheFuck(1) is happening or will happen. So, I am saving them the trouble as a public service.


Speaking
of which. Generalisimo (sorry, Field Marshal) Al Sisi is already exploring his putative future domain. He is in Abu Dhabi visiting the UAE. Allegedly reportedly the potentates of Abu Dhabi shared with the Saudi princes the cost of financing the military coup d’etat that overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood and the ensuing police campaign that locked up anybody who is a member. No, the Reichstag was not burned down in Cairo, but pretty close to it. Egyptian media is speculating that he may resign as Minister of Defense next week in order to run for president. Yet he may have a problem: once he is not Minister of Defense, does not control the tanks officially, what authority will he have over the government? How can he guarantee a huge win (or, maybe 80%-85%)? How can he be sure of a win at all? Something for the General (sorry, Field Marshal) to think about.

The Iranians probably have their domestic drones flying right above his bald spot, getting the measure of the officer whom Morsi trusted. To his regret. 


——————
(1) Note: I don’t often use expletives, especially in composite form and the full WTF, but the potentates often inspire me. The best way I know to describe some of their statements and actions, succinctly.
 
Cheers
mhg

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GCC Egyptian Hook-Up Game: Saudis Looking for Love in All the Wrong Places……

      


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“Saudi Arabia is also now bruiting the induction of Egypt into the Gulf Cooperation Council, presumably with the proviso that Egypt will be allowed to extract enormous strategic rent from the GCC. In return, Egypt will protect the very wealthy but very weak GCC from Iran and Shiite Iraq, and from the Brotherhood. Anonymous Egyptian sources I saw quoted in the Egyptian press when I was there last week were speculating that if al-Sisi becomes president, he can bring in $240 billion in investments and aid from the Gulf………………..”

PAMP (Polygamous
Arab Male Potentates), seeking poor family-ruled Arab country that does
not believe in democracy, and is willing to send troops and security
agents when needed. Money is no object, up to a point. Preferably no
Shi’as or Hasidim or Haredim among the population.” Possible GCC Personal Want-Ad


That
PAMP mock want-ad reflects the state of Gulf GCC regimes since 2011. It is actually the state of the Saudi royal family, since it is the princes who have been flailing to grasp some accommodating Arab regime that can be invited to keep order when needed in exchange for money. From Jordan to Morocco, and now to Egypt.
 

Perhaps
they are better off staying with the U.S. Navy for external protection from any real or (more likely) imaginary foe. Whoever heard of the Egyptian navy? Or the Jordanian navy? Or the Moroccan navy? But protection from whom? What the princes really want is a land force for protection from their own people, protection from change: that is why they have hired mercenaries from Asia and Arab countries (Bahrain) and even Latin America and Australia (UAE).

Modern Egyptian military history, its effectiveness, is very iffy (I am being polite here). In spite of the heroics of Al Sisi. After all, the four wars with Israel were not exactly ringing victories, starting with the first defeat at the hands of the ragtag Haganah bands in 1948, what we call the Palestine War. Actually in that war five Arab armies were defeated by graduates of the European concentration camps and survivors of the butchery of the civilized world. It was all downhill from then.
They may have won their last campaign at home: the war Mr. Mubarak declared on Egyptian swine in 2009, the so-called War on Pigs. Egypt’s native swine, the country’s largest minority for thousands of years seem to have all but disappeared, reportedly eliminated. Long before anyone ever heard of Mohammed Morsi. Although some of them are probably hidden inside the government and the military, sanctioned within the bureaucracy.
 

The
Saudi princes are notoriously unstable (or maybe just stupid). They surprised everyone, perhaps even each other, by unilaterally inviting Jordan and Morocco to join the GCC in 2011. Then they spent the next couple of years trying to walk back from that stupid proposal.
Now they are toying with economically strapped Egypt, a country that keeps getting more crowded along the banks of the Nile. Egypt needs to stop and then reverse its population explosion, otherwise no GCC money can help. Besides, dreams of tens of billions are just that: dreams. They will get a few billion, but at a price of letting the Gulf princes and potentates pick their leaders (as they did in 2013 and 2014), and at the price of deciding their foreign policy. At the price of turning the country even more into a ‘watering’ hole for hungry and thirsty and, er, ‘socially’ frustrated and repressed Wahhabi men.
Here are some links to previous postings on this topic:

GCC Summit in December: Auld Lang Syne and L’Internationale

Bahrain Poised to Import Even More Jordanian Mercenaries?

Morocco and Jordan and GCC Constitutional Monarchy

Moroccans are from Mars, the GCC from Venus? Democracy and Humor

Saudi Leadership of GCC: Three Major Failures, Three Strikes but not Out, not yet

Gulf GCC: on Jordanian Accession, Roman Dinarius, Israeli Shekel, and Kosher Currency

Saudis in Denial: Expanded GCC? What Expanded GCC?

Expanded GCC? Picking Security over Economics, More on Black Magic

Gulf GCC: Moroccan Couscous Controversy, Jordanian Humor Controversy

Riyadh Marriage Proposal: GCC, Morocco, Jordan……

Freedoms the GCC will Bring to Morocco and Jordan……

Fatwas on GCC Expansion: Jordan, Morocco, and the Muftis

Cheers
mhg

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GCC Rifts amid Arab Unrest: Wild Attempts at Gulf Hegemony, Swallowing a Bone……

      


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“Rumours suggest the Saudis have quietly threatened to seal their border with Qatar, the emirate’s sole land link to the outside world, as well as to close Saudi airspace to Qatar-bound flights………… .Qatar, meanwhile, has served as a haven for fugitives from Egypt, including hardened jihadist extremists as well as besuited Brotherhood politicians. Al Jazeera’s Arabic channels, demonised in Egypt to the point that staff in its independently run English-language division are being tried as terrorists, have become lonely pulpits for the Brotherhood. Al Jazeera’s star preacher, Yousef al-Qaradawi, rails against Arab regimes that he says were complicit in the “crimes” of Egypt’s coup leaders. Mr Qaradawi lives happily in Qatar. An explanatory joint statement from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE accused Qatar of breaching a pledge, made by Sheikh Tamim in November, to tone down such invective and “abide by the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs”. Less officially they are said to be demanding the expulsion or extradition of Islamist exiles. On March 3rd a court in the UAE sentenced a Qatari doctor to seven years in prison for alleged conspiracy………………”

Tensions have always existed between the Gulf GCC countries, as they are expected when several states interact. It is silly to pretend otherwise. But the GCC potentates have always tried to pretend that there are no such tensions. The people, however, are smarter, people know better of course: at home we have always said that there are no secrets in Kuwait. That may also apply to the other Gulf states. Here is a summary of recent tensions that have surfaced, or resurfaced:


  • Qatar: Qataris are supposed to be the moderate ‘Wahhabis’, mostly. They have had long disputes with both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The past disputes with Bahrain have been over borders and territory. The disputes with the Al Saud princes have been more about politics. Don’t get me wrong: neither country is democratic. In fact none of the three are. The disputes have also been over relations with third parties (Iran, Egypt, Syria, Hezbollah, Gaza, Muslim Brotherhood) as well as about Qatari rebuffs of Saudi attempts at hegemony over the Gulf GCC states. The Qataris share a huge offshore natural gas field in the Persian Gulf with Iran, so their relations with the mullahs are mostly cordial. They have also adopted the role of financial and political supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, and this last one is what irks the Al Saud and Al Nahayan brothers now. The Qataris have given asylum to some Egyptian MB clerics and members, like Al Qaradawi, just as the Al Saud did in the 1950s and 1960s. No need to rehash the Saudi-instigated coup attempt in Qatar in the 1990s after which a group of senior Saudi intelligence officers were imprisoned in Qatar for many years. You can find something in one of my links below (or in my other GCC posts).
  • Bahrain has no dog in that specific fight but the regime obediently and subserviently follows the Al Saudi policies. The Saudi King can wake up tomorrow and issue a fatwa that it is Wednesday, and soon after a Bahrain decree will declare that, yes, tomorrow is Wednesday. Life is simple when you don’t have to decide for yourself, no?
  • Bahrain: they had some outstanding
    issues and claims with Iran under the Shahs, but that was finally
    settled with independence as an Arab state and the first election that
    followed. The country, however, has remained potentially politically
    volatile, with occasional domestic unrest related to strained ties
    between the rulers and those they ruled. At the peak of the Arab
    Uprisings which had reached Bahrain in 2011, the island (s) was invaded
    by forces from Saudi Arabia and some from the UAE. Presumably through an agreement with the ruling
    family, presumably. Yet dangling the perennial idea of an “Iranian threat” across the impenetrable armada of the U.S. Navy has served the rulers of Bahrain well with willing but naive American politicians. It has also changed the subject from democracy an equality to sectarianism. This has served the ruling family (and their elite tribal allies) with their Sunni population and around the Gulf.


  • UAE: They have had their own Saudi problems since before the seven emirates were joined. There are grievances over border territories usurped by Saudi Arabia. These problems occasionally emerge and create temporary tensions, as when the Saudis occasionally close border crossings and create a partial economic/trade blockade. The Emirates have had local Muslim Brotherhood -MB- activity for some time, but apparently the shaikhs and potentates were not aware of their extent until the recent two years. Especially when a bunch of academics from local universities came out in the open calling for political ‘reform’. They were summarily thrown in prison, their citizenship revoked (apparently it is a privilege bestowed not a birthright). Now, for more than a year UAE media have been focused on attacking the MB.
  • The UAE rulers are also reported to have heavily financed Egyptian groups opposed to the elected Mohammed Morsi government. I would not be surprised if Field Marshal Al Sisi appointed one of the Al Nahayan brothers (owners of the UAE) as one of his vice presidents and an Al Saud prince as his other vice president. Adly Mansour Al Zombie can be his real vice president. I am also only about three-quarters kidding.

  • Oman: I have often written here that Oman looks more across the seas: beyond the Gulf and across the Indian Ocean. They pay lip service to GCC integration and even less so to Arab affairs. Historically they have had footholds in East Africa (they ruled Zanzibar) and even toe-holds in India. They also have no use for the Wahhabi clerics who consider the faith of many Omanis some kind of heresy. In the worst of times Oman has managed to keep on good terms with the mullahs (oddly, they were also on very good terms with the Shah when he ruled Iran).

  • Kuwait: Has refused to officially and directly join the Saudi-UAE-Bahrain anti-Qatar circus. It is politically the most un-Saudi of the GCC (if you disregard some tribal links). It is politically the most complex of the GCC countries. There are certain checks and balances, although occasionally overlooked. There is a relatively old constitution of more than half a century that guarantees certain political and religious rights. There is also an active political life both in an elected legislature and also in private gatherings and in the outspoken media. It is the hardest Gulf place to control politically.
  • Kuwait was also the target of repeated Wahhabi military aggression and attempts at annexation. The last time was in 1920 when the Ikhwan, the Al Saud zealous militias, again sought to annex it to their new Kingdom without Magic. That invasion failed and I am quite thankful for that. As schoolchildren they used to take us on field trips to the Red Fort (in the Jahra oasis) where the last battle was fought. The old defensive wall around the old city was later torn down, a dumb (or maybe deliberate) mistake. Iraq also famously invaded in 1990 and Baathist forces were expelled by American forces in 1991. Iranian espionage networks have been arrested in the past. Memories are long along the Gulf.

  • Saudi Arabia: Need I say anymore? It is the source of most tensions along the Arab side of the Gulf. I am leaving Iraq and Iran out of this for now because they are not GCC, but all three together are quite a load. None of the three is a regional sweetheart by any standard. The Al Saud family seems to think the solution to their fears of the empowerment of their own people is to control more of their neighbors. In some cases it is like trying to swallow a bone: one can choke on it.


I attach here a few of my more recent posts on the Gulf GCC issues in case you have more time to waste:

Brotherhood of the GCC, Wahhabis of the GCC, Feuding Misfits of the GCC

GCC Summit in December: Auld Lang Syne and L’Internationale

Beggar Thy OPEC Neighbor: Oil and the Economics of Nuclear Programs

Gulf GCC Joint Police Force: DOA or WTF or BOTH?

Owning the GCC: What is in a Name? Burj WTF and Al Einstein

GCC Bestseller Book: Gulf Dynasties for Dummies, a Theory of Sustainable Looting

Cheers
mhg

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HH Shaikh Khalid bin Hamad Al Khalifa Endurance Championship……….

      


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“HH Shaikh Khalid bin Hamad Al Khalifa Endurance Championship will kick off at 7 am tomorrow (Saturday) in Bahrain International Endurance Village. Bahrain Royal Equestrian and Endurance Federation BREEF announced that the veterinary examinations for the 120 km and 84 km (qualifying) races were successfully completed today. The examinations were conducted by international experts and was attended by the Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates UAE and Ruler of Dubai HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and the Chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth and Sport, President of Bahrain Olympic Committee and Bahrain Royal Endurance Team Captain HH Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa……………..”
 

Now
ain’t that nice? I thought some of my readers might like to know about this. Chalk it up to ‘culture’ or ‘shaikhdomness’ or larceny, or genteel crimes against humanity in doses of tear gas and home raids and torture. With a large dose of apartheid thrown in. Take your pick.

This dude Nasser is a younger son of the ruler, younger than the crown
prince who is now long in the tooth. Apparently reportedly he is likely from a
younger wife of the ruler, allegedly preferred by the Saudi overlords of
Bahrain to the crown prince. The crown prince is seen as ‘soft’ on the
opposition, maybe because he wears glasses and is beardless and occasionally acts as if he wants to meet with them. The young Nasser looks predatory, with a sharp face, more hungry-looking: not the kind you’d want to go mountain-hiking with, and if you do you’d be advised to steer clear from any cliffs or steep drops. The opposition claim he has nothing against the torture of  detainees.
As long as he is not on the receiving end.
All allegations, of course. I have never met the guy, but I still would not go mountain-hiking with him.


Cheers
mhg

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Duke of York in Bahrain: No Tower of London Option for the Former Randy Andy…………

      


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“The Duke of York is due to start an official visit to the Middle Eastern state of Bahrain to promote the UK. The UK government asked Prince Andrew to make the trip, which begins on Tuesday, as part of Britain’s “Great” campaign to boost business and tourism…………..”

“HRH the Duke of York presented an Honorary OBE to Mr Khalid Al Zayani, Chairman of the Bahrain British Business Forum and Chairman of the GREAT British Week Steering Group. Mr Al Zayani was awarded an Honorary OBE in the 2013 Queen’s Birthday Honours List for services to UK business overseas and UK/Bahraini relations. Her Majesty The Queen gave permission for the honour to be presented to Mr Al Zayani during the Duke of York’s visit. The ceremony was attended by members of Mr Al Zayani’s family. British Ambassador Iain Lindsay congratulated Mr Al Zayani on receiving his honour, saying “I am delighted that HRH the Duke of York was able to present Khalid Al Zayani with his Honorary OBE.………….”

Prince Andrew, formerly dubbed Randy Andy (but that is okay: who of us wasn’t randy at that age?). Now edified as the Duke of York, he has been a regular visitor to the post-uprising occupied Bahrain, the Bahrain of home raids, mass arrests, torture, foreign mercenaries, and daily tear gas. Of course, like all visiting potentates he doesn’t see all that.
What else is there to do for some of these marginal but bored and possibly still greedy royals? They can’t lock them up in the Tower of London anymore, can they? Those were the days.

Cheers
mhg

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Chuck Hagel Going Gulf Native: Support for “Unique” Political Reform in Bahrain………

      


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“The United States, he vowed, will continue to guard “the free flow of energy and commerce” from the Persian Gulf and keep Iran nuclear-free, through the presence of 35,000 US military personnel or the (as-yet-unproven) regional missile defense system. Hagel also trumpeted the American commitment to “political reform” in the gulf region. But the Pentagon chief uttered not a word about the hundreds of Bahrainis languishing in prison—many without adequate medical care—for demanding the very rights he says they deserve. Bahrainis have engaged in nearly daily demonstrations against the Al Khalifa monarchy for the past three years. This resistance started on Valentine’s Day, 2011, when thousands gathered at the Pearl Roundabout in the capital city, Manama, to demand free and fair elections, real power for the popularly elected lower house of Parliament, the release of political prisoners and an end to government corruption. From the beginning, the monarchy has sought to suppress this activism with home raids, torture, show trials and lengthy prison sentences……………….”

It says: “Hagel also trumpeted the American commitment to ‘political reform’ in the gulf region”. Oh, it would be fun if he said that publicly in Riyadh. It would be even fun-ner if he said it wearing native attire (Gulf dishdasha or Saudi thobe and shmagh): the security agents would then suspect him of a native seeker and reform, converging on him. Then he would discover how truly reform-minded the ruling families of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are.

Cheers
mhg

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On the Persian Gulf: Shimon Peres Orates, Gulf Ministers Cheer, Tom Friedman Leaks, Abdu Sneers…………

      


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                           Video:
A Kenny G Holiday

“Israel’s president Shimon Peres secretly addressed 29 foreign ministers from Arab and Muslim countries during a Gulf security summit in Abu Dhabi two weeks ago, drawing a round of applause from the audience, an Israeli daily revealed Monday. Peres, reportedly speaking via video link from an office in Jerusalem with an Israeli flag behind him, discussed issues related to Iran, radical Islam and “his vision for world peace,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth. The paper said New York Times’ columnist Thomas Friedman attended the meeting and was behind the leak …………..”

Thomas Friedman devised the old so-called Arab Peace Plan that the Saudis stole and claimed their distracted king had devised. For some time after that Friedman seemed alienated from the Al Saud, confining his Arab contacts to airport taxi drivers named Abed or Abdu or Abboodi, depending on the particular Arab country he was visiting.
Now he seems to be back in from the cold in the Persian Gulf region. Maybe they want him to devise a new plan for the Gulf region. The potentates must need his help in the next Lebanese elections, wtf that is, and the coming Iraqi elections. The good news is that both Saudi surrogates Ayad Allawi (Iraq) and Sa’ad Hariri (Lebanon and Saudi Arabia) have about as much chance of leading their countries as I do of leading Israel or Bosnia.

Cheers
mhg

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From the Gulf with Wahhabi Love: Money to Al-Qaeda……

      


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“The money flows in via bank transfer or is delivered in bags or pockets bulging with cash. Working from his sparely furnished sitting room here, Ghanim al-Mteiri gathers the funds and transports them to Syria for the rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad. Mr. Mteiri — one of dozens of Kuwaitis who openly raise money to arm the opposition — has helped turn this tiny, oil-rich Persian Gulf state into a virtual Western Union outlet for Syria’s rebels, with the bulk of the funds he collects going to a Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda. One Kuwait-based effort raised money to equip 12,000 rebel fighters for $2,500 each. Another campaign, run by a Saudi sheikh based in Syria and close to Al Qaeda, is called “Wage Jihad With Your Money.”………………..”

I posted on this last June. Here is an excerpt from that posting, The Economics of Jihad in Syria:
 

Local Kuwait media report that the tribal Islamist opposition has called for a mobilization for war in Syria (they called it for Jihad in Syria). A bunch of former opposition tribal Islamist MP’s held a sort of tribal charity ball but stag, a large gathering of men to start a campaign to raise money to equip and arm 12 thousand ghazis (ghazi is Arabic for invader, raider, meaning here Jihadi) for Syria. They have called for every family (that listens to them) to equip and arm one Mujahid to go to Syria to fight. One of them suggested that 700 Dinars (about US $2400) would prepare and send a Jihadis to battle in Syria. (No idea if this amount covers one or multiple multiple wives). That of course does not cover the current cost of operations: food, bullets, shelter, bribes, booze, etc. All that minus current revenues: whatever can be looted as war booty or obtained as ransom for hostages the FSA and Jihadist militias like to take (they are avid hostage-takers and are still holding two Christian bishops and two other priests hostage, in addition to many Alawis and Shi’as)……..”
 

I must amend that last quote from my older posting. It is not “the opposition” that is supporting and collecting money for Al-Qaeda. It is the Islamist tribal branch of the opposition, what is effectively the Wahhabi branch, which in recent years has dominated the opposition, including a couple of the hairy worthies mentioned in the New York Times piece. There are outspoken “secularists” among the opposition who seek more freedom. But the Wahhabi branch of the opposition has been more outspoken and they rely on their tribal bases to get elected (cross-tribe voting is almost unheard of, it is even rarer than cross-sect voting). Liberals and secularists are divided and politically weaker since they are city folks and have no reliable tribal votes.
But then they are in retreat all across the Arab world, even in the few places where there are no tribes.

Cheers
mhg

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Peacenik Tom Friedman vs. Warmongering Arab Princes………

      


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“But there is something else that goes without saying, but still needs to be said loudly: We, America, are not just hired lawyers negotiating a deal for Israel and the Sunni Gulf Arabs, which they alone get the final say on. We, America, have our own interests in not only seeing Iran’s nuclear weapons capability curtailed, but in ending the 34-year-old Iran-U.S. cold war, which has harmed our interests and those of our Israeli and Arab friends. Hence, we must not be reluctant about articulating and asserting our interests in the face of Israeli and Arab efforts to block a deal that we think would be good for us and them………. . Some of our allies don’t share those “other” interests and believe the only acceptable outcome is bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and keeping Iran an isolated, weak, pariah state…………”

Friedman is going peacenik about Iran. He says: “Some of our allies don’t share those “other” interests and believe the only acceptable outcome is bombing……
No wonder some Iranians have come to believe that some of their neighbors are almost serial back-stabbers. They did it in the 1980s, when they threw their money and media and weapons behind Saddam Hussein’s invasion of southwestern Iran. When that one failed, Saddam did his own backstabbing: he turned his guns south against the Gulf. The Americans deployed and saved the day in 1990/91.
The potentates tried again to push for war a few years ago (remember the Wikileaks revelations?). They have been trying since then. A version of history is being repeated here, perhaps with Ben Netanyahu replacing Saddam as the instrument. They have come a long way from the Saddam Fan Club to the Ben Netanyahu Fan Club.

Cheers
mhg

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Pushing the Next American War on the next Muslim Country………

      


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“The heightened rhetoric came as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was to meet behind closed doors Wednesday with members of the Senate Banking Committee, which is weighing new sanctions against Iran’s energy and financial sectors, similar to a measure approved by the House in August. Kerry will appeal to skeptical lawmakers of both parties to wait at least a week before considering the new wave of punitive sanctions, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. He will ask them to put the sanctions a “temporary pause”………………”

It is not really about the Iranian nuclear program, stupid. I stopped believing that a few years ago, listening to Netanyahu and American senators and legislators and some Gulf media of the princes.
It is about the omnipotent Israeli lobby in Washington pushing for yet another war of choice against another Muslim country that has some regional strategic reach. It is about the Persian Gulf money lobby (absolute tribal Saudi princes and UAE shaikhs, even lowly Bahrain shaikhs) pushing for yet another American destructive war of choice on yet another Muslim country. A proxy war they are not willing to fight nor to participate in.
It is about a war that will not be sanctioned by the United Nations, and hence will be a certified Western war of aggression. Maybe it is about some inexplicable insatiable American desire to get bogged down in yet another faraway war that is erroneously painted as a cakewalk. Maybe it is a way to keep the military-industrial complex thriving.
It will be a war about all of the above.
What it is not about is a desire to reach a peaceful solution on the part of a U.S. Congress, both houses and both parties, that is in the Israeli pocket.
Which is how most Muslims and Arabs see it, once one gets away from the views publicized by controlled Gulf and Saudi media like Alarabiya, Asharq Alawsat, Al-Hayat, and others.

Cheers
mhg

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