Category Archives: Arabian Peninsula

Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, European Union, GCC, Yemen

A Solution: Hadi to Join European Union, Erdogan to Join Gulf GCC……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

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During the turmoil of the Arab uprisings of 2011, the Saudi king came up with an interesting idea, what Americans would call “a dilly”. He invited two unlikely Arab kingdoms to join the Gulf Cooperation Council– GCC: humorless Jordan and faraway but certainly more exotic Morocco. Even though the two countries are not located on the Persian Gulf, unlike for example Iraq or Iran or even the United States Navy. Anyway, I opined loudly and persistently that it will never happen, that it was a knee-jerk reaction by the Saudis to the Arab turmoil around them. I suggested that they will end up at most with a sort of watered-down ‘association’. As it happened the Arab turmoil turned the wrong way, and the princes used their money wisely to influence events in Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Or so they thought. There was even some loose talk of membership and maybe association with military-ruled Egypt. Yemen was never mentioned at that time.

The invitations to the kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan were quietly shelved. The assumption was that Yemen can also forget about it. Now that the country is in turmoil, its former president is on the run, the issue comes up. Reports claim that the former president AbdRabuh Hadi is formally applying for membership of the GCC. The man is not even the true president as his term expired last year and he decided to unilaterally extended his own term, in true Arab fashion. I suppose it could be a way to show that he and his ministers are acting like a real ‘government’. Even after escaping first Sanaa and then Aden to the safety of Riyadh.


It will be interesting if the Saudis encouraged them to apply, or if they decided to spring a spring surprise while the Saudis are busy in their own power struggle. It is possible they resorted to this after failing to raise the expected popular militia in support of the air campaign: the opposition to Houthi-Saleh is mainly Southern Independence, Al Qaeda, and some tribal elements.

Either way, his chances of joining the GCC now are zero, mainly because Hadi will never return and rule in Sanaa. He has as much chance to join the GCC as Erdogan of Turkey has of joining the European Union. This is not to say that Yemen does not fit into the GCC, culturally and historically it could fit. But Yemen has three handicaps:
(1) it is a republic not a monarchy, presumably with an elected president;
(2) it is very poor, and;
(3)it is a large country that has more citizens than Saudi Arabia. Which means it can be the most populous country of the GCC, with all the economic and financial pressures that would create on the rest of the GCC.

So, if I were a joking type, which I probably am not, I would suggest that Yemen Hadi has a better chance to join Europe than the GCC and Erdogan Turkey has a better chance to join the GCC than the European Union. I bet you know where this is leading……….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Weird Saudi War on Yemen: Reluctant Allies, a Ceasefire Prank………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“Saudi Arabia’s resumption of airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen on Wednesday, only hours after it abruptly declared a halt to most military operations, reflected the difficulty of finding a political solution to the crisis. It also showed the challenges facing the Obama administration as it increasingly relies on allies in the Middle East. Senior Saudi officials made clear on Wednesday that they had not formally declared an end to bombing………”

Saudi behavior in their war on Yemen is getting weirder almost by the day:

First, they demanded that former president General Hadi who has escaped from Sanaa then from Aden be reinstated. He presided over part of Yemen, his allies were quite corrupt, and he is not liked because he invited foreign bombings and invasion of his country. I have told them, nay fatwa-ed, in postings here that Hadi will never return to Sanaa (no matter how long he travels لا صنعاء ولو طال السفر ), most likely not even to Aden. Apparently they did not listen.

Second, they invited Turkey and Pakistan and Egypt to join the assault on Yemen. Only Egypt was partly amenable, and the humorless Kingdom of Jordan to a limited extent.

Third, this war is presumably led by new defense minister Prince Muhammad, son of King Salman, who is in his twenties. Highly unlikely that he is ‘leading’ or strategizing the campaign: he has been on the job only a few weeks. I’d bet the farm, if I had a farm, that he is being strongly advised by others, mainly foreigners, on strategy.

Fourth, they’ve spent a month bombing cities, infrastructure and military installations, killing many Yemenis and wounding more. Yet they claim they were doing it for the Yemeni people. They warned of an Iranian “presence” in Houthi Yemen, yet nobody could locate a single Iranian soldier or Revolutionary Guard or bricklayer anywhere in Yemen.

Fifth, the bombing campaign has failed. The Saudi king issued a decree inviting or authorizing the National Guard NG to join the battle. The NG is a ground force owned by Prince Meteb (Muteb if you will) bin Abdullah, who inherited it from his late father King Abdullah. Maybe they were setting him up for a medal.

Sixth, one day later they declared that their military strikes on Yemen have ended.

Seventh, within hours of the declaration of cessation of bombing they resumed bombing Yemen. Confusing moves by the confused; or maybe it was a prank.

Eighth, there are reasonably credible reports that other GCC states are in this adventure reluctantly. The United Arab Emirates, UAE, is reported to be unhappy about it. Oman has wisely refused to join this Wahhabi crusade. The other Gulf potentates are sort of barely in it, but it is really a Saudi-American operation.

Ninth, very important, they have no shortages of the best weapons that the western powers can manufacture and export. Can it tip the balance against the lightly-armed Houthis? Maybe it can, but the war is confined to one-sided aerial bombing………

And that is where it stands………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Corruption, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Bentleys for Bombs: a Saudi Prince Treats his Pilots as Bounty Hunters……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Saudi Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal, a nephew of the king, is into money. I mean really into it, not just through his Kingdom Holdings. Like most of them he believes he can buy it all with money, and maybe he is right. Immediately after the terrorist attacks of September 11 he showed up in New York with a big cheque of several millions. He was doing fine until he opened his mouth about “Jews” and “Jewish” influence and how it affected the attacks. The mayor of New York correctly returned his cheque, possibly told him where to shove it. Later on, the prince initiated a lawsuit against Forbes Magazine for underestimating his true wealth by a few billion. It must be nice being a Saudi prince, provided you are also born with the mindset.

One month after their military onslaught against the Yemenis, he did it again, in typical Saudi royal fashion. He flashed money at their military men. Prince Al-Waleed tweeted that he was gifting 100 Bentleys to the one hundred Saudi pilots who bombed the hell out of Yemen. An obscene gesture from one of the richest Arab princes to reward the men who destroyed the poorest Arab country outside Africa. He treated the pilots like they were ‘bounty hunters’ of the Old West: essentially a bounty for killing and destroying a poor country. The prince quickly erased this offer from his Twitter account: either he was strongly advised against it or he realized there has been no victory yet. Or maybe he had not realized how much a Bentley costs. Most likely someone higher up than him thought the prince was trying to steal the limelight, or the thunder, from him.

I can’t imagine Al Sisi of Egypt or Erdogan of Turkey or Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan offering their pilots a Bentley each. Or affording such obscenity: bounty for killings. Maybe that is one reason they declined to join the war on Yemen. It is a rich man’s war against the poorest of Arabs.

And that is where it stands…..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Tony Blair, Yemen

Tony Blair Visits Riyadh: is the Weasel Offering Free War Advice?……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Arab media report on Tony (the Weasel) Blair visiting the rich moneyed part of Middle East. Tony Blair, the consummate warmonger of our region, has landed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is also visiting Bahrain, but that is only a footnote visit to a footnote dynasty. You never see him visit poorer Arab countries: Yemen or Sudan or Somalia or Gaza.

Tony must be up to ‘something’. He is as credible among Arab peoples as, say, Benedict Arnold has been in American history. Even though Arab princes and potentates seem to deal with him, actually hire him. So what is he cooking for the Saudi King, whom he reportedly has met with a large delegation? Is Tony trying to keep his useless job of “Middle East Quartet” bullshitter? Is he giving advice on how to achieve “victory” in Yemen?
One thing is certain: Tony Blair never diverges from what the oil princes and potentates like. His eyes are always on the wallet, since long before he kissed Gaddafi on the cheeks (no, the other ones) as he lobbied for J P Morgan Bank. That was just months before he rediscovered how evil and “dictatorial” Gaddafi was.
So what is the weasel up to these days?

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arabian Peninsula, Genocide, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

War on Yemen: Neither Shock Nor Awe, Allah Be Praised and Alhamdulillah……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“The US Navy has sent two warships to Yemeni waters to conduct ‘maritime security operations.’ However, Washington denies they have been sent to intercept an alleged Iranian naval convoy carrying weapons for Houthi anti-government forces. The Pentagon said in a statement on Monday that the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its escort cruiser USS Normandy have transited from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea on April 19. “Theodore Roosevelt and Normandy have joined other US forces conducting maritime security operations in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb and the Southern Red Sea,” the statement reads………………”

They have called their air assault on Yemen Decisive Storm, a cheaper imitation of Desert Storm, what Americans usually call the Persian Gulf War. But this operation has been anything but decisive: early on I correctly called it Faltering Storm.

Don’t expect the Saudi King, or a gaggle of other Arab princes and potentates and kleptocrats in military garb to soon land on some battleship, with a huge sign behind them proclaiming: “Mission Accomplished. Alhamdulillah: Allah be Praised“

There has been no Shock or Awe in the war on Yemen. What has happened was what was expected by anyone but the delusional attackers. It was always known that Yemen is no match for the best warplanes and missiles the West can manufacture and sell, nor for the best electronic and communications and tracking devices the West can sell. Almost nobody outside the delusional cities of Riyadh or Abu Dhabi or Doha expected the one-sided air war to achieve any goals, besides destruction of Yemen’s poor infrastructure. 

It has also been generally known that the attackers are no match for the Yemenis, Houthi and allies, on the ground. That the rugged land of Yemen could chew them up and spit them out. That is why they have been seeking paid mercenary forces from faraway poor places as cannon fodder.

It has been almost a month of bombing now, with the rich petro-princes throwing everything at the lightly armed Houthis and their allies. Whatever goal they had for their assault has not been achieved. The Houthis are as defiant as they were months ago, perhaps more now that their civilians have been murdered by the hundreds, perhaps by the thousands. The brotherly and sisterly attackers have no option now but to continue the bombing until some face-saving formula is offered or give up.

The Western powers are willing to resupply the weapons, provide more intelligence, send more warships, clamp more sanctions. All for a price. There is talk of American mid-air tankers feuling Saudi warplanes so that they can destroy more Yemeni homes faster. New ships are being sent to the Yemeni region, both American and Iranian. The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, no less, seems ready to join the Saudi bombing of Yemen. Which would put Mr. Obama even more squarely on the side of aggression. The bombings are becoming more ferocious, more insistent, more desperate.

A long war of attrition of the kind that invaders usually don’t win.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Yemen

Hadi Bin Hameededdin of Yemen: I Shall Not Return……..

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

When deposed former president Hadi won the “election” by an amazing 99.8% of the vote, something only Arab despots do. He beat Al Sisi (only 98%), Al Assad (a paltry 88%) and Rouhani (an embarrassing 51%). He even beat Saddam Hussein.

This year he escaped Sanaa for Aden, allegedly disguised in a hijab and abaya (in drag but no pumps), he forgot to announce: I Shall Return.
A few days later when predictably he could not inspire anyone in Aden and he escaped Aden for Djibouti then Riyadh, he also failed to declare: I Shall Return.
During his weeks in Riyadh exile Hadi has urged increased foreign bombing of his people and a foreign ground invasion of his country. From the safety of Riyadh. But maybe he began to see the writing on the wall. No wonder he still would not declare: I Shall Return.
In a few weeks, when the Zombie flees again to his inevitable permanent exile in Abu Dhabi or Cairo, he probably will finally remember to declare: I think I shall return, and I mean it.
He will not. Not after he has urged and cheered the bombs falling on his people and his country. Whatever the outcome of this war on Yemen, whoever wins if anyone does, he will not return as leader of Yemen, something he has never been anyway.

Al Badr of Hameededdin never returned either after 1962, even with all the Saudi resources and money and weapons that tried to get him back into Sanaa.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Yemen

Princes of La Mancha: Saudis Still Seeking Hired Foreign Forces for Yemen…….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

“Pakistan’s parliament on Friday unanimously approved a resolution promising the country will stay neutral in the conflict in Yemen, despite Saudi requests for Islamabad to participate in the coalition fighting Shi’ite Houthi rebels. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had summoned the emergency joint session to debate a Saudi request for Sunni-dominated Pakistan to send its warships, planes and ground troops to help the Saudi-led military coalition. A heated debate continued for five days, as many lawmakers strongly opposed any Pakistani military intervention in Yemen. They feared such a move would fuel sectarian tensions inside Pakistan………..”

Saudi Deputy Deputy Crown Prince (who is also Minister of Interior) Mohammed Bin Nayef Al Saud flew to Turkey last week. The common assessment is that he wanted Turkish help in the military operations in Yemen. That came just before President Erdogan flew to Tehran. Erdogan had blasted Iran for its alleged interference in Yemen (and other places), but after his Saudi and Tehran meetings he moderated his comments. Turkey is mostly Sunni, which means the sectarian-oriented Saudis think it can provide “Sunni” military help. The problem is that only about 75% of Turks are Sunnis, and the Turks could develop an Alevi or Shi’a problem that has been so far dormant, especially in the south.

Last weekend, Saudi defense minister, the youngster Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud flew to Egypt for meetings with his Egyptian counterpart, and possibly with Al Sisi. The Egyptian media has been gung-ho last week on intervention in Yemen, complete with headlines about the “Shi’a threat” to Egypt. Egyptian media are rarely subtle and almost never into due diligence, and some of them even accused “Shi’a and Iranian” agents of terrorist acts in Sinai. Yet Al Sisi seems hesitant about sending his soldiers into Yemen to fight for the Saudis. Some Saudi Wahhabi opposition groups, those who support ISIS and Al Qaeda, claim that he is holding out for more money from the princes. Yet Egypt has a history in Yemen that it would not want to repeat.

Pakistan under the Nawaz Sharif administration was seen as a reliable source of mercenary troops to fight the Saudi war in Yemen. Yet Mr. Sharif has met with Turkey’s Erdogan and with the Iranian FM Zarif last week. After which he threw the ball in the court of the Pakistani parliament with a request to authorize intervention. The Saudis are reported by some media to have asked for “Sunni” soldiers. But Pakistan is some 20% Shi’a (about 30-35 million of them), and it is already facing sectarian terrorist acts in some major cities. The Pakistani parliament voted this week unanimously against “renting” their army to the Saudi princes. After which Anwar Gargash, a minor state minister in the United ِArab Emirates played his best card. The UAE minister threatened that Pakistan will pay “a cost” for its decision not to join the war on Yemen. Meaning financial blackmail.

This leaves Egypt, which has been monitoring the Turkish and Pakistani developments. The only country among the three which has had experience fighting in Yemen in recent times. Will Field Marshal Al Sisi jump into the fray and provide canon fodder, at the “right price”?

Stay tuned………….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Foreign Policy, Yemen

Southern Arabia: a Faltering Storm………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

 

KuwaitCox2

“Iran’s leader on Thursday condemned as genocide the military intervention by its main regional rival Saudi Arabia in Yemen, sharply escalating Tehran’s rhetoric against the two-week-old air strike campaign. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Saudi Arabia would not emerge victorious from the war in Yemen, where Iran-allied Houthi fighters who control the capital Sanaa have been trying to seize the southern city of Aden from local militias. Iran has repeatedly urged a halt in the air strikes and called for dialogue in Yemen, but Khamenei’s comments are the most critical yet from Tehran about the offensive by Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies………….”

Two weeks of American-supported and coordinated brutal Saudi bombings have failed to achieve any results other than destroy the fragile infrastructure of Yemen. The best and most expensive machines of war that the West has ever produced have been pitted against the poorest Arab country outside Africa, against a Houthi militia and its army allies. So far it has been a failure, whatever goal its planning princes had in mind. So far. The result must have shocked the attackers (Saudi Arabia and its allies): predictable air supremacy for one side against supremacy on the ground for the other.
So, the Yemeni-Houthi air force has been effectively destroyed or grounded. The Yemeni-Houthi ground offensive continues to gobble up territory from Sanaa to Aden to Shabwah. Other army units, possibly infuriated by foreign warplanes raining death and destruction on their country, on their people, have shifted allegiance to the Houthis and Saleh and handed other bases over. We can say that the escaped ex-president AbdRabuh (so far) Mansour Hadi now controls only part of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. That is the area where he lives. (Those fighting the Houthi-Saleh forces around Aden are mostly southern secessionists (Hirak), not Hadi loyalists as Western media report).

This alleged Decisive Storm, led by a young Saudi prince, a defense minister who is reported to be younger than 30 years, has been not so decisive. They have intensified the bombings, possibly in frustration. So far Decisive Storm looks to confirm my earlier description of it: more like a Stupid Storm quickly morphing into a Faltering Storm, rather than a remake of Desert Storm. So far………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

War on Yemen: Hadi from His Peanut Gallery Exile……….

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

Former President General AbdRabuh Mansour Hadi of Yemen and his foreign minister are ensconced in luxurious quarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. From whence they have called and urged a violent foreign bombing campaign against their country and their people. Having seen their opponents, the Houth-Saleh alliance, continue to gain ground in spite of intense Saudi bombardment, they are now urging a full foreign invasion of their country. In order to return them to power. But I have already issued a final fatwa that Hadi will not return to rule in Sanaa no matter who “wins” this complex war.

So, why isn’t “General” Hadi, the escaped former president, the escaped military general, in Aden now leading the fight he is urging everyone else in Yemen to wage? Why is he not leading the fight against the Houthi-Saleh alliance. And maybe against Al Qaeda (AQAP) and maybe ISIS and even the Southern Independence Movement (Hirak)? And maybe expose himself to the same foreign Western-Saudi bombs his people face every day?
Instead of joining the faraway media peanut gallery in Riyadh? Confining himself to urging others to fight and expose their families to catcalling from far away, like us “peaceful” bloggers and tweeps?

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Yemen

Arabian Peninsula: Is Decisive Storm Really a Desert Storm or a Stupid Storm?………

Shuwaikh-school1 RattleSnakeRidge Sharqeya-Baneen-15

KuwaitCox2

In the Gulf GCC countries that are bombing Yemen, you get arrested and imprisoned if you publicly criticize this war being waged by air against the poorest Arab country outside Africa. The war is done in alliance with Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and at least two Western powers who supply the weapons and provide the logistics and intelligence. Pakistan and Malaysia are being coy, but it is almost certain the former ia supplying some personnel.
As I said, one goes to prison for publicly opposing this war that probably was imposed on the GCC by the Saudis. The doubters have been right so far. Decisive Storm has not been decisive yet, has not decided anything except to visit misery, death, injury, and homelessness on the people of Yemen. While the escaped former president, the weakling AbdRAbuh Hadi, and his ministers egg on the attackers from luxury accommodations in Saudi Arabia.

So far the war has not achieved any strategic success. Since it started a week ago, the Houthis and their military allies have completed their takeover of Aden and Bab El Mandab Strait on the Red Sea. Perhaps the idea is to weaken them enough with bombardment for an easy ground attack or to force them to accept Hadi. Neither is realistic. Hadi is out and for good. He was never popular inside Yemen. Any leader that invites a foreign attack on his country and people does not usually return to power, as per my last fatwa.

The whole concept of Decisive Storm is based on the Desert Storm campaign that freed Kuwait from Iraqi occupation in 1991. Softening with bombardment, and then……….what? Can you imagine a Saudi and Egyptian expeditionary force slugging it in the rugged Yemeni landscape? And what would the other side do?
That is why I prefer to call it Stupid Storm. Unless they can prove otherwise……..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]