Category Archives: Arab Revolutions

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, censorship, Iran, Saudi Arabia

From Tehran to Riyadh: Cranking up the Censorship Machine………

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“Saudi Arabian bloggers and journalists say the arch-conservative Islamic kingdom will find it hard to douse glimmers of more open reporting despite a tightening of media rules after the spread of popular revolts through the Arab world………… The world’s number one oil exporter announced a series of stricter regulations for journalists after “Arab Spring” unrest hit neighbouring countries earlier this year……… In a royal decree issued in March as protests were boiling over in the region in March, Saudi King Abdullah forbade criticism of senior members of the Sunni Muslim clergy. A new media law issued in April then threatened fines and the closure of publications that offended top figures or were seen to jeopardise stability. More recently, a leaked draft of an anti-terrorism law classified “endangering national security” and “harming the reputation of the state” as terrorist offences………..Twenty years ago, newspapers were so worried about upsetting the Saudi government that they waited days before reporting on Iraq’s invasion of the kingdom’s neighbour Kuwait………..”

I don’t see that it makes any difference. Nobody inside the Kingdom without Magic has ever openly criticized the princes or the top clergy openly, not unless they wanted to vanish (a few who did, did). Or unless they are in the safety of exile.

As for this part: “Twenty years ago, newspapers were so worried about upsetting the Saudi government that they waited days before reporting on Iraq’s invasion of the kingdom’s neighbour Kuwait ”. Yeah, unfortunately I remember that one: the princes were scared s–tless, to use a vulgar high-school term, from Saddam’s Baathist military which proved to be like a hollow Mexican piñata (sans the candy) when faced with the Americans. It took a visit by Dick Cheney (then US Secretary of Defense) and the promise of US troops to get them to mention the invasion and to cooperate. All this is not mentioned in our ‘genteel’ Gulf media: it is considered un-brotherly, or perhaps un-sisterly, to mention it in mixed company
.
All this is a regional phenomenon, not just a Saudi one. From Iran through Riyadh and all the way to Algeria, they all seek ways to stifle free opinion. Their main worry now is the Internet, a newish beast that they can’t seem to figure how to control. Unless they ban it as Saddam did in Iraq.
Cheers
mhg





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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Libya, NATO

Is the Libyan Insurgency becoming the Libyan War?…………..

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“With armed loyalists of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the fallen Libyan leader, still ensconced in his hometown and a few other redoubts as the seven-month-old Libyan conflict winds down, NATO announced a three-month extension of its bombing campaign on Wednesday. “We are determined to continue our mission for as long as necessary, but ready to terminate the operation as soon as possible,” the NATO secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said in a statement from the alliance’s Brussels headquarters. It is the second 90-day extension, and it was approved less than a week before the campaign was set to end…… As if to answer him, Britain’s Defense Ministry announced Wednesday that its warplane contingent in the NATO Libya operation had attacked loyalists’ military deployments in three areas. Tornado GR4’s hit targets in Colonel Qaddafi’s hometown, Surt; in the loyalist desert enclave of Bani Walid; and in the north-central town of Hun………..”

Now, is the formerly “Libyan insurgency” becoming the “Libyan War”, with NATO and a faction of the NATO-baked former rebels facing a new insurgency by Qaddafi loyalists? If Colonel Qaddafi and his Qaddafistas linger and regroup and the new Tripoli regime proves incapable of handling them, rooting them out. If, as the verse says. Libya covers a lot of ground, borders six countries and the sea. Yes it can, yes it can, but let’s hope not.
(I also wonder how they pronounce the middle name of Anders Fogh Rasmussen in Libya)
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, France, Iraq, Libya, NATO, US Foreign Policy

A Tale of Two Arab Despots, a Tale of Two Invasions, a Tale of Two NATO Elections………

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“Obama Praises Libya’s Post-Qaddafi Leaders at U.N. President Obama on Tuesday extended to Libya’s transitional leader a diplomatic honor never offered his predecessor, meeting formally with Mustafa Abdel-Jalil at the United Nations and heralding the victory of Libyan rebels who brought an end to the 42-year reign of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi……..”

“Qaddafi Calls New Libya Government a Propped-Up ‘Charade’. As world leaders at the United Nations were embracing the rebels who overthrew him, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi broke nearly two weeks of silence on Tuesday, denouncing Libya’s new interim government and predicting its quick demise once NATO warplanes end their attacks on his forces…….”

Qaddafi is just being Qaddafi: he couldn’t resist crashing the Obama party in New York. He still thinks he can prevail as soon as NATO gets tired and leaves. It is an interesting contrast between two Arab despots that were overthrown by Western forces. Saddam Hussein’s old Iraqi army deserted en masse in 2003, with hardly a bullet being fired against the “Coalition” forces. Saddam himself was found only months later in a hole. On the other hand the Iraqi people did not raise a hand either against or for the invasion.
In contrast the Libyans have had a short civil war which hopefully will not stretch and expand into a West African-style mess. The Qaddafi forces could not actually shoot at NATO forces, since the attacks came from the air, but they did shoot at somebody.
The Iraq invasion probably helped get Bush reelected one year later in 2004. He was reelected because one year was not enough for the American people to realize the costs of that war and the body bags had not started arriving in large numbers. Can the Libyan invasion help reelect Nicolas (Le Weasel) Sarkozy? Yes it can, unfortunately. In recent decades, the French voters have become notorious for talking a good talk and then turning around and electing the worst candidate available. They did that the last time. I suspect they will do so again in 2012.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Revolutions, Horn of Africa

The Arab World’s Second Somalia, or is it Sudan?………

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The Arab World has one completely failed state: Somalia, which is not even identifiable as a state anymore (or Arab for that matter). It has one nearly failed states: Sudan which has staved off Somalization by giving the Southerners their freedom (unlike Abraham Lincoln). Then there is Yemen. As for Yemen? I believe it will become an unidentifiable state, like Somalia, possibly with the South regaining the independence it foolishly gave away in 1990 to join the tribal North. Northern Yemen is truly in danger of falling completely apart, American drones and Saudi war planes notwithstanding.

No, Libya is not likely to become a failed state. It may try to become a failed state during the next few years, many African states that were ruled by long-term despots have headed that way. But Libya is a potentially rich country with a relatively high degree of national identity. Besides, it is too close to Europe to be allowed to fail as a state: who is going to stop all them boats?
Cheers
mhg


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Apartheid, Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, Corruption, ethnic cleansing, GCC, Human Right, Mercenaries

The Orwellian Glory of Bahrain? Khalifa and Winston Smith and O’Brien……………….

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                                           Glory of the nation? 
“Even amid the crackdown, officials insist that Bahrain remains a democratic country adhering to, in the words of Abdulla al-Buainain, a judge, the “rule of law.” (E-mails to the government information office and a public relations firm hired by Bahrain went unanswered.) But the frustration of Mr. Alderazi is evident across the kingdom. The most despised government figure for Shiites, Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, the king’s 75-year-old uncle and the world’s longest-serving prime minister with four decades in office, has become the center of an attempt at a personality cult; his portraits adorn intersections. “Glory of the nation,” one describes him……… Most dangerous, though, is the exacerbation of sectarian hatred in a country that has never really reconciled the narratives of the Khalifa family’s long-ago conquest. No one claims that Sunnis and Shiites ever lived in harmony here. But the country stands as a singular example of the way venerable distinctions of ethnicity, sect and history can be manipulated in the Arab world, often cynically, in the pursuit of power. Programs on state-owned television like “The Observer” and “The Last Word” baited activists as traitors and encouraged citizens to inform on one another. ………………”

This over-ripe Shaikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al Khalifa has created a bipolar society on the island of Bahrain. For many years outsiders, especially Westerners, saw only what they were ‘directed’ to see. Or they saw what they wanted to see. They saw one Bahrain: cosmopolitan, open to foreign business, pro-Western, rulers and their elite retainers speak English, yadda, yadda, yadda….
They did not see “most” of Bahrain. The Apartheid system that kept a majority of the people oppressed. They did not see the kleptocracy that stripped the land the wealth of the small country. They did not see the imported foreign mercenaries from places like Pakistan and Jordan and Syria who helped repress and torture for a fee. Many preferred not to see, especially the British expatriates many of who openly sided with the despots this year, for a price.
I recall some Europeans get nearly teary eyed talking about the last Shaikh of Bahrain (before the son promoted himself to king), how he allowed Westerners free access to the beautiful beach at one of his palaces. Only Westerners, they emphasized: no Asians, no Arabs, no Bahrainis, not even Saudis! I recall that one German, only one European some years ago, who muttered that “you should go outside Manama and see the squalid Shi’a villages”.
Now they have created an Orwellian nation of native informers, just to help the foreign mercenaries keep things under control.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Jihadis, Libya, NATO

Of Libyan Islamist Factions and the American Tea Party………….

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“Those who keep denouncing the Libyan Revolution as somehow not indigenous (?) because it got Western help should remember that behind the scenes the revolutionary governments of Egypt and Tunisia were very much working against Qaddafi, who, if he had remained in power, would have attempted to undermine their experiments in democratic governance. That is, regional and Muslim forces also supported the Libyan revolution. Meanwhile, military commander of Tripoli Abdul Hakim Belhadj gave an interview in al-Sharq al-Awsat that has been translated by the USG Open Source Center. He denied that faction-fighting is going on in Tripoli, said security is fairly good there, and played down alleged conflicts between Muslim fundamentalist and more secular forces…………..”

As I opined earlier here, Libya is going Islamist, much more Islamist. I don’t know yet how much more. The same will go for Egypt, and for Syria when (or if) Assad’s Baath regime falls.
Yes, Abdul Hakim Belhadj denied that there is factional infighting in Tripoli. At the same time, the American (beer drinking) Tea Party denied it was trying to derail the Obama policies. Rep John Boehner, Head, or rather captive, of the Tea Party categorically denied that any rift exists in Washington. One of the Koch brother, allegedly the billionaire masterminds of the Tea Party, responded to a query: ”We ain’t no fucking Libyans….”
Cheers
mhg


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Ali Khamenei, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Salafi, Syria, Yemen

Khamenei on “Islamic” Arab Uprisings…………..

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“Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has said the great Islamic movements that have recently arisen in the Muslim world are a prelude to a greater development and the rule of Islam. The Leader made the remarks on Tuesday during a meeting with scholars and intellectuals who attended the fifth meeting of the Ahl al-Bayt World Assembly, which was held in Tehran on Sunday. He also said, “Our stance is to support and strengthen these movements, and we hope that these Islamic movements will bring an end to the hegemony of the main enemies, namely the Zionists and the United States.” In addition, the Leader advised Muslims to be vigilant about the enemies’ threats, especially their plots to create division between Shias and Sunnis. These plots are politically motivated, he said, adding, “The global arrogance (the forces of imperialism) are especially pursuing a policy of Shiaophobia in addition to the policy of Islamophobia………….” Mehr News Agency

Ayatollah Khamenei is wrong, of course, in labeling the Arab uprisings generally as Islamist, calling them “Islamic movements”. They started as quite secular movements in Tunisia and Egypt, and most Islamists like Salafis and many others either opposed or at least hesitated about them. The Islamists, ever opportunistic, especially the Salafis, have jumped on the bandwagon. Yet he has a point in that the Arab states undergoing uprisings are becoming more Islamist. Egypt will almost certainly become more “Islamist”, as will Libya although I suspect Libya is more susceptible to the threat of the Salafi movement. Syria will certainly become much more Islamist and much less secular than under the Baath, if Assad is overthrown, unless the military takes over again. Syria has had a long history of religious tolerance, even more so than Egypt in recent decades. Islamists have a leading role in both the Libyan and Syrian uprisings. Bahrain is already co-governed by the Salafis and Wahhabis who also fear a Shi’a resurgence if the Apartheid system is dismantled. As for Yemen? Who knows. Only Tunisia has some hope of blocking the ambitions of the Islamist parties.
Khamenei is quite right about the dangers of Shiaphobia and Islamophobia.
Cheers
mhg

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Anti-Semitism, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Middle East, Muslims, NATO, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US Foreign Policy

The Turks are Coming: Erdogan as a Softer Gentler Ahmadinejad?…………..

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“Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday fired his visit to post-revolution Tunisia with the kind of trademark warning to Israel that has earned him hero status on his “Arab Spring tour.” After a rapturous welcome in Cairo confirmed the Turkish strongman’s soaring regional popularity, Erdogan came to Tunisia where the wave of pro-democracy revolts sweeping the Arab world all began. He said that Israel could not do whatever it wanted in the eastern Mediterranean and that Turkish warships could be there at any moment. “Israel cannot do whatever it wants in the eastern Mediterranean. They will see what our decisions will be on this subject. Our navy attack ships can be there at any moment,” Erdogan told a news conference shortly after arriving in Tunis………“Relations with Israel cannot normalize if Israel does not apologize over the flotilla raid, compensate the martyrs’ families and lift the blockade of Gaza,” Erdogan said. Ankara said it was prepared to escort any future Gaza-bound ship with naval ships……..”

Interesting how the popularity of the non-Arab neighbor leaders soars with the tempo of their anti-Israeli rhetoric. Long ago, there were the Soviets, (although it is hard imagining anyone, even Arabs, getting excited about an old fart like Brezhnev or the dour Kosygin). Then along came Ahmadinejad who went beyond his Iranian predecessors and adopted the old Arab and anti-Semitic theme of Holocaust-baiting. He became wildly popular on the Arab street until the vast semi-official Saudi media, which dominates Arab airwaves and owns most Arab TV screens, started working on him and on their favorite theme of sectarian divisiveness. Ahmadinejad’s other problem is that he represents a theocratic system of governance that most Arabs, be they Sunni or Shi’a or Episcopalian, reject (just as most Arabs reject a system of absolute tribal repressive monarchy). Few Arabs, and probably few Iranians, like the idea of supreme clerical rule.
So now there is a persistent vacuum of leadership in the Arab world, the type of vacuum Ahmadinejad himself had talked about in the past. The Al Saud have tried to fill that vacuum of leadership, to inherit the old regional mantle of Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt that nobody could claim. The Saudis have failed even more than the Iranian mullahs, and for the same reason: they both represent regressive regimes, anomalies in this day and age. Iran is a repressive theocracy with quasi-democratic elements; Saudi Arabia is an even more repressive absolute one family dynasty where they pretend that the Quran is their ‘constitution’ while in fact it is the whims and greed of the ruling family that is the ‘constitution’.
Into the vacuum steps Turkey, newly reinvigorated both politically and economically. The Turks have long thought that they belonged in Europe; that their prosperity depended on being part of Europe. Events since the establishment of the Euro Zone indicate that the Turks can do fine without Europe, tyvm. Besides, the agnostic Europeans have a hard time shedding their ethnocentric ‘religious’ and racist prejudices and all the fears of the Siege of Vienna.
Having been rejected by Europe, the Turks have rediscovered their old domain, the Arab World, now the “sick man of the world”. They have also discovered that certain tweaks of their relationship with Israel can be wildly popular on the Arab street, if not in Arab palaces. The Turks are mindful of the growing new rivalry with their old Iranian rivals for places like Iraq and Syria (and possibly the Gulf). The Turks have an even better card: they have a democratic system of government that only two Arab states come even near to matching. And they know when to raise the rhetoric against Israel and when to tone it down, with the help of the Israeli right wing.
Then there is NATO………..
Cheers
mhg
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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Britain, France, Libya, NATO, North Africa

NATO and the Arab World: Are Happy Days Here Again? When Potentates are Divine and Groveling is Hip…….

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“NATO planes are still in the air and bombing targets over Libya, and Moammar Gadhafi is still on the loose. Nonetheless, NATO is taking something of a victory lap in the wake of an operation that broke new ground for the military alliance……….. Throughout the conflict, NATO has insisted that its actions are limited to supporting the U.N. resolution that calls for protecting civilians and enforcing an arms embargo. But NATO certainly pushed the boundaries, and critics say NATO ended up providing close air support for anti-Gadhafi rebels. To most observers, NATO was clearly taking the rebel side in a civil war and backing efforts to oust Gadhafi. Those critics worry that NATO risks becoming an armed service provider for the U.N. and other allies. That job description is a long way from what NATO still insists is its core, founding mission: to protect its members’ territory and population…….”

A few decades after the last European imperialists departed the Arab world, militarily speaking, they are back. The major, the only imperialist powers that ruled the Arabs for decades are back to their old turf. That would be the British and the French. Interesting that the British leader (a minority leader) comes from the Conservative (Tory) Party of Winston Churchill but he is hardly Churchill-esqu, and the French president du jour comes from the conservative ranks as well, but he is hardly de Gaulle-esque. But they are here in Libya and looking speculatively toward Syria (while completely ignoring Yemen and Bahrain).
 
Mr. Cameron is doing an Allenby, or is it a Kitchener? While the strutting Sarkozy is more ambitious, if more delusional, and is apparently going for a Bonaparte. Maybe Berlusconi is also dreaming of the old Roman Province of Africa but he is a bit late. Now we can say that NATO, or various parts of it, control the skies and the seas and the land of almost the whole Arab World, save for a sliver in Gaza and a very iffy Syria that is also teetering, and parts of Lebanon. Now NATO also controls all of the Middle East, save for these mentioned parts and theocratic Iran (remember that Turkey is part of NATO and Israel is practically an honorary member).

All that because the corrupt Arab system, and not just the League of Arab States, has failed the Arab peoples for decades. There was a time, decades ago, when Arabs were hopeful and had expectations of something better. Maybe they were delusional, but they had optimism and hope. In recent years, they have been reduced to bowing to potentates and absolute monarchs and dictators. It is now cool, nay it is hip, in much of the Arab world to bow and grovel to the potentates. One, or perhaps two, of these potentates are increasingly assuming the air of something beyond statesmanship, more like quasi-divinity, egged on by their all pervasive vast dynastic media that control the Arab skies and waves and the squads of thugs and mercenaries.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, Britain, Corruption, Mercenaries, Weapons deals

Gulf Arms Race: the Best Armed Foreign Mercenaries, it is the Commission, Stupid!………

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“At the Defence Security and Equipment International arms fair in London’s Excel Centre, there is no shortage of options for dishing out bad days, weeks, months and whole lifetimes. The Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, addressed the delegates yesterday morning, extending a warm welcome to the various invitees, among them military procurement officers from Angola, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The 65 national delegations asked to buy weapons in London include 14 regimes defined as “authoritarian” by human rights groups, who have highlighted the use of British arms in suppressing opposition movements in the Middle East……….. Saudi Arabia is by far the biggest buyer of British weapons and also the largest importer of arms globally. Saudi contracts earned the UK about £300m last year, according to arms trade analysts the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute……………”

So, all this means that the citizen of the UAE and Saudi Arabia is the best armed citizen anywhere in the whole wide world. Funny, they don’t look it: I suppose I should correct and say that the UAE foreign mercenary is the best armed foreign mercenary anywhere in the world.
According to SIPRI, it now looks like Saudi Arabia is the biggest arms importer in the world. The United Arab Emirates was the biggest Arab arms importer and the second largest arms importer in the world for several years, but no more. The UAE has less than one million citizens (plus a few million temporary foreign laborers) while Saudi Arabia probably has some 15 million citizens (plus millions of temporary foreign laborers). Now the potentates in Abu Dhabi will try harder to surpass the potentates in Riyadh. They certainly can afford it more than Riyadh can. That also means that some Saudi prince(s) will collect billions in commissions (called bribes in impolite and crude company, but I won’t stoop to that), much more than their Emirati (Abu Dhabi) potentates who will collect less in arms commissions (also called bribes in impolite and crude company, but I won’t stoop to that either).
Now we will have a race: the UAE potentates will seek to regain their position in weapons imports and, not incidentally, in the size of commissions their potentates receive. These fat bribes commissions are paid by the oh-so-generous Western arms exporters, who will then add the cost to the export price. Almost like money laundering: well, it is a way to launder the public money of these Gulf states back to the potentates with the help of the exporting companies. Remember the British BAE Systems and the scandal of the US $2 billion weapons deal bribe to Prince Bandar Bin Sultan (allegedly)? That was the investigation by the Serious Frauds office (SFO) that Tony Blair killed. It was called the al-Yamama deal. A lot of laundering there, more than the proverbial but real Chinese laundry in my neighborhood.

Maybe there are good honest reasons for amassing and storing all these weapons in desert warehouses. Maybe it is the fear of the scowling Iranian mullahs across the Gulf, maybe it is some mistrust of the resolve of the Western allies whose fleets fill my Gulf. In at least two cases it is the fear of the people, which explains the foreign mercenaries. Yet somehow I can’t shake off this nagging feeling that “It is the commissions, stupid!”
Cheers
mhg


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