Category Archives: Arab Revolutions

Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC

Al Sisi in Abu Dhabi under Iranian Drones, Burning the Reichstag………

      

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Speaking of Egypt and hooking up with the Gulf GCC:

I fatwa here and now that it will not happen. Egypt will not become a member of the Gulf GCC. It just ain’t gonna happen, and that is all there is to it. That is also the fatwa I issued when the Saudi princes shocked everyone but not me by inviting humorless Jordan and floating Morocco to join the GCC. That was before they politely dis-invited them (is there a polite way, maybe an app to dis-invite someone?). The princes and the potentates often act as if they have no clue as to WhatTheFuck(1) is happening or will happen. So, I am saving them the trouble as a public service.


Speaking of which. Generalisimo (sorry, Field Marshal) Al Sisi is already exploring his putative future domain. He is in Abu Dhabi visiting the UAE. Allegedly reportedly the potentates of Abu Dhabi shared with the Saudi princes the cost of financing the military coup d’etat that overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood and the ensuing police campaign that locked up anybody who is a member. No, the Reichstag was not burned down in Cairo, but pretty close to it. Egyptian media is speculating that he may resign as Minister of Defense next week in order to run for president. Yet he may have a problem: once he is not Minister of Defense, does not control the tanks officially, what authority will he have over the government? How can he guarantee a huge win (or, maybe 80%-85%)? How can he be sure of a win at all? Something for the General (sorry, Field Marshal) to think about.

The Iranians probably have their domestic drones flying right above his bald spot, getting the measure of the officer whom Morsi trusted. To his regret. 


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(1) Note: I don’t often use expletives, especially in composite form and the full WTF, but the potentates often inspire me. The best way I know to describe some of their statements and actions, succinctly.
 
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, GCC, Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy

GCC Egyptian Hook-Up Game: Saudis Looking for Love in All the Wrong Places……

      

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“Saudi Arabia is also now bruiting the induction of Egypt into the Gulf Cooperation Council, presumably with the proviso that Egypt will be allowed to extract enormous strategic rent from the GCC. In return, Egypt will protect the very wealthy but very weak GCC from Iran and Shiite Iraq, and from the Brotherhood. Anonymous Egyptian sources I saw quoted in the Egyptian press when I was there last week were speculating that if al-Sisi becomes president, he can bring in $240 billion in investments and aid from the Gulf………………..”

“PAMP (Polygamous
Arab Male Potentates), seeking poor family-ruled Arab country that does
not believe in democracy, and is willing to send troops and security
agents when needed. Money is no object, up to a point. Preferably no
Shi’as or Hasidim or Haredim among the population.” Possible GCC Personal Want-Ad


That PAMP mock want-ad reflects the state of Gulf GCC regimes since 2011. It is actually the state of the Saudi royal family, since it is the princes who have been flailing to grasp some accommodating Arab regime that can be invited to keep order when needed in exchange for money. From Jordan to Morocco, and now to Egypt.
 

Perhaps they are better off staying with the U.S. Navy for external protection from any real or (more likely) imaginary foe. Whoever heard of the Egyptian navy? Or the Jordanian navy? Or the Moroccan navy? But protection from whom? What the princes really want is a land force for protection from their own people, protection from change: that is why they have hired mercenaries from Asia and Arab countries (Bahrain) and even Latin America and Australia (UAE).

Modern Egyptian military history, its effectiveness, is very iffy (I am being polite here). In spite of the heroics of Al Sisi. After all, the four wars with Israel were not exactly ringing victories, starting with the first defeat at the hands of the ragtag Haganah bands in 1948, what we call the Palestine War. Actually in that war five Arab armies were defeated by graduates of the European concentration camps and survivors of the butchery of the civilized world. It was all downhill from then.
They may have won their last campaign at home: the war Mr. Mubarak declared on Egyptian swine in 2009, the so-called War on Pigs. Egypt’s native swine, the country’s largest minority for thousands of years seem to have all but disappeared, reportedly eliminated. Long before anyone ever heard of Mohammed Morsi. Although some of them are probably hidden inside the government and the military, sanctioned within the bureaucracy.
 

The Saudi princes are notoriously unstable (or maybe just stupid). They surprised everyone, perhaps even each other, by unilaterally inviting Jordan and Morocco to join the GCC in 2011. Then they spent the next couple of years trying to walk back from that stupid proposal.
Now they are toying with economically strapped Egypt, a country that keeps getting more crowded along the banks of the Nile. Egypt needs to stop and then reverse its population explosion, otherwise no GCC money can help. Besides, dreams of tens of billions are just that: dreams. They will get a few billion, but at a price of letting the Gulf princes and potentates pick their leaders (as they did in 2013 and 2014), and at the price of deciding their foreign policy. At the price of turning the country even more into a ‘watering’ hole for hungry and thirsty and, er, ‘socially’ frustrated and repressed Wahhabi men.
Here are some links to previous postings on this topic:

GCC Summit in December: Auld Lang Syne and L’Internationale

Bahrain Poised to Import Even More Jordanian Mercenaries?

Morocco and Jordan and GCC Constitutional Monarchy

Moroccans are from Mars, the GCC from Venus? Democracy and Humor

Saudi Leadership of GCC: Three Major Failures, Three Strikes but not Out, not yet

Gulf GCC: on Jordanian Accession, Roman Dinarius, Israeli Shekel, and Kosher Currency

Saudis in Denial: Expanded GCC? What Expanded GCC?

Expanded GCC? Picking Security over Economics, More on Black Magic

Gulf GCC: Moroccan Couscous Controversy, Jordanian Humor Controversy

Riyadh Marriage Proposal: GCC, Morocco, Jordan……

Freedoms the GCC will Bring to Morocco and Jordan……

Fatwas on GCC Expansion: Jordan, Morocco, and the Muftis

Cheers
mhg

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Al-Qaeda, Arab Revolutions, Jihadis, Religion, Syria

Revival of Religious Intolerance in Syria………

      

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“On December 2, 2013, al-Nusra Front seized the town of Maaloula for a second time. Militants entered the most famous Christian town in Syria, where residents still speak Aramaic, the language of Jesus Christ, and kidnapped nuns from the Greek Orthodox monastery of Mar Takla, in addition to vandalizing several churches. Earlier in June 2013, the historic town first came into the international media spotlight when al-Nusra militants seized it, before being expelled by the Syrian army. While ISIS adopts a hard-line position calling for the immediate wholesale implementation of Sharia provisions on Christians, including demolishing churches, al-Nusra has a less strict attitude. One leader in al-Nusra, speaking to Al-Akhbar, claimed that the group had not found any man, woman, or child in Maaloula, and said, “The residents fled before we entered, with the exception of the nuns.” But a man who identified himself as Abu Sarkis, a leader in the National Defense Committees, told Al-Akhbar that as the Islamist fighters entered Maaloula, they cried “God is Great,” and, “O Christians: Convert to Islam and you will be safe.” He added, “Afterward, Christians were told that they had three options: convert to Islam, pay the jizya [a tribute for non-Muslims], or leave.” It was as though history was repeating itself in the Levant……………….”

It sounds about right, at least in some cases. It all depends on which group or militia captures them. Some of the cutthroats would treat them even worse, much worse, if you get my drift.
The Jihadis pretend they emulate early Muslims. That they try to follow the footsteps of early Islamic conquerors, who gave the peoples of the conquered lands similar options. Which was more merciful than the European conquerors, be they Romans, crusaders, or inquisitors, gave their captive victims. Yet these modern Jihadis are not the same. The ancient Muslims were in line with the practices of their time. These modern Wahhabi Jihadis yearn for another era, an era they think they can relive by resorting to outdated bloodthirsty practices. Speaking of bloodthirsty practices: now if they could get their murderous hands on some cluster bombs or…………..
Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Egypt

End of a Revolution: When Tahrir Square became SisiPlatz…….

      

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“Three years after the start of the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak, thousands of Egyptians rallied in Cairo’s Tahrir Square Saturday calling for another military man to become their leader. The anniversary rallies came against the backdrop of deadly Cairo bombings in a country deeply polarised between supporters and opponents of Mubarak’s successor, the deposed Islamist president Mohamed Morsi. At least 29 people were killed in clashes across Egypt during Saturday’s rival rallies…………….”

“Tens of thousands of people gathered in the square, carrying Egyptian flags and holding posters bearing photos of Egypt’s Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of Egypt’s late president Gamal Abdel Nasser and even of Mubarak. The crowd that occupied the square until midnight was the second layer of civilian-security sifting: A photo of Sisi or a banner emblazoned with a poetic slogan urging him to run for presidency would grant whoever was carrying it full immunity. Those without such protection tools could see an angry mob turn against them in a matter of seconds and in a manner described by many as simply bloodthirsty. Tahrir Square was a deadly trap for anyone who is not publicly and boisterously applauding the current military-backed regime. Several journalists were harassed or attacked by regime loyalists and by noon, it was clear that foreigners were considered spies ………….”

Nothing like this level of violent repression was seen in Egypt during the combined long years of King Farouk, Gamal Abdel Nasser, or Anwar Sadat. The number of the dead keeps climbing. Over fifty this past weekend, officially. Many more have probably died in the six months since the military coup of July 2013 than died during the uprising against Mubarak. Not many died under Morsi, yet he will be ‘tried’ for murder. Many more will die now, either at the hands of the military, its security, or at the hands of Islamist terrorists. Tahrir Square, once a symbol of an uprising
against a dictator, now has its mobs clamoring for another strongman,
one of Mubarak’s generals, to take over in name what he already has. In the old tried and true style of Franco, Peron, Pinochet, Suharto, Mubarak, and others.
Tahrir Square, named Liberation Square by Gamal Abdel Nasser, is now unofficially Sisiplatz, or AlSisiPlatz.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt

Generalísimo Al Sisi of Egypt: Torn Between Eisenhower, De Gaulle, and Franco……….

      

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“Egypt’s prime minister said Thursday the spirit of the Arab Spring was still alive in his country and that the army chief likely to run for the presidency was no dictator, but more a De Gaulle figure……………..”

Actually Dr. Al Beblawi went on to compare Al Sisi to General De Gaulle and General Dwight Eisenhower (but oddly not Generalísimo Franco, the most famous counter-revolutionary of the last century). Except that neither De Gaulle nor Eisenhower came to power by a military coup d’etat, Franco did. Eisenhower defeated Nazi Germany during the war, and Al Sisi defeated Tahrir Square and liberated Rab’a Al Adawiya and Mohammed Morsi. Come to think of it: why not Napoleon Bonaparte? He also claimed to be saving France. Al Sisi will be hard pressed to show an Austerlitz in his resume, maybe Mr. Mubarak’s War on Pigs of 2009?

De Gaulle’s return to power was called the Fifth Republic. Sisi’s will probably be called the Third Republic (Nasser was the First, Sadat-Mubarak were the Second).

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Syria, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

BYOT Party in Montreux: your Pocket Guide to Geneva on Syria………

      

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The Geneva (actually Montreux) conference on Syria was finally held, after many false starts. Ministers, princes, potentates, and rebels all showed up. They say nearly thirty countries and organizations were invited, or just
crashed the party. It is not clear why 30, unless they mean all the
disparate and desperate Syrian opposition groups and militias and
various Arab potentates. The countries and parties and their interests
could have been represented by only three parties: Secretary Kerry for the
Friends of the Syrian Opposition, the Syrian regime, Russia for the
Friends of the Syrian Regime, and Secretary General Moony of the UN. Oh,
make that four parties: I left out France, since the French still have
the usual Anglo-Saxon complex and need to have their own representative.
It was like a BYOT party at some college. Here is a summary of the highlights and the various positions:

  • The Syrian Opposition (some of it) to Bashar Al Assad: ‘Step down and let us take over’.
  • The Qatari Minister: ‘Yeah, you’re supposed to be a dead man walking. Three years now!’.
  • Syrian government reps: ‘ForgetAboutIt! We are running in the elections‘.
  • Saudi Prince Saud Al Faisal (to Saudi-appointed Al Jarba of the Syrian SNC): ‘Your Excellency Mr. President‘
  • Syria’s Waleed Al Mu’allim (muttering): ‘LOL, president of the Syrian-Turkish border?’
  • Ahmad Al Jarba: ‘LOL in your Baathist eye. I am the legitimate president of the SNC. Ask His Highness the Prince. It says so on my Twitter account @PresidentJarba’.
  • Secretary John Kerry: ‘We are here to negotiate the overthrow of Al Assad and the easing into power of the opposition, wtf they are‘.
  • Ban Ki-Moon (of the UN): ‘It is a good thing I withdrew my invitation to the Iranians. They would have disrupted the conference, and we would not have gotten any results‘.
  • Hassan Rouhani of Iran: ‘Davos is fun-ner than Montreux or Geneva. Cooler egotistical bastards here, but count your fingers after every handshake‘.
  • Al Zawahri from some cave in Pakistan: ‘Next year or the year after in Geneva‘.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, History, Syria

A Syrian Caesar on the Crossing of another Rubicon toward Geneva……….

      

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“The bodies he photographed since the civil war began, showed signs of starvation, brutal beatings, strangulation, and other forms of torture and killing. The defector who was codenamed “Caesar” by the inquiry team had, during the course of his work, smuggled out some tens of thousands of images of corpses so photographed by his colleagues and himself. “Caesar” did not see the torture or executions himself, but photographed the bodies afterward. The report explains, “The reason for photographing executed persons was twofold: First to permit a death certificate to be produced without families requiring to see the body thereby avoiding the authorities having to give a truthful account of their deaths; second to confirm that orders to execute individuals had been carried out.” That is to say, the Baath officials who ordered these 11,000 executions of prisoners of war were afraid that prison guards would take bribes to release the prisoners and just report them dead………….”

In the summer of 2011 I thought the Libyan revolt was becoming a lengthy civil war like Spain. But that was before NATO, Bernard-Henri Levy, John McCain, Qatar, and the UAE intervened to liberate that country. I have also compared the Syrian civil war to the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s. Syria is almost as ugly as Spain was in those years, almost. I have compared the two wars in the past, in an older post in 2011 here and then in another post in 2012 here. There was also another one with the same theme last year. But Spain was not a sectarian war, it was an ideological rehearsal for World War II.
Both sides in Syria have committed atrocities. But the regime almost certainly does it on a much larger scale than the opposition, simply because it has more destructive weapons and more prisons at its disposal, as well as more security agents. And, like all established Arab regimes, it has a more efficient bureaucracy of repression. The regime has a long history as a police state, while the opposition groups are just beginning, already aspiring to start their own future police state, no doubt using the experience of its Arab supporters and Wahhabi allies. The opposition militias have killed less, but they probably aspire to kill many more (of regime supporters and people of other faiths).
Still, one hell of a timing for this so-called Caesar to cross the Rubicon now while the Geneva talks are in session. One thing about the Syrian opposition and their supporters: they know how to time their ‘exposés‘ and leaked photos and videos for maximum effect.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Saudi Arabia

King Congratulates Egyptian President Zombie on Referendum……..

      

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Alarabiya reports that Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has congratulated the military-appointed interim Egyptian President Adly Mansour Al Zombie on the success of the ‘results’ of the referendum on the new constitution.
The Servant of the Two Holy Shrines assured President Al Zombie that the referendum reflected the unity of the Egyptian people as reflected by the results which reflected the free will of the people. Alarabiya reports all that wisdom was in a telegram sent by the king to the Egyptian president. The king, however, did not promise to hold similar free referendums in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Not yet.
Can you believe all this gavno about free will and popular unity (or was it free unity and popular will)? And don’t these guys believe in text-ing these days? I mean it can’t be any more expensive than a telegram.

Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, GCC

HH Shaikh Khalid bin Hamad Al Khalifa Endurance Championship……….

      

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“HH Shaikh Khalid bin Hamad Al Khalifa Endurance Championship will kick off at 7 am tomorrow (Saturday) in Bahrain International Endurance Village. Bahrain Royal Equestrian and Endurance Federation BREEF announced that the veterinary examinations for the 120 km and 84 km (qualifying) races were successfully completed today. The examinations were conducted by international experts and was attended by the Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates UAE and Ruler of Dubai HH Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and the Chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth and Sport, President of Bahrain Olympic Committee and Bahrain Royal Endurance Team Captain HH Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa……………..”
 

Now ain’t that nice? I thought some of my readers might like to know about this. Chalk it up to ‘culture’ or ‘shaikhdomness’ or larceny, or genteel crimes against humanity in doses of tear gas and home raids and torture. With a large dose of apartheid thrown in. Take your pick.

This dude Nasser is a younger son of the ruler, younger than the crown
prince who is now long in the tooth. Apparently reportedly he is likely from a
younger wife of the ruler, allegedly preferred by the Saudi overlords of
Bahrain to the crown prince. The crown prince is seen as ‘soft’ on the
opposition, maybe because he wears glasses and is beardless and occasionally acts as if he wants to meet with them. The young Nasser looks predatory, with a sharp face, more hungry-looking: not the kind you’d want to go mountain-hiking with, and if you do you’d be advised to steer clear from any cliffs or steep drops. The opposition claim he has nothing against the torture of  detainees. As long as he is not on the receiving end.
All allegations, of course. I have never met the guy, but I still would not go mountain-hiking with him.


Cheers
mhg

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Arab Revolutions, France, Iran, Syria, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy

Syria: the Strange Ban Ki-Moon Geneva Rollercoaster Ride, Hollande’s Polygamy………..

      

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A strange series of events regarding the Syrian civil war this past weekend:

  • Late weekend United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon gives a presser and invites Iran to attend the Geneva talks on Syria, surprising some of the “Friends of the Syrian Opposition”.
  • The Obama Administration professes surprise and sort of objects strongly, only sort of.
  • Saudi princes and other potentates object strongly but not openly.
  • Their proxy Mr. Al Jarba objects (he calls himself, I think rather presumptuously, @PresidentJarba on Twitter). Opposition groups and militias and gangs and kidnappers threaten to boycott the meeting and keep Assad in power for five more years.
  • Mufti Shaikh Al Al objects, or he should if he knows what is good for him. But he declines to issue a fatwa.
  • The Israelis probably object on the principle that whatever helps Iran is bad for them, and vice versa. Or maybe I just think so, my knee-jerk reaction.
  • Al Qaeda and its Syrian fronts also object, or so I assume. 
  • Francois Hollande of France probably also objects, as does his current main squeeze, his former main squeeze, and his future main squeezes (the French can be more polygamous than we can be, and often they are, but they don’t admit it).
  • My suspicious mind is almost certain that the prime minister of Bahrain (44 or so years in office and going) also objects strongly through his corpulent foreign minister who is also his nephew or cousin. I still can’t figure out WTF he has got to do with all this.
  •  
  • So, guess what happens next? Bingo! Ban Ki-Moon suddenly implodes: he discovers overnight that maybe Iran should not attend Geneva. He withdraws his invitation for Iran to the Geneva meeting on Syria. A dis-invitation under pressure.
  • The Iranians, who would love to attend, act as if they are not interested in attending. They go further: after being dis-invited they claim that that they would not attend a meeting
    that imposes conditions and prerequisites on them.
  • Saudi semi-official Alarabiya headlines that now the Syrian ‘opposition’ groups will attend Geneva, some of them for the talks, others to buy good Swiss chocolate at duty-free prices. Actually they would attend or not if and when their Saudi bosses tell them to.
  • End of the story for now, until the next Syria meeting later this year. Or maybe sometime next year, or the year after.

Cheers
mhg

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