Category Archives: Arab Revolutions

U.S. Congress Playing Sykes-Picot: Meddling in Iraq, Neglecting America………

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“An influential Shiite cleric threatened Wednesday to attack U.S. interests in Iraq and abroad over a congressional provision to send arms directly to Sunni and Kurdish fighters. The proposed measure in the House Republicans’ defense authorization bill for next year would distribute a quarter of the $715 million authorized to train and equip the Iraqi army outside the government’s control. It’s unclear if the provision will survive the months-long legislative process. “In the event of approving this bill by the U.S. Congress, we will find ourselves obliged to unfreeze the military wing and start targeting the American interests in Iraq — even abroad, which is doable,” said the statement on Muqtada al-Sadr’s website. In a rare turn of events, both al-Sadr and President Barack Obama signaled their opposition to the provision by House Republicans………….”

Iraqis are rightly pissed at the U.S. Congress for meddling in their internal politics. Come to think of it many Iraqis have been pisssed at the U.S. Congress for meddling in their affairs for years. Come to think of it, the American people should be pissed at the U.S. Congress for not achieving much domestically, but they are not: they keep re-electing the same putzes.

Now the Republican Congress is discussing supplying weapons directly to some regional parts of Iraq without consent of the central government in Baghdad. Or the elected Iraqi parliament. Sort of like Russia or China offering to sell weapons to Texas or Vermont directly. Or like Iran offering to sell weapons to Qatif in Saudi Arabia without the consent of Riyadh. Or like the Mexican Cartels selling weapons back to Arizona without the consent of Senator John McCain.

In recent months, nay in recent years, the U.S. Congress has shown that it can act decisively only in matters related to meddling in the Middle East (and especially on issues of concern to Israel’s Likud). Maybe it is time for them to keep their grubby hands off the internal affairs of other countries and focus on matters at home. Rather than try to re-enact the era of Sykes-Picot without the deep knowledge and experience of that era…..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Saudi Dynasty Wars: Jack, Piggy, Ralph, and Lord of the Flies in Arabia………

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“Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz has fired his chosen successor, reportedly over his opposition to the Saudi-led military campaign against Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen. Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, the crown prince and deputy prime minister, was replaced by the king’s nephew as part of a broader shakeup. On Tuesday, the Saudi-led coalition struck the international airport in the Yemeni capital Sana’a, damaging the main runway, to prevent the landing of an Iranian plane, which Iran said carried food and medicine……………….”

Saudi dynasty wars will continue, and they will erupt periodically into an open power struggle, as happened this week. That is how things turn out in the absence of institutional rule.

Saudi King Salman issued an unexpected order deposing Crown Prince Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz. The relatively young Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef was moved up to Crown Prince. Defense Minister and Son of the King Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (reported to be in his upper twenties) was promoted to Crown Prince to the Crown Prince. As usual, Prince Talal Bin Abdulaziz refused to accept the power shift, as apparently did his son Al-Waleed, as reportedly did a bunch of other senior princes.

Some speculated that Prince Muqrin had opposed the bombing attacks on Yemen, while others in Arab media attributed that position to his mother being from Yemen. In addition the King Faisal branch of the royal family was removed from positions of power, starting with long-serving foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal (forty years on the job). The Prince Sultan branch has already been mostly removed, including Bandar and Khaled. The only “outsider” prince to remain in a position of power is Me’eb (or Mut’eb) Bin Abdullah, son of the late king who inherited the powerful National Guard armed forces from his father. There is speculation that he will be on his way out soon.

The Saudis have also moved across the region. They have now allied with Turkey and fellow-Wahhabi Qatar to support the Syrian Al Qaeda franchise Al Nusra Front and other allied Jihadis in Syria. They have continued a relentless bombing campaign on Yemen, which has caused more than a thousand deaths and destroyed much of that poor country’s infrastructure. The war is now in its second month, and it has failed to bring the Houthi-Saleh alliance to heel. They are still expanding their holdings on the ground in the south around Aden, after having largely secured the northern part of Yemen. So far only the Southern Independence Movement and AQAP and a few tribal elements oppose them. So far the Yemen strategy, whatever it is, has failed.

King Salman is not as dumb as he was pictured by some of the opposition: he followed up his ‘palace coup’ with a huge bribe to those that count. He ordered a bonus of one month’s extra salary to be paid to all members of the Saudi security forces and armed forces.

Back in Riyadh: Ralph, Piggy, Simon, Jack, and the Littluns of Arabia are locked in a power struggle…….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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A Solution: Hadi to Join European Union, Erdogan to Join Gulf GCC……..

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During the turmoil of the Arab uprisings of 2011, the Saudi king came up with an interesting idea, what Americans would call “a dilly”. He invited two unlikely Arab kingdoms to join the Gulf Cooperation Council– GCC: humorless Jordan and faraway but certainly more exotic Morocco. Even though the two countries are not located on the Persian Gulf, unlike for example Iraq or Iran or even the United States Navy. Anyway, I opined loudly and persistently that it will never happen, that it was a knee-jerk reaction by the Saudis to the Arab turmoil around them. I suggested that they will end up at most with a sort of watered-down ‘association’. As it happened the Arab turmoil turned the wrong way, and the princes used their money wisely to influence events in Egypt, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Or so they thought. There was even some loose talk of membership and maybe association with military-ruled Egypt. Yemen was never mentioned at that time.

The invitations to the kingdoms of Morocco and Jordan were quietly shelved. The assumption was that Yemen can also forget about it. Now that the country is in turmoil, its former president is on the run, the issue comes up. Reports claim that the former president AbdRabuh Hadi is formally applying for membership of the GCC. The man is not even the true president as his term expired last year and he decided to unilaterally extended his own term, in true Arab fashion. I suppose it could be a way to show that he and his ministers are acting like a real ‘government’. Even after escaping first Sanaa and then Aden to the safety of Riyadh.


It will be interesting if the Saudis encouraged them to apply, or if they decided to spring a spring surprise while the Saudis are busy in their own power struggle. It is possible they resorted to this after failing to raise the expected popular militia in support of the air campaign: the opposition to Houthi-Saleh is mainly Southern Independence, Al Qaeda, and some tribal elements.

Either way, his chances of joining the GCC now are zero, mainly because Hadi will never return and rule in Sanaa. He has as much chance to join the GCC as Erdogan of Turkey has of joining the European Union. This is not to say that Yemen does not fit into the GCC, culturally and historically it could fit. But Yemen has three handicaps:
(1) it is a republic not a monarchy, presumably with an elected president;
(2) it is very poor, and;
(3)it is a large country that has more citizens than Saudi Arabia. Which means it can be the most populous country of the GCC, with all the economic and financial pressures that would create on the rest of the GCC.

So, if I were a joking type, which I probably am not, I would suggest that Yemen Hadi has a better chance to join Europe than the GCC and Erdogan Turkey has a better chance to join the GCC than the European Union. I bet you know where this is leading……….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Al Qaeda Front of Syria Returns to its Wahhabi Roots, No LOL……..

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“Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate and its allies seized the last major government-held city in Idlib province on Saturday, in a blow that could expose the regime’s coastal heartland to rebel attack. The capture of Jisr al-Shughur in the northwestern province comes nearly a month after the same coalition of opposition forces, known as the “Army of Conquest,” overran the provincial capital. The city’s fall opens up a strategic assault route for the rebels to neighbouring Latakia province on the Mediterranean coast, a bastion of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, analysts said……… The jihadists hailed victory on their official Twitter account, claiming that “The mujahideen have entered the city centre. The city has been liberated,” Al-Nusra said…………….”

Al Nusra Front has refused to severe its ties with Al Qaeda, but that has not prevented America’s closest Middle East allies from throwing their lot with it. There have been credible reports over the past few weeks that the Saudis, Qataris, and Turkish potentates have given up on the other Syrian opposition groups. They have decided, at least for now, to support the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria as the only group that can give the Assad regime (and its Iranian and Lebanese allies) a hard time. They apparently hope that a refurbished Al Nusra Front, although still an Al Qaeda franchise, could eventually become acceptable to the United States.
My guess is that almost anything would be acceptable to Republican hawks in the Senate (McCain et al) if it appears to have a chance to challenge the Syrians and their allies, so long as it is not called ISIS (for now). Especially if it comes flush with cash to dispense to lobbyists and current and former politicians (the example of the rehabilitation of the Iranian Mujahideen Khalq, MEK, is one example).
That Turkish-Saudi-Qatari coordination (the Wahhabi tripartite) might explain the relative success of the terrorist group. It partly explains the concentration of its operations in areas with easy access to the Turkish Caliphate of Erdogan. Turkey, with its open border policy, has been as responsible as the saudi and Qatari princes and potentates for the growth of the Jihadis in Syria.
Interesting that I mused here about the possibility of the Wahhabi potentates bringing the Al Qaeda back from the cold. They seem to be well on their way, but don’t expect Al Zawahri to hold meetings with Congressional leaders anytime soon (and forget the LOL).
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter [email protected]

Weird Saudi War on Yemen: Reluctant Allies, a Ceasefire Prank………

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“Saudi Arabia’s resumption of airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen on Wednesday, only hours after it abruptly declared a halt to most military operations, reflected the difficulty of finding a political solution to the crisis. It also showed the challenges facing the Obama administration as it increasingly relies on allies in the Middle East. Senior Saudi officials made clear on Wednesday that they had not formally declared an end to bombing………”

Saudi behavior in their war on Yemen is getting weirder almost by the day:

First, they demanded that former president General Hadi who has escaped from Sanaa then from Aden be reinstated. He presided over part of Yemen, his allies were quite corrupt, and he is not liked because he invited foreign bombings and invasion of his country. I have told them, nay fatwa-ed, in postings here that Hadi will never return to Sanaa (no matter how long he travels لا صنعاء ولو طال السفر ), most likely not even to Aden. Apparently they did not listen.

Second, they invited Turkey and Pakistan and Egypt to join the assault on Yemen. Only Egypt was partly amenable, and the humorless Kingdom of Jordan to a limited extent.

Third, this war is presumably led by new defense minister Prince Muhammad, son of King Salman, who is in his twenties. Highly unlikely that he is ‘leading’ or strategizing the campaign: he has been on the job only a few weeks. I’d bet the farm, if I had a farm, that he is being strongly advised by others, mainly foreigners, on strategy.

Fourth, they’ve spent a month bombing cities, infrastructure and military installations, killing many Yemenis and wounding more. Yet they claim they were doing it for the Yemeni people. They warned of an Iranian “presence” in Houthi Yemen, yet nobody could locate a single Iranian soldier or Revolutionary Guard or bricklayer anywhere in Yemen.

Fifth, the bombing campaign has failed. The Saudi king issued a decree inviting or authorizing the National Guard NG to join the battle. The NG is a ground force owned by Prince Meteb (Muteb if you will) bin Abdullah, who inherited it from his late father King Abdullah. Maybe they were setting him up for a medal.

Sixth, one day later they declared that their military strikes on Yemen have ended.

Seventh, within hours of the declaration of cessation of bombing they resumed bombing Yemen. Confusing moves by the confused; or maybe it was a prank.

Eighth, there are reasonably credible reports that other GCC states are in this adventure reluctantly. The United Arab Emirates, UAE, is reported to be unhappy about it. Oman has wisely refused to join this Wahhabi crusade. The other Gulf potentates are sort of barely in it, but it is really a Saudi-American operation.

Ninth, very important, they have no shortages of the best weapons that the western powers can manufacture and export. Can it tip the balance against the lightly-armed Houthis? Maybe it can, but the war is confined to one-sided aerial bombing………

And that is where it stands………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Bentleys for Bombs: a Saudi Prince Treats his Pilots as Bounty Hunters……..

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Saudi Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal, a nephew of the king, is into money. I mean really into it, not just through his Kingdom Holdings. Like most of them he believes he can buy it all with money, and maybe he is right. Immediately after the terrorist attacks of September 11 he showed up in New York with a big cheque of several millions. He was doing fine until he opened his mouth about “Jews” and “Jewish” influence and how it affected the attacks. The mayor of New York correctly returned his cheque, possibly told him where to shove it. Later on, the prince initiated a lawsuit against Forbes Magazine for underestimating his true wealth by a few billion. It must be nice being a Saudi prince, provided you are also born with the mindset.

One month after their military onslaught against the Yemenis, he did it again, in typical Saudi royal fashion. He flashed money at their military men. Prince Al-Waleed tweeted that he was gifting 100 Bentleys to the one hundred Saudi pilots who bombed the hell out of Yemen. An obscene gesture from one of the richest Arab princes to reward the men who destroyed the poorest Arab country outside Africa. He treated the pilots like they were ‘bounty hunters’ of the Old West: essentially a bounty for killing and destroying a poor country. The prince quickly erased this offer from his Twitter account: either he was strongly advised against it or he realized there has been no victory yet. Or maybe he had not realized how much a Bentley costs. Most likely someone higher up than him thought the prince was trying to steal the limelight, or the thunder, from him.

I can’t imagine Al Sisi of Egypt or Erdogan of Turkey or Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan offering their pilots a Bentley each. Or affording such obscenity: bounty for killings. Maybe that is one reason they declined to join the war on Yemen. It is a rich man’s war against the poorest of Arabs.

And that is where it stands…..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Genocide in Southern Arabia: Proxy War, Schmoxy War………

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“The fighting in Yemen risked escalating still further as American defence officials said the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier, was steaming towards Yemeni waters potentially to intercept suspected Iranian arms shipments to the Houthi rebels. Since last week, the Pentagon has been voicing alarm about a convoy of ships bound for Yemen from Iran, suspicious that its aim is to resupply the rebels as they fight pro-government forces to try to seize control of the country. The Roosevelt, already in the Arabian Sea, will join other US Navy assets already in the Gulf of Aden ………Already seen to be fighting a proxy war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iran now risk a more direct confrontation………….”

How can they say Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war? Saudi warplanes and missiles raining death and destruction everyday on Yemenis. This is not a proxy war: it is a direct Saudi war against Yemen, with a lot of help from Western allies………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Hadi Bin Hameededdin of Yemen: I Shall Not Return……..

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When deposed former president Hadi won the “election” by an amazing 99.8% of the vote, something only Arab despots do. He beat Al Sisi (only 98%), Al Assad (a paltry 88%) and Rouhani (an embarrassing 51%). He even beat Saddam Hussein.

This year he escaped Sanaa for Aden, allegedly disguised in a hijab and abaya (in drag but no pumps), he forgot to announce: I Shall Return.
A few days later when predictably he could not inspire anyone in Aden and he escaped Aden for Djibouti then Riyadh, he also failed to declare: I Shall Return.
During his weeks in Riyadh exile Hadi has urged increased foreign bombing of his people and a foreign ground invasion of his country. From the safety of Riyadh. But maybe he began to see the writing on the wall. No wonder he still would not declare: I Shall Return.
In a few weeks, when the Zombie flees again to his inevitable permanent exile in Abu Dhabi or Cairo, he probably will finally remember to declare: I think I shall return, and I mean it.
He will not. Not after he has urged and cheered the bombs falling on his people and his country. Whatever the outcome of this war on Yemen, whoever wins if anyone does, he will not return as leader of Yemen, something he has never been anyway.

Al Badr of Hameededdin never returned either after 1962, even with all the Saudi resources and money and weapons that tried to get him back into Sanaa.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Princes of La Mancha: Saudis Still Seeking Hired Foreign Forces for Yemen…….

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“Pakistan’s parliament on Friday unanimously approved a resolution promising the country will stay neutral in the conflict in Yemen, despite Saudi requests for Islamabad to participate in the coalition fighting Shi’ite Houthi rebels. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had summoned the emergency joint session to debate a Saudi request for Sunni-dominated Pakistan to send its warships, planes and ground troops to help the Saudi-led military coalition. A heated debate continued for five days, as many lawmakers strongly opposed any Pakistani military intervention in Yemen. They feared such a move would fuel sectarian tensions inside Pakistan………..”

Saudi Deputy Deputy Crown Prince (who is also Minister of Interior) Mohammed Bin Nayef Al Saud flew to Turkey last week. The common assessment is that he wanted Turkish help in the military operations in Yemen. That came just before President Erdogan flew to Tehran. Erdogan had blasted Iran for its alleged interference in Yemen (and other places), but after his Saudi and Tehran meetings he moderated his comments. Turkey is mostly Sunni, which means the sectarian-oriented Saudis think it can provide “Sunni” military help. The problem is that only about 75% of Turks are Sunnis, and the Turks could develop an Alevi or Shi’a problem that has been so far dormant, especially in the south.

Last weekend, Saudi defense minister, the youngster Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud flew to Egypt for meetings with his Egyptian counterpart, and possibly with Al Sisi. The Egyptian media has been gung-ho last week on intervention in Yemen, complete with headlines about the “Shi’a threat” to Egypt. Egyptian media are rarely subtle and almost never into due diligence, and some of them even accused “Shi’a and Iranian” agents of terrorist acts in Sinai. Yet Al Sisi seems hesitant about sending his soldiers into Yemen to fight for the Saudis. Some Saudi Wahhabi opposition groups, those who support ISIS and Al Qaeda, claim that he is holding out for more money from the princes. Yet Egypt has a history in Yemen that it would not want to repeat.

Pakistan under the Nawaz Sharif administration was seen as a reliable source of mercenary troops to fight the Saudi war in Yemen. Yet Mr. Sharif has met with Turkey’s Erdogan and with the Iranian FM Zarif last week. After which he threw the ball in the court of the Pakistani parliament with a request to authorize intervention. The Saudis are reported by some media to have asked for “Sunni” soldiers. But Pakistan is some 20% Shi’a (about 30-35 million of them), and it is already facing sectarian terrorist acts in some major cities. The Pakistani parliament voted this week unanimously against “renting” their army to the Saudi princes. After which Anwar Gargash, a minor state minister in the United ِArab Emirates played his best card. The UAE minister threatened that Pakistan will pay “a cost” for its decision not to join the war on Yemen. Meaning financial blackmail.

This leaves Egypt, which has been monitoring the Turkish and Pakistani developments. The only country among the three which has had experience fighting in Yemen in recent times. Will Field Marshal Al Sisi jump into the fray and provide canon fodder, at the “right price”?

Stay tuned………….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Southern Arabia: a Faltering Storm………

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“Iran’s leader on Thursday condemned as genocide the military intervention by its main regional rival Saudi Arabia in Yemen, sharply escalating Tehran’s rhetoric against the two-week-old air strike campaign. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Saudi Arabia would not emerge victorious from the war in Yemen, where Iran-allied Houthi fighters who control the capital Sanaa have been trying to seize the southern city of Aden from local militias. Iran has repeatedly urged a halt in the air strikes and called for dialogue in Yemen, but Khamenei’s comments are the most critical yet from Tehran about the offensive by Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies………….”

Two weeks of American-supported and coordinated brutal Saudi bombings have failed to achieve any results other than destroy the fragile infrastructure of Yemen. The best and most expensive machines of war that the West has ever produced have been pitted against the poorest Arab country outside Africa, against a Houthi militia and its army allies. So far it has been a failure, whatever goal its planning princes had in mind. So far. The result must have shocked the attackers (Saudi Arabia and its allies): predictable air supremacy for one side against supremacy on the ground for the other.
So, the Yemeni-Houthi air force has been effectively destroyed or grounded. The Yemeni-Houthi ground offensive continues to gobble up territory from Sanaa to Aden to Shabwah. Other army units, possibly infuriated by foreign warplanes raining death and destruction on their country, on their people, have shifted allegiance to the Houthis and Saleh and handed other bases over. We can say that the escaped ex-president AbdRabuh (so far) Mansour Hadi now controls only part of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. That is the area where he lives. (Those fighting the Houthi-Saleh forces around Aden are mostly southern secessionists (Hirak), not Hadi loyalists as Western media report).

This alleged Decisive Storm, led by a young Saudi prince, a defense minister who is reported to be younger than 30 years, has been not so decisive. They have intensified the bombings, possibly in frustration. So far Decisive Storm looks to confirm my earlier description of it: more like a Stupid Storm quickly morphing into a Faltering Storm, rather than a remake of Desert Storm. So far………..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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