Category Archives: Arab Politics

Arab Politics, Blockade of Iran, Middle East Nuclear, Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy

Iran Nuclear Deal: Who Speaks for the Arabs?………

July 17, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

No other group of Middle East countries have ever sought so tenaciously to keep a foreign blockade against one of their neighboring countries in modern times. With the exception of about three absolute Arab regimes along the Persian Gulf who fought tooth and nail to keep the Western Blockade against Iran.
President Obama is reported this week to have arranged telephone calls with the king of Saudi Arabia and the crown prince of Abu Dhabi (effective ruler of the UAE). The goal is to explain to these potentates the nuclear deal with Iran. American media claim that Mr. Obama seeks to explain the Iran nuclear deal “to the Arabs“. Except that the Saudi king rules over only about 17 million citizens, the Abu Dhabi (UAE) potentate rules over only about one million citizens. These two potentates may speak for their own citizens only (maybe). They don’t represent 250-300 million Arabs extending from the Persian Gulf to the Atlas Mountains. Most of these other non-Gulf Arabs don’t oppose this deal. There are also many people along the shores of Gulf, from Oman through Dubai, Bahrain, Qatif and other places who don’t oppose it. The rulers of Saudi Arabia, and much of their “inland” Wahhabi peoples, plus the rulers of Bahrain and their local allies, and many in Qatar (only the tiny minority who are citizens) are probably among the strongest opponents of the deal and support continuation of the Western Blockade.
As are Salafis along the Gulf and across other Arab regions, including the likes of ISIS (DAESH) and Al-Nusra and many of their leading Abu’s. They join the Israelis and their strong American lobby in pushing for a continuation of the blockade as the second choice if an American war is not on the table. The nuclear program has never been the real issue for these bedfellows: it is more about the expansion of Iranian political influence across the region.
Most Arabs in the Eastern Mediterranean support the deal and the lifting of the Western blockade, or are at least indifferent. Most in North Africa, from Egypt to the farthest western Arab country of Morocco also hold the same position. But then there is hardly any Iranian political influence across North Africa.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Elections, Arab Politics, Terrorism

Potentates of Strasbourg: Arab Parliaments Roaring Like Mice…….

July 5, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

The deputy president of some imaginary entity called the “Arab Parliament” emphasized the importance of a ‘plan of action’ being prepared by the “Arab Parliament” to tackle terrorism in the Arab world. He said this will prepare realistic methods to fight terrorism’ and all “foreign plots” besieging the Arab world. Apparently there are no “domestic plots” besieging the Arab world.

That is fine and dandy, preparing a plan of action for fighting terrorism and all foreign plots. In fact plans of action are very popular in the Arab world, usually prepared by groups, each created and set up by a subcommittee of a committee of a bunch of others.

Of course there is no such thing as an “Arab Parliament”. There are no elections for an Arab “Parliament”. It is just a bombastic title that tries to sound like the truly elected European Parliament in Strasbourg. They only hold periodic gatherings of representatives of Arab parliamentarians and appointed councils and other government representatives. Only six Arab countries have what we can call “parliaments”, with a stretch, with some varying degrees of authority: Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait. The rest have appointed councils, one or two are even called parliaments by mistake, selected or named outright by kings, potentates, or military dictators.

Now if they hold their meetings (they are not sessions) in Strasbourg, many more might be tempted to run for office. There would be bitter fights within the members of local tribes to win and hang around Strasbourg. Hell, I would do so if I were one of these tribal types.

Now if they can do what real parliaments do, ensuring the rights and the power of the people…………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Baath Party, Iraq

Death of Tariq Aziz: Last Evocation of a Bygone Potemkin Arab Order…….

June 8, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Tariq Aziz died in prison in his homeland, Iraq.

The significance of remembering the old Iraqi Baathist is not related to Tariq himself and his achievements. It is that he reminds us, me and most others, of a bygone era in Arab politics and history. Aziz was one of the last survivors of the old Arab post World War II order that almost lasted fifty years. An order that saw the rise of militarized secular Pan-Arabism through the messages of Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt, the Baathists of Syria and Iraq, and the leftist young revolutionary rulers of Libya and Algeria. There was a period of hope in the fifties and sixties, but it did not last. That movement also gradually degenerated into tribal and family dynasties. A stagnant Arab order followed that was seen as stability.

That old Arab order unravelled with the Iraqi Baathist invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait and the consequent war was a direct consequence of the financial bankruptcy of the Baathist regime after the invasion of Iran in 1980 and the war that lasted eight years. The Arab order had begun to crack with the war of 1980, as Syria and other Arab states, including Libya and Algeria and some Palestinian factions, refused to support Saddam Hussein.

The Salafi terrorist attacks on the United States in 2001 and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and their consequences formalized the collapse of the old Arab regime. The West is now back in the region in force. Even the old British colonials are establishing a military base in little Bahrain (now if they can only take it over again and rebuild its political system back to 1971).

The Arab uprisings of 2011 have mostly failed, but they showed a positive development: it underlined a new disrespect to their ruling oligarchs and dictators and a willingness by Arabs to express it. Then along came AQI, ISIS, Al Nusra, Army of Islamic Conquest, Al Tibin, Al Zift and other Salafi groups. They make even the old Al Qaeda look tame. The horrendous mass atrocities by various armed factions in Syria and Iraq and Libya and Egypt are clear signals that the old Arab order is effectively buried. What we have now is a Potemkin Order: all front but no substance behind it.

The death of Tariq Hanna Aziz, one survivor of the older order, came as a symbolic event at a convenient moment, with ISIS expanding in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and possibly the Arabian Peninsula. His death is a reminder of how much has changed and the uncertainty of the future.
That is why it is a sad occasion. Not because the old Baathist died, but because of what it reminds us of.
Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, Gulf states, Sectarianism

Fire and Frying Pan in the GCC: Sectarian Politics, Tribal Politics, Oligarchy Politics……..

June 4, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Thinking of my post yesterday about oligarchy and meritocracy made me go back and do some uncharacteristic critical rereading of its general topic.

If you read a list of ministers in any Gulf GCC state, one fact stands out: the most important and most powerful public positions are almost always taken by members of the ruling families. That is often cited as a gateway to corruption. In most cases it is true, as I have pointed out in some examples here.

The issue of regime security is an important factor why security and armed forces are kept ‘within the family’. But in some of these tribal societies the issue is more complicated by two divisive factors which create some support for this concentration of power:

Tribalism: tribalism is rampant in the region, as is tribal nepotism. Tribal ministers or other high officials who are not from ruling families tend to create their own corruption in some of the Gulf states. Any tribal cabinet minister or high official worth his salt will usually tend to favor members of his own tribe. In some of these countries a minister of oil (for example) from Tribe X will literally stuff his ministry and its subsidiary companies with his own tribal kin. A minister of finance from Tribe Y will do the same. Ditto for ministers and directors of various service ministries and departments. One can see it just from a list of heads of departments and the concentration of employees.
All that creates suspicion and insecurity among other non-tribal or minority members of society.
Sectarianism: members of minority sects tend to fear that a minister from a particular majority sect will favor members of his own sect. Members of a majority sect will also fear that a minister from a minority sect will favor his own.

Hence there are specific cases where large swathes of society prefer a minister from the ruling family to another from among the ruled. Especially if the alternative is someone from another specific sect (or tribe). Members of ruling dynasties are often deemed relatively more neutral and seem more like arbitrator of society than others. Even if they also often abuse, misuse, and mismanage the resources. This attitude is especially true among ethnic and religious and tribal minorities. This is quite clear in one particular GCC state where most opposition political leaders and many members of the political opposition are from one large tribe (plus another tribe) and from among extreme sectarian Islamists. It has very few members of the minority sect supporting it. I have written on this particular case before.

Of course that is not true in all cases: in some Gulf and Arabian Peninsula states, in two GCC kingdoms in particular, members of the ruling oligarchy are as tribal and sectarian as anyone else, if not more. And they beat everyone else in corruption.

It is a tough choice for some, stoked by fear, a choice between the frying pan and the fire……..

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, GCC, Media, Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia

Laughingstock of MENA? Oligarchs Hijack the Anger of Arab Youth, LOL…….

May 15, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

A lot of conferences and symposiums and fora are held in the Gulf region. All allegedly representing the whole Arab world, from the Gulf to the Atlas Mountains. Another one was held recently in Dubai which seemed to trend toward pinning the blame for Arab problems on anybody but those responsible: the Arab establishment.

Just why are the Arabs angry? And how angry are the “young Arabs” at being “a laughingstock” according to Roger Cohen and Amr Moussa? And do the masses of Arab youths from Iraq to Morocco really give a hoot about the preferences and prejudices of unelected Gulf oligarchs?

And who best expresses the anger of Arab “youth” according to most Western media types and pundits?
Why, it is first of all Amr Moussa, former Egyptian foreign minister then secretary general of the Arab League under Hosni Mubarak. Who else can express revolutionary anger but an octogenarian man of the establishment? Then after that who else but the absolute Saudi princes, then the absolute oligarchs of the UAE and Bahrain and Qatar.

And why are the Arab youth allegedly supposedly perhaps so angry that Persian Iran has influence in the Persian Gulf, but they are not angry that Britain, France, Monaco, and Colombian mercenaries are building bases in the same Persian Gulf faster than petro-money can finance them? And why are these “youths of the whole Arab world” allegedly represented by a handful of foreign absolute kings, princes, potentates, and their paid media minions?

And why are Arab youths, according to Amr Moussa and others, not angry at their rulers instead of being angry at foreigners who take advantage of meddling opportunities created by the rulers? Shouldn’t they be angry, as they used to be in past decades, at their rulers for enabling foreigners (Iranians, Turks, Israelis, Westerners) to wield influence?

All this puzzling “stuff” I gleaned from the recent article by Roger Cohen in the New York Times. Written in the warm afterglow of a well-fed six-star conference in the United Arab Emirates. While the Yemenis next door got bombed and starved by the same brotherly and sisterly Arab oligarchs.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Mocha Con Kafka: Southern Arabia as a Testing Ground for Royal Weapons……..

May 15, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

Finally the Saudi princes had a chance to use their hundred billion dollars of weapons stockpiles. They chose Southern Arabia, or events chose Yemen for them.

Except that they used it in their usual shadow-dancing: they used the best Western weapons that money can buy, at a huge cost of prices and bribes, but they used them in yet another Arab country. A country that has not attacked them. This time the poorest Arab country outside Africa became the testing ground. Last time it was Bahrain, but that was a security operation. This one in Yemen became a genocidal massacre of people, destruction of cities and infrastructure and food supplies. A genocide against a whole country, even as the local Yemeni factions are killing each other, largely but predictably ignored by Western media. The remnants of Arab liberals, with keen trained eyes focused on Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati money, have largely ignored the attack on Yemen.

The Saudis harkened to the simpler days of Desert Storm, when the cause was clear: Saddam’s Baathist army had occupied a sovereign country and was trounced by an American-led Western coalition, with a few Arab brigades for window-dressing. Never original, they came up with Decisive Storm, which has proved anything but decisive. The ragtag Houthi tribals and their Yemeni army allies withstood the air assault and forced a ceasefire. The escaped former president of Yemen, General AbdRabuh Hadi (Bin Zombie) and his foreign minister and their corrupt Islah (Muslim Brotherhood) partners kept urging more war and a land invasion, into a war they had both escaped and would not fight. The Saudis may have even used the fateful motto “Mission Accomplished”, a la George W Bush in the early days of the Iraq War.

So, will the absolute repressive tribal non-elected Saudi and Qatari potentates force a democratic elected government on Yemen? Would that be through the reinstatement of the weakling General Hadi and his corrupt Islah (local Muslim Brotherhood) allies? Oddly, or maybe not, Islah is Arabic for Reform, but it was anything but reform). Both prospects are unlikely: there an Arab saying that “one can’t bestow what one doesn’t have : فاقد الشيئ لا يعطيه“. An excellent and appropriate saying in the rich Arab tradition. But the Middle East strives to be a little bit more Kafkaesque than the rest of the world.

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, GCC, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, US Foreign Policy

Camp David and the Nusra Front Expose the Saudi Inferiority Complex……..

May 12, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

The media punditry and noise about the upcoming Gulf GCC summit with President Obama at Camp David have exposed certain facts about Saudi Arabia and its relations and aspirations within the region. They have exposed a deep inferiority complex and dangerous insecurity that have exacerbated instability in the Middle East. Just look at the mess that Syria and Iraq and Yemen have become. Let us look at the few countries that the Saudis feel threatened by and create this inferiority complex:
Iran: has some 77 million native people, a diverse economy that has withstood the Western blockade for decades, despite economic mismanagement by the mullahs and lower (deliberately engineered) petroleum prices. It is relatively highly advanced in technology: nuclear and space and medical as well as other industries, probably partly a result of a self reliance forced by the blockade.
Iraq: some 30 million (now), multi-cultural with huge untapped petroleum reserves, and a diverse economy.
Egypt: some 80 million people, a potentially diverse economy and dormant technical knowledge.
Yemen: even poor Yemen has a larger population than Saudi Arabia (26 million citizens against some 16 million Saudi citizens). And an interesting ancient history.
Turkey: a relatively new state with a short history by Middle East standards, but a diverse economy and a gateway to Europe. If only the Caliph Erdogan would stop supporting Jihadi cutthroats in Arab politics.
(Israel: the outlier in the group, but militarily powerful and technically the most advanced in the Middle East. They don’t worry about it because it is non-Islamic non-Arab and hence not a rival; besides, it is either a real or a potential ally against the others).

All these countries have a long history of settled civilization, some of the oldest in the world (with the exception of Turkey).

Is it any wonder the Saudis feel insecure, when they have to rely on foreign labor and foreign products and imported mercenaries to such an extent? When the princes have to pay Sudanese and Moroccans and Senegalese to fight their wars, even against impoverished Yemen? Now they are supreme within the small club of the Gulf GCC. They are assured to remain the largest state, the big man in the club. That is why they will never accept any new members, rivals that are larger and/or more advanced. That is why they will try to make sure other larger states in the region, real and potential rivals, remain distant and weak.
That is why they do the voodoo that they do: try to keep the Western blockade on Iran, keep Egypt weak and politically divided and subservient, try to keep Iraq divided, try in vain to get and keep control of Yemen.

That is why they introduced their strongest strategic weapon so far: politicized modern Islamic sectarianism. They have (re)introduced it into the region and use it extensively to divide and weaken their rivals and maintain their power at home. The alleged Sunni-Shi’a war is in reality an attempt to extend the Wahhabi war on other Islamic sects, on other faiths.
What are ISIS and Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and AQAP and the rest of the intolerant Jihadi gangs but Wahhabism taken literally to its extreme? Speaking of which: reports now tell us that Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Turkey are backing Al Nusra Front in Syria, the certified approved Al Qaeda franchise in that country. Anything for the appearance of an elusive victory on their rivals.

Gulf GCC Comes to Camp David: the Addled, the Wretched, and Emma Lazarus………

Phony Arab Fear of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Catharsis and Kumbaya at Camp David………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Food, Iran, Israel, Middle East, U.S. Foreign Policy

Hungry Militias: Who is Backing Whom in the Middle East and Across the World………

May 8, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

“The letter accused rebels and forces loyal to former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh of “targeting anything that moves in the city of Aden, preventing medical teams and volunteers from reaching the injured and killing humanitarian agents.” Forces supporting President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, backed by airstrikes, battled Houthi fighters, who took control of the port, Yemeni officials said. The clashes are the latest in Yemen’s months of violence, which exploded before Hadi’s ouster from Yemen by the Iranian-backed Houthis………..”

(FYI: there are no forces supporting Hadi. Not even the Saudis. Only Hadi supports Hadi. Those fighting around Aden against Houthis-Saleh are fighters of Southern Independence or AQAP).

Media here in the United States have a way of describing certain Arab or Muslim political entities or groups by their perceived affiliations. Especially political or military groups that they dislike or disapprove of. For example, any Middle East group deemed friendly with the Iranian regime is described as Iranian-backed (or Iranian-supported) w.x.y.z, and I can almost read or hear a disapproving sniffle. I never read a description like Saudi-backed (or Saudi-supported) q.w.e.r.t.y. No mention of Saudi-backed or Qatari-backed or Turkish-backed Nusra Front. So, I have suggested a list of other potential backed-by list, just to even the playing field (or is it the killing field?):

Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a Militias; Iranian-backed Houthi Zaidi Shi’as; Iranian-backed Hezbollah; Iranian-backed Hamas; Iranian-backed Assad; Iranian-backed anyone who is not Saudi-backed; Iranian-backed Texas used-car Dealer Wannabe Assassin Arbabsiar (LOL);
Saudi-backed Wahhabis; Saudi-backed Hariri; Saudi-backed Hadi (actually nobody-backed Hadi); Saudi-funded Jihadis; Senegal-backed Saudis; French-backed Saudis; Saudi-Qatari-Turkish-backed Nusra Front; Saudi-Ignored AQAP in Yemen; Saudi-backed Likud;
Qatari-backed Ikhwan; Qatari-backed Hamas; Qatari-backed Jihadis; Qatari-funded FIFA officials; Emirati-backed Sisi; Emirati-backed Clinton Foundation; Saudi-backed Bush Library;
Turkish-backed Nusra Front; Salafi-backed Caliphate; American-backed FSA; American-backed Jihadis in Syria; British-backed Bahrain Rulers;
Republican-backed Netanyahu; Netanyahu-backed GOP; Adelson-backed contenders; Caliphate-backed Naftali Bennett; PLO-backed Ayelet Shaked;

We can also extend this to other, er, interests: Honey-Baked Ham (something I wouldn’t eat); Chinese-style Beijing Duck and Chicken Kung-Pao; English-style Fish and Chips; Ballpark-style Hot Dogs; Arab-Style Fried Sheep Brain; Serbian-Style Fried Sheep Balls (a k a: fried sheep cojones, بيض غنم)……………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Dynasty Wars: Jack, Piggy, Ralph, and Lord of the Flies in Arabia………

April 30, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

“Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz has fired his chosen successor, reportedly over his opposition to the Saudi-led military campaign against Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen. Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, the crown prince and deputy prime minister, was replaced by the king’s nephew as part of a broader shakeup. On Tuesday, the Saudi-led coalition struck the international airport in the Yemeni capital Sana’a, damaging the main runway, to prevent the landing of an Iranian plane, which Iran said carried food and medicine……………….”

Saudi dynasty wars will continue, and they will erupt periodically into an open power struggle, as happened this week. That is how things turn out in the absence of institutional rule.

Saudi King Salman issued an unexpected order deposing Crown Prince Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz. The relatively young Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Nayef was moved up to Crown Prince. Defense Minister and Son of the King Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (reported to be in his upper twenties) was promoted to Crown Prince to the Crown Prince. As usual, Prince Talal Bin Abdulaziz refused to accept the power shift, as apparently did his son Al-Waleed, as reportedly did a bunch of other senior princes.

Some speculated that Prince Muqrin had opposed the bombing attacks on Yemen, while others in Arab media attributed that position to his mother being from Yemen. In addition the King Faisal branch of the royal family was removed from positions of power, starting with long-serving foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal (forty years on the job). The Prince Sultan branch has already been mostly removed, including Bandar and Khaled. The only “outsider” prince to remain in a position of power is Me’eb (or Mut’eb) Bin Abdullah, son of the late king who inherited the powerful National Guard armed forces from his father. There is speculation that he will be on his way out soon.

The Saudis have also moved across the region. They have now allied with Turkey and fellow-Wahhabi Qatar to support the Syrian Al Qaeda franchise Al Nusra Front and other allied Jihadis in Syria. They have continued a relentless bombing campaign on Yemen, which has caused more than a thousand deaths and destroyed much of that poor country’s infrastructure. The war is now in its second month, and it has failed to bring the Houthi-Saleh alliance to heel. They are still expanding their holdings on the ground in the south around Aden, after having largely secured the northern part of Yemen. So far only the Southern Independence Movement and AQAP and a few tribal elements oppose them. So far the Yemen strategy, whatever it is, has failed.

King Salman is not as dumb as he was pictured by some of the opposition: he followed up his ‘palace coup’ with a huge bribe to those that count. He ordered a bonus of one month’s extra salary to be paid to all members of the Saudi security forces and armed forces.

Back in Riyadh: Ralph, Piggy, Simon, Jack, and the Littluns of Arabia are locked in a power struggle…….

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Genocide, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Genocide in Southern Arabia: Proxy War, Schmoxy War………

April 21, 2015 Mohammed Haider Ghuloum

“The fighting in Yemen risked escalating still further as American defence officials said the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier, was steaming towards Yemeni waters potentially to intercept suspected Iranian arms shipments to the Houthi rebels. Since last week, the Pentagon has been voicing alarm about a convoy of ships bound for Yemen from Iran, suspicious that its aim is to resupply the rebels as they fight pro-government forces to try to seize control of the country. The Roosevelt, already in the Arabian Sea, will join other US Navy assets already in the Gulf of Aden ………Already seen to be fighting a proxy war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iran now risk a more direct confrontation………….”

How can they say Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war? Saudi warplanes and missiles raining death and destruction everyday on Yemenis. This is not a proxy war: it is a direct Saudi war against Yemen, with a lot of help from Western allies………

Cheers
Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
[email protected]

Arabia Deserta: MENA Focus

Category Archives: Arab Politics

Iran Nuclear Deal: Who Speaks for the Arabs?………

Potentates of Strasbourg: Arab Parliaments Roaring Like Mice…….

Death of Tariq Aziz: Last Evocation of a Bygone Potemkin Arab Order…….

Fire and Frying Pan in the GCC: Sectarian Politics, Tribal Politics, Oligarchy Politics……..

Laughingstock of MENA? Oligarchs Hijack the Anger of Arab Youth, LOL…….

Mocha Con Kafka: Southern Arabia as a Testing Ground for Royal Weapons……..

Camp David and the Nusra Front Expose the Saudi Inferiority Complex……..

Hungry Militias: Who is Backing Whom in the Middle East and Across the World………

Saudi Dynasty Wars: Jack, Piggy, Ralph, and Lord of the Flies in Arabia………

Genocide in Southern Arabia: Proxy War, Schmoxy War………

Multidisciplinary: Middle East, North Africa, Gulf, GCC, World, Cosmos…..