Category Archives: Arab Politics

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Libya, North Africa, Syria

From Libya to Syria: Tribes and Sects with One Flag…………

 

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“Tribal leaders and militia commanders in oil-rich eastern Libya have declared their intention to seek semi-autonomy, raising fears that the country might disintegrate following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), the interim central government based in the capital Tripoli, has repeatedly voiced its opposition to the creation of a partly autonomous eastern region, warning it could eventually lead to the break-up of the North African nation. Thousands of representatives of major tribal leaders, militia commanders and politicians made the declaration on Tuesday in a ceremony held in the eastern city of Benghazi. They vowed to end decades of marginalisation under Gaddafi and named a council to run the affairs of the newly created region, extending from the central coastal city of Sirte to the Egyptian border in the east. Al Jazeera’s Nicole Johnston, reporting from the capital Tripoli, said the announcement was only the beginning of a process………...”

That is what happens when the façade of ‘nationhood’ that Qaddafi violently maintained collapses. Yet oil, petroleum, is the one item most likely to keep Libya from breaking apart now.
Most Arab states are basically a balance of tribal, ethnic, and sectarian interests. Egypt is famously the one exception. Egypt is not a tribal society and it has historically accepted a multi-ethnic culture (contrary to common belief, Egyptian people have roots from all around the Mediterranean and the rest of the Middle East). The Christian Copts were never an “issue” until the Mubarak regime started to dismantle the secular state that was initiated in the days of Mohammed Ali (Pasha not Clay). Egyptian Jews were not an “issue” until after the first Palestine War of 1948 (what Arabs call the Nakba, catastrophe, and Jews call Israel’s War of Independence). In Egypt, Shi’as are a tiny minority that the Mubarak regime magnified and built up into an illusory threat, no doubt under Saudi Wahhabi pressure. Now, with the political system of Egypt Islamized, with the Salafis effectively sharing parliamentary power with the Muslim Brotherhood, all bets are off.
 
In Syria also sectarian, tribal, and ethnic divisions are coming out into the open. Except Syria has more of these divisions, deeper divisions, longer suppressed than either Libya or Egypt. And Syria has been under the Ba’athist rule since 1963, under effective Ba’athist ideological political influence since the late 1940s. A very long period of the denial of divisions, of sweeping things under the rug. And Syria is surrounded by states that perceive their own national interests in Syria, and they are beginning to interfere and intervene.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, GCC, Qatar, UAE

On Qaradawi, the UAE, Syrians, and Qatari Border Tribes ……..

 

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“All we needed was for someone like Qaradawi to insult us. Qaradawi has insulted everyone, left no one untouched. He has forgotten when he ran away secretly with a girl, committed terrible foolish acts….. Why didn’t he criticize the Qataris when they took away the citizenship of hundreds of people………He belongs to the Muslim Brothers, some of whom have been caught with prostitutes……….”

This Gulf ranting
 was reported by Al-Watan. It reports on this dispute between Shiakh Yusuf al-Qaradawi of Egypt (now belongs to Qatar) and Dhahi Khalfan, chief of police of Dubai in the UAE. Both men love nothing better than being in front of a television camera, or any other camera, preferably with several microphones to opine through.
Qaradawi has criticized the UAE regime for reportedly arresting many Syrian residents who demonstrated against the al-Assad regime. He also griped that he was banned from the UAE. The Dubai official has now threatened to arrest Qaradawi if he sets foot in his country, adding that he will seek to arrest and extradite anyone who insults the UAE.
 
The reference to the Qataris taking away the citizenship of Qatari citizens refers to the coup that the Saudis tried to engineer against the current Emir, around 1998 or thereabouts. The plot failed and a bunch of high-level Saudi security officials were caught in Doha and imprisoned for about ten years. Some Qatari tribal types whose tribes straddle the Qatari-Saudi border were also involved in the plot and the Qatari rulers canceled their citizenship for alleged disloyalty and sent them packing back to Saudi Arabia. Other Gulf countries also have tribal citizens whose tribes straddle the Saudi border.
(I never knew Qaradawi had run away with some girl. I guess even he was young at one time. Hard to believe.)
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Racism, U.S. Congress, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Arab Voters vs. the American Political Class: Deep Mutual Contempt…….

 

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“All I want you to do (Ooh) for me
Is give it to me when you get home (Re, re, re ,re)
Yeah baby (Re, re, re ,re)
Whip it to me (Respect, just a little bit)
When you get home, now (Just a little bit)
R-E-S-P-E-C-T
Find out what it means to me
R-E-S-P-E-C-T……..” Aretha Franklin (Respect)

Alajazeera reports on a poll of Arab “voters”, even in countries where they are not allowed to vote. The results indicate that Arabs mostly trust their armed forces (probably not for winning victories). It also shows that Arabs overwhelmingly consider the United States and Israel the biggest threats to the security of the Arab world. The survey, done by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, shows that 77% of respondents trust their armed forces but that only about half trust their police forces and 57% trust the courts.
About 73% of Arabs consider the United States and Israel the biggest threats to the security of the Arab world but only 5% believe that Iran is a threat.
 

This 5% for Iran is interesting and represents an Arab dichotomy. It shows that in most of the vast Arab world, especially in countries where the mass of the Arab populations are concentrated, Iran is not seen as a threat. On the other hand, media of the Gulf GCC states are full of warnings of an Iranian or Shi’a “threat”. This indicates the degree of success of Saudi and Salafi sectarian propaganda in the tribal societies of the Persian Gulf states. Meanwhile, the bulk of the Arab world, in terms of area and population, has quite different views on this point. This is partly because the non-Gulf Arabs are not as swayed to Saudi propaganda as so many are in the Gulf and partly because of the absence of sectarian and tribal allegiances outside the Gulf region.

I still wonder about the unexpectedly (to me) high negative percentage for the United States; how accurate it is. It is possible that the negative view of America has shot up in recent months due to public statements of U.S. congressmen and senators and other candidates against Muslims and Arabs and the loud war threats being issued almost daily. These war threats are mostly aimed at Americans voters, but they are heard in the Middle East where they give the impression of an aggressive and contemptuous American political class in the mold of the old European imperialists. You can say that there is deep mutual contempt between most Arabs and the American political class. This also means that the views of the average Arab toward the American political class do not differ much from the views of the average American citizen toward the U.S. Congress. It can be summarized in “C-O-N-T-E-M-P-T”, and Aretha Franklin never sang that one.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, GCC, Gulf states, Persian-American Gulf, Saudi Arabia

Honey and Onion: Do Saudi Princes Trust Qataris? Do Qataris Trust Saudi Princes?………….

 

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“A secret meeting was held between members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Riyadh last month to discuss Saudi Arabia’s concerns over the “smuggling of Iranian arms to Hezbollah by sea,” according to an article published on February 15 in the German newspaper, Die Welt. The article stated that “the faltering of Syria, and Iran’s attempt to procure other ways to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah prompted a perturbed Saudi Arabia to hold a secret meeting with other members of the GCC in the capital, Riyadh, on January 18.” GCC members – apart from Qatar, which was excluded from the meeting – also discussed the threats made by senior Iranian officials to close down the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important route linking Gulf countries to the outside world. The newspaper obtained data from “Western intelligence agencies” and mentioned that the oil-rich kingdom refrained from inviting Qatar to the secret congregation since “it is not reliable on issues related to Iran.”………….”

Also sprach al-Akhbar from Beirut.
The mistrust between Qataris and Saudis runs deep, too deep for the usual public platitudes that are mouthed at GCC meetings to cover up. During the late 1990s, Saudi Arabia sponsored a plot to overthrow the current Emir of Qatar. Saudi security officers directly participated, and several of these Saudis were arrested and imprisoned in Doha after the coup failed. They were not released until about two years ago. There were also reports that members of some local tribes that have Saudi roots and possible divided loyalties were implicated in that plot.
The Qataris fancy their own independent foreign policy. They have moved away from the Saudis and cultivated good relations with the Mullahs in Iran, as have the Omanis. They also have hosted the US Central Command, as another way to keep the Saudi danger at bay (real and near Saudi danger not the far away Iranian danger).
The Qataris and Saudis had started a honeymoon of sorts when the Arab uprisings started a year ago. Now this honeymoon may be over. The month of honey (shahr Asal) may becoming the month of onion (shahr bassal). An Arab saying, it sounds much better in Arabic and it rhymes. Onion and homey rhyme, but only in Arabic. Go figure.

Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Politics, Humor, Libya, North Africa

Servant of Two Cities: Colonel Qaddafi on Tribes and Nations and Loyalties and WTF else……..

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In his Green Book, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi had some interesting ideas about the role of the tribe in (Arab) society. Remember, he needed the tribes to be with him. His idea of the primacy of the tribe and its role in society would fit in nicely with those of the ruling oligarchs, and many people, of the Gulf GCC states. I am not sure why he claimed he was any different. He could have declared himself king, like the shaikh of Bahrain and given himself the title of Custodian (or Servant or Janitor) of the Two Unholy Cities (Tripoli and Benghazi). Nobody would have dared rise against him.  He could have established his own gaggle of tame Muftis in Bab al-Azizia to justify whatever he did, like other Arab potentates have done.

Green Book: “In the social sense, the familial society is better than that of the tribe, the tribal society is better than that of the nation, and the society of the nation is better than world society with respect to fellowship, affection, solidarity and benefits. Since the tribe is a large family, it provides its members with much the same material benefits and social advantages that the family provides for its members, for the tribe is a secondary family. What must be emphasized is that, in the context of the tribe, an individual might indulge himself in an uncouth manner, something which he would not do within the family. However, because of the smallness in size of the family, immediate supervision is not exercised, unlike the tribe whose members continually feel that they are under its supervision. In view of these considerations, the tribe forms a behaviour pattern for its members, developing into a social education which is better and more noble than any school education. The tribe is a social school where its members are raised to absorb the high ideals which develop into a behaviour pattern for life. These become automatically rooted as the human being grows, unlike classroom education with its curricula – formally dictated and gradually lost with the growth of the individual. This is so because it is formal and compulsory and because the individual is aware of the fact that it is dictated to him. The tribe is a natural social “umbrella” for social security. By virtue of social tribal traditions, the tribe provides for its members collective protection in the form of fines, revenge and defence; namely, social protection. Blood is the prime factor in the formation of the tribe…..………..”

The colonel didn’t need to take so long to reach his point, wtf that was. He makes some common sense on some of the points. That is one thing about Colonel Qaddafi that was interesting: there are nuggets, nay gems, in the middle of the cacophony. That is what distinguished him from other Arab dictators and absolute kings: one never knew what he would say next. As a result, he was never boring to listen to, unlike all other Arab leaders (post-Nasser), who are always boring because we always know what they are going to say, which is nothing.
Cheers
mhg



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Arab Politics, Libya, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

The Late Qaddafi and the GOP: Arab Referendums and Plebiscites, American Primaries……..

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“Plebiscites are a fraud against democracy. Those who vote “yes” or “no” do not, in fact, express their free will but, rather, are silenced by the modern conception of democracy as they are not allowed to say more than “yes” or “no”. Such a system is oppressive and tyrannical. Those who vote “no” should express their reasons and why they did not say “yes”, and those who say “yes” should verify such agreement and why they did not vote “no”. Both should state their wishes and be able to justify their “yes” or “no” vote…………”

“Not allowed to say more than “yes” or “no”…“ I guess he suggests a resounding “maybe” as a third option.
More seriously, the late Colonel Qaddafi here aims directly at the heart of the Arab phony election system. From North Africa through Egypt to Syria and Ba’athist Iraq and Yemen, they all forced the people to vote in referendums, plebiscites, rather than elections. One candidate only: and a voter was supposed to vote “yes or no”. Suppose a majority voted no? Would they have to start a new vote with a new single candidate?
 
Qaddafi never allowed referendums on his rule (as far as I know), which might somehow make him more honest than his fellow Arab leaders. He was as honest as the Saudi princes, who never pretend that they have elections or freedom or a civil society. Unlike the late Qaddafi, the princes never agonized over it in a Green Book either, which might make them slightly more honest than the colonel.

(I wonder what Qaddafi would have thought of these Republican caucuses and primaries. They are not real elections: they never ‘elect’ anyone for any position or office. Mr. Obama, being a sitting president will not contest elections to be renominated: he will be renominated in a referendum. That is something Colonel Qaddafi would have never condoned).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, GCC, Humor, Jordan, North Africa

Moroccans are from Mars, the GCC from Venus? Democracy and Humor………..

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“Scientists have confirmed that a rocky meteor that broke apart in the atmosphere and crashed last July came from Mars. The space-faring stones, perhaps blasted free of the Red Planet by an ancient planetary collision, are the first documented Martian debris to fall to Earth in 50 years. The rare meteorites have been scooped from the African sands by collectors and dealers, who are selling them for thousands of dollars. The Martian meteor’s fiery fall through Earth’s atmosphere last year was seen by Moroccan nomads and military personnel………”

That may explain why the Saudi princes are backtracking on their decision to have Morocco join the Gulf GCC. Martians against Venusians, it would never work out. Moroccans are inching closer to a constitutional monarchy, and that is something the Saudis sent their tanks into Bahrain to prevent last year (and still at it this year). I recall they also listed Jordan as a candidate for membership. They probably dropped that for ‘sense of humor’ reasons: Jordanians are supposedly allegedly reputedly reportedly credibly even less humorous than most of the Gulf potentates, possibly less humorous than Adolf Hitler, so why bother?
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Europe, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

On Israelis, Turks, Kurdish Rebels, Iranians, and Arab Oligarchs without Vision…………..

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“According to reports by Turkish intelligence agencies, Heron unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operated by Israel that have been observed in Hatay and Adana provinces in recent months spied for the terrorist Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK). Turkish intelligence agencies prepared a report after the detection of two Israeli Herons in Hatay and Adana roughly two months ago, claiming that the Herons are collecting intelligence on Turkish military units in order to aid PKK operations in those regions. The report asserts that the PKK’s training camps in northern Syria, near Turkey’s Hatay border “where Turkish military border posts are relatively weak” were established in those locations based on intelligence collected by the UAVs. The report also claims that Kenan Yıldızbakan, a PKK member who commanded an assault against a Turkish naval base in İskenderun in 2010, has made repeated trips into Israeli territory, reinforcing suspicions of a possible link between Israeli and the PKK………….”

This was bound to happen. Once the Turks realized how racist the European Union feels toward them and their application for membership. Once they realized that they are the last on the list of countries that would be admitted, if they are ever admitted. Once the Turks realized that their usefulness to the Europeans as an anti-Soviet base and as a source of scarce labor has expired. Once they realized that they do need need Europe as much as they had thought. They turned their attention back to the Middle East, which includes Israel, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

The Turks are in Syria now, more or less, possibly in rivalry with Iran for influence over Damascus now that the Arab leaders are helpless and have no independent vision for dealing with the situation. So far the only Arab vision seems to be pushing for the West to “liberate” Syria from its regime, just as the West “liberated” Iraq and Libya. The Turks are also in Iraq, possibly seen by some Arabs as their last hope to limit Iranian influence, at least in the north and west of Iraq. Odd, a new Turkish-Iranian rivalry over Iraq, just like the old Ottoman-Persian rivalry over Iraq.

All that because the stagnant Arab oligarchs, mainly the Saudis, decided to give up on Iraq because they did not like the way Iraqis chose their government (or maybe because the Iraqis actually had some choice, no matter how imperfect).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Politics, Libya, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Congress

The Late Qaddafi on Arab Parliaments and 112th U.S. Congress………..

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“Parliament is a misrepresentation of the people, and parliamentary systems are a false solution to the problem of democracy. A parliament is originally founded to represent the people, but this in itself is undemocratic as democracy means the authority of the people and not an authority acting on their behalf. The mere existence of a parliament means the absence of the people. True democracy exists only through the direct participation of the people, and not through the activity of their representatives. Parliaments have been a legal barrier between the people and the exercise of authority, excluding the masses from meaningful politics and monopolizing sovereignty in their place. People are left with only a facade of democracy, manifested in long queues to cast their election ballots. To lay bare the character of parliaments, one has to examine their origin. They are either elected from constituencies, a party, or a coalition of parties, or are appointed. But all of these procedures are undemocratic, for dividing the population into constituencies means that one member of parliament represents thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of people, depending on the size of the population. It also means that a member keeps few popular organizational links with the electors since he, like other members, is considered a representative of the whole people. This is what the prevailing traditional democracy requires. The masses are completely isolated from the representative and he, in turn, is totally removed from them………..”

Also sprach the late colonel Mu’ammar Qaddafi in his Green Book. For a moment I thought Colonel Qaddafi was referring to the 112th United States Congress. Amid all the gibberish, there are some possible nuggets in there. Oddly, though, his assertion that: “Parliament is a misrepresentation of the people, and parliamentary systems are a false solution to the problem of democracy….” is not uncommon in some Arab states, especially among the ruling oligarchs.
No doubt his Salafi foes strongly agree with his disdain for electoral democracy. No doubt his other foes, the top Saudi princes, believe in what Qaddafi said in the excerpted quote. In fact some of them have said exactly the very same thing in the past, as have columnists in their semi-official media. Other Arab leaders also believe what the colonel said, otherwise they wouldn’t go out of their way to either prevent the election of a parliament or subvert it to a rubber-stamp assembly.
They all try to get the parliaments, whenever they exist, closer to the people either by appointing members directly by the rulers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, most of Bahrain’s) or by helping along in deciding who gets elected. Maybe the late Colonel Qaddafi was, after all, speaking for the Arab League.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab League, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, NATO, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Shaikh of Qatar and the Liberation of Syria: about a Piss-Up in a Brewery….………..

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Media report that the Emir of Qatar has called for an Arab force to intervene in Syria. Arab forces do not have a good history of intervention in other Arab states, unless they are led by a Western general (or colonel or major). Remember, Europeans (T.E. Lawrence and others higher above him) actually led the “temporary” liberation of Jerusalem and Damascus in WWI. Commanders of regular Arab armies, like Arab leaders in general, can’t organize the proverbial-American ‘piss-up in a brewery’ as far as war is concerned. What they can organize is repression of their peoples, and occasionally of other Arab peoples (as the Saudi princes are doing in Bahrain). If Desert Storm were Arab-led (as some Saudi regime journalists occasionally try to claim), Iraqi Ba’athist forces would still be sitting in Khafji, and most likely beyond.

No, an Arab force in Syria would have as much success as the Arab League observers have had. Not only will both the Syrian regime and the ‘opposition’ run rings around them: it would also be a bloody fiasco. As one example: the Saudi military, armed with the best American weapons that petro-money can buy, could not subdue a small group of Yemeni clans (the Huthis) armed with primitive guns just a couple of years ago. They had to leave in defeat. Imagine what the well-armed Syrians can do to these same forces, led by the same inept princes.

I suspect that some of the Arab oligarchs of the Gulf look toward an eventual Western intervention and “liberation” of Syria. Just as the West liberated Iraq and Libya. That is probably their goal, something they have in common with many leaders of the fractured Syrian ‘opposition’. The people who excoriated the West for ‘liberating’ Iraq, after helping it ‘liberate’ Iraq, now want more of the same. Assuming they will end up in control, a tough thing.
Cheers
mhg


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