Category Archives: Arab Politics

Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Saudi Arabia

The Saudi Regime Dodged a Bullet: Nasser’s Missed Great Chance…………

 

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                                             Neck of the woods

“In 1958 he wrote a proposed constitution for Saudi Arabia which would have created a constitutional monarchy and expanded civil rights. He began to assemble an elected advisory committee, but his ideas were rejected by the king, and religious leaders in Saudi Arabia issued a fatwa declaring his constitution to be contrary to Islamic law. In 1961 the kingdom revoked his passport and attempted to silence him, but he expatriated to Egypt and declared himself a socialist. There, influenced by Gamal Abdel Nasser, Talal continued to push for reform and criticise the leadership of the Kingdom. In 1964 Talal agreed to temper his criticisms in exchange for permission to reenter Saudi Arabia. He is now a successful businessman and prominent philanthropist. Though a senior member of Al Saud, his past political forays may have diluted any hopes of a future claim for the throne, though he denies it. Prince Talal resumed his push for reform in Saudi Arabia in September 2007, when he announced his desire to form a political party (illegal in Saudi Arabia) to advance his goal of liberalizing the country……………..”

The Egyptian media in the Nasserist era called them the “free princes”, a name similar to the Free Officers who overthrew the Egyptian monarchy in July of 1952. Talal and his supporters escaped to Egyptian exile for a few years, under the protection of Gamal Abdel Nasser. Of all the Arab regimes of the 1950s, the Saudi regime was the least endangered by the Nasserist tide. The secret was in the ‘people’: the Saudi people at that time were easily among the least educated and least open Arabs (possibly less than Oman or Yemen but it was a toss-up). They were also shackled then, as they are now, by the ideology of the Wahhabi sect which warns that disobedience to the ruler, no matter how corrupt he is, is a sacrilege and would send you to the “other” hell beyond the current Wahhabi hell. Maybe Nasser got too busy and did not try hard enough to overthrow the al-Saud dynasty. His involvement in Syria and Yemen probably distracted him. That was a pity: overthrowing the Saudi clan would certainly have been Nasser’s greatest gift to Arabs and Muslims.

As it happened, the plots and counter-plots continued in the House of Saud. In 1964 crown Prince Faisal plotted and succeeded in overthrowing his brother King Saud, who also went on to spend some time in Egyptian exile. The story does not end there: in 1975 King Faisal himself was shot and killed by one of his nephews. That nephew wanted to avenge the death of his father who had been killed during a previous uprising against the al-Saud regime. You can bet the farm that there are many plots and counter-plots these days among the princes of the ruling regime. There are fights over turf, eventual power, and money that rightfully belongs to the people.
Talal bin Abdelaziz is still a little bit of a rebel among the tight al-Saud princes. That is partly because he knows he has been passed for top jobs like Minister of Defense or Interior and that he has no chance of ever becoming crown prince or king. Yet being a prince, he is not doing too shabbily, nor is his son al-Waleed. With these people, liberalism goes only so far, they can mouth rhetoric about openness and moderation but they are as corrupt as the rest of them, and as despotic.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Middle East Women, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Election Debates, Wild Women Drivers, the Mufti and a Catholic Riyal…….

 

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Egypt held its first ever presidential debate this week. I watched part of it on the internet. Many Arabs watched, fascinated by this very first election debate in any Arab state. The excitement was so widespread that many Saudis wished they could have their leaders debate before they take whatever office they inherit.
The so-called “liberal” wing of the al-Saud dynasty were also excited. So-called “liberal” because they think that eventually women should be able to drive cars, as soon as the king and the mufti agree that: (a) they have enough brains to handle it (I know women in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf region have more or better brains than men: that is why university requirements are much lower for men), and (b) that they have enough sense not to have intercourse with the first driver who blows his horn at them on the road, they all hasten to add.
Meanwhile it is possible that the princes are discussing borrowing the Egyptian experience by having them debate each other to decide who gets what job (king, first prime minister, second prime minister, minister of defense, interior, etc etc). The idea is that the princes would debate each other behind closed doors, that ordinary mortal folks will not get to watch their betters vie for the jobs they were born to get. If no one is voted to have won a debate, rival princes being rival princes, they would flip a riyal coin (head or tail) to decide the winner. The Mufti (Shaikh Al Al Shaikh) would flip the coin according to Wahhabi tradition, just to make it all legit and kosher.

(The Mufti Al probably hasn’t a clue as to the infidel origins of the Riyal. He probably doesn’t know that the “Riyal”, as well as the “Rial” come from the Spanish “Real” meaning “Royal”. He probably rather not know that the coin of the Wahhabi realm bears a Catholic name, that it refers to one or two of their Most Catholic Majesties of Spain (could even be Fernando y Ysabel).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Media, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Iran

Power and Risks of the Political Cartoon: Humorless Iranians, Humorless Arab Despots……

 

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“Fish and chips, sandpaper lips and a rainy pavement.
Soho lights, another night thinking of you.
Black cat, sat on a wall, winks at me darkly.
Suggesting ways and means that I might win a smile,
as you leave the place where you work until 12.30
and the policemen nods as you pass along his beat.
Sweaty feet, troubled brow we’re all in the same game, lady.
Life’s no bowl of cherries it’s a black and white strip cartoon…….” Jethro Tull

“An Iranian cartoonist has been sentenced to be 25 lashes for a caricature of a local MP, the semi-official Ilna news agency has reported. Ahmad Lotfi Ashtiani, MP for Arak, took offence to a cartoon published in Nameye Amir, a city newspaper in Arak. The cartoonist, Mahmoud Shokraye, depicted Ashtiani in a football stadium, dressed as a footballer, with a congratulatory letter in one hand and his foot resting on the ball. Iranian politicians, including Ashtiani, have been recently criticised for interferring in the country’s sports………. Shokraye was subsequently sued by the MP for having insulted him. A court in Markazi province, of which Arak is the capital, sentenced the cartoonist to 25 lashes – an unprecedented punishment for an Iranian cartoonist……………”

Cartoons are the cleverest way to needle Arab (and Iranian) rulers and “almost” live to tell the tale. But they have their risks: you never see a cartoon of the Saudi king or princes anywhere inside Saudi Arabia, and you never see a cartoon of the most senior Iranian clerics anywhere inside Iran (Ahmadinejad is neither a senior cleric nor a prince). Some of the more audacious artists have paid with their lives, others have been attacked, imprisoned, and maimed.
For years the great Palestinian cartoonist Naji al-Ali needled the Fatah leadership of Yassir Arafat (as well as Israel) from the relative safety of Kuwait. He created the character of ‘Hindhala. The PLO reportedly applied pressure for him to be deported from Kuwait in the 1980s. Within a short time from his arrival in a second exile in London he was shot in the face and killed. Openly, some Arab media, as hypocritical then as now, claimed the Mossad had killed him. Everybody I asked knew that he was killed by Fatah operatives on order of Arafat. Then there was Syrian Ali Farzat who was attacked last year and nearly crippled most likely by thugs affiliated with the Syrian regime. No doubt there are many others I am not aware of. There is a clever Brazilian cartoonist (Carlos Latuff) whom the Bahrain rulers (and the Saudi security) would love to get their hands on. I doubt Carlos will be visiting Manama or Riyadh anytime soon. (Don’t even think about it: if they let you in that means they have a trumped up charge ready, like drugs or worse. Remember Egyptian lawyer Ahmed Gizawy. Remember Labanese TV magician Ali Sabat who is on Saudi death row for “sorcery”).
Back to Iran: twenty five lashes for a civil case and not a criminal case, and for a mere lowly politician, an MP! I suspect this sentence is very likely against some article of their own constitution (as are other travesties). I wonder what he would get if he had depicted someone higher, much higher and I mean much higher, than that MP? I am not talking about Ahmadinejad.
Cheers
mhg


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Al-Qaeda, Arab Politics, Arabian Peninsula, GCC

A Gulf GCC Dilemma: Tribes without Flags……..

    

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I was intrigued by a tweet from a Saudi demanding “Freedom for Hamza. If it weren’t for racism he’d be at home now”. It was of course about Saudi journalist Hamza Kashghari who was arrested in Malaysia through Interpol and sent to Saudi Arabia to face death by beheading based on a sick Salafi definition of “blasphemy”.
It took me a few seconds to realize what they meant by “racism”. It has to do with tribes, they meant “tribalism“. In our Gulf GCC states, the tribe is the most important thing to many people, the only true loyalty of many is to the tribe. The tweeter meant that if Hamza belonged to one of the large Saudi tribes, he would be out. He is not of a tribal background, as his name clearly indicates, hence he has no tribal advocates.
This is a phenomenon in our Gulf states where some people profess loyalty to country but they are practicing deceit (tribal taqiya) because they have shown that their true loyalty is to the tribe. In one Gulf state, in my own hometown, tribal members stormed and trashed a television station last February because someone criticized the tribe in an interview. Another tribe also attacked and ransacked a television studio because they did not like what someone said about their tribal leader last month. One tribe sent hundreds, maybe thousands, out to the street when members were arrested. Tribal members spring each other out of prison and there are cases where journalists were shot for ‘disrespecting” a tribe.
Tribalism also explains why next door in Saudi Arabia they have a system of soft rehabilitation for suspected al-Qaeda terrorists, but only for tribal terrorists. This means it does not apply to others like Hamza Kashghari or to Shia suspects because they are not tribal. They have no tribe advocating for them.
This tribal system is all over the Gulf GCC states and it is like a disease that eats the social and political fabric. The ruling potentates usually like it because they used to believe that tribes were more loyal than city people. That is not always true, although it may be true in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain for specific reasons. The Qatari ruler had serious troubles with some disloyal tribe that backed a Saudi plot to overthrow him during the 1990s.
In the end tribal people are mainly loyal to their tribes. The tribes, on their part, are often loyal to more than one ruling dynasty, often depending on who pays more. Yet several tribes have their main branches inside Saudi Arabia, hence their deeper loyalties may be to the Saudi princes rather than the other potentates. This can happen in one or two other GCC states that host large cross-border tribes.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Economics, North Africa, Salafi, Tunisia

Fundamentalists of North Africa on the Rise………….

    

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“Yesterday, the Islamist party Ennahda declared on national evening television that it would keep intact Article 1 of the 1959 Tunisian Constitution. Article 1 of Tunisia’s first constitution explicitly states that Tunisia is a free, sovereign, and independent state, whose “religion is Islam, language is Arabic, and regime is republic.”………. This decision came in a very delicate political context, as an ongoing debate over the place of religion in post-revolutionary Tunisian society and government continues to evolve. The past two weeks alone have seen several demonstrations, some calling for the implementation of Shariaa, law based on the Koran and other Muslim holy writings, in the constitution, and others calling for a civil state……………”

The more ‘moderate’ Tunisian Islamists of Ennahda have decided to keep their promise and not try and transform the country into a theocracy. Not yet. Media reports indicate that a few thousand, no doubt mostly Salafis, have demonstrated for a full application of the Shari’a. That would have transformed Tunisia into a Saudi-style Salafi regime. In that case, Tunisia would be transformed into the Democratic People’s Salafi Republic of Tunisia, just as the Arabian Peninsula is now the Democratic People’s Salafi Kingdom of Arabia. That would have been a disaster for the country, given the strong secular streak among many of its people, and given the heavy economic reliance on tourism, and given the proximity to Europe.
 
Even some of the Gulf GCC countries that apply strict Islamic rules at home would not want that to happen in Tunisia, for two reasons: (1) They have invested heavily in the Tunisian tourist industry (hotels, resorts, etc), and (2) Where else would the potentates go for their long peaceful (and I might add ‘fun-filled’) holidays? You never read about any Saudi princes and other Gulf potentate vacationing in Afghanistan, do you? Not even during the rule of the Taliban. Come to think of it, you never read of any of these potentates ever vacationing in Saudi Arabia either. Maybe it has to do with the ambiance, or maybe it is that “whatever happens in Tunisia and Morocco stays in Tunisia and Morocco’. Most of it, from what I hear.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Politics, Baghdad Summit, Corruption, Iraq

Baghdad: A Sleepy Arab Summit in an Explosive City……………..

    

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This week, the only interesting news in Baghdad will be unwelcome type: it will most likely come in the form of terrorist bombings by foreign Salafis from across the sisterly Arab borders.
The Arab summit in Baghdad is hardly worthy of its name. Most top Arab leaders are either staying away or haven’t taken office in their own countries yet. Others like Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain are still trying to put down popular uprisings. In fact most Arab summits in recent decades have been frustrating affairs. The only redeeming value used to be the entertainment provided by the predictably unpredictable speeches of the late Mu’ammar Qaddafi and occasional reactions to them. With Qaddafi gone, Arab summits will now probably become as boring as GCC summits (can’t get more boring than that now that the Brezhnev Politbureau is gone). I hope I am wrong, but early signs are not encouraging.
This editor of Asharq Alawsat
 (Saudi semi-official daily) ties the success of the summit with internal Iraqi politics, with how the al-Maliki government deals with pro-Saudi elements inside Iraq. This is not to say that al-Maliki is right: nobody in Iraq is right these days and corruption is as rife there as in Saudi Arabia, except it is not as organized and with less decorum. Besides, the new Iraqi potentates had been in exile for years and need to make up or lost time: that may explain the quick spread of corruption and at different strata of society. I imagine spending decades in exile in Tehran or Damascus wasn’t much fun (these cities are not at the top of my list even for someone who is not in exile).
Under the Baath regime corruption was confined to Saddam Hussein’s family and friends and upper party leaders. Sort like it is in Saudi Arabia now where major corruption is confined to princes and potentates and their retainers and agents. The new Iraqi corruption is more in the open and more “egalitarian”, it has seeped to the lower levels of society. In Reagan-esque terms; it has trickled down to the middle classes. What is dangerous about that is that it is becoming a sort of entitlement for a wider swath of society and harder to get rid of.
As for corruption at the top: that can be stopped by an order from the king or dictator. Unless he is overthrown first.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab League, Arab Politics, Baghdad Summit, Iraq, Salafi, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy

Imperiled Hegemony: the Baghdad Summit and Saudi Arabia’s Iraqi Dilemma……….

    

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“Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, an ethnic Kurd and the chief architect of the Baghdad summit, beamed Monday as he counted down the hours to what he bills as a historic moment: Iraq reclaiming its place in the Arab world after years of isolation during the U.S.-led military occupation and its spinoff sectarian war. For the past several summits, Zebari weathered the snubs and slights of Arab rulers, who openly questioned the legitimacy and sovereignty of the Iraqi government because it’s dominated by Iranian-backed Shiite Muslims and Kurds, and was formed in the shadow of Western occupiers. Now, however, the U.S. military is gone, and many of those skeptical Arab leaders have either been overthrown or forced into humbling reforms after the Arab Spring uprisings of last year. With the Arab League so heavily invested in the outcomes of revolts in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Tunisia and — most urgently — Syria, member countries are expected to use the conference to discuss their limited options for containing the regional crises now spilling across borders………”

Iraq has always been a dilemma for the al-Saud, an unwelcome presence in the Arab fold. The Baathist regime under Saddam Hussein flirted with the Saudis for eight years as it fended off Iranian counterattacks. The Saudis and the GCC financed and armed Saddam’s regime for eight years of war, as did the West. Yet the Saudis have always been wary of Iraq since before the Republic was established in 1958, actually since long before then. There are several reasons why the al-Saud do not welcome return of Iraq to the Arab fold:


  • Iraq is (potentially) a powerful rival for regional political dominance between the Jordan River and the Iranian border and southward. It is the most populous and potentially richest country in the Arab east. The total Saudi population is less than one half that of Iraq (taking into account that more than one third of the Saudi population are temporary foreign laborers and housemaids). For almost thirty years Iraq was preoccupied with Baathist-provoked wars. The Saudis have had unrivaled domination of the lower tier of the eastern Arab world during that time. That period might also be coming to an end, if the Iraqis can liquidate their Arab al-Qaeda terrorist guests and reconcile with each other politically. Reports indicate that Salafi terrorists are still infiltrating into Iraq from the Gulf GCC states and possibly Jordan, intent on murder. The Salafi terrorists’ assigned role is partly to keep Iraq off balance and too preoccupied with internal security to be involved in the region.
  • Iraq’s petroleum sector has been neglected for thirty years. It is beginning to revive, but will take some time to reach its potential. Iraqi reports now claim they are the second largest producers, overtaking Iran. Other reports also indicate that Iraqi reserves may have exceeded what Iran has. There is some speculation that eventually Iraqi reserves may exceed those of Saudi Arabia. Remember, Saudi output has been going full blast at 8-11 mb/d for decades, while Iraqi and Iranian output (and exploration) were hampered by wars and Western economic blockades. It is hard to give up the position of the biggest fish in the smaller Gulf pond. 
  • Politically the al-Saud never liked Iraq, but they like that country much less now that it has a Shi’a-dominated government. The Shi’a religious monuments and shrines in southern (and other parts of) Iraq have been targets of Saudi Wahhabi raiders since Ottoman days. The Wahhabi rulers of the Saudi Salafi theocracy may have distrusted and hated the previous Baathist rulers of Iraq, but they have nothing but ill will for the new ruling classes of Iraq. They, and some other GCC Gulf potentates, have behaved as if an entitlement was taken away from them, the entitlement that a Sunni Arab elite should continue to rule over 80+% of the rest of Iraqis (mainly Shi’a Arabs and Kurds and Turkmans). In other word, they would like Iraq to be like Bahrain.


The Saudis have don’t yet have a full ambassador in Baghdad, although last year they accredited their Amman ambassador to also cover Iraq. He will lead the Saudi delegation instead of the king or one of the princes. Syria also got the same treatment whey it hosted the Arab summit three or so years ago. The Arab League is a toothless mechanism, has been so since 1970. Its only relevance is when Western powers dust it off and show that the Arab League supports their actions in the MENA region (as in Libya, and almost in Syria).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Iran, Syria, Terrorism, US Foreign Policy, Weapons deals, Yemen

Iran in Yemen and Syria: Quds Force vs. Qat Force, Plot in DC with Mexicans and Islamic Heritage Revival Society……

 

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““Iran is really trying to play a big role in Yemen now,” the Yemeni official said from his office in Sana, the country’s capital. American officials say the Iranian aid to Yemen — a relatively small but steady stream of automatic rifles, grenade launchers, bomb-making material and several million dollars in cash — mirrors the kind of weapons and training the Quds Force is providing the embattled government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. It also reflects a broader campaign that includes what American officials say was a failed plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States in October, and what appears to have been a coordinated effort by Iran to attack Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia earlier this year. Iran has denied any role in the attacks. “They’re fighting basically a shadow war every day,” Gen. James N. Mattis, the head of the military’s Central Command, told a Senate hearing last week. “They are working earnestly to keep Assad in power,” he said, explaining that in addition to arms and scores of Quds Force trainers and Iranian intelligence agents, Iran is providing the Syrian security services with electronic eavesdropping equipment “to try and pick up where the opposition networks are.”………..”

Fine and dandy, the mullahs are probably supplying some arms to a Yemeni faction. Yet I don’t buy the bit about supplying weapons to Syria. Not because they would not be happy to keep Bashar al-Assad in power; no doubt the Iranians are doing their best to keep the Baath regime in control. There is no need for Iranian arms. The Russians have a naval base in Syria, and the Black Sea is nearby, and the Russians make much better weapons than the Iranians, and the Russians have always supplied Syria and still do. So why would Bashar need mediocre Iranian weapons when he has access to better Russian ones? Ditto for the spying and communications equipment. (Unless there is a money/payment angle). The New York Times needs to make a better case for this.
As for the rehash of the so-called plot to blow Adle al-Jubair the Saudi ambassador to smithereens in an overpriced but mediocre Georgetown restaurant: I thought we had gone over that one and refuted the allegation. I recall even refuting any involvement of the Mexican drug cartels, drunk Texan used-car dealers named Jack, Colombian FARC rebels, Hezbollah, Society of Islamic Heritage Revival, the Nabati Poets Diwaniya, and Mitt Romney. This just makes no sense. The Saudi ambassador al-Jubair is not an important person, he makes no decisions or policies except when to have lunch or get a haircut. It is all decided by the princes.
As for the ‘Qat‘, it just popped up…….
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Media, Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Syria

About that Arab Water: al-Assad Longevity, Saudi Longevity, Prince Forever……..

 

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Syria’s official Tishreen newspaper has launched an attack against the Saudi clan. It is actually a counterattack, since the Saudis have been attacking the Syrian regime for some time now, especially this past year. Their target is life-long foreign minister Prince Saudi al-Faisal.

For some years, Saudi official and semi-official media and their Gulf surrogates have been attacking the Syrian regime, mostly for being an ally of Iran and aiding Hezbollah. That has shifted in past few months, the vast Saudi media have been attacking the Syrian regime for various things, one of them for being undemocratic and oppressive and repressive. They have also started to use the favorite weapon of the Saudi regime: sectarianism. Nobody in the Arab world, Islamic world, or the whole wide world can use the poison of sectarian divisiveness better than the al-Saud and their huge media and their Salafi surrogates. The Syrians have mostly held their fire, for some odd reasons, maybe hoping for another reconciliation, for future financial reasons. Now, with the regime in deeper trouble, and the Saudi regime calling for Western intervention in Syria, the gloves are off, sort of. Here are excerpts of what Tishreen said today:

“Prince Saud al-Faisal, nicknamed the forever foreign minister has been in office since 1975, like a life sentence. We call it 35 autumns since there is nothing that has to do with a “spring” in his ministry”.

“Now, in the autumn of his years, he has decided for his ministry to ride the wave of Arab Spring, but only in Syria…..”

“Saud al-Faisal has a face that does not inspire trust or safety. His looks are not easy to understand, until he starts talking in heavy Arabic that is not understood until his ministry issues its explanatory statements…” This one is below the royal belt, and childish; worse than some of the stuff I blog here.

“Saud al-Faisal, who lived for years with a sectarian face toward some regional neighbors as well as some regions in Saudi Arabia, has suddenly remembered his Arab nationalism and only in our country. He forgot it when his troops where shooting and killing Saudis in the Eastern Province, he forgot his nationalism when his country sent forces to suppress an uprising calling for justice and freedom in Bahrain……. “

All this is still mild compared to the nasty job Saudi media is doing on Bashar al-Assad. They have their many palace shaikhs issuing fatwas every week sending Bashar al-Assad (and Asma al-Assad) to hell; you’d think the late King Fahd is the doorman, admissions officer, to heaven these days.
 
Also, in fairness: when they talk about longevity in office, the Syrians forget that the late Hafiz al-Assad ruled for nearly thirty years, as long as the Saudi kings. Or that Bashar never had any intention of leaving office voluntarily, just like any Saudi prince. It must be something in the Arab water that makes potentates and bureaucrats and minions cling to power. Till death do them part.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Politics, Arab Revolutions, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria

Year of the Baathists: Iraq and Syria, Nasser and the Kings………….

 

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“On the surface, in fact, the Syrian affair was much milder and less bloody than most Arab revolts. In the past 15 years, the Middle East has been continually shaken like a kaleidoscope, constantly falling into new patterns. There have been two sizable wars and fully two dozen armed uprisings and rebellions………  It was quite clear last week that the latest shake of the kaleidoscope resulted in new patterns and alignments overwhelmingly favorable to Gamal Abdel Nasser. The Syrian revolution was the third in six months by rebels pledged to make common cause with Egypt. Flights of new leaders poured into Cairo for tear-stained embraces with Nasser and nightlong conferences on the future course of that misty concept called Arab unity. Nasser stands at the pinnacle of prestige, if not of power, and the shadow he casts has never been longer. Today, it falls over the entire Arab world from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean………….For the first time in 500 years, the three key Arab states of Egypt, Iraq and Syria have a similar political posture and are on close and friendly terms……….  The monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Jordan—close friends of the West but hated enemies of the Arab nationalists—face the threat of uprisings at the hands of powerful local friends of the man in Cairo…………”


The Iraqi Ba’athists had a taste of power for the first time that year, but it did not last. They were kicked out of the government by their allies, the  Aref brothers who established their own dynasty. The Arefs had been pardoned by leader of the 1958 revolution, Za’eem (General) Abdel Karim Qassim after they had tried to overthrow him. He saved their lives from the executioner, but they went on plotting against him in freedom. He was overthrown by a Ba’athist and Aref alliance that initiated its own bloodbath in Iraq. Aref did not return the favor to Qassim but had him machine-gunned without a trial. Soon he managed to get rid of the Ba’ath, and when he died in a helicopter crash (a favorite way for Iraqi potentates to die) his brother took over until 1968. The second Aref was overthrown by the Ba’athists who killed off almost anybody who could challenge them and they ruled until April 2003.
The Syrian Ba’athists never lost power after March 1963. They had several strongmen who led the Party that ruled Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s father was the last one and the strongest of them, and he arranged for his son to take over when he died. What will happen to Bashar? We shall see: the consensus in the West and among many Arabs was that he was a gonner, but that was last month. The outlook may have changed these past two weeks. The era of the absolute Arab dictator is finished, soon to be followed by the end of the absolute tribal monarch (do you hear me, your majesties?.
Cheers
mhg


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