“On the eve of what is likely to be a nearly complete withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq, one of the great questions is what Mr. Sadr is going to do…..” N YTimes
Iraq has had a way of making American presidents look and sound foolish, mainly because they misread it. George W Bush fell into that trap when he parachuted in front of a huge banner reading “Mission Accomplished”. Little did he know that the bloody party was just beginning in Iraq.
Now there are reports in the media that the United States will keep several thousand troops in Iraq after they all withdraw from Iraq. An Orwellian touch I could not help noticing, although most people are probably still digesting the administration’s last “announced” position, that ALL U.S. forces will leave Iraq next month.
Even the supremely opportunistic Republican candidates were quick to slam the withdrawal plan, even if most, almost all, Iraqis insist on it. Now all GOP candidates have to amend their statements to insist that there is a need for more than, say, 5 thousand troops.
So, Mr. Obama announced that he is keeping his promise to completely withdraw from Iraq, before he decided to break that promise and keep forces in Iraq (I wonder what Senator John Kerry is up to these days). Would be interesting if they will actually remain and if they will remain under the laws of an independent Iraqi state or under a colonial rule that exempts them from Iraqi laws. That should boost the political fortunes of an already politically extremely fortunate Muqtada al-Sadr.
Cheers
mhg
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All posts by Mohammed Haider Ghuloum
Gulf Arms Race: UAE JDAMS Bunker Busters, Bunkers of Sharjah and Fujairah……
“The U.S. government may soon announce plans for a large sale of precision-guided bombs to the United Arab Emirates, a source familiar with the arms sales plans said late on Thursday, as tensions mounted with Iran over its nuclear program. The Pentagon is considering a significant sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions made by Boeing Co, adding to other recent arms deals with the UAE. These include the sale of 500 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles about which U.S. lawmakers were notified in September. The sale of Boeing-built “bunker-buster” bombs and other munitions to UAE, a key Gulf ally, is part of an ongoing U.S. effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran. No comment was immediately available from the Pentagon’s press office or the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees foreign arms sales. Boeing has sold thousands of JDAM bombs to the United States and its allies in recent months as they have replenished their arsenal of the popular precision-guided bombs……….”
The Unit Arab Emirates claims to have almost 1 million citizens (the rest are temporary foreign laborers, housemaids, gardeners, doctors, bankers, mercenaries, etc). There are opinions that the actual number is much less than one million. The absolute oligarchy of the UAE has been in a tough arms race, no not with Iran, but with the rival absolute tribal princes of Saudi Arabia. For several years they were the second biggest importers of weapons in the whole wide wonderful world. Last year the Saudis moved to number one and the Abu Dhabi potentates were threatened with being relegated to number two (no pun intended here). Now they are trying to catch up with the al-Saud in terms of weapons imports, and coincidentally in terms of bribes commissions that the potentates and their retainers receive.
The UAE already has American F-16 fighters that are capable of carrying JDAMS bunker busters. It is not clear why the shaikhs of the UAE want JDAMS bunker busters, and whose bunkers they might want to bust. Nobody is likely to want to attack them, not even the shaikhs of Bahrain. The Iranians most likely are concerned with bigger fish, like the Americans or the Israelis. Besides, who is going to use all these sophisticated weapons? They can keep borrowing personnel from Pakistan, or maybe even train some humorless Jordanians. Or maybe they can train their new mercenary security legion headed by Blackwater veterans and manned by Colombians, Australians, white South Africans and others.
Either way, it is not clear whose bunkers these Abu Dhabi shaikhs want to bust. Hopefully not the bunkers of Sharjah or Fujairah.
Cheers
mhg
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Iran to Sue American Lawmakers, about Alan Dershowitz, 1968…………
“Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi says Tehran will definitely take legal action against the US administration over calls for the assassination of Iranian officials. Salehi told IRNA on Sunday that American statesmen are so brazen that they formally discuss assassinating Iranian military figures in the US House of Representatives and the Senate. He stressed that Tehran would pursue the case through all legal and judicial channels. Salehi said that the US administration’s anti-Iran bids comes as Washington has been leveling baseless accusations against the country alleging that Tehran was involvement in a plot to kill the Saudi envoy to Washington. On October 11, the US Justice Department accused Iran of plotting to assassinate Saudi Arabian Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir with help from a suspected member of a Mexican drug cartel. Tehran says the media hype created by Washington is an attempt to deflect international attention from the anti-corruption and anti-corporatism protests currently rocking the country. ………….”
It is interesting that the Iranian leaders are becoming Americanized in at least one respect: they are becoming trigger happy in matters of lawsuits. For all I know they could also be watching Jersey Shores or Desperate Housewives (I have never watched any episode of either). I wonder if Alan Dershowitz, if he is asked, would refuse to represent the mullahs on principle. Or maybe he would rise to the challenge.
What these Iranian mullahs don’t understand is that violent protests, even strong protests, don’t work in the USA. The 1960s protests (especially the Chicago events which were arguably violence committed by the police) led to the election of Richard Nixon in 1968. That was no doubt the opposite effect of what the protesters wanted (helped along by the not-so-soft racism of Nixon’s Southern Strategy)
Cheers
mhg
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Arab Counterrevolution: Stoking Royal Salafi Fires on the Gulf…………..
“The external opposition continues to fudge its stance on external intervention, and with good reason: the internal opposition rejects it. This is the flaw to the model – for the majority in Syria deeply oppose external intervention, fearing civil conflict. Hence Syrians face a long period of externally mounted insurgency, siege and international attrition. Both sides will pay in blood. But the real danger, as Hannah himself noted, is that the Saudis might “once again fire up the old Sunni jihadist network and point it in the general direction of Shiite Iran”, which puts Syria first in line. In fact, that is exactly what is happening, but the west, as before in Afghanistan, prefers not to notice – so long as the drama plays well to western audiences. As Foreign Affairs reported last month, Saudi and its Gulf allies are firing up the radical Salafists (fundamentalist Sunnis), not only to weaken Iran, but to do what they see is necessary to survive – to disrupt and emasculate the awakenings that threaten absolute monarchism. This is happening in Syria, Libya, Egypt…………..”
It is all part of the Saudi-led GCC-funded Arab Counterrevolution. Its only goal is to maintain the status quo on the Gulf , at any price. Status quo means only one thing: keeping the al-Saud dynasty in power, with absolute unquestionable authority. Before the Arab “Spring”, it was aimed at any change in the broader Arab status quo. At the time they used developments in Iraq, post the invasion they had supported and participated in, to stoke sectarian fires. Even old Hosni Mubarak managed, with Saudi help, to ‘discover’ plots by Shi’as to convert his people and take over Egypt. They exaggerated fears of an Iranian threat with the goal of dividing the somnolent and often tame peoples of the GCC states into Sunni and Shi’a factions. It always works on the Gulf: fearful Sunnis seek the protection of the corrupt ruling dynasties, angry Shi’as become more vocal in their demands, which in turn is used by the palace Salafis to further stoke the fires of division.
Amazing how one ancient doubtful Hadith about absolute loyalty to the (Muslim) ruler is being used by Salafi clerics to counter the Arab revolutions, but only in selective countries.
Cheers
mhg
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Saudi Reshuffling of Bins: Danny Kaye Gone, Custodian of the Pearly Gates…………
BFF
“Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, yesterday issued a royal decree appointing Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Defense, succeeding his brother Crown Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to the post. This came as part of a series of royal decrees issued by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz yesterday, which included the renaming of the “Minister of Defense, Aviation, and General Inspection” as the “Minister of Defense.” A second royal decree announced the appointment of Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as Governor of Riyadh Region at the rank of minister, and the appointment of Prince Mohammed Bin Saad Bin Abdulaziz as his deputy, also at the rank of minister. Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz succeeds the newly appointed Saudi Defense Minister as the Governor of Riyadh. The royal decree which announced the appointment of Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s new Defense Minister also included the announcement of the appointment of Prince Khalid Bin Sultan Bin Abdulaziz as Saudi Deputy Minister of Defense at the rank of minister. A third royal decree issued yesterday announced the appointment of Prince Saud Bin Naif Bin Abdulaziz as Head of the Crown Prince’s Court and Special Adviser to the Crown Prince at the rank of minister. Whilst another royal decree announced the appointment of Prince Fahd Bin Abdullah Bin Mohammed Al Saud as Chairman of the General Commission for Civil Aviation ……………”
Saudi semi-official and official media (the only two kinds available) have gone berserk over the new royal line-up (they have no choice). They started by eulogizing the late Crown Prince Sultan as if he were transferred to a new job, Custodian of the Pearly Gates, way up there. Now Prince Nayef is made to be one of the wisest, greatest, nicest, sweetest, prince that ever lived.
I was especially intrigued by this new appointment: “Prince Saud Bin Naif Bin Abdulaziz as Head of the Crown Prince’s Court and Special Adviser to the Crown Prince “.
(I felt sad about the removal of the title of “Inspector General” from the Defense Minister’s portfolio. It always amused me, evoking memories of the late Danny Kaye, although I never knew wtf he inspected).
Cheers
mhg
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Israeli UN Diplomat Claims to be Wild and Free……
BFF
“Israel’s ambassador to the UN Ron Prosor attended a luncheon for France’s National Front leader Marine Le Pen “by accident,” his spokeswoman told AFP on Thursday. Prosor attended the event in honor of the far-right leader at the United Nations in New York. It was Le Pen’s first meeting with an Israeli official. Prosor’s spokeswoman Karean Peretz told AFP that the ambassador’s attendance was the result of a misunderstanding. She did not elaborate. The French newspaper Le Monde reported that Prosor told reporters before entering the event: “I am a free man.”……..”
And I say to all that: hey, you can take them whenever and wherever you can get them. It is just one right-winger meeting another. I mean it is not like he dined with the daughter of Goebbels or Goering. It only means that Mr. Prosor is wild and free, just like the ass of the proverbial nun in the famous joke.
Cheers
mhg
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An Iranian Mystery, a Western Dilemma…….
BFF
“And we keep forgetting the inconvenient fact that, even if the regime changed, the nuclear program — which is popular as an expression of Iranian nationalism and power — will continue. The leaders of the Green movement strongly support that program and have repeatedly criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for making too-generous offers to the West. (All Iranian officials repeat constantly that they would never develop nuclear weapons. And in a recent interview with Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he had never “seen a shred of evidence that Iran has been weaponizing, in terms of building nuclear-weapons facilities and using enriched materials.”…………“
This is another dilemma that the West will continue to face from Iran, something I and a few others have written about. What they don’t seem to understand is that no matter who is in power in Tehran, be it the mullahs, the Mujahideen Khalq, the Greens, the Communists, or the American Tea Party, they all want to keep the nuclear program going. They all claim they have no intention of developing nuclear weapons, but they know that an independent nuclear program, of the sort the Israelis and the Pakistanis have, is a matter of national pride. Regime change in Iran is desirable by the West and very likely by many Iranians, but that does not mean an acceptance of the loss of independent decision-making.
Cheers
mhg
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Is Condi Rice as Smart as Henry Kissinger? Iraq, Iran, and Indochina……………
“Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday that it’s time for the United States to confront Iran, and that it should never take the military option off the table, in an ABC interview with Christiane Amanpour. “I think it’s time to confront the Iranian regime because It’s the poster child for state sponsorship of terrorism, it’s trying to get a nuclear weapon, it’s repressed its own people. The regime has absolutely no legitimacy left. We should be doing everything we can to bring it down and never take military force off the table,” she said.
In addition to keeping the military option open, Rice pointed to “even tougher sanctions” as a means of confronting the Islamic Republic…………Rice also commented on plans for the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq this year, noting that, “This is one of the downsides of having our forces out of Iraq, because we can confront the Iranians in Iraq.” ………….”
I am beginning to think that Condi Rice is almost as smart as Henry Kissinger, almost. Kissinger had a brilliant solution for the United States to stop losing the Vietnam War: escalate into Cambodia and Laos. Brilliant move: within four years the Communists were in power in South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.
So Rice wanted the Obama administration to keep forces in Iraq to “confront Iran”. I assume she doesn’t mean having a few thousand American boys and girls sitting targets in a hostile environment. Maybe she would also agree to leave Palo Alto and go to Iraq to advice the troops she wants to remain in harm’s way. maybe Messrs Romney and Gingrich and Perry and some of the airwaves gasbag warriors will volunteer go go with her.
Cheers
mhg
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Egypt Under Military Junta Rule: Mubarak’s Revenge……..
BFF
“Egypt’s ruling military council is silencing critics while polishing its image amid increasing signs that it is plotting to stay in power behind the scenes even after a new parliament is in place early next year. Activists and politicians are worried that the military, the country’s most revered institution before the revolution that overthrew President Hosni Mubarak in February, refuses to have its authority and financial interests answerable to an emerging democracy. Concerns were heightened this week when the military-backed interim government announced parameters for writing Egypt’s new constitution. The proposals allow the generals to appoint 80% of the constitutional committee. They also state that the defense budget would be kept secret and the military would be the “guardian” of the constitution, raising the possibility of intervention in legislative and presidential affairs……….”
Egypt will probably have an elected parliament and president. But the military will remain the most powerful institution in the country: the military, not the parliament, not the president, not even the lousy Mubarak-appointed and Saudi-oriented Shaikh of al-Azhar. Like Turkey of old, like some Latin American nations of the past, the military junta is here to stay. It will not rule directly, its Arab and Western friends must have told the generals that is not a good idea. It will rule by pulling the strings, by drawing “red lines”: Arab potentates are fond of “red lines” that people should not cross. Like I said once before here, they will have their own Supreme Ayatollah Tantawi.
That is Mubarak’s revenge against the Egyptian people, if they accept it.
Cheers
mhg
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New IAEA Iran Nuclear Report and another “Slam Dunk”………
“This week, the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to release its latest report on Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. If the leaks are to be believed, that report will accuse Iran of constructing a steel tank at the Parchin military complex for testing explosives associated with atomic weapons design. The allegation is hardly new. Since 2004, there have been suspicions of work at Parchin related to weapons design and in May this year the agency listed a series of research projects it suggested could not make sense unless related to weapons research. If the report is significant, it is because with each new IAEA report on Iran comes a familiar diplomatic ritual of threatened new sanctions from the US and its allies and reports of threatened military strikes from Israel. If there is a difference this time, it is in the strong impression, after years of veiled threats from Israel, that it will act alone if necessary to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, that the country’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and his closest allies in a cabinet split on the issue would like to launch a pre-emptive military strike, a view opposed by other senior figures in Israel’s security establishment…………..”
So the IAEA chief flies to Washington, media report, but not to Tehran, and soon after leaks start springing about Iran moving closer to a nuclear weapon, or is it just a nuclear capability. Maybe it is so, but it is so reminiscent of the preparations for the 2003 Iraq war and all the talk and leaks and “intelligence” about WMD, isn’t it? That one even tricked me, not that I needed much convincing of the need to get rid of Saddam Hussein and his vile Ba’ath Party rule.
So the Iranians, it is now leaked, may have constructed a steel tank at the Parchin military complex for testing explosives “associated” with atomic weapons design. And what are the sources of all this? Reports say the sources are “Western” intelligence. So some Western intelligence services supply the IAEA with new “intelligence” about Iran’s nuclear intentions, the IAEA dutifully includes it in its report, then the same Western governments scream that the IAEA has provided proof.
It is possible that the unnamed “Western” intelligence, be it the CIA, Mossad, or the Germans are correct this time. It is also possible that they are not. Remember: according to “Western” intelligence, the Iranians were supposed to have developed a nuclear bomb some six or seven years ago. The same folks who brought us “slam dunk” (no not the late Chick Hearn of the L.A. Lakers) and the Iraq invasion in 2003. These guys would never win an NBA title with the kind of “slam dunking” they are capable of.
Cheers
mhg
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