BFF   

“On the surface, in fact, the Syrian affair was much milder and less bloody than most Arab revolts. In the past 15 years, the Middle East has been continually shaken like a kaleidoscope, constantly falling into new patterns. There have been two sizable wars and fully two dozen armed uprisings and rebellions………  It was quite clear last week that the latest shake of the kaleidoscope resulted in new patterns and alignments overwhelmingly favorable to Gamal Abdel Nasser. The Syrian revolution was the third in six months by rebels pledged to make common cause with Egypt. Flights of new leaders poured into Cairo for tear-stained embraces with Nasser and nightlong conferences on the future course of that misty concept called Arab unity. Nasser stands at the pinnacle of prestige, if not of power, and the shadow he casts has never been longer. Today, it falls over the entire Arab world from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean………….For the first time in 500 years, the three key Arab states of Egypt, Iraq and Syria have a similar political posture and are on close and friendly terms……….  The monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Jordan—close friends of the West but hated enemies of the Arab nationalists—face the threat of uprisings at the hands of powerful local friends of the man in Cairo…………”


The Iraqi Ba’athists had a taste of power for the first time that year, but it did not last. They were kicked out of the government by their allies, the  Aref brothers who established their own dynasty. The Arefs had been pardoned by leader of the 1958 revolution, Za’eem (General) Abdel Karim Qassim after they had tried to overthrow him. He saved their lives from the executioner, but they went on plotting against him in freedom. He was overthrown by a Ba’athist and Aref alliance that initiated its own bloodbath in Iraq. Aref did not return the favor to Qassim but had him machine-gunned without a trial. Soon he managed to get rid of the Ba’ath, and when he died in a helicopter crash (a favorite way for Iraqi potentates to die) his brother took over until 1968. The second Aref was overthrown by the Ba’athists who killed off almost anybody who could challenge them and they ruled until April 2003.
The Syrian Ba’athists never lost power after March 1963. They had several strongmen who led the Party that ruled Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s father was the last one and the strongest of them, and he arranged for his son to take over when he died. What will happen to Bashar? We shall see: the consensus in the West and among many Arabs was that he was a gonner, but that was last month. The outlook may have changed these past two weeks. The era of the absolute Arab dictator is finished, soon to be followed by the end of the absolute tribal monarch (do you hear me, your majesties?.
Cheers
mhg


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