Rattlesnake Ridge      

 
      BFF
“In fact, it is not implausible that post-Mubarak governments will advocate causes and goals that undermine Saudi Arabia’s interests. For instance, a democratising Egypt could seek to promote freedom and liberty in the region, which is undoubtedly antithetical to Saudi interests. And down the road, a more nationalistic Egypt very well could try to challenge Saudi Arabia as the vanguard of Sunni dominance in the region. Some of this is conjecture, to be sure. But do not think Saudi rulers are unaware of these possibilities. And here is one more challenge in Saudi-Egyptian relations: Egypt’s revolutionaries and political activists, as well as various Shia and Copts, believe that Saudi Arabia is funding extremist political groups (specifically, the Salafis) so as to undermine the revolution. That is to say, in their eyes, Saudi Arabia is meddling in their country and in bed with, if not actually leading, the counter-revolutionaries. Not surprisingly, there have been protests at the Saudi Embassy in Cairo. Arguably, the more troubling part of this is that the accusations give the Saudis another reason to dislike the revolutionaries ……….”

Last January, an angry King Abdullah famously called the protesting people of Egypt “foreign infiltrators”. Egypt under Mr. Mubarak was a unique animal: a country that normally leads the Arab world was a sidekick for the Saudis for thirty years. That will probably never happen again, unless the Mubarak-appointed Field Marshal Tantawi and his generals keep control. Egypt is too large, has too much history and culture: it automatically poses a challenge to the al-Saud leadership (it always did until Hosni Mubarak took over). It is the same with Iraq: too rich (potentially has more petroleum than Saudi Arabia) with too much history and culture to play second fiddle to the al-Saud (even under someone like Allawi). Even in the so-called “moderate” camp, Egypt poses a challenge for the Saudi regime. In their hearts, the al-Saud would rather have Egypt, and Iraq, away from their sphere of influence around the Gulf and in Jordan.
(I have no doubt that the Saudis are financing the Salafis of Egypt, just as they are financing the Salafi groups and politicians of the Gulf region. These Salafis are their fifth column, their not very sleepy sleeping cells in the Arab states. But that is okay: every regime looks for its own interest).
Cheers
mhg



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