BFF   

No doubt President Assad will not last in Syria, not if the alleged 6,000 killings are true. His father is reported to have killed many more in Hama, but we are not sure how many. Those were days of no internet (not outside the U.S defense establishment) and no cell phones with cameras. The opposition was not as media-savvy and opportunistic as it is now. Besides, most governments, including all Arab governments that now condemn Bashar, colluded with the father in covering up the alleged massacre. The father survived, nay thrived, after Hama because the rest of the world allowed him to.
This is unlikely to happen with Bashar. Not only there are television videos, no doubt some of them are fake or modified for international audiences, but there are other factors. Under Hafiz al-Assad (Arabic for the Lion Keeper) the political atmosphere in the region was quite different. Under Bashar al-Assad (Arabic for Bearer of Good News to the Lion) too many regional and international powers want a piece of Syria. The Iranians and Russians want to keep Assad in power because he is their ally. The Saudis and Gulf potentates want Assad replaced with someone who would be their ally against Iran. The West wants someone in Syria who would kick the Iranians out and switch their support in Lebanon from Hezbollah to the Hariri and the Falange militias. The West, and the Israelis, dream of 1982, when the Lebanese right-wing made an impossible short-lived deal with Israel and Reagan stupidly sent in the Marines, thinking Lebanon was like Grenada. They believed the right-wing Arab propaganda that the Lebanese people welcomed them (most did not, even more would not now).

So, what to do with Syria? The Yemen solution where the “new” president reverted to the true Arab election style by winning 99.8%? Or the Tunisian solution which is more democratic (so far)? Or the Egyptian solution that is not clear yet?
Syria will have to be different if a civil war is to be averted: it will probably have to be a consensus solution that gives everyone something to take home. Nobody loses too much: not sure about the Syrian people. The Iranians and Russians want the regime to remain; they don’t want to lose out. The Saudis want the regime to go and they prefer a new fundamentalist regime that is close to them: the princes can dangle the promise of a lot of money even their own people face tough conditions at home.
No doubt the next regime will be some sort of fundamentalist Islamic concoction that reflects the “current” mood of many, if not all, Syrians. It will be a Sunni regime, which will probably be hostile to both Iran and Israel, at least on paper. Until the Saudi (and maybe the Qatari) oligarchs present them with the political bill for “liberation”.
Well: you live and you learn.
Cheers
mhg


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