Monthly Archives: March 2015

Al-Qaeda, Arabian Peninsula, Caliphate, Yemen

From Arabia Felix to an Arab Prototype……..

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Yemen gets even more complex almost by the day, and who could have thunk it only a few weeks ago? It is now almost a prototype of a failed Arab state, in a similar league with a few others like Somalia and Libya and Syria: 

  • Houthis now control the capital Sanaa and the North: they are strongly aligned against Islah and AQAP (always) .
  • Houthis reportedly aligned with former president Saleh (for now: he still has influence with the army and security forces).
  • Houthis turn against Saleh (maybe soon as they tighten their control of the central state institutions, such as they are).
  • AQAP are against Houthis (always, a Wahhabi-Shi’a conflict, among other issues).
  • Former president General Hadi against Houthis (normal struggle of the provinces against Sanaa, in addition to the influence of Hadi-backers among Saudi and Gulf princes).
  • Houthis against all the above (normal in this situation of regional/tribal/sectarian rivalry: at some point all these groups will have to face each other).
  • AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) against all the above (possibly temporary alliances with some, for example now against the Houthis who always have a priority as enemies).
  • Hirak (the strong South Yemen independence movement) against all of the above (with likely temporary alliances with some of the others). Hirak may have preferred former president General Hadi (a southerner) because he was a weak leader with no political base, hence not much of a threat to anyone’s aspirations.
  • Some smaller remnants of the once-potent pan-Arab and Nasserist and socialist movements. As well as a few other parties, including the party of Saleh. I even saw a Green Party listed somewhere: not sure if it refers to environmental concerns or the chewable ‘qat (gat). No significant influence now.
  • Throw in there a mix of various tribal forces and influences, just to make things more complicated and more interesting.
  • GCC against Houthis and maybe Islah (ex-Qatar which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood and hence Islah).
  • Iran against all the above (ex-Houthis and possibly other allies of convenience).
  • USA against AQAP (what else is new? And maybe against the Houthis in the future, but that would be a tough nut to crack).

IS or ISIS, the new kid on the block. It is showing some signs of life as well in Yemen: definitely against all comers. Unless they pledge allegiance to the silly but murderous Caliph WhatIsHisFace.

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]

Iran, Israel, nuclear Iran, U.S. Congress, U.S. Foreign Policy

Netanyahu’s Good Arab Proverb: the Dogs Bark but Will the Caravan Move On?……..

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“The Dogs Bark, but the Caravan Moves On: الكلاب تنبح والقافلة تسير” A very good Arab proverb.

“It is said that Israelis’ favorite philosopher is Spinoza. I approve. Iranian intellectuals are less able to speak their minds in Iran’s unfree media than their Israeli counterparts (though there is a price to too much frankness in Israel, as well), but one on one they are also level-headed and clear-eyed. I suspect Iranians’ favorite philosopher is Rumi. If so, again, I approve. In fact, I think Rumi and Spinoza would have gotten along famously. Unfortunately contemporary Iran and contemporary Israel don’t get along at all politically, which sets the stage for the Washington melodrama planned for March 3, when Israel’s belligerent prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, will address Congress in a bid to undermine President Obama’s diplomacy with Iran on their civilian nuclear enrichment program…………”

“The coming weeks will put the relationship between their countries, which otherwise remain stalwart allies, to one of its toughest tests. Netanyahu is bound for Washington for an address to Congress on Tuesday aimed squarely at derailing Obama’s cherished bid for a diplomatic deal with Tehran. At the same time, Secretary of State John Kerry and other international negotiators will be in Switzerland for talks with the Iranians, trying for a framework agreement before a late March deadline………….”

There is an excellent Arab saying or proverb: “The Dogs Bark, but the Caravan Moves On= الكلاب تنبح والقافلة تسير“.
It seems that the caravan of the Iranian and P5+1 negotiations is moving on, even as Mr. Netanyahu and his American groupies become more shrill. Even as they intensify the campaign against a deal aimed at avoiding yet another Western war against a Muslim country. Throwing all kinds of distortions at the media here, while inserting himself and his reelection campaign into a tense American political situation. Something no foreign leader has ever done, not with the connivance of a major American political party. Not in this century.

So, the dogs bark and will continue to do so, but will the caravan of peaceful negotiations keep moving on?

Here is what I wrote on this many long months ago:
“He has been warning them for more than twenty years now that the Iranians are only six months away from a nuclear bomb. From way back in the 1990s, when he was fear-mongering to win his first election, he claimed that the mullahs were about to go ‘nuclear’. I am surprised Europeans still listen to him (American politicians are different, they have their own ‘compelling’ excuses for listening to him). Over two decades, Mr. Netanyahu and his ministers have promised the world a lot of unrealized nuclear slam dunks about Iran………..”

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]