Monthly Archives: February 2015

Al-Qaeda, GCC, Yemen

Battle Lines in Southern Arabia: Bears in the Forest…….

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Here is where the Yemen situation stood yesterday (it is morning here, it could have changed overnight). Things move fast over there:

  • Former president Hadi escaped to Aden a few days ago, as soon as the Houthis allowed him free movement. Apparently he is trying now to establish a shadow authority in the south. He will have to contend with two powerful forces in South Yemen: the Independence Movement (Hirak) and Al Qaeda (AQAP).
  • Not clear how Hirak (movement to regain Southern independence) will deal with Hadi (someone called him Al Zombie, but not me). Not clear how AQAP will deal with him. Both strong in South Yemen. Not to mention his former partners, the Islah Islamists.
  • Gulf GCC ambassadors (at least Saudi and Qatari) will move embassies to Aden now. GCC Secretary General Al Zayani a Bahraini potentate, has already visited Hadi in Aden. The media showed Zayani, suspiciously reeking of Old Spice, smirking at the cameras. 
  • Houthis seem frustrated now by the turn of events, and it shows. Abdel Malik al Houthi (Americanized as AMH) spoke that Hadi was a Saudi-American stooge (perhaps because he was put in place by GCC with US blessing). He added that any ambassador who doesn’t like Sanaa is welcome to move (a no brainer but thanks for the invite). Adding that Saudi money did not help the Yemeni people much (that is true, it did not help the poor much). It would be more helpful if they allow Yemeni labor instead of restricting them.
  • There have been no reports that the American drone campaign against AQAP terrorists has slowed down by recent political developments. No objection has been voiced by Houthis or their rivals to continued drone activity, not yet.
  • Iranian and Hezbollah media are now moving faster in support of the Houthis. As the GCC moves quickly to set up their own acceptable regime in Aden. Would this indicate that more sectarian polarization in Yemen and the Middle East is to be expected? Do bears pee in the forest?
  • Yesterday‘s report from UN that deposed president Saleh had amassed $60 billion over the years seems farfetched (actually the figures are ridiculous). Yemen is too poor to allow anyone an opportunity to steal $ 60 bin. As I tweeted yesterday, even some Saudi princes may find it hard to steal $60 billion. I just don’t believe it. I believe the stealing but not the numbers: all Arab leaders are entitled to steal and they all do so.

So, back to two Yemens? Will the GCC start supporting the old Marxist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Arabia)? Or will we continue with about four Yemens for some time?
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Israeli-Saudi Military Alliance? Semites and Anti-Semites Going All the Way……..

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“The Iranian nuclear program has brought Saudi Arabia and Israel closer, according to a report in Israeli media. Saudi Arabia has now offered to let Israeli fighter jets use its airspace to attack Iran when necessary, in exchange for Israel making progress in the peace talks with Palestinians, a senior European source told Israeli Channel 2. “The Saudi authorities are completely coordinated with Israel on all matters related to Iran,” the European official in Brussels said. Using Saudi airspace means that Israeli Forces could strike Tehran at a shorter distance, without having to fly around the Persian Gulf…………….”

This from the official Iranian Al-Alam network, but it has been covered by other media as well. There is nothing really new here. Speculation about this has been ongoing since before the Wikileaks disclosures exposed the true ‘head of the snake‘. That was when they urged the Bush administration to wage a war of choice against another Muslim country. The Saudis have already prepared their people, the Wahhabi majority of them, for it. 

Their well-financed political propaganda has portrayed the Iranian ruling mullahs as Zoroastrian Sassanids bent on rebuilding the old Persian Empire. Their equally vast sectarian propaganda has succeeded in dividing Muslims and shifting the Arab uprisings of 2011 into futile sectarian conflicts, from Syria to Bahrain, with some poisonous influences in Egypt and Libya and Yemen as well. They have prepared their people well for it, as well as others on the Persian Gulf. The Iranians may also have helped push this narrative along through their intervention in the Syrian war and possibly in Yemen.

So, yes, it is possible and maybe even likely these days. There is always the prospect of implausible denial, and not for the first time. Yet they must also worry that the supremely self-absorbed Israelis will leave them ‘holding the bag’. They have seen the Iran-Iraq war, how it lasted eight years (The Economist initially stupidly predicted it would last only weeks). How it eventually led to what Americans call the First Persian Gulf War of 1990-91. They must have, since they also colluded in that long war through  money, weapons, diplomacy, and oil policy. They could have lost their kingdom and the two Holy Shrines, but for timely American intervention.

They have been flirting with the Israelis for many years now, these doctrinally anti-Semitic princes and their palace clerics. But they have never dared ‘going all the way‘, something we used to obsess with as young students. Now they may feel that they are ready to close the deal and ‘go all the way’.

(FYI: the Israelis will never dare wage that kind of foolish war without forcing some American participation. Even the spineless U.S. Congress would be upset, if only about the bill for the war).

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Europe, Islam

Islam at the Gates of Vienna………

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“The Austrian parliament has passed controversial reforms to the country’s century-old law on Islam. The bill, which is partly aimed at tackling Islamist radicalism, gives Muslims more legal security but bans foreign funding for mosques and imams. Austria’s Integration Minister, Sebastian Kurz, defended the reforms but Muslim leaders say they fail they to treat them equally. The 1912 law made Islam an official religion in Austria. It has been widely held up as a model for Europe in dealing with Islam………….”

It says “The law making Islam an official religion in Austria was introduced by Habsburg Emperor Franz Joseph in 1912“. Those were the days……..
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Caliphate, Jihadists, New York

The Caliphate and the Imbeciles of the Faith………

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“The FBI on Wednesday arrested three men from Brooklyn who they allege planned to launch terrorist attacks in the United States if they were not able to join ISIS in Syria. Abdurasul Hasanovich Juraboev, 24, an Uzbekistan citizen; Akhror Saidakhmetov, 19, a Kazakhstan citizen; and Abror Habibov, 30, an Uzbekistan citizen were all arrested and charged with conspiracy to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization. According to law enforcement officials, the men also planned to return to New York to commit an act of domestic terrorism if they failed in their effort to join ISIS. One of the suspect’s mothers supposedly took his passport because she was afraid he may join ISIS………….”

That is apparently the secret of the recent rapid quantitative spread of ISIS. An unlimited supply of marginal foot soldiers, lost expendable imbeciles who actually believe they have secrecy, privacy, and anonymity on the Internet and off the Internet, including at the mosque. The ignorance and/or blindness are breathtaking. Don’t they know? Can’t they read or watch the news?…

There is nothing in Islam, in either the Quran or Hadith, that requires the faithful to be stupid. Maybe the Salafi Jihadis have their own interpretation of the faith. Apparently stupidity and treachery are required parts of their core beliefs, otherwise who would join?
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Israel, Palestine, U.S. Congress

Hey , Anyone Remember the Palestinian Problem?……..

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Hey , Anyone Remember the Palestinian Problem?………..
The ‘what‘ problem?…….

Used to be that ‘the Middle East problem‘ was the Palestine/Israel issue. At some point, with the Iraqi wars (1980-2015) and Jihadist growth it became one of the Middle East issues. Now, well, nobody is talking about it anymore, not much. Not even many Palestinians, or maybe nobody listens to them anymore.

Only when Israeli leaders unleash a huge attack on Hamas-ruled Gaza, or blow up the homes of some Palestinians, do the world (and Arab) media remember the Palestinian issue. So, maybe Mr. Netanyahu is actually a brilliant strategist after all. He may have alienated the political and other classes everywhere outside the USA, but he has managed to downgrade ‘Palestine’ as an issue.

In Washington next month, in his expected old rehashed dishonest campaign speech, he may declare the end of the Palestinian problem, and he will get another standing ovation from his elected groupies. He may be right, but only officially.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
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Art, Caliphate, Culture, Jihadists, U.S. Congress

ISIS: New Song of the Caliphate, Unshudat al-Khilafa………

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My very own personal Jihadist source reports something new and unusual today. Nothing to do with beheading or burning alive or kidnapping Christians or Vegans.
ISIS (DAESH) is adopting a new anthem, song. They call it Unshudat al-Khilafa (انشودة الخلافة), hymn of the Caliphate. It goes something like this. Imagine that……

FYI 1: ISIS are not Chinese, but they still don’t believe in intellectual property either (or anything to do with intellect for that matter).
FYI 2: rumors the U.S Congress may be also considering adopting it, opening its sessions with the same song.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter
[email protected]

Arab Revolutions, Caliphate, GCC, Jihadists, Syria

Strategic Science Fiction: Unified Arab Force, Unified Arab Farce…….

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“As threats in the Middle East grow, there’s a pressing need in the region, Egypt’s President said Sunday. “The need for a unified Arab force is growing and becoming more pressing every day,” President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said in a televised address, noting that Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have offered to send troops as Egypt steps up its efforts to battle ISIS in neighboring Libya………”

Also sprach Field Marshal Al Sisi, elected president of Egypt by almost 98% of the vote last year.
They are now talking about a unified Arab force to fight the murderous jihadis of ISIS from Libya to Syria and Iraq. And possibly fight ‘others’ after that. From Arab politicians to Western media pundits and retired generals and even former CIA agents. Everybody is suddenly a strategist: a Napoleon and a Caesar.

There has never been an effective unified Arab force in modern times. There is a joint Gulf GCC force called the Peninsula Shield that was supposed to be a joint “defense” force against external threats. It failed its only chance to defend when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, by not showing up. The only ‘operation’ on its resume has been to intervene in Bahrain and crush the pro-democracy uprising there during the Arab Spring of 2011. This is typical of Arab armed forces: their priority is protection of the ruling order against internal unrest. We have seen this across the board, from Libya to Egypt to Syria and Bahrain and Yemen.

A joint Arab force to fight the Caliphate of IS? With actual casualties and body bags? Unlikely that the Arab countries can sustain the needed human costs. Besides the hesitation to enter, say, Syria and become sitting ducks between the two sides, the Jihadis and the Syrian army and its allies. Just imagine humorless Jordanian and United Arab Emirates troops facing two formidable opponents in a two-front war: skilled experienced and suicidal Wahhabi Jihadists and Syrian army veterans plus Hezbollah. The UAE, with barely 1 million citizens, reportedly has an imported foreign mercenary force for its own internal security. Just imagining the Emirates in such a battle merits a resounding WTF plus an LOL (and possibly an Oscar for science fiction).

The first battle might be the last one, a Waterloo. Besides, a unified Arab military force would be the worst thing to happen to the Arab peoples now. It will only lead to unified repression: one force with one strategy and one deadly force to keep the repression and the oppression going. Exactly what happened in Bahrain.

I suspect the push is more from the West, mainly from some hawks in the US. It makes sense to have an Arab force in order to “legitimize” action and make it politically acceptable at home, or so they think. The real action would be by NATO powers, a la Libya 2011. Some of the Arab princes and potentates are no doubt thinking of a post-ISIS phase, when they can ‘clean house’ in Syria and maybe in Lebanon. They have allies over here as well for that endeavor.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

UAE, United Arab Emirates

A Torched Torch of Dubai…….

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“More than 80 per cent of the apartments at The Torch tower that caught fire on Saturday are now accessible. A massive fire engulfed the 86-storey tower at Dubai Marina early Saturday morning. Out of 676 apartments, 101 are still inaccessible and the affected residents have been given temporary accommodation, Oman Insurance Company, the insurer of The Torch tower…………..”

If I were the owner of this building, I’d change its name quickly, from The Torch to something else, anything else. Provided I were superstitious. No need to push my luck.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Arab Revolutions, Yemen

Cross-Dressing Arab Leaders: Escape From Sanaa…….

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Reports tell us that Yemen’s former president General AbdRabuh Hadi escaped San’a dressed as a woman. This tale about “dressed as a woman” could be just an Arab urban legend. He escaped on the day his term as president expired, which is when the Houthis released him from house arrest. He went to Aden (South Yemen which is his native land) and promptly declared himself “the president”, although his term had expired and he had resigned. The UN mediator Binomar obligingly started to call him ‘president Hadi”.

This is not the first time an Arab leader reportedly escapes dressed as a woman. There have been others. For example, Nuri Al-Said (Pasha), former PM of Iraq once tried to escape from Baghdad dressed in an Abaya. In his case it was a real long shot: it didn’t work, he was caught and murdered by a mob. There have been past reports from Iraq that some Baathist leaders and generals may have escaped Baghdad in drag after the US invasion in 2003.

Anyway, what will happen now in his native south? The region around Aden is dominated by separatist South Yemenis (Al Hirak, or The Movement), Al Qaeda and other tribal elements. Will Yemen be divided de facto back to North and South now? In that case, Hadi will certainly not be the president of the South, he probably has no political base there. Al Hirak or Al Qaeda or both can eat him alive once they decide he is of no use. And he was VP of Salih in the North only because he was from the South. Besides, giving him the benefit of the doubt (just for today), nice guys don’t win civil wars……..

Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter

Al-Qaeda, Caliphate, Religion, Salafi, U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Politics

American Salafis: Agonizing over the Religion of Obama and ISIS…..

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“Not only does Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) not know whether President Barack Obama loves America, he also appears to be unaware that the president is a Christian……..“I’ve never asked him that. You’ve asked me to make statements about people that I haven’t had a conversation with about that. How [could] I say if I know either of you are a Christian?”……………”

First there were the Wahhabi Salafis: Al Qaeda and ISIS (DAESH). Now there are the American Salafis, those who can not only define who is Christian, but they can strongly hint at who is a Muslim in America as well. With a political agenda that goes beyond religion.
Now we are reminded that there is the American obsession with convenient political religion: is Obama a secret Muslim? Does the Muslim Brotherhood run the White House (with the token occasional Muslim or two)? Is Obama Christian (there are actually elected Republican governors and senators and congressmen who publicly debate and dispute that with a straight face)? As if it should matter. You never see the French agonizing over whether Nicholas Sarkozy is Christian or Jewish.

No doubt the world, outside the Muslim world, is reading and listening, dumbfounded and in wonder, at the current politico-religious debate in the only superpower left. Is Obama a Muslim or a Christian? Apparently Christian in America does not mean a follower of the teachings and example of Christ, not anymore.

Is America ‘Christian’? Were Franklin and Jefferson and some other Founding Fathers really ‘Christian’, in today’s retro-sense? I have strong doubts about that, as do others.

It seems that the United States of America is in the throes of a similar struggle for religious identity as the Middle East. And the bestowal and denial of religious identity is being used as politically here as back in the Arab World and the wider Middle East. Who is a true Christian in American politics? Who is a true Muslim and not part of a heretical sect in Islamic politics?

At least they are not beheaded or burned alive here for their faith or sect, not literally. And there is a solid bloc of wisened American voters who mostly vote sensibly, at least when it comes to electing presidents. Mostly but apparently not always.
Cheers

Mohammed Haider Ghuloum                          Follow ArabiaDeserta on Twitter