Hassan Nasrallah of Lebanese Hezbollah (to distinguish it from all the alleged Hezbollahs of Texas, Bahrain, Egypt, Finland, and others) is one Arab leader who shows supreme confidence in what he says. Possibly the only one: it comes from both his enunciation and his body language. He makes almost all other Arab leaders look like sweaty-palmed snake-oil salesmen (most of them are). That is undeniable, whatever you think of his ‘politics’. I have opined in the past that the Israeli Mossad probably regrets having assassinated the Hezbollah leader who preceded him, thus allowing him to move up the leadership ladder.
What he says now in an interview in the daily As-Safir is that: (1) the danger of Salafi terrorist bombings in Lebanon has abated because of ‘certain measures’ along the border in both Lebanon and Syria. Meaning that the continued Jihadist defeats in the southern front of the Syrian war have reduced the flow and the risks; (2) more important, he assures his audience that the “danger” of the Syrian regime falling has ended. He also added that the danger of a division of Syria has also been “overcome”.
He has also opined that both Northern and Southern fronts in Syria are improving. But he added what most people now expect: that the Russian position of support for the Syrian regime will solidify in the coming weeks. Probably a reference to the post-Ukraine relations with the West.
Essentially he is claiming that the Syrian civil war has been won by one side, the side he supports. All this is no doubt based on the outcome of the battles of the past twelve years. Yet predicting the outcome of a civil war is risky: this may come back to bite Nasrallah. Civil wars have a way of seesawing and surprising: remember when almost everybody claimed that the days of Bashar Al Assad were numbered? That was three years ago.
Cheers
mhg
