The talk and white noise about the Iranian nuclear issue seems to focus on such factors and clichés as “security”, “existential threat”, “Persian Gulf stability”. I said it “seems”. There is another factor that is huge, probably bigger and more legitimate than the excuse of security. I am not talking about the well-known strategic factors like the desire of Israel and Saudi Arabia to be the top powers east of the Mediterranean (well, maybe not Saudi Arabia, which is not really a military power by any measure, except maybe around places like Bahrain and Qatar).
The other issue that is not talked about so often is economics, as in petroleum, as in oil, as in even gas. The Western blockade of Iran and her oil has been a bonanza for the princes and potentates. As Iranian exports were reduced and the cost of delivery to consumers increased (insurance, etc), Saudi Arabia has become even more important for the oil market. It is a repeat of what happened during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s when exports of both warring countries were reduced and the other regional countries benefited. It is like the old depression-era idea of “beggar thy neighbor”, but with a Wahhabi twist.
That is the nightmare that worries the absolute tribal princes. Iranian oil fields have not been growing fast in the past years for obvious reasons. Whenever the blockade is lifted, Iranian oil will start making up for the big reduction and stagnation in output in the past three decades. Then there is the Iranian natural gas, possibly the largest reserves in the world. All that, coupled with the rapid recovery of Iraqi oil production, will reduce the importance of Saudi oil and weaken crude prices. It will also reduce the political leverage (call it blackmail power) the princes have over the industrial countries.
That is the gorilla in the palaces of Riyadh and Taif that is not talked about much openly in the royal media. I posted on this in the past, including in the post titled “Will Iraq Revise the Gulf Oil Equation?” , and a post titled Petroleum Chat: from Tehran through Baghdad to Riyadh and Caracas.

Cheers
mhg