“To see why, consider the lessons of other civil wars, which we assess in this week’s briefing. Syria is bogged down in endless killing. Early in the uprising, Western support might have ousted Mr Assad and preserved Syria’s sectarian harmony. That was what this newspaper at first recommended, but the West—and Barack Obama in particular—held back. Now, after more than 110,000 people have died during 30 months of violence, it is too late. Not only have many rebels fallen under the spell of Sunni fanaticism, but history suggests that, unless civil wars end in victory after 12 months or so, they tend to drag on for years. Like many civil-war leaders Mr Assad may prefer to prolong the fighting rather than risk compromise. The rebels, too, will battle on in the knowledge that surrender is likely to mean death. Hence the argument for a negotiated settlement that might bring forward an end to the fighting and spare Syrian lives. The effort is worth it—about 40% of civil wars end through negotiation. But the odds on success are already long. It makes no sense to insist on conditions that would make the talks still more likely to fail……………” The Economist
The Economist has moved back to the right over the past years. They are now more often eager for new Western wars in the Middle East. And by the way, their predictions are often wrong, have been for a few decades. The Economist has somewhat dumbed down over the years, but it is still better than most of its English language rivals.
The problem with the Syrian opposition groups is that they believed what they read in Western and Arab potentates media throughout 2011-12. They believed that Bashar al-Assad’s days were numbered. Hell, even some of Bashar’s subordinates and minions believed that and defected to the opposition fighting hard in five-star hotels in Turkey or Jordan or Saudi Arabia or Qatar. Even Bashar’s best childhood friend Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass got a haircut and defected to the free democratic ambiance of Saudi Arabia.
So, it is easy to see why it is hard for the opposition groups to accept that Bashar might be around for some time. I mean if you’ve been promised by ‘the powers that be’ to be crowned Miss Universe, it is hard to accept being the runner-up. If beauty contests are your thing.
Cheers
mhg