Neck of the woods
“The question of an attack on Iran has become the subject of intense debate over the past few months. What is puzzling about this debate is that it has not centered on Iran’s nuclear program or whether Iranians seek to obtain a nuclear bomb, but rather on whether Israel or the US (or both) will attack Iran to prevent this. The re-election of Barack Obama to a second term is important, yet the situation vis-à-vis Iran and Israel has not changed significantly. Iran still faces harsh sanctions and its economy is on the brink of collapse; nevertheless, its nuclear program continues to advance unchecked and the regime does not show signs of weakening its grip on power. Likewise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces elections in January 2013, but is likely to win a resounding victory; Iranians will also go to the polls in 2013 to elect a new president and Majlis (parliament). The outcome of these elections will neither change the overall threat Iran’s nuclear program poses to Israel nor the military threat Israel poses to Iran. Caught between the risk of an Israeli attack on Iran or an Iranian attack against Israel is the United States, desperately trying to avoid the outbreak of an Iranian–Israeli war, the consequences of which are unpredictable…………………”
Israeli politicians sometimes go to war before elections. They did it in Gaza two years ago. Mr. Netanyahu must be tempted to drag the United States into another Middle East war, but he will hesitate. He knows the USA will intervene to help his country if its war on Iran fails, which it almost certainly will. But Mr. Obama owes Netanyahu nothing: he gambled on the American right winning the elections. Obama just may let Bibi’s nuts roast a little on the Persian fire before intervening either to join him or to stop the madness. Besides, American and Israeli interests don’t always coincide, in spite of the election year political rhetoric. And nobody knows for certain the exact consequences of an attack on Iran on Western interests and economies.
The American elections are done, with the next round coming in 2014 (Democrats will most likely regain control of the Congress). Iran will hold two separate elections in 2013: parliamentary and presidential. Israel seems heading toward new elections soon. It is a safe bet that the Israeli and Iranian elections will not change anything: the right wing will win in both countries. Especially in Iran if the reformists continue to be persecuted and their followers demoralized. Israeli elections are somewhat less predictable: they are now between the right wing AND the extreme right wing.
Then there are the Saudi and Qatari elections: it is not clear who will win the positions of King and Emir. I think I was just kidding………..
Cheers
mhg
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