Neck of the woods
“Sons of Princes Sultan and Nayef hold the main posts in the ministries of defence and interior, respectively. The National Guard, which protects oil installations, is a purview of King Abdullah’s own branch; the governorship of the Eastern Province, a giant territory that contains nearly all the kingdom’s hydrocarbons, has been held by a son of King Fahd (Abdullah’s predecessor) for three decades. The recent reshuffle among King Abdullah’s siblings went more smoothly than many had feared; the shift to this next generation will surely be trickier. The kingdom is now a complex, diverse country far removed from the Al Sauds’ Bedouin origins. Lineage and loyalty cannot trump competence for ever. “The Al Sauds’ central nervous system has grown weak,” says a Riyadh lawyer. “They can respond to pain, but not to stimuli like complaints or new ideas.”……… There was no Saudi spring …….…”

Last year I wrote here on Saudi succession in a posting titled: “Saudi Legs and Bellies: Roots of Instability, the Coming Age of Warlord Princes”, sagely noting that:
“All this is part of maneuverings by various branches of the vast Al-Saud clan to position themselves for the coming death of the sons of old king Abdulaziz (Ibn Saud). Besides the various ministries, the senior princes have also staked out the various provinces as their personal fiefdoms. This province system also creates the potential for an eventual “soft” division of the country among the various branches (fukhooth “legs” and butoon “bellies”) of the al-Saud clan. Even the armed forces, the traditionally unified force within the Arab states, are divided into spheres of princely influence (Defense vs. National Guard). The Saudi system of power transfer is inherently unstable, and is very likely to become more so. The “commission of allegiance” (Bay’a) that was supposed to select the rulers reflects the rivalries within the family, which means it is as unstable as the family relations and rivalries. Once the last…….”

This is an ongoing process, with the balance of power shifting with each death of an old king or an octogenarian prince and his replacement with another octogenarian prince. With time the turfs are solidified, the borders of the fiefdoms become semi-permanent. The Arabian Peninsula will eventually become like a confederation of principalities each ruled by the sons and grandsons of one of the sons of the late Ibn Saud. Assuming they will last in power, of course (perhaps a big assumption beyond the medium term). Yet who will dominate the two biggest prizes: the oil-rich Eastern Province on the Gulf and the Hijaz, homeland of the prophet and birthplace of Islam?
Cheers
mhg
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