Monthly Archives: February 2012

Ali Khamenei, Iran, Israel, Middle East Nuclear, Saudi Arabia, United Nations International Organizations, US Foreign Policy, War on Iran

Khamenei on Nuclear Sinning in Iran and other Places……….

 

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“As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don’t believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb. A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003. The most recent report, which represents the consensus of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, indicates that Iran is pursuing research that could put it in a position to build a weapon, but that it has not sought to do so………. An IAEA report in November cited “serious concerns” about “possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program,” but did not reach hard conclusions. Another IAEA report is imminent. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted Wednesday that Tehran had no intention of producing nuclear weapons. In remarks broadcast on state television, he said that “owning a nuclear weapon is a big sin.”……….”

Ayatollah Khamenei just called nuclear countries sinners. Which confirms what I have been writing here, and what others have written: that they may acquire the technology but they will not actually produce a nuclear bomb. The mullahs don’t like sinning, I think. That is not to say there are no sections of the diverse Iranian regime that would like to sin, to develop nuclear weapons. In the end it is Ali Khamenei who is supposed to have the final say, provided that he knows exactly what is going on. I mean he can be calling nuclear weapons a sin, but some branch of his government may be tempted to try a bit of sinning (the flesh is weak after all). All this is contrary to all the whining by Israeli officials and Saudi princes, egging the United States toward another futile war in our region.
(The Israelis don’t really want a war, they just want to divert attention away from the West bank and their expanding settlements. The Saudi princes and their Salafi proxies, on the other hand, would love a war fought by Americans, or any other ‘heathens’, on their behalf).
Cheers
mhg


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Uncategorized

Friends of Syria Meet in Tunisia, Decline to “Liberate” Syria…….

   

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“The Saudi delegation withdrew from the “Friends of the Syrian People” meeting in Tunis over what it saw as the gathering’s “inactivity”, Al Arabiya reported. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal left the meeting after saying in a speech that focusing on humanitarian aid to Syria was “not enough.” “There is no other means but transferring power either voluntarily or by force. Is it justice to offer aid and leave the Syrians to the killing machine? ” he said. Faisal said that the Syrian regime has lost legitimacy and turned into an occupation-like authority. “My country will not take part in an action that will not lead to the quick protection of the Syrians,” he said………”

The Saudi prince also added that if the Assad regime does not fall soon, his king will order the National Guard, commanded by his son Met’eb, to cross the border with heavy armor in support of the Syrian people. Just like they helped the Bahraini people last year, he added. King Abdullah of Jordan, on hearing of this, immediately texted the prince “Which border are you talking about? Last time you guys crossed our border, you never left the Hijaz, annexed Mecca and Madina and then your king stole our custodial job.”
On an almost more serious note: I can’t wait to see Prince Khaled bin Sultan, the losing hero of the battle for Yemen, defeated by the ‘primitive’ Huthis, lead a blitzkrieg across the Syrian border. Only which border would he cross? The Jordanian or the Iraqi or the Israeli? Either one it should be fun, especially without American forces to back him up (the French and British don’t count without support from American forces, if you remember history).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Saudi Arabia, Syria, US Foreign Policy

Syria and Yemen and the Lions: the 100% Solution, the 99.8% Solution……..

 

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No doubt President Assad will not last in Syria, not if the alleged 6,000 killings are true. His father is reported to have killed many more in Hama, but we are not sure how many. Those were days of no internet (not outside the U.S defense establishment) and no cell phones with cameras. The opposition was not as media-savvy and opportunistic as it is now. Besides, most governments, including all Arab governments that now condemn Bashar, colluded with the father in covering up the alleged massacre. The father survived, nay thrived, after Hama because the rest of the world allowed him to.
This is unlikely to happen with Bashar. Not only there are television videos, no doubt some of them are fake or modified for international audiences, but there are other factors. Under Hafiz al-Assad (Arabic for the Lion Keeper) the political atmosphere in the region was quite different. Under Bashar al-Assad (Arabic for Bearer of Good News to the Lion) too many regional and international powers want a piece of Syria. The Iranians and Russians want to keep Assad in power because he is their ally. The Saudis and Gulf potentates want Assad replaced with someone who would be their ally against Iran. The West wants someone in Syria who would kick the Iranians out and switch their support in Lebanon from Hezbollah to the Hariri and the Falange militias. The West, and the Israelis, dream of 1982, when the Lebanese right-wing made an impossible short-lived deal with Israel and Reagan stupidly sent in the Marines, thinking Lebanon was like Grenada. They believed the right-wing Arab propaganda that the Lebanese people welcomed them (most did not, even more would not now).

So, what to do with Syria? The Yemen solution where the “new” president reverted to the true Arab election style by winning 99.8%? Or the Tunisian solution which is more democratic (so far)? Or the Egyptian solution that is not clear yet?
Syria will have to be different if a civil war is to be averted: it will probably have to be a consensus solution that gives everyone something to take home. Nobody loses too much: not sure about the Syrian people. The Iranians and Russians want the regime to remain; they don’t want to lose out. The Saudis want the regime to go and they prefer a new fundamentalist regime that is close to them: the princes can dangle the promise of a lot of money even their own people face tough conditions at home.
No doubt the next regime will be some sort of fundamentalist Islamic concoction that reflects the “current” mood of many, if not all, Syrians. It will be a Sunni regime, which will probably be hostile to both Iran and Israel, at least on paper. Until the Saudi (and maybe the Qatari) oligarchs present them with the political bill for “liberation”.
Well: you live and you learn.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Arabian Peninsula, GCC, US Foreign Policy, Yemen

Electoral Democratic Joke: Yemen’s 99.8% Landslide, a F–king Big Deal………………

   

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The election results were typically Arab: the vice president of Ali Saleh, the man supported by the Saudis and the potentates of the GCC and the democratic Western powers won. He won with a modest 99.8% of the vote. He was the only candidate. Even Ahmadinejad won less than 60% in that disputed 2009 election in Iran (but Ahmadcinejad was not appointed by the Saudis and the West). It was like electing the King of Saudi Arabia or the ruler of Bahrain or Abu Dhabi. Now that is, to quote Joe Biden, a fucking big deal!

Here is what I posted about it before the vote results:
“Yemenis, including Tawakkol Karman, winner of the 2011 Nobel peace prize, go to the polls. Tuesday’s election is the fruit of a US-backed deal that eased President Ali Abdullah Saleh from power in exchange for immunity from prosecution over the alleged killing of hundreds of protesters. Saleh’s deputy, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, is the only candidate………..”

Tawakkol Karman: “This is a day of holy joy!”
This is a Nobel Laureate speaking.

Is the lady out of her blinking fundamentalist mind? Had she been chewing qat? A day of ”holy joy”? So they were forced by the neighboring potentates to vote for one man, maintaining the power of the old regime.

The GCC, with Western support, have saddled the Yemeni people with a continuation of the dictatorship. Of course the potentates of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oligarchies would not want free choice for Yemen. So they have an election with one candidate! One candidate! Did anyone expect the Saudi princes to deliver democracy and freedom to the Yemeni people? When they refuse any mention of it to their own people? When you can vanish if you so much as mention freedom in Riyadh? And they call that travesty freedom? No wonder the Huthis and the Southerners are ready to resume their battle for whatever the hell it is they are seeking.
The Saudis, led by Field Marshal Khaled bin Sultan bin Technocrat bin Rommel were defeated militarily in Yemen. Their most expensively armed military was defeated by a ragtag tribal group armed with WWI and WWII weapons. Now they are trying to win their counter-revolution by diplomacy. It won’t work.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Libya, North Africa

Libya at a Crossroad………

    

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“The parade continues in Omar Mukhtar Street a few hundred metres away; there’s a toy shop in the street, and a family is hunting for something suitable for their child in among the pink tricycles and the shiny scooters, without even noticing the parade of weapons going by – that’s daily life in Tripoli. The ruling transitional council has banned firing into the air, but nobody takes any notice of that. They’re firing out of all barrels, with their Kalashnikovs, even with the anti-aircraft guns. It’s a clear message for the transitional council: many of the rebels don’t come from Tripoli, but from Zintan or Misrata. They’re showing their military muscle, to underline the fact that the country’s new rulers will have to take their interests into account as well.. The balance of power in Libya is fragile, and it’s partly based on who has the most firepower. Power in Libya these days is a limited commodity………..”

At least now a plurality of political opinions can be expressed in Libya, something unthinkable under Qaddafi. But they also have a plurality of armed groups with ‘shadowy’ loyalties. Now, can they switch from the guns to the ballot box? I have some doubts about that; the central government doesn’t look very ‘central’. I also suspect that many exiled Libyans who can help rebuild are remaining in exile; that tells me something.
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Counterrevoltion, Arab Revolutions, Cairo, Egypt, Salafi, Saudi Arabia, Wahhabi

Fifth Column on the Nile: of Bodily Fluids and a Kingdom of Frustrations……..

   

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 “This version of Islam is not Egyptian. Real and honest moderate Egyptian Islam has receded in the face of Wahhabi Islam coming from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. For thirty years masses of oil money has been used to drown Egypt in Wahhabi ideas. The purpose of this support for the Wahhabi school of thought is basically political, in that the Saudi system of government depends on an alliance between the ruling family and the Wahhabi sheikhs. Hence spreading the Wahhabi ideology reinforces the political system in that country. At the same time millions of Egyptians have migrated to the Gulf seeking a livelihood and have then come back to Egypt full of Wahhabi ideas……… As for the Salafists, who are more numerous than the Brothers, they stood quite openly against the revolution. Their sheikhs in Egypt and Saudi Arabia issued fatwas that demonstrations are haram and that Muslims have a duty to obey a Muslim leader, even if he is unjust. They asserted that democracy is haram because it advocates government by the people, while they believe that God alone can rule, not mankind. When the revolution succeeded in deposing Hosni Mubarak we found the Salafists suddenly changing their beliefs, forming parties and taking part in democracy, which had been haram a few days earlier. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists made a deal with the Military Council.……….”

So writes
Alaa Al Aswany about Egypt’s new/old political “elite”. Mr. Mubarak and his al-Azhar appointees helped to gradually convert Egypt into a quasi-Wahhabi society. Even the courts started handing down Wahhabi-style sentences not aligned with Egypt’s traditionally tolerant laws. They changed some laws to fit the Salafi ‘proclivities’, like allowing temporary marriages, vacation marriages, under-age marriages, and other exotic Saudi Wahhabi forms. You notice Salafi Wahhabi proclivities evolve mostly around “bodily” functions (and a lot of bodily fluids, both kinds of bodily fluids). Just to accommodate repressed male Saudi tourists who spend their holidays seeking ‘halal’ sex in Cairo (and Alexandria). Away from the Kingdom of Repression and Frustration.

(The Salafis also received a lot of Saudi and Gulf money for their election campaign. Which means they will likely always have a strong influence in the Egyptian government, as long as the money keeps coming. Which it will. A fifth column on the Nile).
Cheers
mhg


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Arab Revolutions, Bahrain, Corruption, GCC, Human Right, Saudi Arabia

A Bahrain Think Tank and the Joys of Tribal Wahhabi Liberalism…………

    

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“Manama: Countries keen on boosting cultural and intellectual relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries should appreciate that they are dealing with a new elite of thinkers, the head of Bahrain’s main think- tank has said. “They have received their education in the world’s outstanding universities and have become remarkable contributors in strategic studies and international studies,” Dr Mohammad Abdul Gaffar, head of the Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International and Energy Studies and Special Adviser to King Hamad Eisa Al Khalifa, said. “This new elite of intellectuals from the GCC states are different from the previous generation at the cultural and educational levels Britain dealt with during the early stages of the formation of modern Gulf states…………..”

Oh, yes: a special adviser to King Hamad al-Khalifa, the acting Saudi governor of Bahrain. I suspect
 that by “new elite of thinkers” he means the Wahhabi tribal faux-liberals who are filling Gulf media and academic institutions with writings and opinions of glorification of the Saudi princes and their sidekicks in Bahrain and around the region.
By
 “new elite of intellectuals” he is probably also referring to the fundamentalist tribal alliances that dominate whatever passes for politics on the Gulf these days. The only real politics in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are done in prison and in exile. The only true politics in Bahrain are done at the people’s protests and barricades and in prison and in exile (with armed regime thugs and imported mercenaries playing the incumbents). As for the Wahhabi “so-called” intellectuals, in some places they correctly call them tribal and sectarian sycophants.
Cheers
mhg


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9/11, Arab Revolutions, Iran, Iraq, NATO, Syria, U.S. Politics, US Foreign Policy

Asinine Views of Evil: What the West Thinks, What Muslims Think………

    

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“Of course, it’s difficult to ascertain the views of Iranians. State censorship is tight, and foreign journalists are rarely allowed into the country. Nevertheless, it is possible to make contact with some Iranians. And when you speak with them, you learn something quite surprising: Even if they oppose Ahmadinejad, their radical president, most of these Iranians still view their country as the victim in the current circumstances. They also view the West as an enemy and fail to consider or acknowledge that there are massive differences between hawks in Israel and doves within the Obama administration. “After 9/11, George W. Bush systematically portrayed Iran as the bogeyman. That’s happening again now. I have seen no indication that we are building a nuclear bomb,” says one professor in Tehran…………..”

The problem with many in the West is that they often try to think for others, often assuming anyone who is against a repressive regime automatically agrees with the West on all issues.
Take Iran and the nuclear issue: most Iranians support their country’s nuclear program even as many of them are opposed to the regime. Many of the Syrian “rebels” are probably more militant than the Assad regime about the occupied Golan Heights (John McCain and Joe Lieberman have somehow missed that one). Many, but not all, of these Syrians certainly are Islamic fundamentalists who have no use for Western values, although they’d love Western weapons and Western troops to help against their dictator.
After 9/11, George W Bush and the neoconservatives could not exactly put the blame where it belonged, on the one country that provided the ideology, the fatwas, the volunteers, and the money for the terrorist attacks. The Bushes and the Cheneys could not offend their pals the petroleum princes in Riyadh. They focused on softer targets like Iraq and Iran. Hence the nonsense about “Axis of Evil” (so far the most asinine catch phrase of the first decade of the new century) that excluded the Salafi swamp. The West blockaded Iran; the West liberated Iraq soon after it ‘liberated’ Afghanistan, before the West went on to liberate Libya last year and is thinking of liberating Syria later this year.
Many idiotic neoconservatives, other sanctimonious Republicans, and a few Democrats seeking reelection are now pondering ways to liberate Iran.
Cheers
mhg


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Espionage, Iran, Israel, Mossad, Mujahideen Khalq, Terrorism

New Delhi Attack: Mossad Mujahideen or Iranian Agents?…………

   

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“A week after the terror attack in New Delhi, which seriously wounded Tal Yehoshua-Koren, the wife of an Israeli diplomat, the Indian government is still trying to brush over the accumulating evidence that the attack was part of a wider Iranian effort to orchestrate multiple attacks on Israeli targets in different countries. To date, no Indian official has referred to Iran’s involvement. Sources in New Delhi explain that the government is concerned that its close relationships with both Israel and Iran are becoming incompatible……….”

The Israeli media propaganda claims “accumulating evidence” of Iranian involvement. There is no such accumulating evidence, mostly speculation. Meanwhile the Israelis “brag’ about their role in terrorist killings of civilians on the streets of Tehran.
The Indians and Thais have not pointed the finger yet. If there are any Iranians involved, they are as likely to be Mujahideen Khalq agents of the Israeli Mossad as being agents of the Iranian regime. It is the Indians and Thais who are investigating the incident, yet Israeli and Western media have already decided what that evidence is. Either one can be responsible, but I am betting on the MEK and the Mossad as the most likely culprits. Helping the Mossad may be the price for getting the MEK Mujahideen off the U.S. terrorist list.

Cheers
mhg


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Britain, Corruption

Ugh: More on Tony Blair………..

   

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“A short note on the presidential website stated that Mr Blair discussed a speech Mr Nazarbayev was due to make on employment, industry and housing issues in the former Soviet state. “I agree with your message and the large scale tasks which need to be put into practice” the Russian-language version of the presidential website quoted Mr Blair as saying. “We’re ready to work and present to you recommendations on successfully implementing these tasks.” For an £8 million a year fee, Mr Blair reportedly set up a group last year to advise Mr Nazarbayev. Mr Blair’s spokesman has previously said that he is not profiting from the deal. The spokesman also said that Mr Blair’s only involvement had been to set up the group and that he was not personally advising Mr Nazarbayev………..”

Cheers
mhg


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